Trump Poll Tests His 2024 Comeback Map
The former president is targeting five swing states that are pivotal to his hopes of winning back the White House.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a September rally in Georgia, one of the five states that flipped to President Joe Biden in 2020. | Sean Rayford/Getty Images
11/23/2021 04:30 AM EST
As Donald Trump builds out a presidential-campaign-in-waiting, his team is focusing on an electoral strategy that relies on recapturing the five states that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.
The five states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin delivered a total of 73 electoral votes in 2020, enough to produce a decisive Electoral College victory for Biden. Since then, Trump has held four rallies, endorsed dozens of candidates and played a key role in shaping contests that could put his allies in top offices in those states in 2024.
Trumps shadow campaign also recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points. According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.
The poll numbers send a message to those who think Trumps grip on the Republican Party is loosening, said Tony Fabrizio, a top GOP pollster who conducted the surveys for Trumps super PAC, Make America Great Again, Again!
How Much Can The Balance Of These Two Scenarios Affect Measures Of Opinion On Issues
The adjustment from the tilted version to the balanced version , makes very little difference in the balance of opinion on issue questions. Across a set of 48 opinion questions and 198 answer categories, most answer categories changed less than 0.5%. The average change associated with the adjustment was less than 1 percentage point, and approximately twice that for the margin between alternative answers . The maximum change observed across the 48 questions was 3 points for a particular answer and 5 points for the margin between alternative answers.
One 3-point difference was on presidential job approval, a measure very strongly associated with the vote. In the balanced version, 39 percent approved of Trumps job performance, while 58 percent disapproved. In the tilted version, 36 percent approved of Trumps performance and 60 percent disapproved. Two other items also showed a 3-point difference on one of the response options. In the balanced version, 54% said that it was a bigger problem for the country that people did not see racism that was occurring, compared with 57% among the tilted version. Similarly, in the balanced version, 38% said that the U.S. had controlled the coronavirus outbreak as much as it could have, compared with 35% who said this in the tilted version. All other questions tested showed smaller differences.
The complete set of comparisons among the 48 survey questions are shown in the topline at the end of this report.
Its Not Clear Polls Have Been Fixed
We can say with some confidence that pollsters will not make literally the exact same methodological mistake they made in 2016. But some people familiar with the education weighting issue have jumped too hastily to assuming that the polls have been fixed since Trumps initial victory.
When Nate Cohn, of the New York Times, surveyed state-level poll accuracy in the wake of the 2018 midterms, he found that on average the polls had become more accurate.
But in states where the polls overestimated Clinton, they also tended to overestimate Democrats in 2018, and vice versa. National polling, in both years, was more accurate. The 2018 race was largely focused on the House of Representatives, so the state-level polling errors didnt seem like a huge deal psychologically. Democrats underperformed here and there and disappointed themselves, but also overperformed massively in California and made up for it by winning some surprise seats out west. In the Electoral College, of course, underperforming the polls in Pennsylvania and Florida and making it up in California would not be so benign.
Perhaps even more important, Bidens polling lead is just really large at this point. The polls could be off badly and he might win anyway.
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Most Say That The Us Is A Somewhat Reliable Partner
Across the 16 publics surveyed, majorities or pluralities say the U.S. is a somewhat reliable partner. But in no public surveyed do more than two-in-ten say that the U.S. is a very reliable partner.
At the same time, fewer than four-in ten say the U.S. is a not too reliable partner, and in no public do more than one-in-seven say that the U.S. is a not at all reliable partner.
The sentiment that the U.S. is a very or somewhat reliable partner is highest in the Netherlands , Australia and Japan . But 44% in Taiwan and 43% in Greece say the U.S. is not too or not at all reliable.
Question2 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way The Republicans In Congress Are Handling Their Job
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoApprove 23% 51% 6% 22% 24% 23% 18% 30%Disapprove 65 44 90 65 63 67 74 59DK/NA 12 5 4 14 13 11 8 11 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspApprove 20% 20% 27% 28% 27% 25% 26% 15% 24%Disapprove 58 69 66 66 62 65 64 76 62DK/NA 22 11 7 6 11 10 11 9 13
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Who Won The Presidential Debates
Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.
The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trumps combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.
Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel annoyed.
In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.
But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.
While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Bidens performance was more impressive.
A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.
A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.
So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, its unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.
Direction Of The Country
|Direction of the country rating, 2017-2021
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
Can We Trust The Polls
Its easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But its not entirely true.
Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesnt mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.
Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree meaning Mr Trumps advantage in some key battleground states wasnt spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.
But this year theres even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect its having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.
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Most Americans Dont Want Trump Or Biden To Run In 202: Poll
Most Americans dont want either President Biden or his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, to run for the White House again in 2024, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shared exclusively with The Hill.
Two-thirds of voters surveyed 67 percent said that Biden shouldnt seek another term in the Oval Office, with nearly half citing their belief that hes a bad president as the reason why. Another 30 percent said its simply because Biden, who would be 84 by the time he takes the Oath of Office again, is too old for the job.
Trump, meanwhile, doesnt fare much better when it comes to a 2024 run. Fifty-seven percent said that the former president shouldnt mount another bid for the White House, despite his repeated hints that he plans to do so.
When it comes to the reason why most voters arent keen on another Trump White House run, respondents were divided. Thirty-six percent said that its because he is erratic, while another 33 percent said they believe he will divide the country. Nearly as many 31 percent pointed to his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
If the two men end up in a 2024 rematch, however, 60 percent of voters said they would be open to supporting a moderate independent candidate in the election.
