‘blue Wall’ Rebuilt With Suburban Votes
Trump suggested throughout his campaign that Biden would “destroy the beautiful suburbs,” but it turned out many suburbanites disagreed.
Biden won back a number of crucial Midwest states that Clinton lost to Trump in 2016 largely thanks to suburban voters. The cluster of historically Democrat-won states, dubbed the blue wall, include three of the five major battleground states this election cycle.
“We saw a consistent pattern across the country, in both close states and states that weren’t so close, that Biden made significant strides compared to Clinton’s performance four years ago in suburbs, predominantly affluent suburbs, of major metro areas,” Wasserman said.
In Wisconsin, the divide between the state’s rural and urban populations was defined, as 42 Wisconsin counties, many small and rural, cast more ballots for Trump than in 2016. Biden won Wisconsin by bolstering support in the populous suburbs of Milwaukee and Madison, despite average turnout in the cities themselves. Biden erased Trump’s entire 2016 margin in Wisconsin in just the counties surrounding Milwaukee, Wasserman said.
That same divide made Michigan competitive. Biden made gains in counties like Kent, where Grand Rapids is located, and the Detroit metropolitan area, though he underperformed Clinton in the city of Detroit. Trump improved his margins statewide, but not enough to surpass Bidens lead.
Talking Transitions: Perspectives For First
This three-hour event investigated a key moment in every presidency
The Miller Center joined the Partnership for Pubic Services Center for Presidential Transition to explore safe and effective presidential transition to first-term and second-term administrations. The event featured perspectives on transition planning, managing transitions during crises, and the complexities of shifting from campaigning to governing. Appearing were experts such as Joshua Bolten, Andy Card, Denis McDonough, Mack McLarty, Stephen Hadley, Lisa Monaco, John Podesta, Barbara Perry, Melody Barnes, Alexis Herman, Valerie Jarrett, Karen Hughes, and Margaret Spellings.
Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters
As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.
In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.
Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .
The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.
Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.
However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.
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Why I Believe Trump Will Win In 2020
I think Trump will win due to an unprecedented use of information warfare by our adversaries that will simultaneously activate and deactivate different voting groups within our country.
- Faction 1 : The extreme left who need to believe in a candidates morality before they can support them, and I think theyre easy to convince not to vote
- Faction 2 : Those who hate Trump and will vote for anyone to get him out. They can more easily be convinced not to vote
- Faction 3 : Are undecided, and will either be swayed by disgust for Trump or disgust for the Left. They are easy to convince not to vote
- Faction 4 : Adore Trump, and they will vote in extremely high percentages
This is not a formal analysis, and I am neither a pollster nor a political scientist. This is simply how I see the factions that will be in play leading up to the election.
I believe Novembers outcome will pivot on information campaigns that push and pull on these various groupsspecifically, the Woke Liberal faction and the Anyone But Trump Faction.
For the Woke Liberals, its fairly easy to get them not to vote. You simply have to convince them that Biden is an antiquated sexist who acted inappropriately to women in the pastpossibly up to the point of rape. Thats probably going to be easy to do, so the only remaining question will be how many of these voters move to the Never Trump camp.
So now lets look at various pieces on the board.
There are, of course, some trends that hurt Trump.
and why it matters
See How New Yorks New Congressional Map Sets Up A Member Vs Member House Primary
New York Judge Patrick McAllister approved the new congressional map drawn by a court-appointed special master. The map most likely gives Democrats an advantage in 19 districts. Under a blocked map the Democratic-controlled legislature drew earlier this year, Democrats had hoped to gain a path to about 22 seats.
New York will have a member-versus-member House primary as longtime Manhattan-based Reps. Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney were placed in the new 12th Congressional District.
Shifts in voting power: New York loses one of its 27 seats in the House after the 2020 census. Under the new map, there is an additional Hispanic-majority district in New York City, for a total of three. There are also two fewer White-majority districts.
CNNs Melissa DePalo, Eleanor Stubbs and Christopher Hickey contributed to this report.
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Gen Z Candidate Wins Democratic Nomination In Floridas 10th District
Maxwell Frost, a 25-year-old community organizer and one of the first members of Gen Z to run for Congress, will win the Democratic nomination in Floridas 10th District, CNN projects.
He bested a crowded field of candidates looking to replace Democratic Rep. Val Demings in the Orlando district including state Sen. Randolph Bracy, former US Rep. Corrine Brown who recently settled a federal corruption case after winning a new trial and serving more than two years in prison and former US Rep. Alan Grayson.
Demings vacated the deep-blue district seat to run for Senate. She clinched the Democratic nomination Tuesday and will face GOP Sen. Marco Rubio in November.
Ahead of the primary, Frost a gun violence prevention activist who this summer disrupted conservative talk show host Dave Rubins public interview of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis with calls to end gun violence generated considerable buzz.
He was endorsed by progressives Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, as well as the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, and he had raised $1.5 million through Aug. 3, more than any other candidate in the field, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
For the first time in 2022, members of Generation Z those born after 1996 could be elected to the US House of Representatives. Frost on the campaign trail has leaned into his youth and says that if elected to Congress, he would bring the fervor of Gen Z with him.
Trump Will Win The 2020 Election Investing Experts Say Hes Better For Stocks And The Economy
This excerpt about the 2020 U.S. election is from Barrons latest Big Money Poll, a survey of 107 of Americas money managers. To see the full results, .
Nearly 90% of Big Money investors approve of the Federal Reserves moves to combat the coronavirus crisiss impact on financial markets, and a near-equal percentage give thumbs up to public health officials response to the outbreak. President Donald Trump, in contrast, gets a vote of confidence for his handling of the health crisis from just 48% of poll respondents, while only 45% express confidence in the response of Congress.
