Joseph R Biden Jr Former Vice President
Mr. Bidens argument about being the most electable candidate is increasingly not the subtext of his campaign its the text.
But it wasnt until the closing portion of the debate that he said Democrats had to be mindful of who can win and bring some coattails to ensure the party reclaims the Senate.
Who has the best chance, most likely chance, of defeating Donald Trump, who is the one most likely to do that? he asked, before continuing: Who can help elect Democrats to the United States Senate in states like North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona and other states?
For most of the night Thursday, however, he avoided stating why hed be the Democrat most likely to win against Mr. Trump, instead trumpeting his knowledge of foreign affairs and boasting that hes running on his near half-century in politics. With my experience comes judgment and a little bit of wisdom, Mr. Biden said.
Mr. Biden had one of his better debate performances Thursday, in part because he was able to make a succinct pitch for his viability and even more because he watched two of his most daunting rivals in Iowa, Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren, tangle with each other.
Biden’s Rocky First Year
Biden currently has the unenviable task of steering the US out of the protracted coronavirus crisis, and the ensuing economic havoc caused by two years of global disruption, after running on the promise that he had the experience to solve such crises. On top of that, he must now lead the global response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A little over a year into Biden’s term about 42% of voters approve of the job that he’s doing and 52% disapprove, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker. Despite economic growth, a low unemployment rate, increased hiring, and wage growth, Americans remain very concerned about inflation, which has raised the cost of everyday goods like groceries and gasoline. Meanwhile, Democratic insiders acknowledge that the party has failed to effectively communicate its economic wins to voters thus far and that failing to hammer out a message soon could cost them in the midterms. These major issues could linger on for the next two years, and depending on how the public is feeling, could send change-hungry voters Republicans’ way.
Trump, who initially won the White House with a combination of racist rhetoric and economic grievances, would have plenty of discontent to exploit should he seek a second term. He also benefits from a conservative base that remains unusually welded to him.
China Dickerson, a Democratic strategist based in South Carolina, said that should Biden face off against Trump again, Biden’s victory would not be a sure thing.
Bet Founder Doubts Democrats Can Win In : ‘i Don’t Think That Group Is Capable Of Beating Trump’
Robert Johnson, the media mogul who founded Black Entertainment Television , expressed his doubts about any of the Democratic presidential candidates chances of beating President Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
“If you take a snapshot today, I don’t think that group is capable of beating Trump despite what the polls say,” Johnson, who also founded RLJ Companies, said in an interview with CNBC on Friday. The media mogul also said that the election is Trump’s “to lose based on his bringing a sort of disruptive force into what would be called political norms.”
Johnson argued that Trump’s unique “style” has resonated with voters, cautioning Democrats against getting “caught up in stylistic Trump.” He asserted they should instead focus “more in substantive Trump.”
” something that the president’s supporters like and the reason why they voted for him and will do so again next year,” Johnson said. He also pointed out that the president’s ability to “dominate the news cycle” gives him an advantage over his political opponents.
Johnson founded BET in 1980, with the goal of catering to a black American audience. As of 2018, BET was ranked as the 25th most-watched cable channel.
“It means that I’m going to speak my mind, speak in an independent way based on the facts and not try to get caught up in the politics,” he said.
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Would Republican Attacks Knock The More Moderate Candidates Down To Sanderss Level
One concern about our findings is that Republicans who say they would vote for Biden or Buttigieg might not really do so in November, after the general election campaign has heated up. After months of sustained attacks from Trump and Republicans throughout the general election, would the more moderate candidates still be more electable than Sanders?
To examine this possibility, we first conducted an experiment to identify effective attacks against each of the Democratic candidates. For example, Bidens historical support for freezing Social Security benefits undermined his support, but hearing about Buttigiegs sexual orientation and the fact that he met his husband online did not decrease his support.
Then, to examine the resiliency of each Democrats support in the general election in the face of effective attacks, we showed some of our survey respondents the three attacks that were most effective against each Democrat before asking them who they would vote for in a contest between that Democrat and Trump.
After showing three attacks against each candidate, we find that Sanders would still need the same large youth turnout surge to overcome his deficit relative to the more moderate candidates against Trump. When we analyze the data using the same approach described above that disregards what voters say about whether they will vote, we find that, after being shown the attacks, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Biden still do better against Trump than Sanders does.
Who Can Debate Trump Who Cares
Lets stipulate: The GOPs fall campaign will be vicious No matter who the Democratic candidate is, he or she will be lambasted by Trumps machine Every Democrat in the race has exploitable flaws Incumbent presidents, especially those able to cite robust economic figures, have an enormous advantage Trumps base is solid, so the election will hinge on swing voters in a few battleground states.
Thanks to cable TV, social media and zealous opinion writers like me, Democrats cant stop second-guessing themselves. When a candidate shows a bit of spunk in a debate, we pivot and enthuse that he or she can take it to Trump. Its not going to work that way.
Trump will campaign by holding raucous rallies and attacking via Twitter. There is no guarantee that he will agree to even a single debate a possibility his team has already floated. He has successfully ignored everything from releasing his taxes to complying with congressional subpoenas, so clearly he will play by his own campaign rules. Trump prefers dancing toe to toe with sycophants like Sean Hannity and Presidential Medal of Freedom winner Rush Limbaugh.
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Mike Bloombergs Money Can Buy A Lot But Probably Not The Nomination
Big business loves politics because sums that amount to pocket change in major industries buy big influence in Washington. Mr. Bloomberg is investing unheard-of sums in his race he has more staff members than any other campaign, and his ads are everywhere. That spending has quickly elevated his poll numbers.
