Elon Musk Says Donald Trump Should Skip 2024 Race Was ‘too Much Drama’
US President Joe Bidens approval rating has bounced back to its highest level, leading his predecessor Donald Trump by six points from its summer time lows, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll has revealed.
Biden is leading Trump in a 2024 rematch by the widest margin since March, the poll said, adding that the presidential run was still years away and did not mean that Biden is the winner.
The survey of 1,634 US adults conducted from September 2-6 immediately after the combative primetime speech in which Biden blasted “Trump and the MAGA Republicans” as “extremists” who “threaten the very foundations of our republic”, showed that if the next presidential election “were held today”, 48 per cent of registered voters would choose the incumbent, while 42 per cent would choose the former.
Biden’s new 6-point lead is 3 points larger than his edge in the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey from late August and 4 points better than his average lead across all Yahoo News/YouGov surveys conducted between April and July .
The poll’s margin of error is approximately 2.6 per cent, media reports said.
The last time Biden led Trump in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll by 6 percentage points or more among registered voters was in March 2022 . The time before that was in May 2021 .
Notably, Biden’s support today matches those previous highs.
Meanwhile, more Americans still disapprove than approve of Biden’s performance in office, the poll observed.
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Trump Poll Tests His 2024 Comeback Map
The former president is targeting five swing states that are pivotal to his hopes of winning back the White House.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a September rally in Georgia, one of the five states that flipped to President Joe Biden in 2020. | Sean Rayford/Getty Images
11/23/2021 04:30 AM EST
As Donald Trump builds out a presidential-campaign-in-waiting, his team is focusing on an electoral strategy that relies on recapturing the five states that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.
The five states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin delivered a total of 73 electoral votes in 2020, enough to produce a decisive Electoral College victory for Biden. Since then, Trump has held four rallies, endorsed dozens of candidates and played a key role in shaping contests that could put his allies in top offices in those states in 2024.
Trumps shadow campaign also recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points. According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.
The poll numbers send a message to those who think Trumps grip on the Republican Party is loosening, said Tony Fabrizio, a top GOP pollster who conducted the surveys for Trumps super PAC, Make America Great Again, Again!
Poll: Most Democrats Say Ditch Biden As 2024 Nominee Trump Is Preferred Candidate Among Republicans
A majority of U.S. Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents want the party to replace President Joe Biden as its nominee in the 2024 presidential election, according to a Washington Post-ABC poll reported on Sunday.
Just 35% of this group prefer Biden for the nomination, while 56% say the Democratic Party should pick someone else, according to the poll. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 47% back former President Donald Trump for the 2024 nomination and 46% prefer that it be someone else.
In a head-to-head matchup, the survey found Biden and Trump essentially tied: Biden edged Trump by 2 percentage points, 48%-46%. Among registered voters, the numbers reversed to give Trump a 2-point advantage.
Democrats preference for a candidate other than Biden at the top of the ticket in 2024 also was evident in a July survey by The New York Times and Siena College.
In that poll, nearly two-thirds of Democratic respondents, 64%, said they would prefer a different candidate. Of that group, a third cited Bidens age as the reason for their preference. At 79, Biden is the oldest president in U.S. history.
Biden said in an interview this month with 60 Minutes that hell decide whether to run for reelection after the November midterm elections, which will determine whether his party maintains its House and Senate majorities.
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Lawsuits Around Trump Political Campaigns
- Lawsuit alleging that the Trump Campaign used mass, unsolicited communication of promotional messages that the plaintiffs did not consent to receive
- Thorne v. Donald J Trump for President Inc.
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The Fbi And Donald Trump
Results, interactive data, and methodology on American opinion on the FBI and Donald Trump, from an August 9 – 12, 2022 YouGov survey.
Results
Toplines: Results among U.S. adult citizens for every question
Tables: Results for every question, broken down by attributes such as race, age, gender, and political party
Explore the Data with Crunchboxes
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Select a survey question using the top purple menu.
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Use the red-orange menu in the top right to create a crosstab.
