Election : 77% Of Bernie Sanders Supporters Will Back Joe Biden But Majority Arent Excited About Vote Poll Finds
A new poll shows Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, can bank on most supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders come November, but a majority of the Vermont progressives backers arent excited about voting for the moderate former vice president, and a third believe standing up for liberal policies is more important than getting President Donald Trump out of the White House.
Almost a quarter of Sanders voters say theyll pick a third party candidate, wont vote, will vote for Trump or remain undecided, according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll released Thursday.
Eighty-two percent said they were aware that Sanders, who broke fundraising records largely with small-dollar donations in 2016 and 2020, had announced an endorsement of Biden.
The poll surveyed 638 Sanders supporters between April 18 and April 25.
Of those who will back Biden, 60% say they are either not very excited or not at all excited about voting for him. Thirty-eight percent said they were somewhat or very excited to vote for the Delaware Democrat.
Fourteen percent of those who voted for Sanders in primaries or caucuses say they do not intend to shift to Biden in November, the poll found. Meanwhile, 4% say theyll switch sides altogether and vote for Trump over Biden, and 8% would rather pick a third-party candidate.
Rep. Justin Amash, a Republican-turned-Independent, announced the launch an exploratory committee for a White House bid earlier this week.
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Sanders had more competition this year than four years ago. But when given the choice, it seems that many of the 151,000+ who picked Sanders in 2016 chose someone else when they had the option.
Sanders is hobbling into Nevada and South Carolina on a quarter tank of gas. And if New Hampshire is really good at picking presidents, Trump wins 2020 by wider margins if he is going against Sanders. Trump got nearly 50,000 more votes in New Hampshire than Sanders. That differential alone clobbers the total of votes former frontrunners Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden got last night in their totally embarrassing showings.
Bernie Sanders 2020 votes. around 4,000 more votes than Pete Buttigieg. This is not a campaign … firing on all eight cylinders.
For now, Sanders has the inside track, but if New Hampshire returns are any indication, hes vulnerable.
Sanders also has no fanfare for him in primetime on CNN and MSNBC. Tucker Carlson on Fox News is easier on him than Chris Matthews of MSNBC.
On CNN.com this afternoon, Trump stories lead, followed by Mike Bloomberg getting an endorsement from three African-American lawmakers and ex-Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick dropping out of the race. Bet: 90% of the population had no idea Deval Patrick was even in the race. Takeway: wheres Bernie? He just won the first primary of 2020. Instead, Bloomberg and Patrick lead.
FiveThirtyEight projects Sanders to win as of Wednesday.
Takeaways From The 2021 Elections
A G.O.P. pathway in Virginia.The win by Glenn Youngkin, who campaigned heavily in the governors race on education and who evaded the shadow of Donald Trump, could serve as a blueprint for Republicans in the midterms.
Mixed results for Democrats in cities.Voters in Minneapolis rejected an amendment to replace the Police Department while progressives scored a victory in Bostons mayoral race.
To be sure, the Democratic left is not necessarily excited to support Mr. Biden. Only 21 percent of Sanders voters and 40 percent of Warren supporters say they have a very favorable view of him, compared with the 77 percent of Biden backers who say they do. By 69-26, Sanders supporters say their vote is more a vote against Mr. Trump than a vote for Mr. Biden. Warren supporters also say its mainly a vote against the president, by a margin of 61 percent to 36 percent.
As the Biden team mulls a vice-presidential selection, one important consideration will be whether the relatively tepid level of enthusiasm he has generated poses a serious risk to his campaign. For now, opposition to Mr. Trump has largely overwhelmed whatever reservations these voters have about Mr. Biden, especially among Ms. Warrens supporters.
Even so, respondents who said they supported Mr. Biden in the general election were just as likely as President Trumps supporters to say they were very enthusiastic or almost certain to vote.
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More Sanders Voters Backed Clinton Than Her Own Supporters Backed Obama
15% of Clinton supporters voted for McCain in 2008, just 6% of Sanders voters backed Trump in 2016.
