United States Presidential Election
|President before election|
The tone of the general election campaign was widely characterized as divisive and negative. Trump faced controversy over his views on race and immigration, incidents of violence against protestors at his rallies, and numerous sexual misconduct allegations including the Access Hollywood tape. Clinton’s popularity and public image were tarnished by concerns about her ethics and trustworthiness, and a controversy and subsequent FBI investigation regarding her improper use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state, which received more media coverage than any other topic during the campaign.
Clinton led in almost every nationwide and swing-state poll, with some predictive models giving Clinton over a 90 percent chance of winning. On Election Day, Trump over-performed his polls, winning several key swing-states, while losing the popular vote by 2.87 million votes. Trump received the majority in the Electoral College and won upset victories in the pivotal Rust Belt region. Ultimately, Trump received 304 electoral votes and Clinton 227, as two faithless electors defected from Trump and five from Clinton. Trump was the first president with neither prior public service nor military experience.
Senate Control Remains Unclear With Several Uncalled Races
Before the election, Democrats had become increasingly confident they would take control of the US Senate. And thatâs still technically a possibility.
But Republicans easily scored key Senate victories. Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina and Sen. Mitch McConnell in Kentucky won by large margins. Sen. Susan Collins defied expectations and is on the cusp of victory in Maine, and Sen. Thom Tillis is leading in his bid for reelection in North Carolina. And they lost a seat in Alabama.
But they did pick up seats in Colorado and Arizona. And there are not one but two GOP-held Senate seats moving toward a January 5 runoff in Georgia. Those runoffs now appear likely to decide who controls the Senate.
In the House, rather than building on their majority, Democrats have lost a handful of seats and may lose more as we get more results in California, where some of their 2018 gains appear likely to be erased.
Beliefs And Policies Of Candidates
Hillary Clinton focused her candidacy on several themes, including raising middle class incomes, expanding women’s rights, instituting campaign finance reform, and improving the Affordable Care Act. In March 2016, she laid out a detailed economic plan basing her economic philosophy on inclusive capitalism, which proposed a “clawback” that rescinds tax cuts and other benefits for companies that move jobs overseas with provision of incentives for companies that share profits with employees, communities and the environment, rather than focusing on short-term profits to increase stock value and rewarding shareholders as well as increasing collective bargaining rights and placing an “exit tax” on companies that move their headquarters out of the U.S. in order to pay a lower tax rate overseas. Clinton promoted equal pay for equal work to address current alleged shortfalls in how much women are paid to do the same jobs men do, promoted explicitly focus on family issues and support of universal preschool, expressed support for the right to same-sex marriage, and proposed allowing undocumented immigrants to have a path to citizenship stating that it “s at its heart a family issue.”
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On Ballot In A Single State
- Lawrence “Larry Joe” Cohen of Illinois
- David Formhals of Illinois
- Brian James O’Neill of Illinois
Sources: Illinois Democrat and Candidates from The Green Papers
- New Hampshire
- Vermin Supreme of Maryland performance artist and perennial candidate
- David John Thistle of New Hampshire
- Graham Schwass of Massachusetts
- Lloyd Kelso of North Carolina
- Eric Elbot of Massachusetts
- William D. French of Pennsylvania
- Raymond Michael Moroz of New York
- Edward T. OâDonnell, Jr. of Pennsylvania
- Robert Lovitt of Kentucky
- William H. McGaughey, Jr. of Minnesota
- Edward Sonnino of New York
- Sam Sloan of New York former chess administrator and 2012 Libertarian Party candidate
- Brock C. Hutton of Maryland
- Steven Roy Lipscomb of New Mexico
- Richard Lyons Weil of Colorado
Source: New Hampshire Democrat and Candidates from The Green Papers
- Rhode Island
Source: Rhode Island Democrat and Candidates from The Green Papers
Source: Texas Democrat and Candidates from The Green Papers
- West Virginia
Source: West Virginia Democrat and Candidates from The Green Papers
Vs 201: How Trump’s Win And Clinton’s Votes Stack Up To Romney And Obama
Last week, election results from all states were finally certified. While most headlines focused on Hillary Clintons 2.8 million popular votes lead over Donald Trump, the results also debunked claims that had been circulating over the past few weeks.
Visualization by Hamdan Azhar
Contrary to earlyreports, Trump ended up receiving two million more votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Meanwhile, Clinton fell short of Obamas 2012 popular vote totals by about 70,000. Third party candidates surged from 2.2 million votes in 2012 to just over 7.8 million in 2016.
Visualization by Hamdan Azhar
Final results also reveal that despite early claims of historically low turnout, the number of raw votes cast in the 2016 presidential election – 136,628,459 – is actually the highest total ever. Even while adjusting for the voting eligible population, Professor Michael McDonald of the University of Florida estimates this election had a voter turnout rate of 58.9%. While this is lower than the 61.6% turnout in 2008 , its still significantly higher than the 56% estimated by pundits immediately after the election.
Visualization by Hamdan Azhar
Visualization by Hamdan Azhar
The flip side is that Clinton matched Obamas performance in 17 states , but she fell behind in six midwest states: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and Ohio.
Visualization by Hamdan Azhar
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An Estimated 579 Percent Of Eligible Voters Voted In 2016
Projections from the United States Elections Project show that there were 231,556,622 Americans eligible to vote, but 138,884,643 voted. That means that 40 percent didnt vote, while 60 percent did. The voter turnout will likely increase as the popular vote continues to be counted.
|Voting Eligible Population Ballots|
This number is not the same number as registered voters. Politico reported in October 2016 that the data firm TargetSmart calculated that there were 200 million people registered to vote, an increase from 146.3 million registered to vote in 2008. Eleven states also allowed same-day voter registration.
