They Wrote A Different Script For 2020
The political elites had set the script 2020 was **supposed** to follow months ago.
The Ukraine impeachment farce was supposed to have weakened this President and made him extremely vulnerable. Then a black swan event of a worldwide pandemic unleashed on the world by China caused a massive crisis.
Democrats and their media allies ruthlessly and blatantly used the pandemic to attack Trump from every direction as he sought to guide the country through an unprecedented national emergency.
You must understand: Trump is supposed to have been destroyed by now, his chances at reelection forever lost.
Hes supposed to have approval numbers in the high 20s at best, an increasingly unpopular President under siege, despised and loathed from sea to shining sea.
After impeachment fizzled, the combined might and influence of the top Democrats in Congress, the news media, Hollywood, academia, it was allfocused and centered like a laser for one purpose: keep Donald Trump from being reelected.
This is THE most important script the supposedly powerful American Left had ever written. So much is riding on it being followed to the letter. And the pandemic gave them an important chapter in that script, one they labored to take full and complete advantage of when it came to destroying one Donald John Trump.
To put in the parlance of contemporary pop culture, as Austin Powers lamented in the film The Spy Who Shagged Me, theyve lost their mojo.
Trump Viewed Favorably By More In Iowa Gop Than Chuck Grassley
Trump has always been a polarizing figure in the state the percentage of all Iowans who viewed him favorably topped 50% only once before in polls dating to January 2018. That was in March 2020, just as the coronavirus pandemic began to surge in the U.S.
But he has maintained popularity among Iowa Republicans throughout his time in office, and the vast majority continue to view him favorably.
According to the Registers Iowa Poll, 91% of Iowa Republicans have a favorable view of him and just 7% view him unfavorably. Another 2% are not sure.
Those marks put Trump in league with Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is viewed favorably by 90% of Iowa Republicans. And it surpasses Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, who is viewed favorably by 81% of Iowans.
I did not foresee the day when Donald Trump would be 10 points more popular with Iowa Republicans than the venerable Chuck Grassley, said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.
That Republican goodwill contrasts with Democrats feelings for Trump, 99% of whom view him unfavorably. Just 1% view him favorably.
Independent Iowans are nearly evenly split, with 48% viewing him favorably and 49% viewing him unfavorably. Another 3% are unsure.
Polls Put Trumps Approval Rating Lower
Despite the recent decline in Biden’s approval, Trump’s ratings were lower during his time in office.
“Biden’s approval rating has clearly taken a turn for the worse in the past several weeks, but he is still faring better than Trump at this point in their presidencies,” Burden said. “Trump had one of the lowest and steadiest approval ratings of any modern president.”
FiveThirtyEight put the polling average for Trump’s approval rating at 38.8% on Sept. 9, 2017, his first year in office. The lowest point of his term came on Dec. 16, 2017, with an average approval rate of 36.4%.
This claim is also wrong looking only at the YouGov poll.
YouGov reported Trumps approval rating never increased far above 40% and reached a term low of 34% in a poll conducted Nov. 10-14, 2017.
In other words, Trump’s low is well below Biden’s current level in YouGov polling.
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Republican Senators Launching Ads Attacking Joe Biden
WASHINGTON Two Republican senators have launched ads attacking former Vice President Joe Biden as the Democrat continues to lead President Trump in recent polls.
Arizona Republican Sen. Martha McSally has aired two ads in recent days evoking Biden as a foil, alongside likely Arizona Democratic nominee Mark Kelly.
And Arkansas Republican Sen. Tom Cotton has a new digital spot blasting Biden as “too confused to lead.”
The McSally spots aim to tie Biden to Kelly one argues the pair won’t be able to hold China accountable , while another says that Kelly will “help Joe Biden pass a new government-controlled health insurance system” .
McSally was down big in Fox News recent poll of the Senate race . And Biden led Trump by 4 points in that same poll of the state that Trump won by 3.5 points in 2016.
While that Biden lead is within the margin of error, there are signs that there could be trouble in Arizona at the top of the ticket, as Democratic groups are pushing into the once reliably Republican state.
Meanwhile, Cotton, who has no Democratic opponent in the fall, just released a new digital ad attacking China for “lies” that “spread the China virus across the world,” as well as Biden by rounding up a complication of his recent missteps to argue he’s “too confused to lead.”
The spot, first reported by Breitbart News, will run in Michigan and Iowa as part of an initial, five-figure buy.
Domestic Terrorism Is Seen As The Bigger Threat
With the 20-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks coming up this month, a plurality 44% thinks the country is less safe than it was before the attacks, while 30% say it’s safer and a quarter say about the same.
Politics is at play in this question as well. Two-thirds of Republicans said the U.S. is less safe.
Overall, more believe domestic terrorism 49% is a greater threat than international terrorism 41%.
Almost 7 in 10 Republicans said it was international terrorism, though, that was the bigger threat, while 7 in 10 Democrats said it was domestic terrorism.
Still, the overall number is a big shift from 2002 after 9/11 when by a 56%-to-30% margin in a CBS News poll, people said the opposite.
The survey of 1,241 adults was conducted Aug. 26 through Tuesday, via landline and mobile telephones. Survey questions were available in English and Spanish. The margin of error of the full sample was 3.8 percentage points. The margins of error for the subsets of Democrats, Republicans and independents were all larger.
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Why Has Bidens Approval Rating Gotten So Low So Quickly
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : President Bidens approval ratings are underwater 49.2 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as president while 44.6 percent approve, according to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker.1
This has been true for a while now, too. Since Aug. 30, more Americans have disapproved of Biden than have approved of him.
