Aocs Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as one of the brightest young stars of the Democratic Party but has seen her odds fall from +3,300 in the New Year to +5,000 in March, and she has now plummeted all the way to +6,500 . AOC currently serves as a U.S. House of Representatives member, representing New Yorks 14th district.
The politically savvy 32-year-old has built a massive online following and will be turning the requisite age of presidential eligibility just before the 2024 election.
Her biggest obstacle may in fact be her own party, with her more progressive views likely to alienate some of her colleagues unless they soften over time.
She recently hit the news for criticizing the Biden administration for not doing more to help student debt. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosis new book This Will Not Pass accuses Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives of vying to be queen bee. AOC could run the risk of being another Bernie Sanders if she cant convince the moderates that shes willing to make concessions on key issues.
Why I Believe Trump Will Win In 2020
I think Trump will win due to an unprecedented use of information warfare by our adversaries that will simultaneously activate and deactivate different voting groups within our country.
- Faction 1 : The extreme left who need to believe in a candidates morality before they can support them, and I think theyre easy to convince not to vote
- Faction 2 : Those who hate Trump and will vote for anyone to get him out. They can more easily be convinced not to vote
- Faction 3 : Are undecided, and will either be swayed by disgust for Trump or disgust for the Left. They are easy to convince not to vote
- Faction 4 : Adore Trump, and they will vote in extremely high percentages
This is not a formal analysis, and I am neither a pollster nor a political scientist. This is simply how I see the factions that will be in play leading up to the election.
I believe Novembers outcome will pivot on information campaigns that push and pull on these various groupsspecifically, the Woke Liberal faction and the Anyone But Trump Faction.
For the Woke Liberals, its fairly easy to get them not to vote. You simply have to convince them that Biden is an antiquated sexist who acted inappropriately to women in the pastpossibly up to the point of rape. Thats probably going to be easy to do, so the only remaining question will be how many of these voters move to the Never Trump camp.
So now lets look at various pieces on the board.
There are, of course, some trends that hurt Trump.
and why it matters
Takeaways: Big Trump Win Election Deniers Advance In Nevada
WASHINGTON Donald Trump notched a significant victory in South Carolina, where his preferred candidate easily ousted five-term Rep. Tom Rice, the first Republican to be booted from office after voting to impeach the former president last year. But another high-profile GOP target of Trump in the state, Rep. Nancy Mace, held back a challenger.
Meanwhile, in Nevada on Tuesday, two election deniers who have tirelessly promoted the former presidents lies about voter fraud won their primaries for key positions of power in the state.
Takeaways from the latest round of primary elections:
SPLIT DECISION IN SOUTH CAROLINA
Their transgressions? Mace stated on national TV that Trumps entire legacy was wiped out by the attack, while Rice became an apostate for joining a small group of Republicans who voted with Democrats in favor of Trumps second impeachment.
He threw a temper tantrum that culminated with the sacking of the United States Capitol, Rice told NBC News on Monday. Its a direct attack on the Constitution, and he should be held accountable.
ELECTION DENIERS ADVANCE IN NEVADA
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Donald Trump Wins In 2024
Trump is the bookies favorite, the bettors favorite and leads Biden in the polls right now. He has the support of his growing base, plenty of financial muscle to mount a successful presidential campaign, and is feeding off the polarization in American society. If anyone thought populist politics was dead, theyre wrong. Granted, Trumps odds probably will inflate once the Democrats have figured out who theyre backing, but right now he projects as the favorite whoever he takes on.
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Donald Trump 2024 Odds Faqs
The 2024 Presidential Election is on November 5, 2024. Although early voting will begin in many states across the US weeks beforehand, none will be counted until November 5.
No. However, his presidential campaign announcement is expected. Federal investigations may incentivise him to run for president to avoid prosecution resulting from those investigations. After a presidential term, it also seems hard to believe that Trump would pass at the chance to become president again. As the January 6 hearings have demonstrated, Trump does not react well to coming in second place.
Yes. Trump ran as a Republican in 2016 and 2020. Since thats where his voter base is, thats how hell run if he wins the Republican primary. If he loses the primary, he could run as an Independent, but hes currently a Republican.
The Trump Presidential odds for 2024 come from sportsbooks and prediction markets. As bettors make wagers and sportsbooks adjust odds, the odds change and paint a picture of what bettors think will happen. However, sportsbook odds are skewed by bettor choices and sportsbook hedges. Prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbook odds, but nothing beats exit polls.
Aside from a few speeches and rallies, Trump has stayed at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. He has also been investigated for his role in inciting the Capitol Riot, tax fraud in his businesses before running for president, and for taking classified documents home to Mar-a-Lago.