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Use the filter menu at bottom left to filter by age, gender, or education level
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Change the chart type or view a table
Methodology
How respondents were selected: From YouGovs opt-in panel, to be representative of all U.S. adult citizens
Who responded: 1,000 U.S. adult citizens
How: Online
When: August 9 – 12, 2022
How the sample was weighted: According to gender, age, race, and education based on the 2018 American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as news interest and 2020 Presidential vote
Related surveys
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Top Dem Super Pac To Party: It Could Get Much Worse
Biden has also publicly said he plans to run for reelection. The super PAC supporting him, Unite The Country, is similarly gearing up in the five states the Trump campaign has focused on, first with an eye on the midterms and then the presidential race in 2024.
Steve Schale, CEO for Unite The Country, said he had no reason to doubt Fabrizios polling for Trump as Bidens poll numbers have dropped for months. But Schale noted that midterm polling a year out is hardly predictive of what happens in a presidential election in three years.
There are historical headwinds were facing, that any president faces during a midterm: five of the last seven midterm elections have been wave cycles for the other party, Schale said.
He recalled that then-President Barack Obama won reelection after Democrats were crushed in his first midterm election in 2010, and predicted that, if Republicans recapture Congress, they will veer too far right and damage Trumps chances in 2024.
Still, after Democrats were humbled in Virginias statewide races earlier this month, Schale issued a memo to donors saying it was a wake-up call for the party and pledged a seven-figure ad campaign to tout Bidens accomplishments in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The polling from Fabrizio suggests that Biden could use the help. On 10 different issues ranging from immigration to gun control to the economy, Trump bests Biden in the swing states, often by double digits, according to the poll.
Biden Insists Gop Will Cut Old
A 2024 rematch between President Biden and former President Trump would be a virtual dead heat, according to a new poll from Emerson.
The survey published Friday found Biden with the support of 45% of potential voters, while Trump came in with 44%. A total of 6% would vote for someone else, and 5% are undecided a potentially decisive bloc of voters.
The poll also found voters split down the middle on the recent FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago, with 33% saying it made them more likely to support Trump in 2024, while another 33% said it made them less likely. The remaining 34% of voters said the raid made no difference.
As the midterms approach, President Bidens approval ratings remain underwater with 45% of voters approving his performance, and 49% disapproving. Still, the numbers are Bidens highest from Emerson all year and have been steadily improving.
A generic 2022 midterm House ballot showed voters equally divided between Democrats and Republicans with 45% each a steady improvement for Democrats despite record-high inflation.
Bidens increase in approval appears to be driven by women voters. Since July, women voters approval of the President has jumped 10 points, from 39% to 49%. said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling. Women voters support the Democratic congressional candidate over the Republican candidate by 10 points, while men break for the Republican candidate by 12.
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Approval Ratings And Scholar Surveys
Trump was the only president to never reach a 50% approval rating in the Gallup poll dating to 1938. The approval ratings showed a record partisan gap: 88 percent among Republicans, 7 percent among Democrats. Until September 2020, the ratings were unusually stable, reaching a high of 49 percent and a low of 35 percent. Trump finished his term with a record-low approval rating of between 29 percent and 34 percent and a record-low average of 41 percent throughout his presidency.
In Gallups annual poll asking Americans to name the man they admire the most, Trump placed second to Obama in 2017 and 2018, tied with Obama for most admired man in 2019, and was named most admired in 2020. Since Gallup started conducting the poll in 1948, Trump is the first elected president not to be named most admired in his first year in office.
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Trump Gives Out Lindsey Grahams Phone Number
Back in 2015, Trump read aloud Grahams supposed phone number at a South Carolina rally, after Graham called him a jackass for questioning Sen. John McCains war hero status.
Graham later recorded a video with IJReview showing him destroying a cell phone, all set to classical music.
But all thats in the past. Graham reported Tuesday that he heard positive things from Trump about rebuilding the military during their lunch meeting.
I had a great lunch meeting with President Trump today. He is strongly committed to rebuilding our military which is music to my ears, he said. President Trump is in deal-making mode and I hope Congress is like-minded.
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Early Life And Business Career
Trump was the fourth of five children of Frederick Christ Trump, a successful real estate developer, and Mary MacLeod. Donalds eldest sister, Maryanne Trump Barry, eventually served as a U.S. district court judge and later as a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit until her retirement in 2011. His elder brother, Frederick, Jr. , worked briefly for his fathers business before becoming an airline pilot in the 1960s. Freddys alcoholism led to his early death in 1981, at the age of 43.
