Trump Wins Back Independents Biden Loses Ground With Women
Both candidates largely hold onto voters within their own parties. Ninety-three percent of Democrats support Biden, along with 4% of self-described Republicans. And 89% of Republicans support Trump, along with 2% of Democrats.
But Trump has regained an edge with those who identify as independents a bloc key to his 2016 win in Iowa. According to National Election Pool exit polling published by CNN, independent voters favored Trump 51% to 38% over Democrat Hillary Clinton that year.
In the Registers September Iowa Poll, Biden led with independents 50% to 38%. But today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35%.
I think that the key to what’s happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents, Selzer said. That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and it’s come back to be a Trump asset.
In addition to fading with independents, Biden has lost ground with women. In September, he held a 20-point lead among women, which balanced out Trumps 21-point lead among men. But today, Bidens lead with women has shrunk to 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%.
We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September, Selzer said. And while there is still a big gap among men theyre going for Trump by a 24-point margin it’s just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so there’s just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.
Covid Covid Covid: ‘thousands Gathered’ For Trump Campaign Rally In Tampa Florida
Think of it. Clinton wandering around the woods near her home in Chappaqua, N.Y., kicking herself for not appearing even once in Wisconsin. Meanwhile Biden is only now belatedly hitting the trail a little. This is a risky experiment. Every modern presidential candidate has traveled as much as humanly possible and then traveled some more. Meeting and speaking to voters responsibly is key. Biden is exploring the political equivalent of eating consommé with a fork.
Campaigning does not just reach voters. It imparts a sense of vigor, industriousness and sociability that people want in a leader. I dont think Trump should be drawing so many people to celebrations that feature sardine-packed, mask-less supporters whose health is at risk. But his rallies suggest that better days are ahead the theme of most winning presidential campaigns.
Thursday, there was a significant indicator that happy days may indeed soon be here again. The Commerce Department released the U.S. gross domestic product number for the third quarter, showing growth rate of around 33 percent. This will feed directly into Trumps argument that he is best positioned to save the economy.
Trump complains endlessly about mail-in ballots, ignoring that they may help him.
Npr Electoral Map: Biden Lead Widens Again With Less Than A Month To Go
Biden’s widened lead comes on the heels of Trump’s erratic first debate performance, the vice presidential debate and Trump’s contracting COVID-19. By a 53%-to-35% margin, likely voters say Biden and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris, benefited more from the debates than did Trump and Vice President Pence.
Even a quarter of Republicans say the Biden-Harris ticket benefited more or they’re unsure.
Trump’s presidency seen as a failure
A slim majority â 52% â of likely voters say Trump’s presidency has been a failure, compared with 45% who say it has been a success.
Democrats and Republicans have essentially mirror images of how they view this president â 91% of Democrats say Trump’s presidency has been a failure, while 93% of Republicans say it has been a success. But with independents, a group Trump won in 2016, 56% say his presidency has been a failure.
Whites are split three-quarters of Black voters say Trump’s presidency has been a failure, as do 53% of Latinos and 62% of whites with a college degree. A majority â 56% â of whites without a college degree, however, think his presidency has been a success.
Trump seen as “incompetent” Biden seen as “honest”
Americans also largely view Trump negatively. In an open-ended question, respondents were asked to describe the candidates in one word.
For Trump, the word that stands out is “incompetent,” while for Biden it is “honest.”
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Not many persuadable voters
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Can I Still Vote If I Have Covid
Yes. If you have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or are exhibiting symptoms, consider requesting an emergency mail-in ballot or using curbside voting. Contact your county elections office for more details about both options.
Have you run into hurdles or problems while trying to vote in Texas? We want your help in reporting on those challenges. Tell The Texas Tribune your voting story.
The economy was the most important issue behind the presidential vote for 11% of voters, and for 22% of independents asked to name the top issue behind their choice. It was also the top pick among Republicans , followed by socialism and/or communism, the issue mentioned by 12% of Republican voters on that open-ended question. Among Democrats, 19% cited removing the president as their top issue, followed by coronavirus/COVID-19 and health care .
Most voters have made their final decisions: 91% said they are unlikely to change their minds before they vote.
The reality is, if you look across those items, you see that the issue is, again, the personal traits of the president and, to a lesser extent, the former vice president, said Josh Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin. Ultimately, it is all about Trump.
