Gsa Delays Certifying Biden As President
Although all major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, the head of the General Services Administration , Trump appointee Emily W. Murphy, refused for over two weeks to certify Biden as the president-elect. Without formal GSA certification or ascertainment of the winner of the election, the official transition process was delayed. On November 23, Murphy acknowledged Biden as the winner and said the Trump administration would begin the formal transition process. Trump said he had instructed his administration to do what needs to be done but did not concede, and indicated he intended to continue his fight to overturn the election results.
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New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won How Trump Kept The Race Close And What It Tells Us About The Future
As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.
Now, using a massive sample of validated voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has . It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did notand why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.
How Joe Biden won
Five main factors account for Bidens success.
How Trump kept it close
Despite non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.
Id Vote For Him Again: Bowers Backs Trump Despite Denouncing Big Lie
Arizona Republicans comments come after January 6 hearing testimony that the effects of Trumps actions were horrendous
Rusty Bowers, the Arizona Republican House speaker who made national headlines describing his refusal to help Donald Trump overturn the 2020 election, has said he will vote for Trump again if he runs for president in 2024.
If he is the nominee, if he was up against Biden, Id vote for him again, Bowers told the Associated Press. Simply because what he did the first time, before Covid, was so good for the country. In my view it was great.
The statement, made on Monday, read jarringly in light of testimony Bowers delivered before the January 6 committee in Washington on Tuesday.
But it echoed comments from other Republicans, the former attorney general William Barr prominent among them, who have said they will still support Trump even after denouncing his attempt to subvert US democracy in service of his lie about electoral fraud in his defeat by Biden.
Bowers told the AP: I supported him, I walked for him, I campaigned with him. But I wouldnt do anything illegal for him.
He said the effects of Trumps attempt to overturn the election, including the deadly US Capitol attack, were horrendous, adding: The result of throwing the pebble in the pond the reverberations across the pond, have, I think, been very destructive.
Asked if he told Trump he won Arizona, Bowers said: That is also false.
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It Would Be An Abject Disaster
More than 90 percent of registered voters live in jurisdictions where in-person voters use a paper ballot of some form, but hand counting of ballots is extremely rare.
A bit more than 800 jurisdictions nationwide covering 0.6 percent of registered voters primarily count either in-person or mail ballots by hand, according to Warren Stewart, a data analyst at the Verified Voting Foundation, which advocates for election security measures.
Election officials say there is a very good reason for that.
Many of those jurisdictions that hand count ballots have small numbers of voters hundreds, not thousands. Moving to hand counting in midsize jurisdictions like Nevadas Nye County, let alone a megacounty like Maricopa County, Ariz., where more than 2 million people cast ballots in the 2020 election, would spike the cost of elections, drastically extend the amount of time it takes to get results and make final tallies potentially less accurate.
It would be an abject disaster, said Adrian Fontes, the former Maricopa County recorder now running in the Democratic primary for secretary of state in Arizona. Theres not a serious person anywhere in or adjacent to election administration who will tell you that hand counting is better than machine counting.
If you machine count, then you can do an audit, said Merlino. But if you hand count, what do you check it against? What do you do, hand count three or four times until you hopefully come up with a consensus on the votes?
No One In Washington Is Sensible
I may be voting Republican this time, but I dont mind if Trump wins and Republicans lose control of the Senate. I despise Mitch McConnell . Hes been in politics so long hes completely blind and insulated from reality. So is Nancy Pelosi . They are both career politicians whose only thought in any situation is whats best for my party right now the normal rules of law and morality are out the window.
If Trump loses and the Supreme Court post hasnt been confirmed, McConnell would absolutely install a judge in the lame duck session before the new President is installed. It would be disgusting, but I wouldnt put anything past him.
In that scenario, I would definitely support balancing the court creating one extra space but not packing it with lots of new posts. That would be sensible, but I dont think anyone in Washington is sensible.
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Lunchtime Reads From The Post
Greitenss violent ad sets off GOP scramble to stop his Senate bid
Republican operatives and donors in Washington and Missouri are privately working to undercut the Senate campaign of Eric Greitens, the ex-governor who resigned in disgrace four years ago, after he released an ad that graphically dramatized hunting down members of his own party, Isaac Arnsdorf, Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey and Carol D. Leonnig report.
The opposition is split among factions backing different rivals in the Aug. 2 primary and over disagreements on who should attack Greitens or how, according to people involved in the discussionsSome are concerned that intervening in the race could play into Greitenss hands by feeding his anti-establishment posturing or even prompting former president Donald Trump to endorse him.
Fear over recent shootings has some avoiding crowds, businesses
Reeling from high-profile mass shootings at a Buffalo supermarket and Uvalde, Tex., elementary school, some have expressed heightened concern that they could be the next victim of random gunfire. In the D.C. area in recent days, two instances of gunshots in crowded public spaces at the festival on U Street and at a Fairfax County mall reinforced that no one is immune from violence, Justin Jouvenal and Emily Davies report.
Trump’s Refusal To Concede
Early in the morning on November 4, with vote counts still going on in many states, Trump claimed he had won. For weeks after the networks had called the election for Biden, Trump refused to acknowledge that Biden had won. Biden described Trump’s refusal as “an embarrassment”. In the wake of the election, the General Services Administration refused to formally acknowledge Biden’s victory, and the White House ordered government agencies not to cooperate with the Biden transition team in any way. Starting in 1896, when William Jennings Bryan established a precedent of formal concession by sending a congratulatory telegram to President-elect William McKinley, every losing major party presidential candidate has formally conceded.
