Tuesday, December 6, 2022

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What Do The Polls Say About Trump

Poll: Nearly 60% Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Charged For Jan 6

NBC News Poll: Majority Of Voters Say Investigations Into Trump Should Continue

After three days of hearings examining the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, a new poll found that a majority of Americans say that former President Donald Trump should face charges for his role in the insurrection.

What You Need To Know

  • A new ABC News / Ipsos poll published Sunday found that found that 58% of respondents believe that the former president should be charged for his role in the Jan. 6 riot
  • The results of the survey are mostly divided along party lines, with more than 90% of Democrats saying that Trump bears a âgreat dealâ or âgood amountâ of responsibility for the attack on the capital, compared with only 21% of Republicans
  • Though the hearings have already attracted millions of viewers, only 34% of those surveyed said they are following the committee’s investigation, with just 9% saying they are following it closely
  • Whether the hearings will have an impact on the upcoming midterms is still uncertain, with around half â 51% â of the respondents stating that the hearings have made no difference in how they plan to vote in the upcoming midterm elections

The new ABC News/Ipsos survey, published on Sunday, found that 58% of respondents believe that the former President should be charged with a crime for his role in the Jan. 6 attack, up from 52% in an ABC News/Washington Post poll from earlier this year.

More than 60% of independents polled say that the former president should be charged.

Trumps 2024 Standing After The Fbi Raid

  • In the Aug. 10 survey, 58% of Republican voters said they would support Trump if the 2024 Republican presidential primary were today, the highest on record since his 2020 loss. The share of support is up from 54% in July and 53% in June amid the high-profile congressional Jan. 6 hearings.
  • Trumps improvement has come to the detriment of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose 2024 support has slumped 5 percentage points since late July, to 16%.
  • Similarly, a record-high 71% of GOP voters say that Trump should run for president in 2024.

New Poll Asks Americans Whether Trump Should Face Charges Top Midterm Priorities

About half of Americans think former President Donald Trump should face criminal charges for his role in the deadly insurrection that took place at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. But far fewer roughly a quarter think Trump will actually be prosecuted.

Since hearings by the House committee investigating the attack began in June, new evidence and testimony have revealed how much Trump and members of his administration knew about the potential for violence, as well as the former presidents embrace of his armed supporters and his unwillingness to intervene when chaos overwhelmed the Capitol.

While a majority of Americans overall blame Trump for what happened that day, public opinion remains divided down party lines, according to this last poll. Nearly all Democrats 92 percent and a majority of independents but only about one in five Republicans agree.

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

The final scheduled Jan. 6 hearing is slated to start Thursday at 8 p.m. ET and is expected to offer a minute-by-minute account of what Trump did and didnt do as the Capitol was overrun. In September, the committee is scheduled to release a report of its findings.

Meanwhile, federal prosecutors responsible for charging suspects related to the attack have also been watching the hearings. Unlike Congress, We do not do our investigations in public, Attorney General Merrick Garland said at the Justice Department Wednesday.

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Who Is Following The Jan 6 Hearings

The hearings are unlikely to be a factor in shaping Republican views because most say they are paying little to no attention to the investigation. According to this latest poll, 58 percent of Americans said they were paying at least some attention to the hearings, while another 41 percent said they were paying little to no attention, including 56 percent of Republicans. Democrats are the most reliable audience for the Jan. 6 hearings, with 80 percent following along.

Its almost an article of faith for a Republican to say, Im not paying attention to this stuff, Ayres said.

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No matter how earth-shattering these hearings are, there is also little to suggest they will inform the way people vote during the November midterms. In fact, only 9 percent of U.S. adults said it will be top of mind for them this fall, including 17 percent of Democrats and 2 percent of Republicans. A far larger share of Americans 37 percent said they care most about inflation, including 57 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents.

For Democrats, abortion ranked as the top concern. Following the Supreme Courts overturning of Roe v. Wade and the loss of federal protections for the medical procedure in June, 29 percent of Democrats and 18 percent of Americans overall picked abortion as what matters most to them.