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Explain Why He Thinks He Can Win
Can Trump possibly convince voters that he can beat the current president, given that he lost to him before in a record-high turnout election? Even Conant said it was “unlikely” Trump could win again.
“He has to find people who don’t yet like him to vote for him, but everyone has made up their mind on Donald Trump,” said Conant, who’s now founding partner at the public affairs firm Firehouse Strategies.
Some GOP insiders said Trump would be able to attack Biden’s record if the current president’s poll numbers continued to crater. But Mike DuHaime, CEO of MAD Global Strategy Group who advised former Gov. Chris Christie’s 2016 presidential campaign, said even that would prove a challenge.
“Biden is seen as personally likable,” DuHaime said. “That goes a long way when it comes to voting.”
Plus, when a candidate challenges an incumbent, he or she needs to be able to make the election a referendum on the current president, he said.
“Biden is very beatable, but Trump would have a harder time than anyone else because then the race becomes about Trump,” DuHaime said. “You want the race to be about the incumbent, especially if they are unpopular.”
This all presumes that Biden will seek a second term. The president, who is 79 years old and would be 82 on Inauguration Day 2025, has indicated he will run again and that Harris will again be his running mate. But more than a year may pass before Biden formally decides and files for re-election.
Explainer: What Election Deniers Could Do In 2024 If They Win Us November Midterms
Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano attends a rally held by former U.S. President Donald Trump in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 3, 2022. ?REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
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All back former President Donald Trump’s false claims that there was widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election won by Democrat Joe Biden.
Voting rights groups and many Democrats worry that if the candidates win their races in these midterm elections, they will be in key positions to influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
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THE BIG THREE: ARIZONA, MICHIGAN AND PENNSYLVANIA
In most states the secretary of state oversees elections and certifies the presidential election result, while the governor certifies the winning candidate’s slate of presidential electors, who in the American election system are the mechanism for determining which candidate won a state.
Individual states send these elector votes, which represent the popular vote, to the U.S. Congress for certification, a vital step before a new president can be sworn in. It was that certification ceremony that Trump supporters disrupted during the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.
Biden narrowly won these three battlegrounds in 2020.
In a May email to supporters, Finchem said that if he had been Arizona’s secretary of state in 2020, we would have won. Plain and simple.
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What Are The Odds Of Trumps Winning In 2020
Kevin Lewis asks:
What are the odds of Trumps winning in 2020, given that the last three presidents were comfortably re-elected despite one being a serial adulterer, one losing the popular vote, and one bringing race to the forefront?
Serial adulterer, poor vote in previous election, ethnicity . . . I dont think these are so important. It does seem that parties do better when running for a second term than when running for third term , but given our sparse data its hard to distinguish these three stories:1. Incumbency advantage: some percentage of voters support the president.2. Latent variable: given that a candidate wins once, thats evidence that hes a strong candidate, hence its likely hell win again.3. Pendulum or exhaustion: after awhile, voters want a change.
My guess is that the chances in 2020 of the Republican candidate will depend a lot on how the economy is growing at the time. This is all with the approximately 50/50 national division associated with political polarization. If the Republican party abandons Trump, that could hurt him a lot. But the party stuck with Trump in 2016 so they very well might in 2020 as well.
I guess I should blog this. Not because Im telling you anything interesting but because it can provide readers a clue as to how little I really know.
Also, by the time the post appears in March, who knows what will be happening.
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It’s Going To Be 2016 All Over Again
Nearly a thousand days remain between us and Nov. 3, 2020, but President Trump is already making announcements about his next campaign.
I feel comfortable saying that he has this thing in the bag. Trump is an uncouth, mean-spirited, delusional narcissist hated by the media. So was Richard Nixon in 1972, and he won re-election that year in the biggest landslide in American history. Like Nixon’s, Trump’s appeal among his base is foolproof. Even the slightest accomplishment can be presented as evidence of his deal-making savvy. Every promise he has failed to keep on health care, trade, immigration, The Wall can be answered away by invoking the specter of his enemies. Unlike Nixon or any president in recent memory, he has the benefit of being able to count the leadership of both parties among the latter. The GOP is fine with this arrangement. Mitch McConnell really will allow Trump to badmouth him in front of the American people if it means not having a Democrat in the White House.
In a contest of images, don’t bet against the reality TV star. For Trump to lose, the Democratic Party would have become the party of Rep. Rosa DeLauro. I don’t think even Rosa expects that to happen.
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Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but theyre not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost thats because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesnt always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
Trump Will Win The 2020 Election Investing Experts Say Hes Better For Stocks And The Economy
This excerpt about the 2020 U.S. election is from Barrons latest Big Money Poll, a survey of 107 of Americas money managers. To see the full results, .
