Trump’s Approval Rating Is Higher Than Only Three Presidents At The Same Point In Term
With slightly over a month left in office, President Donald Trump currently has a higher approval rating than just three other presidents, at the same point in their terms, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by Five Thirty Eight, has been tracking Trump’s and other presidents’ approval ratings since the beginning of their terms, using averages from various polls conducted across the U.S.
According to the poll, on his 1,425th day in office, Trump currently has an approval rating of 43.3 percent, and a disapproval rating of 52.5 percent. The poll also shows the approval and disapproval ratings for several other past presidents, and indicates that Trump’s approval rating is higher than only three other presidents, on their 1,425th day in office.
The three presidents are George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter and Lyndon B. Johnson.
Bush had an approval rating of 41.9 percent on his 1,425th day, according to the poll. Carter had 33.7 percent. Johnson, who assumed the presidency after the assassination of John F. Kennedy and was in office from 1963 to 1969, had 38 percent on that day.
Past presidents such as Obama, Clinton, Bush, Nixon, Reagan and Johnson all received lower disapproval ratings than Trump at the same point in history.
Trump Approval Rating By State 2021
The presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. were introduced in the late 1930s by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president during their term. Approval ratings are determined by polling given to a sample of people.
Like most surveys, poll results may be inaccurate due to samples that self-select. However, statisticians generally accept the approval rating as a factual indicator of the peoples feelings about the president.
As of April 2020, President Trumps approval rate is 46.0% and his disapproval is at 49.6%.
United States Presidential Approval Rating
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In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were first conducted by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president of the United States during their term. An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. Typically, an approval rating is given to a politician based on responses to a poll in which a sample of people are asked whether they approve or disapprove of that particular political figure. A question might ask: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the current president is handling their job as president?”
Like most surveys that measure opinions, individual poll results may be inaccurate. Many unscientific approval rating systems exist that show inaccurate statistics. Examples that self select, such as online questions are of this type however, the aggregate approval rating is generally accepted by statisticians, as a statistically valid indicator of the comparative changes in the popular United States mood regarding a president.
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Six Theories Of Joe Bidens Crumbling Popularity
The presidents approval ratings keep falling. The question is why.
About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.
The biggest mystery in American politics right nowand perhaps the most consequential oneis how Joe Biden became so unpopular.
Biden began his presidency moderately popular: At the start, Quinnipiac Universitys polling found that 53 percent of Americans approved of him and 36 percent did not. Todays numbers are the mirror image: In a Quinnipiac poll released yesterday, 36 percent approve, while 53 percent disapprove. FiveThirtyEights average of polls finds him doing slightly better42.8 to 51.7but still in a consistent slide since the end of July. The numbers are very polarized, but Republicans have always disapproved strongly of Biden the big difference here is erosion among Democrats and independents.
This reversal could have wide-ranging effects. Biden still hopes to pass a massive social-spending program, for which he needs uniform Democratic support. Depending on their understanding of the causes for the slide, members of Congress might defect. Bidens unpopularity may already have cost Democrats the Virginia governorship and nearly sunk Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey too. If Biden is this unpopular in a year, congressional Democrats will be entirely swamped in the midterms.
Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
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Approval Ratings By State
Approval ratings vary greatly by state and can indicate how a state will vote in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. Since his inauguration in January 2017, President Trumps net approval has decreased in every state. President Trumps approval rating is decreasing in important states that he won in his 2016 election, including swing states and states that are consistently Republican in every election. The three key states Trump had in his 2016 election are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which currently have approval ratings under 50%.
Below are each states approval ratings for President Trump as of February 2020. Data is from a poll by the Morning Consult.
- Net approval since Trump took office has decreased by 18 points
Polls Put Trumps Approval Rating Lower
Despite the recent decline in Biden’s approval, Trump’s ratings were lower during his time in office.
“Biden’s approval rating has clearly taken a turn for the worse in the past several weeks, but he is still faring better than Trump at this point in their presidencies,” Burden said. “Trump had one of the lowest and steadiest approval ratings of any modern president.”
FiveThirtyEight put the polling average for Trump’s approval rating at 38.8% on Sept. 9, 2017, his first year in office. The lowest point of his term came on Dec. 16, 2017, with an average approval rate of 36.4%.