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

Question23 Do You Consider What Happened At The Us Capitol On January 6th An Attack On The Government Or Not

What is Donald Trump
                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoYes/Attack on gov't  59%    29%    93%    56%    53%    66%    65%    49%No                   35     66      5     40     42     29     32     44DK/NA                 5      5      3      5      5      5      3      7                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspYes/Attack on gov't  63%    64%    55%    56%    46%    63%    55%    83%    57%No                   31     30     42     39     49     32     40     13     39DK/NA                 7      6      2      5      5      5      5      4      4

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Question1a Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Joe Biden Is Handling His Job As President Combined With: Do You Strongly Or Somewhat Approve/disapprove

                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoApprove strongly     18%     1%    45%    12%    13%    23%    27%    10%Approve smwht        18      2     34     16     16     20     23     14Disapprove smwht      8      8      6     10      8      8      6      6Disapprove strongly  43     87      5     46     49     37     40     58DK/NA                12      3      9     16     13     12      4     11                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspApprove strongly      8%    18%    20%    31%    11%    21%    16%    36%    18%Approve smwht        23     20     17     12     15     18     17     28     14Disapprove smwht     18      4      4      5      6      6      6      8     12Disapprove strongly  29     46     51     48     58     46     52     14     39DK/NA                22     11      9      5     10      8      9     13     17

Democrats Close The Enthusiasm Gap

Despite Bidens approval rating and the GOPs lead in congressional preference , the NBC News survey shows an improvement for Democrats since earlier this year.

For one thing, Democrats have closed the enthusiasm gap.

According to the survey, 68% of Republicans express a high level of interest in the upcoming election registering either a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale versus 66% for Democrats.

That 2-point GOP advantage is down from 17 points in March and 8 points in May.

The pollsters who conducted the survey attribute the increased Democratic enthusiasm to the June Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.

The Supreme Court ruling has shaken up the electorate, said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.

Indeed, the poll finds that 58% of voters disapprove of the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the constitutional right to an abortion, compared with 38% who approve.

And the poll finds that threats to democracy has overtaken the cost of living as the most important issue facing the country, and that the climate and health care legislation Biden signed into law last week is more popular than unpopular .

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Question5 Is Your Opinion Of Donald Trump Favorable Unfavorable Or Haven’t You Heard Enough About Him

                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoFavorable            39%    86%     3%    38%    43%    35%    32%    55%Unfavorable          52     10     91     49     46     57     63     35Hvn't hrd enough      5      2      4      6      5      4      2      4REFUSED               5      2      1      7      5      4      4      5                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspFavorable            26%    41%    45%    47%    52%    42%    47%     7%    38%Unfavorable          55     53     48     49     38     51     45     83     49Hvn't hrd enough     10      3      3      1      3      4      3      5      9REFUSED               8      4      4      2      6      3      5      5      4

Direction Of The Country

58% Of Americans In Poll Say Trump Should Be Charged For Jan. 6

HIGHLIGHTS

  • The percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction ranged from 43% to 20% during President Trump’s term, with a termwide overall average of 35%.
  • The percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction ranged from 72% to 43% during President Trump’s term, with a termwide overall average of 58%.
  • The direction of the country spreadthe difference between the percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction and those who felt the country was headed in the wrong directionranged from a net 4% to a net 53% who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction during President Trump’s term. The overall termwide average was a net 23% of Americans who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.
  • Direction of the country rating, 2017-2021
    Year
    -53%

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    Most Americans Do Not Want Biden Or Trump In 2024 Poll Finds

    News Nation/Decision Desk HQ poll shows majority believe duo should not run again but they dont know who theyd prefer

    Majorities of American voters do not want Joe Biden or Donald Trump to run in the next presidential election in 2024, according to a new poll.

    More than 60% of voters and 30% of Democrats in the NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll said Biden should not run again. Among all voters, 57% said Trump should not run again. Among Republicans, that total was 26%.

    But most of those polled do not know who they would like to run instead, either. The vice-president, Kamala Harris, and the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, were the leading named contenders.

    Biden, 79 and the oldest president ever inaugurated, has said he intends to run for a second term.

    Im a great respecter of fate, he said in December. Fate has intervened in my life many, many times. If Im in the health Im in now, if Im in good health, then in fact I would run again.

    His first term has been beset by crises, from the withdrawal from Afghanistan to the Russian war in Ukraine, and from the coronavirus pandemic to strong economic headwinds at home.

    The Republican assault on US elections and voting rights, led by Trump, has also played out during Bidens time in the White House.

    Trump has suggested he will soon announce a third presidential run, possibly as a way of avoiding potential criminal charges over his election subversion efforts and the deadly Capitol attack.

    The Case That Republicans Will Emerge Triumphant

    But there are also reasons the above theory might turn out to be wrong by Election Day.

    For one, there could be late movement in Republicans favor. So maybe the current polls are pretty accurate, but theyll later change, and the GOP will get an advantage in the campaigns final weeks. Late poll movement is a real phenomenon, as Hillary Clinton could tell you she led solidly through October and then collapsed after James Comeys infamous announcement that the FBI had reopened the investigation into her emails.