Nearly 90% of Big Money investors approve of the Federal Reserves moves to combat the coronavirus crisiss impact on financial markets, and a near-equal percentage give thumbs up to public health officials response to the outbreak. President Donald Trump, in contrast, gets a vote of confidence for his handling of the health crisis from just 48% of poll respondents, while only 45% express confidence in the response of Congress.
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Will Trump Run After Search By Fbi
On August 8, 2022, the FBI conducted a controversial raid on Trumps Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. This, naturally, has been criticized by the GOP as being politically motivated and baseless, while the Democrats have seized on the events in an effort to prevent a possible Trump 2024 campaign. Whether the FBI found any evidence of any crimes and whats going to happen if they did remains to be seen.
However, as the aftermath of the Trump FBI raid plays out, you can expect election betting sites to have odds on various outcomes thereof. In the immediate aftermath, these events have boosted FL. Gov. Ron DeSantis GOP nomination chances for 2024, but only by a few points. Trump is still the favorite to get the nomination at most sites, though DeSantis is favored overall to win the presidency at this time. But theres still a long time to go.
Registered Voters Divided On Which Candidate Will Win
Overall, registered voters are divided over who they think will win the 2020 November election: While 50% of voters believe that Trump will win the presidential election, 48% predict a victory for Biden.
And although voters predictions for who will win the presidential election largely align with their candidate preference, voters who support Trump or lean toward voting for him are slightly more likely than Biden supporters to say that their candidate will win .
Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, majorities of voters consistently expected a Hillary Clinton victory. In August of 2016, 55% said Clinton would win, compared with 42% who expected Trump to win.
Trump supporters are far more confident their candidate will win today than they were four years ago. Currently, 90% of Trump supporters expect him to win at about the same point in the campaign four years ago, only 74% of Trump supporters said he would prevail over Clinton.
Today, voters who are more certain of their choice in candidate are more likely to expect that their candidate will win the 2020 election. Nearly all strong Trump supporters expect him to win, compared with 77% of his more moderate supporters. Similarly, among Biden supporters, those who support Biden strongly are more likely than those who support him moderately to expect him to win the November election.
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Trump Knows What So Many Of Us Will Not Admit Nor Speak Publicly: That We Elected Him Once And We’ll Elect Him Again That Almost Mysteriously But Certainly Tragically He Is The Perfect Candidate
2:00 AM on Jun 30, 2019 CDT
President Donald Trump will win re-election, and it may not even be close.
Is this conjecture or prophecy? Only time will tell. But it doesn’t matter I expect the result will be the same: four more years making America great again, tweet by tweet. Not a question of economics or policy or even vision, it’s simply a question of psychology and politics. Americans remain seduced by the incantations and mythologies of partisan politics, so it should be plain for anyone to see. Our next general election will be a maddeningly simple game, uncomplex and brutal.
Take the politics of it. The philosopher Max Weber said long ago that the West has always been vulnerable to demagoguery, a claim both history and contemporary politics confirm. From Pericles to Putin, from Churchill to Thatcher to Reagan to Clinton to Trump: Charisma and celebrity have often mattered more than ideas.
Even noble, liberty-loving republicanism, intrinsically fearful of an unrestrained demos, has always been liable to exploitation by charismatic leaders. This is Machiavelli’s prince, idealized Medici: cruel, amoral charlatans desirous only for power. It’s why in politics oratory always mattered, and why in today’s media images, clickbait and deepfakes matter so much more.
And that’s because Trump is us. Which, of course, is an issue not political.
Joshua J. Whitfield|Contributor
The Silent Majority Is Real
In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton led then-candidate Donald Trump by seven points in Wisconsin, only weeks out from Election Day. She ended up losing the state by 0.7 percentage points a nearly 8-point swing.
In Michigan, Clinton led by even more , only to lose the state by 0.3 percentage points a greater than 10-point swing. In Pennsylvania, Clinton also led by double digits, only to get beaten again.
Notice a trend?
While national and statewide polls take into account certain voter preferences, many Americans are not registered by left-leaning pollsters, and they stay silent until Election Day to pull the trigger under the radar. While Biden may be leading in every battleground state except Florida, his leads are less sizable than Clintons in 2016, making it even easier for President Trump to flip the script.
The silent majority is real you just havent heard from them yet.
The U.S. economy is roaring back
Democrats may be doing their best to keep Americas economy locked down, but employers and employees are bringing us out of the COVID-19 recession. Buoyed by President Trumps optimistic vision for the future, third-quarter economic growth surpassed 30% on an annualized and seasonally adjusted basis. Many COVID-related job losses have been reversed, with jobless claims hitting their lowest levels since March.