One of the underlying criticisms made by die-hard Clinton fans and many in the news media is that too many supporters of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders voted for Donald Trump. As the argument went his group of supporters were automatically supposed to vote for the Democratic candidate and Jill Stein supporters and somehow half of right-leaning Libertarian Gary Johnson voters. Leaving out the discussion on the ridiculous Libertarian voters for Clinton argument, it begged an interesting question: Did it make a difference?
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For example, Schaffner tells NPR that around 12 percent of Republican primary voters ended up voting for Clinton. And according to one 2008 study, around 25 percent of Clinton primary voters in that election ended up voting for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the general.
All of that said, one other figure that stuck out to Schaffner: Compared with those numbers above, Clinton 2016 voters were remarkably loyal “I found basically no Clinton primary voters who voted for Trump,” he told NPR in an email.
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When will it end?
Data like this might seem like yet another step in what will be an endless 2016 election relitigation. And it’s true that there is bound to be plenty more in the coming months and years particularly as Clinton releases her memoir on the campaign next month.
All of the unusual factors in election 2016 the first female major-party candidate, the first major-party candidate with no military or elected-office experience combined with the election’s surprises that there were actually a number of Obama voters who went for Trump, that the far-better-funded candidate lost, that the Republicans essentially torched the playbook they wrote after they lost in 2012 mean that there are plenty of questions to answer in coming years.
Many Progressive Voters Told The Independent They Dont Have The Privilege This Year To Use Their Ballot As A Protest Against The Democratic Party Establishment
Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile
Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile
Maggie Gates made it abundantly clear: she wasnt going to begrudgingly vote for Joe Biden the way she did for Hillary Clinton back in 2016.
A 22-year-old progressive, the Washington resident said she felt detached from the Democratic Party during an interview in late March, as the novel coronavirus swept through the United States. If the Democrats werent willing to put forward a progressive stalwart like Bernie Sanders to confront the crisis, Gates said at the time, she would refuse to support the partys presidential nominee.
But then something changed.
Since I last spoke to you, many problems have escalated obviously, Gates said in a text a week before the election. The stakes are higher now and I cannot imagine living under four more years of Trump.
Over the past year, The Independent has profiled voters in all 50 states as well as Washington, DC and Puerto Rico as part of the weekly series Polarized: Voices From Across America. The purpose of the project was to explore the nations political divisions, the reasons for them and how they can be overcome, and to get a better sense of where Americans like Gates stood on the burning issues of the day.
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Bernie Sanders Voters Helped Trump Win And Here’s Proof
Bernie Sanders supporters switched their allegiance to Donald Trump in large enough numbers last November to sway the election for the real estate billionaire, according to an analysis of voter data released Tuesday by the blog Political Wire. Since Trump’s shock victory over Hillary Clinton, much discussion has focused on the degree to which passionate Sanders supporters’ refusal to embrace Clinton led to the Republican winding up in the White House.
According to the analysis of the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, fewer than 80 percent of those who voted for Sanders, an independent, in the Democratic primary did the same for Clinton when she faced off against Trump a few months later. What’s more, 12 percent of those who backed Sanders actually cast a vote for Trump.
Some asked for more detail on how Sanders primary voters behaved in general. This graphic shows this, including small % who abstained 2/n
The impact of those votes was significant. In each of the three states that ultimately swung the election for TrumpMichigan, Wisconsin and PennsylvaniaTrump’s margin of victory over Clinton was smaller than the number of Sanders voters who gave him their vote.
Sanders -> Trump voters
G. Elliott Morris
Not As Many Bernie Or Bust Voters As Feared
One of the many specters hanging over the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination is the fear that the competition will get so intense that supporters of defeated candidates will stay home next November or vote for minor-party candidates or even for The Evil One. Fairly or not, this concern is particularly associated with supporters of Bernie Sanders. In part thats probably because of the crusading nature of his 2016 and 2020 campaigns, which however civil they have been, have regularly if implicitly suggested that rivals are corrupt or timid. But theres some empirical evidence that after the intermittently bitter 2016 primary fight with Hillary Clinton, a significant number of Sanders voters cast general election ballots for Donald Trump .
