Electoral Swing For Each Party In One Map
The Electoral Swing map with composite symbols helps resolve some of the issues described above.
In a single view, you can see whether each party shifted positive or negative in the state or county level. Hollow circles indicate where a party lost votes. Solid circles communicate where a party gained votes.
States shaded with blue indicate a state that swung Democrat in 2020. This provides additional context to the composite symbols, indicating whether the swing in votes resulted in flipping a states electoral votes from the previous election.
County symbol sizes are normalized by the total state vote. This indicates which counties individually are more influential in determining how a state allocates its electoral votes. In the following image, Maricopa County is more prominent since it contributes more votes than any other county in Arizona.
Counties in the Rio Grande Valley are less prominent because they contribute fewer votes than other larger counties in Texas.
And In States He Is Projected To Lose
The point here is that the country is clearly changing. Itâs changing around our political parties and re-forming our understanding of the country. And what worked in this election might not work in the next one, particularly if the singular politics of Trump are not involved.
Despite Flipping 3 Counties Including Duval Democrats Lose Florida
, Reporter, News Service of Florida
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. As he defeated Democrat Joe Biden in Florida, President Donald Trump on Tuesday used a familiar Republican playbook for statewide races: Dominate in rural and mid-sized counties and try to hold down losses in urban areas.
But Trump also was bolstered by a strong showing in Miami-Dade County, where support from Cuban-Americans and other Hispanics helped prevent Biden from running up large margins in the Democrat-rich county.
Trump defeated Biden in 55 of the states 67 counties, losing only one rural county Gadsden, west of Tallahassee, unofficial results show. In all, he beat Biden by about 375,000 votes statewide, compared to a nearly 113,000-vote Florida margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
A large part of that improvement can be attributed to Miami-Dade, where Biden topped Trump by 84,792 votes, according to the unofficial results. That was down from Clintons 290,147-vote margin in Miami-Dade in 2016.
Biden also won by slightly smaller margins than Clinton in Democrat-heavy Broward and Palm Beach counties, but he won by larger margins in Orange and Hillsborough counties. In addition, the Democrat won by relatively small margins in Duval and Pinellas, which both were carried by Trump in 2016. The only other county that flipped to Biden was Seminole, where he won by 7,178 votes.
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How Trump Counties Shifted By Demographics
Mr. Trumps strongest supporters four years ago tended to live in counties with fewer college-educated residents. These counties solidly backed Mr. Trump again in 2020, while many of those with a more educated populace shifted toward Mr. Biden.
The same divide can be seen in the votes from suburban and rural America. Mr. Trump maintained his strong support in many of the countrys less-populous, rural counties while suburban voters collectively swung toward Mr. Biden.
An earlier version of a chart in this article showing shifts in counties with less educated residents excluded some counties and gave an incorrect overall margin. The overall margin shifted about zero points from 2016 to 2020, not three points to the right.
May The Best Model Win
The Exploratory Regression tool builds Ordinary Least SquaresRegression models up to a specified number of variables,using every possible combination of the candidate explanatoryvariables provided. It looks for properlyspecified models. A properly specified model meetsthe requirements of the OLS method, which basically means you cantrust the results.
The analyst starts small, looking for passing models thatinclude three variables. No passing models are found. She excludesexplanatory variables that are rarely significant or are redundantand tries to find a model using combinations of four explanatoryvariables. She finds nothing. When she runs Exploratory Regression lookingfor models with five explanatory variables, she still isn’t gettingany passing models.
The analyst adds a variable to capture the increase in thepercentage of the population that is Hispanic between 2010 and2016.
Before turning back to Exploratory Regression, she thinks sheshould take a look at a map of the region tosee if there are any other variables she might be missing. Rightaway, she notices the large number of Indian reservations in theregion.
While she initially included variables for the black, white,Asian, and Hispanic populations, she did not include the NativeAmerican populationit is a small portion of the population in moststates. But that’s not the case in Arizona and New Mexico, or insouthern Colorado. This could be another important explanatoryvariable.
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Fact Check: Stats Are Twisted On Counties Won By Trump
A list of statistics making the rounds on the internet purports that the numbers should put an end to the argument as to why the Electoral College makes sense.
The facts: The email reads: There are 3,141 counties in the United States. Trump won 3,084 of them. Clinton won 57.
There are 62 counties in New York State. Trump won 46 of them. Clinton won 16.
In the five counties that encompass NYC, Clinton received well over 2 million more votes than Trump. .
FactCheck.org reports that the email numbers might have come from a Nov. 15 Breitbart News article by Michael Patrick Leahy. But the email twists the information.
Leahy wrote that Donald Trump won an overwhelming 7.5 million popular vote victory in 3,084 of the countrys 3,141 counties or county equivalents in Americas heartland.
FactCheck.org notes that Leahy isnt saying that Trump won all 3,084 counties outright just that in those 3,084 counties, Trump won the popular vote by a large margin.
Leahy also wrote that Hillary Clinton, in contrast, had an 8.2 million-vote margin in a narrow band of 52 coastal counties and five county equivalent cities on the west and east coasts.
FactCheck.org found it easy to disprove the emails claim that Trump won all of the 3,084 counties that Leahy looked at in his heartland exercise and that Clinton won only 57 overall.
