Here’s What Makes Her Unique
There are five reasons why Warren is best equipped to deal with these challenges:
Polls show Warrens message that the economic system is rigged against ordinary people and her willingness to unapologetically call for fundamental structural changes in the rules of the economic game are very attractive to white working-class vote-switchers in the upper Midwest who havent had a raise that outstrips inflation in 30 years.
These voters dont want continuity or stability, they want change. Thats why many switched their vote in 2016. They believed Clinton represented the economic status quo.
Elizabeth Warren’s choice:‘Medicare for All’ purity or a path to beating Trump?
Warrens call to voters in the most recent debate couldnt be clearer: The paths to Americas middle class have gotten a lot smaller and a lot narrower. … I know whats broken. I know how to fix it and Im going to lead the fight to get it done.
Warren correctly understands that a populist economic message is necessary to move swing voters not just the base.
That message wont alienate 2016 vote-switchers who moved from Romney to Clinton. They were motivated mainly by their disgust for Trumps cultural agenda. That disgust isnt going away regardless of the Democratic candidate.
Warren not only inspires white working-class voters, she inspires people of all sorts, particularly young people.
In 2020, being a woman is a political asset. It promises to be the year that women strike back.
Pete Buttigieg Mayor Of South Bend Ind
After rising to the top of the polls in Iowa, Mr. Buttigieg finally found himself under assault at a debate.
He sought to defuse the attacks against him by arguing that his critics were being naïve about what it will take to defeat Mr. Trump and that he was a more formidable candidate than his age 37 may suggest.
This is our only chance to defeat Donald Trump, and we shouldnt do it with one hand tied behind our back, Mr. Buttigieg said in response to Ms. Warrens criticism about his fund-raising practices.
And when Ms. Klobuchar targeted him for losing a statewide election and his bid for Democratic National Committee chairman, he fired back by highlighting his own capacity to win in the Midwest.
If you want to talk about the capacity to win, try putting together a coalition to bring you back to office with 80 percent of the vote as a gay dude in Mike Pences Indiana, Mr. Buttigieg said.
He proved his dexterity by parrying the attacks against him, but the question is now if he can sustain his advantage after having doubts raised about his candidacy in such stark fashion.
Trump Ally To Make Bid For Georgia Governor
Des Moines, Iowa Sen. Elizabeth Warren made a forceful case in Tuesday night’s debate that a woman can win the White House, tackling the unpopular question that has loomed over the presidential race since Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton since 2016 — buttressing her argument by pointing to the electoral losses of the men standing alongside her on stage.
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Who Has The Best Chance To Beat Trump In 2020
Of the 23 Democrats seeking the partys nomination, only one will face incumbent Republican President Donald Trump on Tuesday, November 3 during the 2020 US presidential election.
So, this begs the question: Who has the best chance of beating Trump in 2020?
To answer this, well examine how the betting odds for each of the Democratic candidates have changed since 2019 began and whether their chances have gone up or down over that time.
We have tracked the 2020 odds for all presidential candidates since the start of the year , and the current odds taken on May 24 can be found at Bovada Sportsbook.
Whos Best To Beat Trump 7 Answers When 7 Democrats Debate
Making a case for the nomination, onstage together for one last time in 2019.
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WASHINGTON Senator Elizabeth Warren argued that Democrats would defeat President Trump if they draw the sharpest distinction with what she called the administrations corruption and suggested that Mayor Pete Buttigiegs high-dollar fund-raising would undermine their ability to do that. Mr. Buttigieg said his party could scarcely afford to hew to such purity tests in a race against Mr. Trump.
And Senator Amy Klobuchar was even less subtle, repeatedly citing her heartland roots to argue that Democrats could win only if they put a Midwesterner like her at the top of the ticket, while recalling that Mr. Buttigieg had been soundly defeated in his one statewide race in Indiana.
In Washington, those who make politics a vocation or an avocation are consumed with this weeks impeachment of Mr. Trump, the branding of a scarlet I upon his tenure. But on the other side of the country, on the Democratic debate stage in Los Angeles, the candidates circled around a different vowel, and a different word the E word.
As in: electability.
Or, rather, which of the candidates running can eject Mr. Trump from the White House next year, now that its clear Republican senators wont offer the votes to convict him.
transcript
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Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election
The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .
Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .
Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.
Party and ideology
Age and generation
Geography
Religion
White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .
Betting Odds For President Donald Trump
Before we weigh each of the Democrats chances of beating Trump, we need to look at the odds for Trump himself and determine if his chances are rising or falling.