One national survey from Emerson College in April found a quarter of Sanders supporters claiming theyd vote for Trump over Elizabeth Warren . And its not hard to find individual Sanders bravos proclaiming to the world that its their way or the highway in 2020.
But now Nate Silver has taken a fresh look at the issue from the perspective not of hypothetic votes in a distant general election, but in terms of intensity and exclusivity of support for a candidate in the Democratic field:
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Did Enough Bernie Sanders Supporters Vote For Trump To Cost Clinton The Election
On Tuesday night, Sen. Bernie Sanders was in Detroit to host a town hall meeting with Rep. John Conyers Jr. . It felt, writes The Washington Posts Dave Weigel, like a campaign rally. Indeed, Sanders is still being discussed as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2020.
New data is shedding light, however, on Sanderss role in the last election and on how many Sanders voters ended up supporting Trump. Its a question many in the party will be asking about a candidate who may want to compete again for the Democratic nomination.
How many Sanders voters voted for Donald Trump?
Two surveys estimate that 12 percent of Sanders voters voted for Trump. A third survey suggests it was 6 percent.
First, the political scientist Brian Schaffner analyzed the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which was conducted by YouGov and interviewed 64,600 Americans in October-November 2016. In that survey, Schaffner found that 12 percent of people who voted in the primary and reported voting for Sanders also voted in November and reported voting for Trump.
Schaffner examined only voters whose turnout in the primary and general election could be validated using voter file data. This excludes people who said they voted but actually did not although it also excludes people who voted in caucuses or party-run primaries, for which validated turnout data are not as readily available.
How does this compare to other elections?
What kinds of Sanders voters supported Trump?
An Updating Tally Of How Often Every Member Of The House And The Senate Votes With Or Against The President
|How often Sanders votes in line with Trumps position||Trump marginTrumps share of the vote in the 2016 election in the members state or district minus Clintons||Predicted scoreHow often Sanders is expected to support Trump based on Trumps 2016 margin||Trump plus-minusDifference between Sanderss actual and predicted Trump-support scores|
|How often Sanders votes in line with Trumps position||16.1%|
|Trump marginTrumps share of the vote in the 2016 election in the members state or district minus Clintons||-26.4|
|How often Sanders is expected to support Trump based on Trumps 2016 margin||22.1%|
|Difference between Sanderss actual and predicted Trump-support scores||-6.0|
Members likelihood of agreement scores on each vote are calculated using a regression for which the input is Trumps 2016 vote margin in every members state or district and the output is the probability that a member will vote for the bill. The plus-minus on each vote is the difference between the members vote and the likelihood of agreement. Averages do not include missed votes. How this works »
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Nearly Quarter Of Sanders Supporters Will Vote For Trump
Nearly a quarter of those who support Sen. Bernie Sanders for president will vote for presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the general election while almost half of them will not support Hillary Clinton in November, according to a recent Bloomberg Politics poll.
MSNBCs Steve Kornacki discussed the poll on air Wednesday and how it could pose a major problem for Clinton going forward on the campaign trail.
Kornacki first explained that Sanders received 13,343,017 votes during the Democratic primary, or 43 percent of the total votes, and Clinton received 17,177064 votes for 55 percent of the total.
“So how many of those 13 million are going to be on board for Hillary Clinton?” Kornacki asked before showing the results of the Bloomberg poll.
The results show that only 55 percent of Sanders supporters will vote for Clinton in the general election.
“Thats not a very high number. Thats not the number the Clinton campaign and Democrats want to see,” Kornacki said.
Kornacki compared that figure to the 22 percent of Sanders voters who, according to the Bloomberg poll, will vote for Trump in November.
“You see 22 percent. Thats nearly a quarter, nearly a quarter of Bernie Sanders supporters, right now at least, saying Donald Trump would be their candidate this fall,” Kornacki said emphatically.
The poll also shows former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Partys presidential nominee, picking up 18 percent of Sanders supporters.