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Ivanka Trump Fusses Over Dress In Jan 6 Documentary Teaser
On another issue important to voters, Morris said Trump and the Republicans have a strong hand to play as the law-and-order party and paint Biden and the Democrats as soft on crime during the fall midterms and in 2024.
He said the left wing of the Democratic Partys campaign to defund the police is a gift to Trump and the GOP.
The crime issue is particularly toxic for the Democrats, because it is obvious to voters that it was not nearly as bad a problem before Biden was elected. Back in 2019, and before, crime had fallen out of the headlines and faded in popular consciousness. But after Bidens election, the movement to defund the police, and the vilification of dedicated, responsible, fair, and hardworking police officers has set the crime rate soaring. So who is to blame? Figure it out!, Morris said.
The Left wants to cut the number of uniformed police and replace them with social workers and psychologists to stem violence and escalation. So the next time you worry that a criminal is trying to break into your home, call 911 and wait for a social worker to arrive, he said.
The Lefts goal is not to reduce crime by cutting the number of murders, rapes, and robberies. It is to reduce punishment, incarceration, and harsh sentencing by decriminalizing crime.
He said decriminalization of marijuana makes sense, but Democrats have gone overboard with policies such as eliminating cash bail.
Pivot Counties In The 2020 Presidential Election
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump in 2016. Media and political observers sometimes refer to these counties as swing counties.
- 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states: Trump won these counties with a median margin of victory of 13.2 percentage points.
- 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states: Biden won these counties with a median margin of victory of 3.4 percentage points.
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Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election
The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .
Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .
Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.
Party and ideology
Age and generation
White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .
The Silent Majority Is Real
In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton led then-candidate Donald Trump by seven points in Wisconsin, only weeks out from Election Day. She ended up losing the state by 0.7 percentage points a nearly 8-point swing.
In Michigan, Clinton led by even more , only to lose the state by 0.3 percentage points a greater than 10-point swing. In Pennsylvania, Clinton also led by double digits, only to get beaten again.
Notice a trend?
While national and statewide polls take into account certain voter preferences, many Americans are not registered by left-leaning pollsters, and they stay silent until Election Day to pull the trigger under the radar. While Biden may be leading in every battleground state except Florida, his leads are less sizable than Clintons in 2016, making it even easier for President Trump to flip the script.
The silent majority is real you just havent heard from them yet.
The U.S. economy is roaring back
Democrats may be doing their best to keep Americas economy locked down, but employers and employees are bringing us out of the COVID-19 recession. Buoyed by President Trumps optimistic vision for the future, third-quarter economic growth surpassed 30% on an annualized and seasonally adjusted basis. Many COVID-related job losses have been reversed, with jobless claims hitting their lowest levels since March.
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Most Conservative News Outlets Are On The Big Tech Teat
Not long ago, conservative media was not beholden to anyone. Today, most sites are stuck on the Big Tech gravy train.
Ill keep this short. The rise of Pandemic Panic Theater, massive voter fraud, and other taboo topics have neutered a majority of conservative news sites. Youll notice they are very careful about what topics they tackle. Sure, theyll attack Critical Race Theory, Antifa, and the Biden-Harris regime, but you wont see them going after George Soros, Bill Gates, the World Economic Forum, or the Deep State, among others.
The reason is simple. They are beholden to Big Tech, and Big Tech doesnt allow certain topics to be discussed or theyll cut you off. Far too many conservative news outlets rely on Google, Facebook, and Twitter for the bulk of their traffic. They depend on big checks from Google ads to keep the sites running. I dont necessarily hold it against them. We all do what we need to do to survive. I just wish more would do like we have, which is to cut out Big Tech altogether.
We dont get Google checks. We dont have Facebook or Twitter buttons on our stories. We dont have a YouTube Channel , an Instagram profile , or a TikTok . Were not perfect, but were doing everything we can to not owe anything to anyone other than our readers. We owe YOU the truth. We owe YOU the facts that others wont reveal about topics that others wont tackle. And we owe America, this great land that allows us to take hold of these opportunities.
Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but theyre not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost thats because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesnt always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
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Would Trumps Support Change If He Were Charged With A Crime
The former president faces a handful of investigations, including from the Department of Justice and the U.S. House select committee on the origins of the Jan. 6 attack, a grand jury looking into potential election interference in Georgia and, most recently, an FBI probe into classified materials removed from the White House and kept at Trumps Florida estate. Some had been recovered or returned earlier this year. But when the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last month, agents still found more than 100 classified documents and 43 empty folders with classified markings, among thousands of other official records, according to a Department of Justice list of items.
Support for Trumps candidacy in 2024 would not change much if any of these investigations result in Trump being charged with a crime, according to this poll. Sixty-five percent of Americans would oppose another run for the White House. More than six in 10 Republicans would still want to see him launch a campaign. Meanwhile, 73 percent of independents say he should not run again if he is charged.
This poll is just a snapshot of the current political environment. With two months until the midterm elections and another two years until the 2024 presidential election, a lot can still change with the Republican primary field and the investigations.
Graphic by Megan McGrew
Half Of Republican Nominees Have At Least Flirted With Denying The Election
As mentioned above, out of 340 Republican nominees for Senate, House, governor, attorney general and secretary of state so far, 120 are full-blown election deniers .2 This includes people like Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, who said in a campaign ad that the fake news, big tech and blue-state liberals stole the election from President Trump, and Indiana Rep. Greg Pence, who voted not to certify Pennsylvanias electoral votes and hasnt spoken out on the issue since. It also includes at least four people who attended the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol: Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, Ohio 9th Congressional District nominee J.R. Majewski, Oregon senatorial nominee Jo Rae Perkins and North Carolina 1st Congressional District nominee Sandy Smith.
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