Trump Probably Needs To Win Pennsylvania To Have A Shot At Victory
To get a sense of where the polls are, lets start off with a scenario where Biden and Trump each win everywhere theyre up by 4 percentage points or more, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling averages.
In this scenario, Biden would win the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That would be enough for him to win the presidency without needing any of the toss-up states that polling averages show being closer .
So Trump very much needs to find weak spots in this map. And, understandably, hes focused on the same weak spots that were in Democrats blue wall in 2016 Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The final polls showed Hillary Clinton winning all three of those states, but Trump won them all instead, each by a margin less than 1 percentage point. However, Bidens poll leads in each state are bigger than Clintons leads were in 2016.
In, Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden leads by about 8 percentage points in the FiveThirtyEightaverages. The RealClearPoliticsaverages show it a bit closer, with Bidens lead at 5 to 6 points in each. But basically, Trump has to hope for a fairly large polling miss to put him in contention in either state.
So if something were to go wrong for Joe Biden, it would probably entail a loss in Pennsylvania. Conversely, if Biden wins Pennsylvania, hes likely won the presidency as well.
Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
Trump Has Talked With Some Of His Potential Scotus Nominees
From CNN’s Nikki Carvajal
President Trump has already spoken with some of the women on his shortlist to fill Ruth Bader Ginsburgs seat on the Supreme Court, the President said Monday, adding that hed like to see a vote on his pick before the election.
Trump, who also told reporters at the White House he would announce the pick Friday or Saturday, said five women are being vetted and looked at very carefully, some of which he spoke with today and yesterday, and the day before.
Asked if he would meet with all the women in person, Trump responded, I dont know, I doubt it. But well meet with a few probably.
One of those women may be Barbara Lagoa, who lives in the Miami area where Trump will visit this weekend.
I may, Trump said, when asked if he would meet with Lagoa. Shes a highly thought of. Got a lot of support. Im getting lot of phone calls from a lot of people. I dont know her but I hear shes outstanding.
A confirmation timeline: Trump said he would much rather have a vote before the election because theres a lot of work to be done and Id much rather have it.
We have plenty of time to do it. I mean theres really a lot of time, he said. Lets say I make the announcement on Saturday. Theres a great deal of time before the election. Thatll be up to Mitch and the Senate. But Id certainly much rather have the vote. I think it sends a good signal. And its solidarity and lots of other things.
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Six Months Into 2020 Here’s Where Trump And Biden Stand In The Polls
The presidential election is only four months away and President Donald Trump appears to be looking at another underdog battle for the presidency, this time against presumptive Democratic Nominee Joe Biden.
Three polls published within the past 10 days all put Biden ahead of Trump in the general election by anywhere from eight percentage points to 14 percentage points. Polls also put Trump trailing the former vice president in Missouri, where he won by a large margin in 2016, and in six swing states that were key to his 2016 victory.
A New York Times/Siena poll released on June 24 put Biden 14 percentage points ahead of Biden. Of the 1,337 registered voters polled, 50 percent said they would vote for Biden if the election was held today and 36 percent would cast their ballot for Trump. Biden was also a favorite among independent voters, who said they would vote for him over Trump by a margin of 21 percentage points.
Biden leads with every demographic aside from the 50- to 64-year-olds, according to the poll, but when it comes to party loyalty, the two candidates are equals. Both Biden and Trump are leading their competitor with their party’s voters by 85 percentage points.
In a slightly more recent poll released by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist on Friday, Biden had a slimmer advantage over Trump. Biden had an eight percentage point lead over Trump, a one percentage point increase in the gap the same poll found on June 5.
False Claims Of Fraud
Trump and a variety of his surrogates and supporters made a series of observably false claims that the election was fraudulent. Claims that substantial fraud was committed have been repeatedly debunked. On November 9 and 10, The New York Times called the offices of top election officials in every state all 45 of those who responded said there was no evidence of fraud. Some described the election as remarkably successful considering the coronavirus pandemic, the record turnout, and the unprecedented number of mailed ballots. On November 12, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued a statement calling the 2020 election “the most secure in American history” and noting “here is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.”
One week after the election, Republican Philadelphia city commissioner Al Schmidt said he had not seen any evidence of widespread fraud, stating, “I have seen the most fantastical things on social media, making completely ridiculous allegations that have no basis in fact at all and see them spread.” He added that his office had examined a list of dead people who purportedly voted in Philadelphia but “not a single one of them voted in Philadelphia after they died.” Trump derided Schmidt, tweeting, “He refuses to look at a mountain of corruption & dishonesty. We win!”
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Trump Was Unpopular In The Fall But Got Elected Anyway Does His Standing In Polls Matter
Yes, it does, especially to members of Congress.
In the fall, Trump was running against a Democrat, Hillary Clinton, who was also very unpopular. A significant bloc of voters disliked both of them, and a majority of those voters made up their minds for Trump.
The situation has changed: Now polls are a straight-up gauge of Trumps standing, and he, of course, wont face voters again until 2020. But members of the House, and one-third of the Senate, will be up for election in just over 17 months.
Historically, when presidents are unpopular, voters in midterm elections turn to candidates of the opposing party to act as a check on the White House.
What We Covered Here
- SCOTUS fight: President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden sparred over the timing of the Senate vote on a nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, as the open seat becomes a new flashpoint in the 2020 race. Trump said he will announce his pick Friday or Saturday.
