Us Election 2020 Polls: Who Is Ahead
BBC News
Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.
The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.
As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.
We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.
Voter Engagement And Candidate Preferences
Just as Biden holds an advantage over Trump among all registered voters in the current survey, his lead over Trump looks similar across a variety of voter engagement metrics ranging from about 8 to 12 percentage points.
Biden has a lead among voters who have thought a lot about the election , as well as among those who say it really matters who wins the presidential election this November .
The Democratic candidate also leads Trump among those who say they are extremely motivated to vote, and among those who say they follow what is going on in government and public affairs most of the time .
And among validated voters voters whose record of voting in the presidential election were matched to a state-administered voter file in the two most recent national elections, Biden outperforms Trump among each group: 8 percentage points among 2016 validated voters and 12 points among 2018 validated voters .
Turnout Error B: The Pandemic Effect
The suggested problem
The once-in-a-generation coronavirus pandemic dramatically altered how people intended to vote, with Democrats disproportionately concerned about the virus and using early voting and Republicans more likely to vote in person on Election Day itself. In such an unusual year with so many people voting early for the first time and some states changing their procedures its possible that some Democrats who thought they had, or would, cast a ballot did not successfully do so. A related point is that Trump and the Republican Party conducted a more traditional get-out-the-vote effort in the campaigns final weeks, with large rallies and door-to-door canvassing. These may have further confounded likely voter models.
Is this mainly an election polling problem, or would this be of wider concern to issue pollsters as well?
To the extent that polls were distorted by the pandemic, the problems may be confined to this moment in time and this specific election. Issue polling would be unaffected.
To the extent that polls were distorted by the pandemic, the problems may be confined to this moment in time and this specific election. Issue polling would be unaffected. The pandemic may have created greater obstacles to voting for Democrats than Republicans, a possibility that polls would have a hard time assessing. These are not problems we typically confront with issue polling.
What could we do to fix it?
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Donald Trump Beats Joe Biden In 2024 Election Poll
A new poll has placed former President Donald Trump as the favorite to win the 2024 U.S. election, slightly edging Democratic incumbent Joe Biden.
A national Emerson College Poll found that if the two men were to go head-to-head in 2024, Trump would be slightly favored with 47 percent against Biden’s 46 percent.
Biden has split job approval among registered voters, the poll found. It said that around 47 percent disapprove and 46 percent approve of the work he is doing as president. The other 7 percent were undecided.
Of the Democrats polled, 60 percent said they would see Biden as the 2024 presidential nominee, while 39 percent said they would rather it be someone else.
Of the Republican voters polled, 67 percent said they would vote for Trump in a hypothetical GOP primary with seven other candidates, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis , former Vice President Mike Pence, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and former South Carolina Governor and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
When placed head-to-head in a hypothetical 2024 presidential race, Biden is favorite to win against all of the other Republican challengers, including DeSantis.
With regards to the 2022 midterms, the poll found that 71 percent of Democrats and 69 of Republicans said they were very likely to vote in the contest.
There have also be other hints Trump will run from other GOP allies.
What Happened In The Election
Most voters nationwide also say that their own vote and the votes in their state were recorded and counted correctly. This includes most Democrats, Republicans and independents alike. So, much of the doubt among Trump voters appears to stem from a belief about things that they feel happened with other peoples’ ballots, including in other states.
As we have seen on many topics throughout his presidency, the president’s messaging here is picked up by his supporters. Among those who see Mr. Biden as not legitimate, an overwhelming 93% of them echo the president’s rhetoric, saying that “millions of ballots were cast illegally.” Similarly large percentages of those who don’t see Mr. Biden as legitimate say that voting equipment, software and/or ballots were “manipulated,” and that overall, “Donald Trump got more votes” but it “was not reported.”
Also differing from the view of most voters, the president’s backers believe the mainstream media did not report the results of the election accurately.
The skeptical view of the election results among Trump voters does not extend down ballot, however, as nearly all of them believe Republicans who won gains in the House and won contested Senate races did so legitimately.
And in yet another sign of how difficult it may be to bring Americans together, most Trump voters reject the idea of finding common ground with Mr. Biden and his supporters, while most Biden voters say now is time to find common ground with Trump supporters.
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Donald Trump Takes Lead In Hypothetical Election Poll
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Since Mr Trump was ousted from the White House in January he had been rallying his base with speeches promoting the conspiracy theory that he was the rightful winner of last years election. Though he has not formally announced he will run in 2024, new polling data suggests Mr Trump leads Joe Biden in the five key battleground states narrowly lost by the Republican last year Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The poll conducted by Mr Trumps pollster Tony Fabrizio, and obtained by Politico, sees the margins of Mr Trumps lead range from three points in Georgia to 12 in Michigan.
Trump Poll Tests His 2024 Comeback Map
The former president is targeting five swing states that are pivotal to his hopes of winning back the White House.
11/23/2021 04:30 AM EST
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As Donald Trump builds out a presidential-campaign-in-waiting, his team is focusing on an electoral strategy that relies on recapturing the five states that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.
