Sunday, May 12, 2024

Latest Posts

Will Trump Win In 2020 Odds

Will Trump Run In 2024 Odds

Gravitas: Here’s why Donald Trump could win the 2024 Presidential Race

The exact odds on whether or not Trump will run in 2024 are hard to come by, but its a near certainty at this point. Its likely that no online sportsbook would take the bet, or would give large plus-money odds on him not running. Right now, Trump is the most likely candidate to win the Republican primary, followed closely by Ron DeSantis. Everyone else is +1400 or longer, and potential candidates like Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo have odds +2000 or longer .

Basically, if a betting website gave you anything less than +1000 on Trump not running in 2024, dont take the bet. The odds on Trump running in 2024 is close to a 100% likelihood.

Favorites To Win The 2024 Us Presidential Election

Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.

Those odds have shifted massively, and Trump is now tied with DeSantis for the lead as 2024 U.S. presidential election favorite at +300 . Biden has now dropped to third place at +600 , while Harris has plummeted all the way to fourth place at +1,400 .

Other presidential betting favorites for 2024 include governor of California Gavin Newsom Trump’s VP Mike Pence , and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, who are tied at +2,500 .

Where Does Trump Fit In The Republican Party

Trump is a populist who will adopt part of the publics opinion to get into office. His appeals to the people make voters who are outside of the elite class feel like theyre being fought for in Washington. It makes no difference to those voters that Trump is part of the elite they resent. It makes no difference to Trump and other populists, either.

Although Trump has served a term as president, he still positions himself as a political outsider. In his 2020 campaign, he continued running as an outsider despite his term as president. So even though he could join the Republican establishment, he behaves like a conservative outsider.

In that way, hes the evolution of the Reagan conservatives who gained a foothold in the Republican Party in the late 1970s and early 1980s. They were the first generation of mainstream Republicans who exaggerated moral issues to scare voters into voting for them. Proposing over-the-top obscenity laws and claiming America was falling apart was part of the new wave of rhetoric voters recognize as normal today.

Trump has pushed past exaggeration into creating his own reality. Hes the next step of a brach of conservatism concerned with securing power at any cost.

Also Check: Don Trump Jr Email Address

Ron Desantis’ Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election

The biggest riser on the presidential election odds board is DeSantis, who was +6,600 a year ago, +550 at the start of July, and is now at +300 . The 43-year-old remains coy about whether he will run for President but has become a Republican firebrand figure for his laissez-faire policies during the COVID-19 pandemic and his enactment of the Stop WOKE Act.

In the annual Western Conservative Summits straw poll taken last month, 71% of participants said they wanted DeSantis to run for president in 2024, compared to 67% for Trump.

While in the past, Trump has suggested that DeSantis would be unlikely to run against him, things may have changed. DeSantis has now amassed more than $100 million in his fundraising coffers and has declined to ask Trump for a reelection endorsement in Florida.

With Trump having a history of handing out endorsements based on loyalty, DeSantis refusing to kiss the ring could be a sign that he’s seriously considering running against him.

Will Trump Be Reelected Odds

Will Trump Win Reelection? His 2020 Odds Are Pretty High
  • Before Sending Articles Vote: -120
  • After Sending Articles Vote: -135

Trump is now listed at -135 odds to win the 2020 presidential election. When converted to an implied probability, his odds indicate that theres a 57.45% chance Trump will be reelectedan all-time high for any candidate running this cycle.

For comparison, Trump began 2019 with +150 odds, a roughly 40% chance, and previously hit a new high with -120, 54.55% chance, before today.

The House of Representatives approved a resolution Wednesday to send the articles of impeachmentabuse of power, obstruction of Congressto the Senate, paving the way for Trumps impeachment trial to begin.

As a result, Trumps heavily favored impeachment odds paid out to bettors.

The 228-193 vote, mostly across party lines, comes after House Majority Speaker Nancy Pelosi delayed sending the articles nearly a month after the impeachment vote in an attempt to pressure the Republican-controlled Senate into calling witnesses against the President. It remains undecided whether witnesses will be called to testify.

House Democrats will formally march to the articles of impeachment to the Senate later this afternoon, and Senators are expected to be sworn-in on Thursday by Chief Justice John Roberts.

If the Democrats want to improve their chances of beating Trump, then they need to call an audibleand fastbecause the current playbook isnt yielding any positive results.

Read Also: What Did Trump Say About Immigrants

What To Monitor: Polling Data

Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now , candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. Thats why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.

As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.

For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:

Trumps Reelection Odds Hit All

In a year thats certain to be filled with uncertainty, the 2020 presidential election betting market has made one thing abundantly clear.

You cant stump the Trump.

At least that isin essencewhat people putting money where their mouth is think when real money is wagered on President Donald Trumps reelection odds at political betting sites.

Public bettors appear to be losing confidence with Democrats current strategy, whether its impeaching him or beating him on Nov. 3, 2020. And last nights poorly moderated Democratic primary debate coupled with the articles of impeachment being sent to the Senate today has caused a spike in Trumps chances of winning a second term.