Trump acknowledged Biden’s victory in a tweet on November 15, although he refused to concede and blamed his loss on fraud, stating: “He won because the Election was Rigged.” Trump then tweeted: “I concede NOTHING! We have a long way to go.”
In a June 2021 interview with Sean Hannity, Trump stated that “we didn’t win” and said that he wished President Biden success in international diplomacy, which Forbes interpreted as Trump ” as close as hes ever been to conceding his 2020 election loss.”
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Vote By Party And Ideology
Voter choice and party affiliation were nearly synonymous. Republican validated voters reported choosing Trump by a margin of 92% to 4%, while Democrats supported Clinton by 94% to 5%. The roughly one-third of the electorate who identified as independent or with another party divided their votes about evenly .
Similarly, voting was strongly correlated with ideological consistency, based on a scale composed of 10 political values including opinions on race, homosexuality, the environment, foreign policy and the social safety net. Respondents are placed into five categories ranging from consistently conservative to consistently liberal.
Virtually all validated voters with consistently liberal values voted for Clinton over Trump , while nearly all those with consistently conservative values went for Trump . Those who held conservative views on most political values favored Trump by 87% to 7%, while Clinton received the support of somewhat fewer among those who were mostly liberal . Among the nearly one-third of voters whose ideological profile was mixed, the vote was divided .
Grand Jury Convened In Criminal Investigation Of Trump
Only one president, Grover Cleveland, has ever lost a re-election bid and come back to reclaim the White House. In modern times, one-term presidents have worried more about rehabilitating their legacies by taking on nonpartisan causes Democrat Jimmy Carter by building housing for the poor and George H.W. Bush by raising money for disaster aid, for example than about trying to shape national elections. But Trump retains a hold on the Republican electorate that is hard to overstate, and he has no intention of relinquishing it.
“There’s a reason why they’re called ‘Trump voters,'” Miller said. “They either don’t normally vote or don’t normally vote for Republicans.”
Trump lost the popular vote by more than 7 million last year and the Electoral College by the same 306-232 result by which he had won four years earlier but he got more votes than any other Republican nominee in history. And it would have taken fewer than 44,000 votes, spread across swing states Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, to reverse the outcome.
Republicans, including Trump allies, say it’s too early to know what he will do, or what the political landscape will look like, in four years. A busload of Republican hopefuls are taking similar strides to position themselves. They include former Vice President Mike Pence, who is speaking to New Hampshire Republicans on Thursday, an event that the Concord Monitor called the kickoff of the 2024 race.
That’s basically what Trump is doing.
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Campaign Advisors And Staff
Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign saw a number of hirings and staff departures, beginning even before Trump announced his candidacy. The most notable of these campaign shifts came in March 2016 when Paul Manafort was hired as the campaign’s convention manager. Manafort’s hiring, seen in the press as a demotion for then-campaign managerCorey Lewandowski, began a series of disputes within the Trump campaign over who would direct the campaign’s strategy and personnel decisions. In May 2016, Manafort was promoted to campaign chair and chief strategist Lewandowski was fired from the campaign on June 20, 2016. Manafort then resigned in August 2016, two days after the Trump campaign hired Breitbart News executive Steve Bannon as campaign chief executive and promoted pollster Kellyanne Conway to campaign manager.
The following timeline details some of the highlights of Trump’s staff hires and dismissals throughout the campaign.
Nearly A Third Of Young Americans Say That Politics Has Gotten In The Way Of A Friendship Differences Of Opinion On Race
Thirty-one percent of young Americans, but 37% of young Biden voters and 32% of young Trump voters say that politics has gotten in the way of a friendship before. Gender is not a strong predictor of whether or not politics has invaded personal space, but race and ethnicity are. Young whites are more likely than young Blacks to say that politics has gotten in the wayand nearly half of white Biden voters say politics has negatively impacted a friendship 30% of white Trump voters say the same.
When young Americans were asked whether a difference of opinion on several political issues might impact a friendship, 44% of all young Americans said that they could not be friends with someone who disagreed with them on race relations. Sixty percent of Biden voters agreed with this sentiment, as did a majority of women and Blacks . Americans between 18 and 24 were more likely than those slightly older to feel that race relations would cause a problem with friendships. Differences of opinion on whether or not to support Trump was an issue for slightly more than a third , followed by immigration , police reform , abortion , climate change , and guns .
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Why I Will Vote For Trump
As the election impends, I feel an irresistible need to explain why I am going to vote for President Donald Trump. It is considered suicidal for an academic today to be upfront about this. Indeed, it is said that 95 percent of all U.S. academics hold Trump in contemptand most of the remaining 5 percent, who may agree with me, would never dare to admit it in public.
So why do it? As a former refugee from totalitarian, communist Romania, I feel a moral obligation to speak out and prove that academics dont need to think and act in lockstep.
Like many of my colleagues, I find much of what Trump says and tweets on impulse distasteful, though his prepared speeches can be inspiring. I didnt vote for him in 2016. Though a registered independent, I find myself almost always opposed to the Democratic candidate. I am opposed to many of the things Democrats push for: big-government programs, heavy regulations, higher taxes, weak foreign policy with an over-reliance on ineffective and often corrupt international institutions and, worst of all, raw identity politics.
Trump may be a highly flawed human being, but unlike many other politicians, he is at least readily transparent. Trumps awfulness is in your face, while the awfulness of a typical politician is hidden behind a carefully crafted façade and a veil of credible deniability.
Sergiu Klainerman is professor of mathematics at Princeton University.