The president lost independents in Texas a little while ago, and he hasnt gained them back, Blank said. Thats affecting Republicans up and down the ballot.
New Poll: President Trump Leads The 2024 Pack By Huge Margin
According to a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll poll provided exclusively to The Hill on Monday, former President Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 if he chooses to run for president again.
Almost 6 in 10 Republican voters polled said they would vote to reinstate the former president on the ballot in 2024, indicating that the party is ready and prepared to give Trump another opportunity.
No other possible Republican presidential contender in 2024 comes close to matching Trumps popularity. Republican voters give former Vice President Mike Pence a distant second place vote of 13 percent, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a rising star in the party, receives just 9 percent support in a primary field that includes Trump and other presidential candidates.
Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and Sen. Marco Rubio are tied for fourth place with 3 percent support apiece, according to the latest poll results.As Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll study, put it, While defeated candidates rarely come back, Trump has a strong lead in the Republican primary especially among the most dedicated Republicans.
In the months after his departure from the White House in January, Trump has both publicly and privately entertained the idea of running for president in 2024.
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These Are The States Where Donald Trump Is Leading In The Polls
There’s rarely been a political poll that Republican candidate Donald Trump likes â unless he’s winning it.
After weeks of brushing off his opponent Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s recent surge in national polls, Trump admitted on Monday that he is trailing behind just weeks before the Nov. 8 election.
Trump compared his position in the polls, where he’s trailing Clinton by about five points, according to the latestRealClearPoliticsaverage of national polls, to Brexit, the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union.
Leaders were confident that the U.K. would stay. They were wrong.
“I think we’re going to have, you know whether it’s Brexit or beyond Brexit, I think we’re going to have a Brexit situation. You know, that one was behind in the polls. And I guess I’m somewhat behind in the polls but not by much,” Trump told Charlotte, North Carolina talk radio station WBT.
At any rate, here’s where polling averages actually show Trump in the lead.
Poll: Donald Trump Now Leads Joe Biden In National Popular Vote
President Donald Trump now leads Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote by one point, according to the SundayExpress/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday.
The poll found that 46 percent of likely voters nationwide support Trump while 45 percent support Biden.
The poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent, which means the results indicate a statistical tie between Trump and Biden. The poll surveyed voters in the wake the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden on September 29. Trump announced that he tested positive for Chinese coronavirus in the early hours of Friday, October 2, the last day of the poll.
With four weeks and two days until the November 3, 2020, general election, the poll results provide encouraging news to the Trump campaign after the announcement early Friday morning that the president had been diagnosed with Chinese coronavirus and is currently hospitalized and being treated at Walter Reed Hospital.
The poll released by the same polling firm one month earlier on showed Trump with a three point lead over Biden, 48 percent to 45 percent, indicating a two point drop for Trump, though Bidens support has not increased.
An IBD/TIPP Poll released on Friday, which is included in the polling average, shows Biden with a three point lead over Trump in the national popular vote.
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Us Election 2020 Polls: Who Is Ahead
BBC News
Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.
The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.
As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.
We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.
Trump Lead In Iowa Poll Rattles Democrats But Biden Still Leads Nationally
- Candidates compete for Iowa but other states offer big prizes
While Joe Biden is handily beating Donald Trump in national polls, two days out from election day, a new poll from Iowa on Saturday night showed the president up by seven points.
As Trump enjoyed the same Iowa lead over Hillary Clinton days before he won the 2016 election with narrow victories in key midwest states, the news could well rattle Democrats anxiously awaiting Tuesdays decision.
In the poll, conducted by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom between 26 and 29 October, Trump led by 48% to 41% for Biden. In September, the same poll showed the two men tied at 47%.
Four years ago, Trump won Iowa by 9.4 points. The Selzer poll involved 814 likely voters and had a 3.4% margin-of-error. J Ann Selzer, the polling companys president, said men and political independents continued to support Trump.
The president is holding demographic groups that he won in Iowa four years ago, and that would give someone a certain level of comfort with their standing, Selzer told the Register. Theres a consistent story in 2020 to what happened in 2016.
Selzer added that as neither candidate hits 50%, theres still some play here. But she also said data indicated 94% of likely voters had decided which way to vote, including 98% of Biden supporters and 95% of Trump supporters, and a mere 4% of likely voters said they were still persuadable.
Trump did not seem concerned.
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