How Racial Justice Protests Have Started A Contemporary Culture War
This lack of crossover support for presidents in their first term in office points toward one of the most animating forces in American politics today: Increased disdain and hatred of ones political opponents, known as negative partisanship. As the chart below shows, opinions about the other party have become far more unfavorable since the late 1970s. In other words, its not that surprising that Americans are far less likely to approve of and more likely to intensely dislike presidents from the other party right from the moment they take office.
Such hostile sentiments reflect a world in which each major party increasingly believes the other poses a threat to the countrys well-being. Consider that in 2019, the Pew Research Center found that about three-fourths of Americans thought that Democrats and Republicans not only disagreed over plans and policies, but that they also couldnt agree on basic facts. This is certainly borne out in attitudes toward the economy: Democrats thought the economy was immediately doing worse once Trump took office, while Republicans immediately thought it was getting worse after Biden won the 2020 election. And in the lead-up to the 2020 contest, Pew also found that about 9 in 10 of both Biden and Trump supporters felt that the victory of the other partys presidential nominee would lead to lasting harm, a sign of how each side increasingly finds the other to be an unacceptable political alternative.
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The Science Of Ranking Us Presidents
Is Barack Obama really the worst president since World War II? The Quinnipiac Poll announced just that result recently. There were thereafter a number of pushbacks from that conclusion, most based on the fact that such an open-end question reflects a recency bias in that Americans think about the presidents who are most top-of-mind.
Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspxGallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A +1 202.715.3030
Trump Approval Rating By State 2021
The presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. were introduced in the late 1930s by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president during their term. Approval ratings are determined by polling given to a sample of people.
Like most surveys, poll results may be inaccurate due to samples that self-select. However, statisticians generally accept the approval rating as a factual indicator of the peoples feelings about the president.
As of April 2020, President Trumps approval rate is 46.0% and his disapproval is at 49.6%.
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Biden Has Just 33 Percent Approval Rating In Iowa Poll
Joe BidenPennsylvaniaâs GOP-controlled Senate to spend up to 0K on election investigation Bidenâs pick for Arizonaâs US Attorney confirmed by SenateOvernight Health Care Presented by Emergent Biosolutions Boosters for allMORE has just a 33 percent approval rating in an Iowa poll released Wednesday.
Only 33 percent approve of Bidens overall job as president, down from 47 percent in March in Iowa.
The highest support Biden received was for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic at 41 percent, according to the poll.
Iowa voters gave him a 22 percent approval rating for his handling of Afghanistan, 24 percent for immigration, 28 percent for criminal justice and 32 percent for the economy.
Joni Kay ErnstBiden picks former Senate candidate Theresa Greenfield to Iowaâs USDA postBiden has just 33 percent approval rating in Iowa pollOvernight Defense & National Security A new plan to treat Marines âlike human beingsâMORE enjoy an approval rating higher than Biden, both receiving 45 percent support, the poll showed.
Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds has the highest approval rating at 51 percent.
Biden says he expects to run in 2024, while Trump has not confirmed his 2024 election plans.
Calculating A Trend Line
Because individual polls can be noisy, we estimate how Trumps approval rating has changed over time using local polynomial regression. Basically, this consists of drawing a smooth curve over the data this method is similar to those used on Huffington Post Pollster and other sites. In the regression, polls are weighted on the basis that I described earlier, so higher-quality polls with larger sample sizes have more say in the estimate.
While local polynomial regression is a flexible and fairly intuitive method, its a bit trickier to work with than it might seem. Thats because people dont always take the time to determine the correct degree of smoothing, which is governed by several parameters, including the bandwidth and the degree of the polynomial. Too little smoothing can make the curve jut up and down unnecessarily and will result in overfitting of the data. If you smooth too much, however, the curve may be aesthetically pleasing but wont do all that good a job of describing the data and may be slow to catch up to new trends. While there are usually a wide range of reasonable settings when choosing trend-line parameters, our experience has been that people often over-smooth the data when applying these techniques.6
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A Key Question Moving Forward: Is Trumps Grip On The Gop Stronger Than His Bases
An odd fight broke out earlier this week that may well have escaped your notice. A former senior member of Donald Trumps administration released the results of polling arguing that the former presidents grip on the Republican base has weakened. Trump and his team pushed back hard, but that was largely ignored because of the release of the verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial and Trumps diminished voice in the public sphere.
