Trump Must Win All Of The Swing States Where Biden Leads By 1 To 3 Points
Lets start off by reviewing what the electoral map would look like if the FiveThirtyEight polling averages were exactly on target.
Biden would win all the states Hillary Clinton won last time, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Maines Second District, and Nebraskas Second District. That would give Biden a decisive win with 357 electoral votes.
But when you look a little closer, some of those leads for Biden in key states arent really that large. FiveThirtyEight has him ahead by just 1 to 3 points in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, and Maines Second District.
Poll leads of 1 to 3 points are not safe. Polling errors of that magnitude are common, and several swing state polling averages underestimated Trumps margin by a few points or more in 2016.
Specifically, of the states listed above, the RealClearPolitics averages undershot Trumps margin by 6.5 points in Iowa, 2.7 percentage points in North Carolina, 1 point in Florida, and 0.3 percentage points in Georgia, while they underestimated Clintons margin by 0.5 percentage points in Arizona.
Us Election Results : Joe Biden’s Defeat Of Donald Trump
Georgia recertifies election results, confirming Bidens victory, despite Trumps continued refusal to formally concede
Tue 8 Dec 2020 10.21 GMT Last modified on Thu 21 Jan 2021 03.18 GMT
Tue 8 Dec 2020 10.21 GMT Last modified on Thu 21 Jan 2021 03.18 GMT
The race for the presidency is usually decided in a small number of key battleground states that switch party allegiance between elections.
2 months ago
What Top Psychics Have To Say
The U.S. presidential election of 2020 has been the closest race the country has ever seen, and millions of people from all over the world have been intently following the results over the last two days. One thing is clear that large margin that nearly every major poll predicted Biden would have is nowhere to be found. And we all remember how wrong they got it back in 2016.
We decided to interview a few of the top psychics we know to hear what they predict for the upcoming election.
Read Also: Did Trump Cut Funding To The Cdc
Trump To Win Landslide In 2020
Statistical models point that way.
Donald Trump has faced massive criticism for four years. It seemed that the Access Hollywood tape would destroy him. More recently, his former staff members have spoken for the first time. Theres an organized traditional Republican anti-Trump group, called the Lincoln Project, already running ads against him. And while Republicans in Congress dont dare to speak against him, one did: Sen. Lisa Murkowski, of Alaska. She says shes not sure she can vote for him.That would ordinarily be bad news for an incumbent. People think presidents are always re-elected, but its not a sure thing. Less than 50 years ago, we had two incumbent presidents defeated, back-to-back: Ford and Carter. JFK didnt get a second term, of course. Nor did Nixon. LBJ decided not to run. In fact, we had a string of five one-term presidents: JFK, LBJ, NIXON, FORD, CARTER. GHW Bush also lost his second run. Also, weve never had three consecutive 8-year presidents, so it might seem that the odds are against Trump.But in its Capitol Report, MarketWatch says Trump is a shoo-in.
Prof. Meyer says that the Trump name will be synonymous with Caesar, with future leaders using the title, as we saw in Germany , and Czar in Russia.Earlier, Steve Bannon forecast that Trump would win with 400 electoral votes.
That was a few years ago, but Bannon repeated the claim this year.There are a number of models that point to a Trump landslide, according to Politico.
Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
Read Also: What’s The Latest On Donald Trump
He Predicted Trumps Win In 2016 Now Hes Ready To Call 2020
Most historians just study the past. But Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the future.
Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But weve been here before , and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not. The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely forecaster who predicted Mr. Trumps victory in 2016 and also prophesied the president would be impeached. Thats two for two. But Professor Lichtmans record goes much deeper. In 1980, he developed a presidential prediction model that retrospectively accounted for 120 years of U.S. election history. Over the past four decades, his system has accurately called presidential victors, from Ronald Reagan in 84 to, well, Mr. Trump in 2016.
In the video Op-Ed above, Professor Lichtman walks us through his system, which identifies 13 keys to winning the White House. Each key is a binary statement: true or false. And if six or more keys are false, the party in the White House is on its way out.
So what do the keys predict for 2020? To learn that, youll have to watch the video.
Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at American University.
How Trump And Biden Supporters Would React To Victory And Defeat
When asked about their reactions to the outcome of the November 2020 election, voters say they would have more positive reactions to Biden winning the election than to Trump being reelected president. And voters reactions to Trumps possible reelection are more intense both positively and negatively than to a Biden victory.
About half of registered voters say they would be excited or relieved if Biden was elected president, while 47% say they would be disappointed or angry.