According to the oddsmakers at Bovada Sportsbook, Trump has remained the odds-on favorite since the beginning of the primary election cycle. Heres a look back at the start of 2019 to see how Trumps chances of winning a second term have performed.

Also Check: Is There A Donald Trump Coin

Pet Cremation Las Vegas

Donald Trumps odds to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election took a hit after the FBI searched his Mar-a-Lago estate Monday in Palm Beach, Florida. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis briefly replaced.

Those odds have shifted massively and Trump is now leading the field as the 2024 U.S. presidential election favorite at +275 , followed closely by DeSantis at +300. Trump flirtation with 2024 run growing more serious | The Hill. Jul 05, 2022 . Former President Trump is holding discussions about announcing a 2024 campaign, sources told The Hill, with some current and former advisers believing it is a matter of when, not if, Trump will lau.

An unnamed advisor suggested he wouldn’t runin2024 at the age of 82. “If Biden is elected,” a prominent adviser to the campaign said, “he’s going to be 82 years old in four years and he won’t be.

ai candlestick chart

Trump Betting Odds Faqs

US Election: Huge clue about who will win

The odds of Trump winning in 2024 are quite good, with his chances sitting between +200 and +300 depending on the sportsbook you choose. Of course, that means you can clean up bigly if he wins!

While many mainstream media pundits and Democratic politicians spent countless hours warning that Dictator Donald would use the coronavirus to declare martial law and cancel the November 2020 Presidential election, that did not happen. However, you could get odds on whether or not the election would be delayed by COVID-19 at some sportsbooks.

While some books might offer these kinds of props, they are subjective in nature, and are thus problematic. Most sports betting sites offering Trump odds will not host such lines, and we dont recommend risking any cash on subjective outcomes.

Currently, no. However, there were at one time. When Trump initiated nuclear disarmament talks with Little Rocket Man Kim Jong Un of North Korea, sportsbooks offered Nobel odds for The Donald. Trump was nominated for seven Nobel Peace Prizes in his four years as President.

Read Also: How Unpopular Is Donald Trump

Will Trump Run After Search By Fbi

On August 8, 2022, the FBI conducted a controversial raid on Trumps Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. This, naturally, has been criticized by the GOP as being politically motivated and baseless, while the Democrats have seized on the events in an effort to prevent a possible Trump 2024 campaign. Whether the FBI found any evidence of any crimes and whats going to happen if they did remains to be seen.

However, as the aftermath of the Trump FBI raid plays out, you can expect election betting sites to have odds on various outcomes thereof. In the immediate aftermath, these events have boosted FL. Gov. Ron DeSantis GOP nomination chances for 2024, but only by a few points. Trump is still the favorite to get the nomination at most sites, though DeSantis is favored overall to win the presidency at this time. But theres still a long time to go.

Can I Bet On Donald Trump 2024 Election Odds Now

If you want to make as much money wagering on The Donald as possible, nows the time to place your wagers on his chances to win the 2024 Presidential election. Trump odds to win the GOP party nomination in 2024 are trending at +100 at Bovada and +120 at BetOnline.

For the general election in 2024, Trump payouts are even better. At Bovada, he has odds of +275 to win, while at BetOnline, he is trending at +325. Obviously, if you want to wager on The Donald right now, you should do so at BetOnline.

Recommended Reading: What Is The Current Approval Rating For Trump

The Odds Of A Trump Win 19 Per Cent: 338canada Election Forecast

Philippe J. Fournier: The current map shows a distinct advantage towards Joe Biden. But any victory will ultimately come down to three crucial states.

By Philippe J. FournierOctober 13, 2020

Trump waves to the crowd as he leaves after speaking during a campaign event at the Orlando Sanford International Airport on Oct. 12, 2020 in Sanford, Florida

The first presidential debate has not had the desired effect for President Donald Trump according to the data made public since early October. His own COVID-19 infection and hospitalization did not bring about a sympathy boost in the polls as many had hypothesized last week. Quite the opposite, it appears Joe Biden has solidified his position as the favourite to win the Nov. 3 presidential election south of the border.

The national polls had Biden ahead by an average margin of 6 to 8 points before the debate. As of this writing, the 338Canada presidential forecast has Biden leading by nine points on the national level:

However, while a Trump victory with the current numbers would be an upset, it would still not be a one-in-a-century or -millennium event: The 338Canada model has Biden winning the Electoral college in 81 per cent of all simulations meaning Trumps chances at re-election remain at around 19 per cent, roughly the odds a dice roll.

Lets look at three crucial states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Gamblers Outside The Us Take Presidential Odds On A Wild Ride

Trump 2020 Presidential Election Odds Pres Trump against the deep state

Betting on the election is not legal in the United States. But elsewhere, the odds swung wildly between President Trump and Joe Biden as bettors tried to stay a step ahead of prognosticators.