The argument made by a super PAC associated with former national security adviser John Bolton centered on the extent to which Republican voters were still likely to follow Trumps political lead. The desired outcome here is obvious: Bolton, who became a vocal Trump critic, wants to suggest to Republicans that the political cost of bucking Trump has faded. Ergo, the poll.
It centered on three points: that Trumps favorability has fallen, that his endorsement isnt critical and that many Republicans dont plan to support him in a possible 2024 bid. Each of those arguments, though, isnt very strong. The favorability drop compares two polls and shows a small shift from very favorable views to somewhat favorable. The endorsement point leverages a format would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump, etc. that is notoriously iffy.
The 2024 polling still shows Trump at 50 percent among Republican voters, 39 points above the second-place contender. Not exactly a weak position in a crowded field.
Real Clear Politics Trump Approval Rating: 408 Percent
In mid-September, Real Clear Politicswhich tracks numerous polls to find an averagefound the president to have a 40.8 percent approval rating, compared to 53.6 percent who disapproved of him.
The number was a downturn for Trump, who Real Clear Politics found had a 42.9 percent approval rating in mid-July, a notch higher than his 42.4 percent approval rating the month before.
The website found that the presidents approval rating has been declining since late August, amid criticism of his handling of Sen. John McCains death and guilty pleas by his former lawyer Michael Cohen and former campaign chairman Paul Manafort.
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What Would Make You Change Your Mind About Donald J Trump
When Michael Tesler, a political scientist at the University of California Irvine, tries to explain the amazing stability of Trumps approval in his classes, he starts with a question. He asks his students if theres anything Trump could do to make them support him. And hes invariably met by a sea of shaking heads. If you went into Trumps presidency thinking hes a racist, sexist, xenophobic, immoral, narcissistic, corrupt, and incompetent person beliefs held by most Clinton voters then theres literally almost nothing he could do to change your mind, says Tesler.
The same is true in reverse. If you see Trump as the protector of Western Civilization, as Charlie Kirk called him the other night at the RNC, or the protector of white America, as Desmond King and Rogers Smith have called him, defending cherished American values from atheist, left-wing socialists who want to take your guns and put Cory Booker in charge of diversifying your neighborhoods, then theres almost nothing that would make you abandon him, Tesler continues.
But how do we know if were being governed with a bare level of competence?
Trump Ends With Weakest Average Approval Rating Since Truman
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President Trumps approval rating has dropped to 34% in a Gallup poll released Monday, the low point of a presidency that already had the weakest average approval rating of any of his predecessors since the survey began in the 1940s.
The new Gallup numbers, based on a poll that began just before the assault on the Capitol on Jan. 6, show Trumps approval rating falling 12 percentage points since before the Nov. 3 election.
The drop mirrors other polls that show a significant loss of support in the final two weeks of his presidency, which included not only the riot he egged on but the unprecedented second impeachment. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Trump with a 39.8% approval rating, down 4 percentage points since the Capitol attack.
Gallups numbers give the most historical perspective, measuring Trump against his last 12 predecessors, going back to Harry S Truman. Trumps final approval rating of 34% is the same received by Presidents George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter in their final Gallup polls. Truman was the lowest at 32%.
President Barack Obama left office with a 59% approval rating.
Trumps average approval rating across his term, 41.1%, is the lowest measured by Gallup, 4 percentage points lower than Truman.
But his standing took a hit last summer, following the nationwide protests sparked by the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis.
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The Claim: President Joe Bidens Approval Rating Is 39% And Lower Than Donald Trumps Ever Was
Text in reads, “Joe Biden’s approval falls to 39 percent, worse than Trump’s approval ever.” The post did not indicate which poll it’s referring to.