The Elections Project notes that there were 251,107,404 people who classify as members of the voting-age population, therefore 115,449,897 of the voting-age population did not vote.
This is different from the voting-eligible population because there are over 3.2 million people ineligible to vote as felons. The Sentencing Project estimates that 2.5 percent of the U.S. voting-age population cannot vote because of a felony record.
Interestingly enough, the Election Projects latest updates show that 136,489,372 voters voted for the highest office. That means 2,395,271 people didnt vote for President, even though they did vote.
Simulations: What If 2016 Had Looked More Like 2012
While comments regarding the effect of various changes to the electorate have been peppered throughout this paper, this section is dedicated to dissecting these what if scenarios in greater length. However, before digging in its worth stepping back and clarifying the lessons that can be learned from these simulations as well as our intentions in performing them.
Since the election there has been a vigorous and, to our eyes, healthy debate regarding what happened in 2016. The barely concealed subtext of this conversation is an argument about what would have altered the results and how the parties should invest their time and resources in upcoming elections.
These simulations are not an endorsement of any given strategy nor should they be read as such. Running a simulation on the turnout or support rates of various demographic groups is much easier than actually changing Americans political behavior. It may very well be the case that simulations that produce the biggest Electoral College wins or the most secure state-level margins would have been the hardest to achieve. As such, the potential effects discussed here should be filtered through readers own sense of a given simulations feasibility.
Second, we wanted to explore simulations that told us something interesting about the electorate or more systematic changes that were occurring nationwide. This goal is responsible for our two remaining simulations.
Briefly, our four simulations answer the following questions:
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Here’s A Breakdown Of How African
Donald Trump was elected president, despite almost every poll predicting a slamdunk win for his Democratic competitor Hillary Clinton. While there are many reasons behind Trump’s sudden upswell of support, many have pointed to Hillary’s failure to draw in as many African-American and non-white voters as President Obama did in 2008 and 2012.
So how did African-Americans vote in the 2016 election? Despite President Obama telling black voters that he would take it as a “personal insult” if they didn’t cast their ballot for Hillary Clinton, 2016 black voters didn’t coalesce behind Clinton the same way they did Obama, with Clinton earning 88% of their vote as compared to Obama’s 93% in 2012. That being said, the overwhelming majority of African-Americans did show their support by voting for Clinton, particularly as compared to white Americans, who ultimately won Trump the election by giving him 58% of the white vote.
Here’s the complete breakdown of how African-Americans voted in the 2016 Presidential Election, based on exit polls:
Involvement Of Other Countries
On December 9, 2016, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta‘s emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed. President Barack Obama ordered a “full review” into such possible intervention. Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper in early January 2017 testified before a Senate committee that Russia’s meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news, often promoted on social media. Facebook revealed that during the 2016 United States presidential election, a Russian company funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin, had purchased advertisements on the website for US$100,000, 25% of which were geographically targeted to the U.S.
President-elect Trump originally called the report fabricated. said the Russian government was not the source of the documents. Days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking “if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies.”
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Third Party And Independent Candidates For The 2016 United States Presidential ElectionThird party and independent candidates for the2016 U.S. presidential election
This article contains lists of official and potential third party and independent candidates associated with the 2016 United States presidential election.
“Third party” is a term commonly used in the United States in reference to political parties other than the two major parties, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. An independent candidate is one who runs for office with no formal party affiliation.
Ballot access in states holding 270 or more electoral votes represents a majority of the 538 electoral votes in the Electoral College. The number of electoral votes for which a party or independent candidate has secured ballot access may increase as those parties or candidates complete their petitions, and filings for ballot access, until September 2016 when the last petition deadlines occur.
According to the Green Papers website, 31 people were on the ballot in at least one state, while 192, including those who were on ballots in some states, obtained recognition as official write-in candidates.
As Voters’ Education Levels Increase They’re More Likely To Vote For Clinton Or Biden Instead Of Trump
Trump gained around three percentage points of support among voters who have never attended college, a demographic with which Biden failed to make gains in 2020.
But Biden performed remarkably better than Trump in 2020 among voters with an advanced degree. The Democratic nominee received an estimated 62% of the vote from post-graduate degree holders, a full 25 percentage points higher than Trump with 37%.
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Cities Overwhelmingly Voted Democrat In Both Elections While Rural Voters Chose Trump The Suburbs Swung From Trump In 2016 To Biden In 2020
In 2016, Trump received an estimated 49% of the vote in the suburbs, 4 percentage points more than his opponent. As previously reported, both campaigns in 2020 increased their focus on winning such voters. Biden emerged victorious in the suburbs, winning 50% of voters there two percentage points more than Trump and five more percentage points than Clinton in 2016.
Trump appears to have lost four percentage points of support in small cities and rural communities, dropping from 61% of support to 57% in 2020. Conversely, Biden gained eight percentage points in these areas, ultimately winning 42% of the rural vote.
Timeline Of The 2016 United States Presidential Election
The following is a timeline of major events leading up to, during, and after the 2016 United States presidential election. The election was the 58th quadrennialUnited States presidential election, held on November 8, 2016. The presidential primaries and caucuses were held between February 1 and June 14, 2016, staggered among the 50 states, Washington, D.C., and U.S. territories. The U.S. Congress certified the electoral result on January 6, 2017, and the new President and Vice President were inaugurated on January 20, 2017.
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey, forms a PAC in preparation for a possible run for president
- , former Governor of Maryland, forms a PAC in preparation for a possible run for president
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