This claim is also wrong looking only at the YouGov poll.
YouGov reported Trumps approval rating never increased far above 40% and reached a term low of 34% in a poll conducted Nov. 10-14, 2017.
In other words, Trump’s low is well below Biden’s current level in YouGov polling.
Bidens Approval Rating Is Trumps In Reverse
Support from a slim majority might be all President Biden can expect and maybe its all he needs.
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President Biden entered the White House last month with a broadly positive approval rating but well shy of the two-thirds of Americans who expressed support for his former boss, Barack Obama, when he took office 12 years ago.
In fact, Bidens net approval rating is lower than that of any incoming president since the dawn of modern polling, except for his predecessor, Donald Trump. Its just another clear sign that weve entered a new era of partisanship: Media fragmentation and the hard-line politics it has helped foster may make it impossible for any leader to become a true consensus figure.
But it also bears noting that Bidens approval rating is basically a reverse image of Trumps. In addition to being loathed by Republicans and embraced by Democrats, hes firmly in positive territory among independents who had consistently disapproved of Trumps performance.
A Monmouth University poll out last week found that 54 percent of Americans gave Bidens performance positive marks, including nine in 10 Democrats and a plurality of independents, who approved by a 17-percentage-point margin . But among Republicans, his numbers were upside down. Just 15 percent approved, and 70 percent disapproved.
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The Approval And Disapproval Of The Trump Administration
The average approval rating for a president’s first month in office is 42%, but Trump’s is only 40%. It’s worse than the lowest first month approval rating. The strong disapproval of Trump is stronger than it was for Obama, according to the poll. George W. Bush faced harsher disapproval in the last year of his presidency.
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Biden Approval Ratings Slip To 42% Lowest For Any 1st Term President Except Trump
AUSTIN The latest national NBC News poll reveals a majority of Americans currently disapprove of President Joe Bidens job performance just nine months into his presidency.
The poll shows that 42% of adults say they approve of Bidens overall job as president a decline of seven points since August. This is compared to 54% who say they disapprove of the presidents job, which is up six points since August.
Fifty percent of Americans give Biden low marks for overall competence and uniting the country, while 60% also view Bidens stewardship on the economy negatively.
In comparison to August, the president is seven points down, with only 40% of Americans approving of the way he has handled the economy, and 51% approving of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
The survey finds seven in 10 adults, including almost half of Democrats, believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
When asked about the countrys future, only 41% of respondents in the poll say Americas best years are ahead, while 53% say the opposite.
Bidens low standing has also affected his party: Democrats are now behind Republicans on matters like handling the economy, inflation and immigration. They have also lost ground on issues like education and coronavirus.
Bidens approval rating in this poll is lower than any other modern first-year presidents at a similar point in time according to Gallups historical data, with the exception of Donald Trump .
Looking Ahead to 2022
Gop Is Energized But Trump Cancel Culture Poses A Threat
The former president, tightening his grip on the party as a haphazard kingmaker, threatens Republican incumbents and endorses questionable candidates.
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PHOENIX As the countrys Republican governors met this week, there was an unmistakable air of celebration in the conference rooms and cocktail parties marking their annual postelection conference. Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin of Virginia was swarmed with well wishers and favor seekers who believed his victory in a liberal-leaning state offered the party a road map for next years midterm elections.
Out of earshot of the reporters and donors congregating amid the palm trees and cactuses of the Arizona Biltmore resort, however, a more sober, less triumphant and all-too-familiar conversation was taking place among the governors: What could be done about Donald J. Trump?
In a private meeting of the Republican Governors Associations executive committee, Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland brought up Mr. Trumps campaign of retribution against incumbent Republicans he dislikes an effort that appears to be escalating, as the former president pushes former Senator David Perdue of Georgia to challenge Gov. Brian Kemp.
The Republicans most willing to speak frankly about Mr. Trump were those open to 2024 presidential runs.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
Quinnipiac Trump Approval Rating: 38 Percent
In early September Quinnipiac found that only 38 percent of those polled approved of Trump as president, compared to 54 percent who disapproved and 8 percent who werent sure.
In early July the universitys polling arm found Trump with a 40 percent approval rating, similar to what it was in June.
The same poll found that 48 percent of those polled disapprove strongly of Trump, compared to just 27 percent of people who approve strongly of him.
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