The five states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin delivered a total of 73 electoral votes in 2020, enough to produce a decisive Electoral College victory for Biden. Since then, Trump has held four rallies, endorsed dozens of candidates and played a key role in shaping contests that could put his allies in top offices in those states in 2024.
Trumps shadow campaign also recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points. According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.
The poll numbers send a message to those who think Trumps grip on the Republican Party is loosening, said Tony Fabrizio, a top GOP pollster who conducted the surveys for Trumps super PAC, Make America Great Again, Again!
A spokesperson for Trumps political committees said the president is focused on the midterm elections.
By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO and SAM STEIN
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Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
The National Polls Show A Strong Biden Lead
More than a dozen national surveys were released Thursday, all showing Biden in the lead and averaging to something in the high single digits.
His best result came from the USC Dornsife tracking poll and registered a gigantic 12-point lead. Trumps best poll came from Rasmussen, which invariably delivers Republican-leaning results and still showed Biden up 1 point.
All in all, the RealClearPolitics unweighted national average shows Biden up 7.8 points. Crucially, in that average, Biden is over 50 percent so even if every single undecided voter and third-party supporter decided to flock to Trump in a desperate pro-malarkey surge, Biden would still have the lead.
Remarkably, throughout the entire campaign theres been essentially no shot of Trump actually winning more votes than his opponent, and that continues to be true on the eve of the election. But its the states that matter, and in the states, the race is closer.
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Can We Trust The Polls
It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.
Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.
Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.
But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.
Donald Trump Gets Massive Win In New Poll
Former President Donald Trump never conceded to now-President Joe Biden following the contentious 2020 election, and while hes been considerably quieter since he left office than he was when he served as our 45th president, he has been consistently hinting at a possible 2024 run.
This has given Trump supporters some of whom are still hanging on to the very slim hope that the 2020 election might be more closely scrutinized and Trump reinstalled in the White House before Bidens term is up much to look forward to.
Other big names have been floated to be Bidens Republican rival in 2024, however: former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and rockstar Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, among others.
Yet according to recent polling conducted as Biden grappled with the fallout of his disastrous Afghan withdrawal, the biggest crisis of his presidency, no Republican other than Trump has what it takes to beat him.
Respondents to a national Emerson College Poll favored Trump slightly over Biden in a hypothetical 2024 head-to-head matchup, while the rest of the prospective GOP challengers to the incumbent president did not fare so well.
In the Trump-Biden face-off, Trump enjoyed a 1 percent edge over his successor, 47 percent to 46 percent.
The poll of 1,200 registered voters was conducted via phone and online Aug. 30-Sept. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Other than Trump, that is.
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Familiar Demographic Divides In Vote Preferences
In the final weeks leading up to Election Day, Biden holds a 10 percentage point lead over Trump among registered voters in the presidential race . Many of the demographic patterns of support for both candidates are similar to those in the 2016 presidential contest.
Just as was the case four years ago, there is a sizable gender gap in candidate preference: Women voters continue to favor the Democratic candidate for president by 17 percentage points . This is roughly on par with 2016.
In contrast, men are divided. Today, 49% favor Biden while 45% favor Trump. In 2016, men favored Trump by modest margins in preelection polls, as well as among validated 2016 voters.
There are also sizable gaps by race and ethnicity. White voters prefer Trump to Biden , though Biden is faring slightly better among White voters in the current race relative to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
And the sizable Democratic advantages among Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters are just as large for Biden as they were in 2016. Biden currently leads Black voters by 81 percentage points, Hispanic voters by 34 points and Asian voters by 53 points. Note: Surveys are conducted in English and Spanish.
Education is also a dividing line among White voters: College-educated White voters favor Biden by 21 percentage points, while those without a college degree favor Trump by a similar margin.
Joe Judge Wisely Wants Giants Thinking Long
Joe Judge is more focused on building the Giants for long-term success than on buying a quick fix before next weeks NFL trade deadline.
The Giants dont have much cap space available anyway as Nov. 2 approaches. But Judges patient perspective seems to reflect an accurate self-analysis of the 2021 Giants as a team still in rebuild.
Theyre an organization that should be trading their own players to acquire draft picks, not the other way around. Thats if they decide to do anything at all.
I always think long-term, Judge said in a Monday afternoon conference call. Sometimes long-term can to a move you can make immediately at this point. But Im always thinking long term. Ive said this from the beginning: Im not about taking shortcuts into anything. Ive made it very clear in terms of my vision of the team and where I want to go with it being built for long-term success.
The Giants need to return to respectability, and the way to do that is to see through a long-term plan rather than seeking more half-measures or Band-Aids.
Ownership, GM Dave Gettleman and Judge spent a startling amount of money on free agents in the spring, suddenly intent on making a postseason run. But the playoffs arent happening this year, and Judges comments suggest the rebuild commitment might be back on track.
Judge may be prioritizing the long term, but he and his resilient Giants are still trying to win and make the best of this season, as well.
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