But there can be diminishing returns on spending: In 2016, Hillary Clinton outraised Mr. Trump three-to-one and lost. Mr. Bloombergs record is dicey: He spoke at the 2004 Republican convention, praising George W. Bush and his war on terrorism. His stop and frisk regime was so brutal and discriminatory, it was struck down by a federal court as violating its victims civil rights. His presence supercharges the message from Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren that billionaires are buying our democracy. He could win enough delegates to be a player at a contested convention, but its unlikely he can win a majority and if the Democratic Party gave the nomination to a billionaire who supported Mr. Bush, it might as well shoot a big chunk of the Democratic electorate into space and hand Mr. Trump his re-election.
If Either Runs All Other Democrats Face Steep Climb For Nomination
ANALYSIS More than a handful of Republicans are already sniffing around the 2024 presidential contest.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Sen. Rick Scott and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are just some of the Republicans who might launch White House bids if former President Donald Trump doesnt seek a second term. And some of them might take the plunge even if Trump does seek the nomination again in two years.
The Democrats, of course, have a very different situation. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are incumbents, so the party doesnt have a long list of hopefuls for 2024.
Given Bidens age and his current standing in the polls, as well as Harris mixed reviews, thats not an ideal situation for Democrats.
First, lets deal with the obvious. If Biden wants his partys nomination in 2024, its probably his for the asking. Sitting presidents normally arent denied renomination.
The last serious challenge to a sitting presidents renomination came in 1980, when Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy challenged incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter. Kennedy won a dozen primaries, including those in Pennsylvania, New York and California, but Carter piled up delegates in Southern primaries and early caucus states, winning renomination comfortably.
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A Stable Race Is Suddenly Not
For the past year, the race orbited reliably around Joe Biden. He was in a tier by himself. Candidates in the tier below him traded positions and some dropped out, but nothing about the fundamental structure of the race changed. Mr. Biden may still bounce back, but the force he exerted on the race appears to be a thing of the past.
- Elizabeth Warrenexplains her priorities and writes, if we fail to use the months remaining before the elections to deliver on more of our agenda, Democrats are headed toward big losses.
- writes that without a U-turn by the Biden administration, voters increasingly motivated by fear over a variety of issues will generate a wave election like those in 1994 and 2010.
- Thomas B. Edsallasks, as the midterms approach, to what degree are Democratic difficulties inevitable, and which challenges stem from the partys strategic choices?
- Ezra Kleinspeaks to David Shor, who discusses his fear that Democrats face electoral catastrophe unless they shift their messaging.
What Kind Of Democrat Can Beat Trump In 2020
The midterms will answer some questions, but not the biggest one of all.
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Corey Lewandowski managed Donald Trumps presidential campaign for a year, co-wrote a book about it and keeps in close touch with Trump, as we were reminded last month, when The Times reported on a physical altercation between him and John Kelly, the White House chief of staff, just outside the Oval Office.
So I figured that his thoughts about the best Democrat to take on Trump in 2020 were as germane as anybodys.
He told me that Mike Bloomberg worried him, because Bloombergs personal wealth would spare him the distraction of fund-raising, and that Joe Biden had the right instinct when he said that if he and Trump had gone to high school together, he would have beat the hell out of him.
He noted that Beto ORourke, the Senate candidate in Texas, had impressively crossed the threshold of celebrity. Andrew Gillum, the candidate for governor in Florida, had caught lightning, too.
The right Democrat would need a talent for attention and an appetite for aggression, Lewandowski said: He or shemust be willing to go toe-to-toe with someone who I believe to be the greatest counterpuncher that politics has ever seen.
I love the sound of that. I also suspect its a doomed fantasy.
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Polls Point To Clear Top Tier
Joe Biden was the accepted frontrunner in this race throughout 2019. After serving as Barack Obama’s vice-president for eight years, he had strong name recognition and held a clear lead in national polls.
His numbers dipped at the start of 2020 though and Bernie Sanders overtook him in the RealClearPolitics national average after a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses. Biden, however, won by a big margin in South Carolina, which helped boost his poll numbers before he then swept the South on Super Tuesday.
No One Can Tell Us Who Can Beat Mr Trump Because No One Knows
All we really know is that the last two Democratic presidents to win were dynamic performers on the stump who inspired people with optimism and were able to assemble a broad coalition.
As a potential member of that coalition, the single smartest act of political analysis one can perform may be to step back from the data, and ask yourself a simple question: How do the candidates make me feel?
Adam Jentleson, a progressive strategist and former deputy chief of staff to Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, is writing a book about the Senate.
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Trump Is Finally Boring
Now lets return to Planet Earth for a moment. What happens if the Democratic Party through whatever leaders it has or even through a competitive primary effectively states: After 60 years of elevating a sitting vice president, we have decided to break precedent now that the vice president is a Black woman.
If Democrats do not appreciate the possible impact of that repudiation, they have only to look all the way back to 2016. The marginally lower turnout among Black voters in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee attributable to a relative lack of enthusiasm compared to the times when Obama was on the ticket was a key reason why Hillary Clinton lost those three traditionally blue states, and with them the presidency. Whatever difficulties Democrats will face in 2024, even a modestly disenchanted Black electorate would surely doom the ticket.
To offer the compulsory disclaimer: none of this is set in stone. Bidens vitality may get a boost if the national mood brightens, or new evidence makes the danger of a Trump second term compelling. If her prospects seem dim enough, Harris could simply choose not to run though recent polling, likely a measure of name identification, suggests shes the front-runner for the nomination if Biden bows out.
As it stands, however, Democrats are staring at three root conditions:
Can anyone resolve these dilemmas? Perhaps legendary puzzle-maker Ern Rubik after all, hes only 77.
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