So, lets tackle Bidens declining approval rating in three parts. First, what do we know about why his approval rating has dipped? Second, how should we think about this current dip? That is, is it unusually large or actually pretty normal? And, finally, how much do presidents approval ratings matter, especially at this point in their presidency?
OK, first up, why has Bidens approval rating dipped?
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Continues To Climb Ahead Of Election
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slowly climbed with less than three months to go until the 2020 presidential election, according to polling data.
The FiveThirtyEight approval rating tracker shows that the president’s popularity rose almost two percentage points from a low of 40.1 percent at the end of July to 41.9 percent as of Wednesday evening.
Trump’s disapproval rating has also fallen over the past month, despite criticism of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the economy’s rebound from related shutdown measures.
At the end of July, the president’s disapproval rating stood at a little more than 55 percent, but has since dropped to 53.9 percentputting his net disapproval rating at 12 points.
Although Trump’s net disapproval rating is still high, it’s a marked improvement on the beginning of July, when the president’s net unpopularity ranking stood at almost 16 points.
Individual polls have looked similarly positive for Trump, with the Rasmussen approval index showing 47 percent of likely voters approve of the commander-in-chief’s record as 51 percent disapprove.
Another survey of U.S. adults released by YouGov earlier this week found that Trump had a net disapproval rating of 8 points. Fifty-two percent of respondents said they were unhappy with the president’s record, and 44 percent told pollsters they approved.
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Trump Approval Rating By State 2021
The presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. were introduced in the late 1930s by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president during their term. Approval ratings are determined by polling given to a sample of people.
Like most surveys, poll results may be inaccurate due to samples that self-select. However, statisticians generally accept the approval rating as a factual indicator of the peoples feelings about the president.
As of April 2020, President Trumps approval rate is 46.0% and his disapproval is at 49.6%.
The Big Airlines Got Greedy Now They Want A Bailout
Presidential approval ratings have risen even in murkier crises. Forty years ago, during the start of the Iran hostage crisis, the rally around the flag effect also kicked in strongly for President Jimmy Carter. In a Gallup poll taken on Nov. 2-5, 1979, just as the American hostages were seized by Shia Islamic extremists at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, the percentage of people who approved of Carters handling of the presidency was at an abysmal 32 percent. A month later, when Carter was seen as taking a strong and resolute stand against the new revolutionary Iranian government, his approval rating shot up to 61 percent.
Yet perhaps no example better reflects how fleeting the patriotic swirl of support in a crisis can be than the denouement of the Iran hostage crisis. Once a sense of futility about resolving the embarrassing episode sunk in by late winter and spring of 1980, after a botched rescue effort, Carters approval ratings went into freefall. In the end, the 444-day Iran hostage crisis contributed significantly to his landslide loss to Republican challenger Ronald Reagan.
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Us Economy Craters Under Lockdown
This comes even while the U.S. economy is cratering and companies are shedding millions of jobs each week. The unemployment rate hit 14.7% in April up from 4.4% the month before, which makes it the highest recorded rate of joblessness.
The Oxford Economics report that forecasts the landslide against Trump highlights the economic problems the U.S. is experiencing currently. In normal times the economy is everything for voters. When unfavorable changes in the economy occur, such as rising unemployment or inflation, then incumbents tend to get thrown out of office quickly.
Trumps Approval Rating Rises Boosting Chances Of Winning Second Term
New Gallup poll gives Trump a 49% rating, first net positive for the president since January 2017
Donald Trumps popularity rating is improving at a key moment in election year boosting his chances of winning a second term in the White House.
As Bernie Sanders stormed to victory in the Nevada caucuses, establishing a grip on the Democratic primary, a new Gallup poll gave Trump a 49% approval rating and a disapproval rating of 48%. It was the first net positive for the president in the poll since the beginning of his presidency in January 2017.
The FiveThirtyEight website average of popularity polls shows Trumps approval rising since September, when impeachment proceedings began.
Acquitted in his Senate impeachment trial, Trumps average approval rating now stands at 43.3%, to 52.2% disapproving.
Presidents with approval ratings between roughly 46% and 54% at this point usually face close re-election battles. Presidents with approval ratings at 45% or below usually lose. If past history holds, Trumps approval rating may continue to rise just enough to make him a favourite.
On Sunday, a CBS News poll said 65% of Americans think Trump will win re-election in a tight race against the eventual Democratic nominee.
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‘treating This Like A Game’: Psaki Blasts Gop As Debt Ceiling Deadline Nears
Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 34%, while his disapproval is at 61%. The same pollster put Trump at a 33% approve to 60% disapprove split last week.
What’s the point: Before we bid adieu: This story has been updated with more poll numbers released in Trump’s final days as president.
Dem Group American Bridge Launches $20 Million Battleground State Ad Buy
WASHINGTON American Bridge is rolling out a $20 million ad campaign over 10 weeks in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the hopes of softening up President Trump in the blue wall states he flipped to secure his 2016 victory.
The first spots feature voters who backed Trump in 2016 explaining why they are now backing former Vice President Joe Biden.
In one Wisconsin spot, a Vietnam veteran named John argues that the “Trump economy” isn’t working for the working class.
“This time, I’m voting for Joe Biden because I think that Joe Biden has the good of the country in his heart,” he says.
“To compare Donald Trump with Joe Biden I can bet my life on most of what Joe Biden has to say. I wouldn’t bet my life on the next three things that come out of Donald Trump’s mouth, because one of them will probably be a lie.”
In another spot airing in Pennsylvania, a Westmoreland County voter named Janie said that she’s “disappointed” in Trump, while “Joe Biden understands how the government works, and I trust him.”
The new buy runs through the end of August, and will include TV, radio and digital ads. The group is targeting a smattering of markets across the state, including many of the Trump-leaning areas that the president’s campaign recently targeted with its recent ad buy.
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