Donald Trump attended New York Military Academy , a private boarding school Fordham University in the Bronx and the University of Pennsylvanias Wharton School of Finance and Commerce , where he graduated with a bachelors degree in economics. In 1968, during the Vietnam War, he secured a diagnosis of bone spurs, which qualified him for a medical exemption from the military draft . Upon his graduation Trump began working full-time for his fathers business, helping to manage its holdings of rental housing, then estimated at between 10,000 and 22,000 units. In 1974 he became president of a conglomeration of Trump-owned corporations and partnerships, which he later named the Trump Organization.
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Pennsylvania Poll: Fetterman And Oz In Close Race For Senate Shapiro Holds Big Lead Over Mastriano
With just over six weeks until the general election, Democratic candidates hold leads in both the Pennsylvania gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, according to a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll.
Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro leads Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano by 11 points, 53% to 42%, among voters who are at least leaning toward one candidate.
The race for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pat Toomey is closer. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, has a 5-point lead on Republican Mehmet Oz, 49% to 44%. That is within the surveys margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
Muhlenberg Colleges Institute of Public Opinion interviewed 420 likely voters in the state Sept. 13-16.
Chris Borick, a Muhlenberg College political science professor, said the results line up with other polls that show Shapiro and Fetterman in the lead. However, neither should be comfortable in their current positions, he said.
With our latest results, along with the other results out there, you get a sense that in general Democrats right now hold the advantage in two of these races, Borick said. But both races are certainly quite competitive when you look at the margins. You know, even Shapiros lead is fairly strong at this point, but hes polling in the low 50s. That is where you ultimately hope to be, but it certainly is not overwhelmingly comfortable.
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Read A Brief Summary Of This Topic
Donald Trump, in full Donald John Trump, , 45th president of the United States . Trump was a real-estate developer and businessman who owned, managed, or licensed his name to several hotels, casinos, golf courses, resorts, and residential properties in the New York City area and around the world. From the 1980s Trump also lent his name to scores of retail venturesincluding branded lines of clothing, cologne, food, and furnitureand to Trump University, which offered seminars in real-estate education from 2005 to 2010. In the early 21st century his private conglomerate, the Trump Organization, comprised some 500 companies involved in a wide range of businesses, including hotels and resorts, residential properties, merchandise, and entertainment and television. Trump was the third president in U.S. history to be impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives and the only president to be impeached twiceonce for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress in connection with the Ukraine scandal and once for incitement of insurrection in connection with the storming of the United States Capitol by a violent mob of Trump supporters as Congress met in joint session to ceremonially count electoral college votes from the 2020 presidential election. Both of Trumps impeachments ended in his acquittal by the U.S. Senate. Trump lost the 2020 election to former vice president Joe Biden by 306 electoral votes to 232 he lost the popular vote by more than seven million votes.
Views Of Donald Trump Four Ways
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,399 registered voters nationwide from Sept. 6 to 14, 2022. Questions regarding Mr. Trumps actions after the election and whether he has committed crimes were each asked of half the sample.
That level of Trump support has effectively been unchanged since the last Times/Siena poll, which was fielded in July amid televised hearings by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol. It was also fundamentally similar to levels of support Times/Siena polls and other surveys found in recent years.
The publics view of Mr. Trumps fight against the election results also remained largely unchanged, with 54 percent in the most recent survey saying his actions posed a threat to democracy and 38 percent saying he had just exercised his right to contest the election.
And roughly half of voters said they thought Mr. Trump had committed serious federal crimes, while 38 percent thought he had not. That was similar to the responses from July, when respondents were asked more specifically about Mr. Trumps actions in the aftermath of the 2020 election.
Mr. Trump has signaled another run for president. In a hypothetical rematch in 2024 with President Biden, 45 percent said they would support Mr. Biden, while 42 percent said they would support Mr. Trump.
I dont know too much, he said. When the race starts getting closer, Ill start paying attention, but right now hes just at the forefront for me.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