- On the campaign trail: Trump visited to Ohio today, where he spoke at a “Workers for Trump” event and held a rally. Biden spoke in Wisconsin.
- Election 101: CNN’s got answers to your questions about the crucial event and how Covid-19 is reshaping the process. Read up here.
Our live coverage has ended. Read more about the 2020 election here.
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Can The Polls Lie
Ryan Hurl, assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto in Scarborough, said the polls show that Biden is in a better position than Clinton was in 2016.
But there is still an outside possibility that were dealing with the biggest shy Tory event in modern history, he said.
The shy Tory is when conservative voters sometimes dont tell the truth about their voting preferences, Hurl explained. This has also been called the shy Trump effect, which is when Trump supporters are too shy to admit they back him.
This might be happening and you can understand how that could be. This is an era of distrust in institutions and that can extend to polling, such as people not answering polls or deliberately being deceptive, he added.
Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, said there is always a chance that Trump can still win, as people may change their minds when voting or have been dishonest to pollsters.
It does look like Biden is going to win, but we were surprised in 2016, Young said.
What Are The Polls Predicting
Polling across the board is widely expected a run-off between Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen.
Mr Macron is expected to win another term in office – but this is no guarantee.
The current president himself is proof of the potential for an upset, shaking up the political scene in 2017 when he ran without the backing of a major party and won.
Ms Le Pen, on the other hand, has been hard at work trying to sanitise the image of her anti-immigration far-right party.
This is her third bid to become president, and her persistent popularity is worrying for those toward the left.
This week, another far-right candidate entered the already full fray, in the form of TV pundit Eric Zemmour.
Mr Zemmour took to social media to announce his intention to run, saying he planned to take destiny in his hands as now is not the time to reform France anymore, but to save it”.
The former journalist, who has been likened to Donald Trump for his populist politics and divisive rhetoric, said he wanted to “make French people feel French again and not like foreigners on their own territory”.
At the end of the 15-minute video, he unveiled his brand-new campaign website for 2022 which highlighted his five policy priorities for France: identity, education, taxes, industry and independence.
The candidate is polling behind Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen on 14 percent, still making him the third-biggest contestant in today’s polling.
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Whats Driving Trumps Numbers Down
We dont really know. Polls, as snapshots in time, cant readily track peoples reasons for changing their minds. But the timing gives us some strong clues.
Trumps slide began around the time the House started to debate the latest version of the GOP healthcare bill. We know from separate polling that Trumpcare, as Democrats call it, is extremely unpopular.
Odds are that the healthcare bill has played a big role in Trumps slide.
Firing FBI Director James B. Comey and the appointment of Robert S. Mueller III as special counsel to oversee the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election surely didnt help Trumps standing. But while those events got a lot of headlines, the voters who follow that kind of news tend to be people who pay a lot of attention to politics. Most of them already have strong opinions of Trump and arent likely to change.
Healthcare, by contrast, touches the lives of a lot of people who dont pay attention to politics. Theyre the voters more likely to change their minds.
Polls Had Trump Stewing And Lashing Out At His Own Campaign
The president erupted recently at his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, after seeing polling data that showed Mr. Trump trailing Joe Biden in several states.
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Frustrated by a faltering economy that is out of his control, and facing blowback for his suggestion that disinfectants could potentially combat the coronavirus, President Trump had sunk to one of his lowest points in recent months last week. And he directed his anger toward the one area that is most important to him: his re-election prospects.
Mr. Trump, according to multiple people familiar with the exchange, erupted during a phone call with his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, two days after he was presented with polling data from his campaign and the Republican National Committee that showed him trailing Joseph R. Biden Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee, in several crucial states.
I love you, too, Mr. Parscale replied, according to the people briefed on the call.
The call was first reported by CNN.
The lack of easy options to reset his political trajectory has been deeply unsettling to Mr. Trump, who began the year confident about his re-election prospects because of a thriving economy, but whose performance on the virus has Republicans nervous about losing the White House and the Senate in November.
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Where Does Trump Really Stand With Voters One Year Out
Todays polling data cant tell us exactly what to expect on Election Day in 2020. Events are moving too quickly and on too many frontsimpeachment, the economy, and foreign policy, with potential blockbuster court cases looming on hot-button issues relating to health care, immigration, and perhaps even abortionfor us to have a clear sense of where the electorate will be a year from now.
But we do already know some of the electoral math that will be decisive in next years outcome: 85-plus percent of Republicans appear solid for Trump and 90-plus percent of Democrats appear willing to support the Democratic nominee, whoever that is. Which means that if either major-party nominee can carry independent voters by anything close to double digits, that candidate will win the popular vote and also win the Electoral College.
Polling on ImpeachmentLets start with impeachment. Public opinion is moving and distinctly unsettled. In a Quinnipiac poll conducted in mid-September, 37 percent of the respondents supported Trumps impeachment and removal while 57 percent were opposed. The splits were 95-4 percent opposed among Republicans and 73-21 percent in favor among Democrats, while independents were opposed 58-34 percent.
There was another interesting number in the late-October WaPo/ABC poll: Asked about Rudy Giulianis shadow foreign policy in Ukraine, 60 percent of voters said it was inappropriate, including 61 percent of independents and 32 percent of Republicans.