Among voters who say they would react positively to a Biden victory, far more would be relieved than excited . Among those who expect to react negatively, more say they would be disappointed than angry .
More voters say they would react to a Trump victory with negative than positive emotions. Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump wins reelection than if Biden is elected president .
Yet somewhat more voters also say they would be excited by a Trump victory than a Biden victory.
Although both Trump and Biden supporters express positive reactions to their own candidate winning the November election, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say to say they would be excited if their candidate won the 2020 election than Biden supporters are of their own candidate.
Recommended Reading: Will Trump Be Reelected In 2020
Trump May Have Something Else In Mind
This would be Trumps path to a legitimate victory. But he may also have something else up his sleeve, based on the expectation that mail votes will be more Democratic-leaning while in-person votes will be more Republican-leaning.
Trump has heavily implied that he hopes to declare victory on election night and then, if slower counts of mail ballots tip the key states toward Biden, he will attempt to disparage those mail votes as fraudulent or illegitimate.
Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd.
Donald J. Trump
If Trump goes down this path, he will be trying to erase millions of legitimately cast mail votes in an attempt to effectively steal the election from Biden.
You might be comforted by the idea that state election officials are too professional to let this happen. But the president is technically named by the Electoral College and those electors themselves can be named by state legislatures, which in several key states are controlled by Republicans.
Theres a catch for Trump, though. Due to the differing ways states carry out their vote counts, the scenario that has been called a red mirage a seeming Republican lead on election night that gradually vanishes as more Democratic mail votes are slowly counted is only likely to occur in a few key swing states this year. Most notably, its the classic trio of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which have Republican legislatures.
Trump Wins Texas Crushing Blue Texas Dreams Once Again
Recent polls have showed a surprisingly tight race, and astronomical turnout the state surpassed the total number of votes cast in all of 2016 nearly a week before Election Day.
Democrats started to dream about winning Texas after 2008, when Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson to carry Texass biggest urban counties. Republicans started to warn about it in 2013, when Obama campaign veterans to find and empower hundreds of thousands of non-White Texans who didnt vote.
Then came Donald Trump. In 2016, after dispatching Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas to win the Republican nomination, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton here by nine percentage points a smaller margin than any Republican nominee since Bob Dole. It got closer because of Trumps weakness in the states fast-growing cities and suburbs, which optimistic Republicans saw as a fluke. Two years later, Democrats picked up two House seats, sliced away at the GOPs state legislative majority and came within five points of winning several statewide races, including the one for Cruzs seat.
Mississippi voters approved a new state flag design with a magnolia flower on a blue background and red and yellow outer stripes retiring a 126-year-old banner that featured the Confederate battle emblem.
Also Check: What Is Trump’s Approval Rating
Donald Trump Is Well Behind Joe Biden In Polling For The 2020 Us Election But Dont Count Him Out Just Yet
On November 7, 2016, as millions of Americans went to the polls to vote for their 45th President, Hillary Clinton had reason to be confident.
The first female presidential nominee held a lead in the majority of final polls and liberals across the country prepared to breathe a sigh of relief Donald Trump looked set to fall one step short of the White House. Except he didnt.
‘blue Wall’ Rebuilt With Suburban Votes
Trump suggested throughout his campaign that Biden would “destroy the beautiful suburbs,” but it turned out many suburbanites disagreed.
Biden won back a number of crucial Midwest states that Clinton lost to Trump in 2016 largely thanks to suburban voters. The cluster of historically Democrat-won states, dubbed the blue wall, include three of the five major battleground states this election cycle.
“We saw a consistent pattern across the country, in both close states and states that weren’t so close, that Biden made significant strides compared to Clinton’s performance four years ago in suburbs, predominantly affluent suburbs, of major metro areas,” Wasserman said.
In Wisconsin, the divide between the state’s rural and urban populations was defined, as 42 Wisconsin counties, many small and rural, cast more ballots for Trump than in 2016. Biden won Wisconsin by bolstering support in the populous suburbs of Milwaukee and Madison, despite average turnout in the cities themselves. Biden erased Trump’s entire 2016 margin in Wisconsin in just the counties surrounding Milwaukee, Wasserman said.
That same divide made Michigan competitive. Biden made gains in counties like Kent, where Grand Rapids is located, and the Detroit metropolitan area, though he underperformed Clinton in the city of Detroit. Trump improved his margins statewide, but not enough to surpass Bidens lead.
You May Like: What Is Donald Trump’s Credit Score