A similar post accumulated 46,000 likes in six days before it was deleted. Other claims in this vein have racked up hundreds of interactions on Facebook and Instagram, according to CrowdTangle, a social media insights tool.
The claim is misleading. While one poll did put Bidens approval rating at 39%, the polling average a more accurate measure of a president’s popularity put it higher. Experts say Biden’s approval rating, the lowest since he took office, is still higher than Trumps term low.
USA TODAY reached out to several social media users who shared the claim for comment.
Trump Approval Ratings: What’s President’s Favorability As Impeachment Inquiry Continues And After Nato Summit Setback
The most recent polls for Donald Trump continue to provide an unclear view of the president’s job performance.
The right-leaning Rasmussen survey shows that 51% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, with 48% disapproving. On the other hand, a poll from Economist/YouGov poll shows that 46% of Americans approve of Trump, with 52% disapproving.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from early December reveals a 42% approval rating compared to a 54% disapproval rating.
The polls were released before Trump’s visit to London this week for the NATO summit, where Trump engaged in some awkward and tense exchanges with world leaders. In one meeting, Trump sat with French President Emmanuel Macron and complained about the number of ISIS fighters the U.S. has captured, while asking for Europe to do more.
“Would you like some nice ISIS fighters?” Trump said while claiming “many” fighters came from France. “I can give them to you.”
“Let’s be serious,” Macron shot back, saying that defeating ISIS is still a top priority.
For Macron, Trump’s comments are not a laughing matter, with ISIS claiming attacks in Paris and Nice in recent years, which have killed hundreds of French nationals.
In another spat, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on camera likely mocking Trump with other world leaders during the summit. In response, Trump called Trudeau “two-faced.”
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Trumps Approval Rating Among Republicans Is Not As High As He Claims
First off, Trumps approval rating among Republicans isnt the 94 percent he claims its actually about 10 points lower. The Washington Post provided an overview of the relevant polling last month, after Trump posted a tweet on August 23 touting the fake Republican approval number he loves to cite:
A Monmouth University poll released Thursday found 84 percent of Republicans approve of Trumps job performance, while an AP-NORC poll found that 79 percent do. His highest recent approval mark among fellow Republicans was 88 percent in a Fox News poll of registered voters earlier this month.
Trumps claim of 94 percent approval among Republicans is also higher than in a Zogby Analytics poll released earlier this month that Trump has touted. That firm, whose surveys do not rely on a random sample of U.S. voters and whose pre-election polls have often been inaccurate, put Trumps approval rating among Republicans at 86 percent.
In short, its unclear where Trump is getting his 94% number from. But whatever its origins, it is not coming from a reputable source.
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Multiple States Hold Key Primaries As Coronavirus Pandemic Floyd Protests Continue
WASHINGTON On the day of George Floyds funeral in Houston and as coronavirus cases continue to rise, several states are holding primaries to determine which candidates will represent their parties come November.
Here are the races the NBC News political unit are paying closest attention to:
Georgia Senate: The top primary contest to watch is in Georgia, where several Democrats are running for the right to challenge Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., in the fall.
The favorite in this Democratic primary is 2017 congressional nominee, Jon Ossoff, and his top challengers are former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson and businesswoman Sarah Riggs Amico. The Cook Political Report lists the race as Lean Republican for November.
If none of the candidates break 50 percent, the Top 2 will advance to an Aug. 11 runoff.
South Carolina Senate: Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Democrat Jaime Harrison receive nominal primary opposition ahead of their expected November showdown in the Palmetto State. Harrison has raked in significant fundraising ahead of todays contest.
Nevada 3rd District: Republicans will pick their nominee in Nevada to face Democratic Congresswoman Susie Lee, D-Nev., in the competitive Nevada district.
Nevada 4th District: Also in Nevada, incumbent Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, who recently admitted to having an affair with a former Senate staffer, is receiving a primary challenge from multiple Democrats, as well as Republicans who are trying to reclaim the seat.
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