Donald Trump
- Then: +150
- % Change: +7.62%
- Trump has been favored to win re-election since the start of the year and his chances of winning have continued to rise in 2019. This is likely due to two factors: 1) Were slowly getting closer to the election and incumbents always have an edge and 2) The public money does not believe he will be impeached, which gives him a clear path to be on the ballot as the Republican nominee when the 2020 election rolls around whereas the Democratic nomination is much more uncertain.
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Poll: Half Of Republicans Right
Fifty percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents think the party has a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if former President Donald Trump is the partys nominee, according to a poll released earlier this week.
The NPR/PBS NewsHour/ Marist National Poll, which was conducted before the Virginia election on Tuesday, found that 35% of respondents want someone other than Trump, while 14% said they didnt know.
Meanwhile, more than 40% of Democrats think the party might just have a better chance to win the White House in 2024 if President Joe Biden isnt on the ballot, said the poll.
Forty-four percent of Democrats and independents said they lean Democratic prefer another candidate to run, while 36% said they want Biden to run again. Twenty percent werent sure.
The poll also found that just 44% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing, while 49% disapprove.
Biden said in Rome on Sunday that hes not concerned about his flagging numbers. the way, look, the polls are going to go up and down, and up and down. They were higher early. Then they got medium. Then back up and now theyre low, he told reporters.
at every other president. The same thing has happened, but thats not why I ran. I didnt run to determine how well Im going to do in the polls, he said.
The survey also found that Americans are losing faith in the electoral process.
Other findings include:
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Bloomberg Viewed As Having Best Chance To Beat Trump In Betting Market Analysis
Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergDonald TrumpRepublicans fret over Trump’s influence in Missouri Senate raceSenate confirms first Korean-American woman as federal appeals judgeMORE if nominated, according to a newly released betting market analysis.
However, the analysis from researchers at Standard Chartered Bank, first reported by CNBC, also found that Bloomberg is viewed as having a 10 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
“Our interpretation of online market pricing is that Bloomberg is viewed as having the highest chance among Democrats of beating Trump if nominated. But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10 percent,” the study states.
The research shows that among the top-polling candidates, Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenPoll: 71 percent support Biden’s omicron travel ban Invest in kids and families now so that someday I’ll be out of a jobMORE are the two candidates viewed as having the highest chances of winning given perceptions about how friendly they would be for asset markets.
“Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress,” the researchers wrote.
The former mayor has spent more than $200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $1 billion to defeat Trump, even if he is not the nominee.
Sanders Viewed As Best Candidate To Beat Trump By Democrats And Independents Who Watched Latest Debates: Poll
A plurality of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who watched either of the two most recent presidential debates believe Sen. Bernie Sanders has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump in November, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll out Friday.
“The empirical evidence shows that there is no need for alarm about Mr. Sanders being the Democratic nominee, and even some cause for confidence.” Steve Phillips, Center for American Progress
The survey found that 34% of Democrats who watched any part of the Nevada debate last week or the South Carolina debate on Tuesday view Sanders as the most electable Democratic contender, while 25% chose former Vice President Joe Biden.
Just 15% said billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg has the best chance of beating Trump.
“Of the top two candidates, those under age 50 were much more likely to say Sanders is the strongest candidate to face Trump, and Biden was considered best positioned by those over 50,” ABC Newsreported.
The poll was based on a survey of 639 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents between Feb. 26-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
After seeing either of the ninth and tenth debates, 34% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Bernie Sanders has the best chance of defeating the incumbent president, per new News/Ipsos poll.
ABC News Politics
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Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
Road To 2: Biden Has Options Trump Walks Narrow Path
TAMPA, Fla. President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden each has a path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House. Bidens is appreciably wider.
The former vice president is competitive in all the battleground states Trump carried in 2016 and has put a handful of traditional Republican states, including Georgia and Arizona, in play. That has Trump scrambling to defend a wide swath of territory and putting the incumbents hopes for reelection on two of the most populous swing states, Florida and Pennsylvania.
A look at the most likely roads to victory:
BIDEN
TRUE NORTH
Biden can win an electoral majority most simply by carrying the three states where Trump stunned Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Those states were carried by Democrats for decades before 2016. They would give Biden 279 electoral votes, as long as he wins all the other states in Clintons column. Under this scenario, Biden would not need to win any other states Trump won in 2016.
The three northern industrial states have been Bidens sharpest target for advertising dollars. He spent almost $150 million 30% of his total national ad spending since June in the three, according to Kantar/CMAGs review for The Associated Press.
SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST
THE REST IS EXTRA
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