The fact-checker looked at Texas and Georgia two states that Clinton lost.
United States Presidential Election In New York
The 2016 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party‘s nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana GovernorMike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of StateHillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia SenatorTim Kaine. New York has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.
New York remained a blue state, with Clinton winning with 59.01% of the vote, while Trump received 36.52% of the vote, a 22.49% Democratic margin of victory. However, Trump won more counties, taking 45 counties statewide compared to Clinton’s 17. Trump also flipped 19 counties that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012, tied with Minnesota for the third-most counties flipped in any state only Iowa and Wisconsin had more. Clinton received a smaller vote share than outgoing President Barack Obama had in 2012, while Trump improved on Mitt Romney‘s performance despite losing the state by a large margin.
- Democratic < 5%
- Democratic 510%
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Notable Expressions Phrases And Statements
- “Basket of deplorables“: A controversial phrase coined by Hillary Clinton to describe half of those who support Trump.
- “I’m with her”: Clinton’s unofficial campaign slogan .
- “What, like with a cloth or something?”: Said by Hillary Clinton in response to being asked whether she “wiped” her emails during an August 2015 press conference.
- “Why aren’t I 50 points ahead?”: Question asked by Hillary Clinton during a video address to the Laborers’ International Union of North America on September 21, 2016, which was then turned into an opposition ad by the Trump campaign.
- “When they go low, we go high”: Said by then-first lady Michelle Obama during her Democratic conventionspeech. This was later inverted by Eric Holder.
- “Feel the Bern”: A phrase chanted by supporters of the Bernie Sanderscampaign which was officially adopted by his campaign.
Biden Gained Some Crucial Suburban Counties In States He Leads
Bidenâs victory came as a result of incredible turnout and some gains not in cities that are Democratic strongholds, but also in the suburban counties that often decide U.S. elections.
In Rust Belt states, Biden won back some suburban counties Clinton lost in 2016. In Sun Belt states he won suburban counties that Democrats havenât won in recent elections. And repeating this trend in suburban counties in key states, Biden made up for increased turnout in rural counties where Trump improved his showing from four years ago.
Importantly, those gains in suburban counties extended even into states that Trump ultimately won, such as Ohio and Florida, which is something for both parties to consider in the future.
Bidenâs failure in some other key counties â in Kenosha County, Wisconsin, and MacComb County, Michigan, for instance â is proof that suburbs will be battlegrounds going forward.
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The Claim: Five Statistics About Obama Trump And Biden Appear To Discredit Election Results
On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received 306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY.
Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020.
First, it lists total number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000, Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000.
Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477.
Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19.
Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them.
Fifth, it lists whether each candidate’s political party won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred with Obama and Trump, but not Biden.
“End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple,” wrote a user who shared the meme on . “The 2020 election was RIGGED.”
“Mathematically impossible,” wrote a user who shared it on .
The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment.
How Many States Did Trump Win In 2016
How many states did Trump win in the 2016 election? Donald Trump was elected President of the United States in November 2016. Trump won the electoral vote against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton 304-227. Donald Trump won the vote of 30 states while Hillary Clinton won 20. While some historically Democratic states like California and New York stayed democratic in 2016, Trump won some crucial states that had previously voted for President Obama in 2012, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire were all even between Republicans and Democrats in the 2016 election. Trump ended up winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
PVI is the Cook Partisan Voting Index.This measures how strongly a Unite States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party compared to the nation. For example, if the national average is 49% Republican, and the Republican candidate of a state wins 58% of the two-party share, that state voted nine percentage points more Republican than the country, or R+9.
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This Map Shows How Biden Won Back Pennsylvania In The 2020 Election
- Joe Biden won back Pennsylvania for Democrats in the 2020 election after President Donald Trump carried the state in 2016.
- To do so, he improved upon Clinton’s margins in a range of both blue and red counties.
- He particularly outperformed Clinton in the counties surrounding Philadelphia.
Joe Biden‘s birth state delivered.
To win back Pennsylvania for Democrats in the 2020 presidential election, the president-elect had to improve upon Hillary Clinton‘s 2016 performance across wide swaths of the state.
Biden will beat President Donald Trump in the Keystone State after the Republican incumbent carried Pennsylvania four years ago, according to NBC News. The former vice president leads his GOP opponent by more than 45,000 votes with some ballots outstanding. Trump won Pennsylvania by a similar margin of about 44,000 votes in 2016.
To cause the swing, Scranton native Biden beat Clinton’s margins of victory in a range of both blue and red areas. The eastern part of the state, in particular, appeared to propel Biden’s success. Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes put Biden above the threshold to become president-elect when NBC News projected his victory on Saturday.
The maps below show the county-level win margins for the candidates in 2016 and 2020. This year’s results could still shift as Pennsylvania tallies final ballots.
Still, Trump has so far fared better there than he did in 2016. Clinton carried the county by 67 percentage points.
Florida Ohio And Iowa
The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme.
It’s true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. But those states represent just 29, 18 and six electoral votes, respectively.
Even combined, they represent only 53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votes or the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House.
As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is no reason it’s impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa.
It’s happened before. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lost all three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according to Snopes.
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