    We dont have to reach too far back in time for other examples. In 2021, Terry McAuliffe led Glenn Youngkin in public polling of the Virginia governors race all the way up to the last week of October, when Youngkin took the lead. Its difficult to disentangle why, exactly, Youngkin surged late. It could have been due to contingent factors or broader ones . But it did happen. The polls in the end were quite accurate in Virginia its just that they had changed from where they were in even mid-October.

    Additionally, much hasbeen about the Democrats advantage in ad spending in key Senate races so far, but one reason that exists is that Republicans have been saving their comparatively more limited resources to spend on ads later. So its possible that once Republicans do unleash their negative ads, the narrow leads some Democratic candidates currently have will disappear with late movement.

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    Tackling Migration Us Vp Harris Backs Investment In Latin America

    Amid predictions of a Trump vs Biden rematch in 2024, polls suggest voters want neither, but a new face with a focused agenda to repair the economy, the job market and control rising prices of groceries and gas, and eventually the 40-year-high inflation ahead of the winter.

    Odds seem stacked against the Democrats in the upcoming Nov mid-term polls, with President Joe Biden, First Lady Jill Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ratings plummeting by the day and with a wafer-thin edge over the incumbent President.

    The battle of the ballot is going to be over the Biden administration’s efforts to rejuvenate the economy and rid it of inflation, fears of recession, control soaring house rentals, properties, grocery prices, shortage of raw materials, scarcity of baby food formulas vs Trump’s ability to survive the tearing pieces of evidence of his alleged collaboration in assembling and inciting a riotous mob at the Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 to not to certify Biden’s election.

    However, how much of this is going to weigh in with the voters in midterms and in the primaries with the party members and funders for both the ex and incumbent is the big question.

    Just 13 per cent of voters of all kinds say the US is “on the right track”, while 77 per cent said it was “headed in the wrong direction”. However, Biden would likely defeat Trump again if the election were held now, the survey suggested, with 44 per cent of voters selecting him, compared to 41 per cent for Trump.

    Question9 Overall Do You Think Donald Trump Has Had A Mainly Positive Or Mainly Negative Impact On

    Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton Win Easily in New York Primary
                         ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoPositive             41%    84%     4%    45%    48%    35%    37%    58%Negative             51      9     94     47     44     58     60     36DK/NA                 8      7      2      8      8      7      4      7                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspPositive             33%    36%    47%    49%    57%    45%    50%    12%    37%Negative             56     54     47     49     36     50     44     81     51DK/NA                11      9      6      3      7      5      6      7     12

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    Question8 Would You Like To See Donald Trump Run For President In 2024 Or Not

                         ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoYes                  35%    78%     4%    35%    40%    30%    24%    53%No                   58     16     94     58     51     64     71     41DK/NA                 7      6      2      7      8      5      6      7                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspYes                  29%    37%    40%    37%    50%    37%    43%     9%    33%No                   63     56     55     57     44     57     51     89     58DK/NA                 8      8      5      6      6      6      6      2      8

    Time For A Younger Generation

    Most Republican voters think they already have the right candidate for 2024. Fifty-nine percent say Trump should be the nominee just 41% say it is time for a change in the GOP.

    That said, several Trump supporters in follow-up interviews expressed reservations about the former president’s age and persona.

    “He did some things that I liked,” said Tyler Geyer, 35, a mail carrier from Kenna, West Virginia. For 2024, though, “I would like somebody from a younger generation to run the country and someone who’s maybe not so bombastic.” He mentioned DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

    Democratic voters are more eager for a change in the party and a new face for the 2024 race. In the poll, 44% of them say Biden “deserves reelection,” while 56% say he shouldn’t run again.

    “In some ways, I think he’s doing the best he can with the mess that Trump left behind,” said Aaron Shissler, 36, a left-leaning independent from Pocatello, Idaho. “But in other ways, I just don’t think he does enough. I think he takes a lot of half-measures.”

    If Biden did run, “it would create a definite risk of a Republican victory,” he said.

    Biden gets credit from Democratic voters for having significant government experience , for having major policy knowledge and expertise , and for focusing on unifying the country . But one of his lowest ratings was for being an effective communicator and campaigner . Sixty percent predict he could win the 2024 election.

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    A Divide Over The Nation’s Top Issues

    The biggest problem facing the country today?

    Republican voters say it’s inflation, followed by immigration. Democratic voters say it’s gun violence, followed by climate change. Indeed, among the top five issues for voters in each party, the only ones that are cited by both are inflation and political extremism or polarization.

    “I would hope in this day and age that would come together as a party with the Democrats,” said Tantall, the stay-at-home mom from Michigan. “I keep saying this to all my friends and family: These people, I feel like they forgot who they’re working for ‘We the people, by the people, for the people.’ And I feel like that’s been lost somewhere.”

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