  • Send any friend a story

    As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. Anyone can read what you share.

    Give this article

While voters throughout the country were glued to their TVs and reflexively refreshing news and political sites on Tuesday night, a few of the cannier ones were paying more attention to something else. The betting odds.

You cannot bet legally on political races in the United States, but in Britain and elsewhere there is a thriving market as bettors look to make money on whether Candidate A or Candidate B wins a big race.

Many, many bettors are following the race for the presidency between Donald Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. They are consuming a wide variety of data, and their collective wisdom, as reflected in where they put their money, can move the betting lines quickly. As a result, betting odds can be a canary in a coal mine, catching on to a surge by one candidate before some pundits even notice.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, political bettors, at least those in jurisdictions where they could bet legally, went on a wild ride.

Last week, an unidentified bettor wagered a million pounds, or about $1.3 million, on Biden on Betfair. If successful, the bet would return the million, plus 540,000 pounds more .

Read Also: Why Is Trump So Bad

Trumps Presidential Approval Rating Has Been Stubbornly Low

Head-to-head polling between Trump and any prospective Democratic nominee seems nearly useless at this point. Aside from Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, many Americans havent yet formed their opinions on the various Democrats seeking their partys nomination.

But presidential approval ratings have always been strongly linked to voting behavior, and everybody knows Trump. Here is the RealClearPolitics average of the presidents approval rating, from the start of his presidency to now:

Trump has been consistently unpopular throughout his first two years. At his best, so far, he was 7 points more unpopular than popular. A recent uptick has swiftly eroded. And as Voxs Ezra Klein wrote last summer, this has been in defiance of a relatively solid economy:

Trumps poll numbers are probably 20 points below where a president would typically be with consumer sentiment as high as it is now, says John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University who has done work benchmarking presidential approval to economic indicators.

So here, then, is what we can say: Judged on the economy, which is the traditional driver of presidential approval, Donald Trumps poll numbers should be much, much higher than they are now. Far from finding a winning strategy, he seems to have found a losing one despite holding a winning hand.

Relax A Trump Comeback In 2024 Is Not Going To Happen

Weve seen this presidents type before. They always fade away.

12/10/2020 04:30 AM EST

Altitude is a column by POLITICO founding editor John Harris, offering weekly perspective on politics in a moment of radical disruption.

Donald Trump lost the presidency, but his opponents so far have not achieved the victory they want most: A fatal puncturing of the Trump movement, a repudiation so complete that it severs his astonishing grip on supporters and leaves him with no choice but to slink offstage and into the blurry past.

For now, Trump dominates conversations about both present and future. His outlandish claims that he won the election except for comprehensive fraud have helped raise more than $200 million since Election Day. Many of his partisans share his dream of recapturing the presidency in 2024. For those who despise him, to paraphrase a famous Democratic speech, it seems clear the work goes on, the cause endures, the fear still lives, and the nightmare shall never die.

Except it will die most likely with more speed and force than looks possible today.

There are three primary reasons to be deeply skeptical that Trumps moment of dominating his party and public consciousness will continue long after Jan. 20.

This brings the mind back to the figure who is the most vivid antecedent of Trump: Joe McCarthy.

Sen. Joe McCarthy gestures as he indicates he is not impressed with an answer by Army Secretary Robert Stevens during a hearing May 3, 1954.|AP Photo

Recommended Reading: What Are The Chances Of Trump Being Reelected

Joe Biden’s Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election

President Biden’s approval rating has jumped a bit in recent days, going to 44%, according to the latest Gallup Poll on Thursday. It’s his highest approval rating in a year and comes in the wake of his administration’s landmark student-loan forgiveness announcement.

Biden’s latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him just a 12.82% chance of being re-elected in 2024.

Despite healthy growth in the US job market and relatively low levels of unemployment, the Biden regime continues to face plenty of obstacles. Chief among them are surging inflation, high fuel prices, and global supply chains still hindered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

He’s also dealing with criticism from his Democrat base, who feel like the party is losing key ground on issues like gun reform and abortion. With criticism from all sides, Biden might not even be the party nominee if the Democrats take a beating during the midterms.

Latest 2024 President Odds Movement

Will Trump win the U.S. election? Lessons from 2016 for 2020

Trump and DeSantis are tied in the latest US president odds. The GOP leaders are far in front, and DeSantis actually overtook Trump for a brief period in late June and early July when it looked as though the former president could face criminal charges over the Jan. 6 riots.

Joe Biden, meanwhile, has seen his chances of winning in 2024 edge up recently, from 14.3% to 15.4%. The November mid-term elections should be a good barometer of the voters’ feelings.

The latest president odds movements also show California Gov. Gavin Newsom could impact this race, while Harris has seen her popularity slide. Right now, it looks like the GOP will win the 2024 election. The next question, then, is who will be on the winning ticket?

Also Check: When Will Trump Bomb North Korea

Latest Posts

Popular Articles