What Polls Say About Joe Lombardo Adam Laxalt Ahead Of Nevada Trump Rally
Recent polls show the candidates running for U.S. Senate and governor in Nevada are locked in tight races as former President Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive in the state on Saturday to stump for the GOP contenders.
While the races are close, polling averages from FiveThirtyEight show the Republican challengers have slight advantages over the Democratic incumbents.
According to FiveThirtyEight, in the Senate race, Republican candidate Adam Laxalt, a former attorney general for the state, is polling ahead of incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto by 1.5 percent. Laxalt has support from 45.6 percent of voters, while Cortez Masto has 44.1 percent. Meanwhile in the governor’s race, Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is behind his challenger Joe Lombardo, the Clark County sheriff. Lombardo, a Republican, has 44.3 percent support from voters while Sisolak has 43.7 percent.
With only 30 days left until the midterms, Trump will be holding a “Save America” rally in Minden, Nevada, on Saturday and will be joined by Lombardo and Laxalt, who he has endorsed in their respective races.
Another poll from the Nevada Independent released on October 2 found similar results: Laxalt led Cortez Masto 45 to 43 percent, while Lombardo led Sisolak 45 to 42 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 3.6 percent and surveyed 741 likely voters.
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Poll: Fewer Than Half Of Republican Primary Voters Would Support Trump In 2024
Just over half of Republicans likely to vote in their party’s 2024 presidential primary say that they would prefer someone other than former President Donald Trump as the party’s presidential candidate, a poll released on Tuesday by The New York Times and Siena College found.
After identifying Republicans likely to vote in the primary, the survey gave respondents a choice between Trump and five other potential GOP nominees. Only 49% of respondents chose Trump, despite the fact that the former president carried 94% of all Republican votes in the 2020 election, which he lost to current President Joe Biden.
Trump’s closest challenger was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was chosen by 25% of respondents. Other potential candidates included Texas Senator Ted Cruz Trump’s one-time running mate, former Vice President Mike Pence former South Carolina governor and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo .
Is Trump vulnerable?
The biggest question raised by the poll is whether it indicates that Trump might be vulnerable to a challenge in the Republican primary elections in 2024. Experts said that the results should be read with caution.
While Trump’s lack of a clear majority in the poll may raise some eyebrows, “He’s still pretty far ahead,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told VOA.
Comparison to Biden
How Does Trumps Approval Rating Look These Days
Between between the push for tax legislation, new developments in the Trump-Russia investigation, and some provocative moves on the world stage, it’s been a busy few weeks for President Trump. So how does his approval rating look these days? Not great, according to a spate of recent polls but not any worse than it has looked for much of the last few months.
Forty-three percent of registered voters said they approve of the president’s job performance in an Economist/YouGov survey released Wednesday. Fifty-two percent said they disapprove.
In an Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll also released Wednesday, 36 percent of Americans nationwide gave the president their approval, and 59 percent offered their disapproval.
In a Gallup poll released Wednesday, 36 percent of Americans said they approve of the job Mr. Trump is doing, while 59 percent disagreed.
And on Tuesday, Quinnipiac University released their latest survey, which showed the president’s approval rating at 35 percent among registered voters, and his disapproval rating at 58 percent.
None of those surveys reflect particularly well on Mr. Trump’s political fortunes at the moment but that has been the case for much of the past few months. The president’s approval rating, while fairly deep underwater, has also been remarkably stable, which could point to a strong sense of loyalty among his remaining supporters.
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Question8 Would You Like To See Donald Trump Run For President In 2024 Or Not
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoYes 35% 78% 4% 35% 40% 30% 24% 53%No 58 16 94 58 51 64 71 41DK/NA 7 6 2 7 8 5 6 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspYes 29% 37% 40% 37% 50% 37% 43% 9% 33%No 63 56 55 57 44 57 51 89 58DK/NA 8 8 5 6 6 6 6 2 8
About The Vanderbilt Poll
The survey of 1,000 adults who are registered voters living in Tennessee was conducted between April 26 and May 14, 2022, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The statewide poll is conducted annually by Vanderbilt Universitys Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions. In 2015, the Vanderbilt Poll became a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Researchs Transparency Initiative. More detailed results and methodology can be found at vu.edu/poll.
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How Much Polls Were Off
Lets start with the presidential election. Nationally, the polls said Biden would win the popular vote handily by somewhere around 7.2 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics polling average.
Thats nearly double the current margin, which stands at 3.8 percentage points, a little more than two weeks after Election Day.
Its a smaller margin than there appeared to be on election night, with votes still waiting to be counted.
Meanwhile, polling nearly perfectly captured presidential vote preferences in some battleground states, but it was off by a wide enough margin in others that it threw off election forecasters.
In a handful , polling was fairly accurate, off by around a point or even less.
In Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin, the polls were off sizably by more than 4 points. In all of these cases, the polls underestimated Trumps performance in relation to Biden. This echoes 2016 polls, which also underestimated Trumps standing in key states in relation to Hillary Clinton.
What may ultimately set this year apart from 2016 is that national polls four years ago were very close to the final result just 1.2 points away. This year, once all ballots are counted, it may be the case that polls were off significantly both nationally and across swing states.
Importantly, not only did polls underestimate Trumps performance in the presidential race, but they also appear to have underestimated Republicans in congressional races.