Terry Mcauliffe To Democrats: Get It Done Do Your Job
Donald Trump is, ostensibly, a Republican. But he has shown time and again both in the White House and now out of it that he cares little about helping the party and its other candidates.
If we dont solve the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020 , Republicans will not be voting in 22 or 24. It is the single most important thing for Republicans to do.
The Science Of Ranking Us Presidents
Is Barack Obama really the worst president since World War II? The Quinnipiac Poll announced just that result recently. There were thereafter a number of pushbacks from that conclusion, most based on the fact that such an open-end question reflects a “recency bias” in that Americans think about the presidents who are most top-of-mind.
Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspxGallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A +1 202.715.3030
Trumps Approval Rating Among Republicans Is Not As High As He Claims
First off, Trumps approval rating among Republicans isnt the 94 percent he claims its actually about 10 points lower. The Washington Post provided an overview of the relevant polling last month, after Trump posted a tweet on August 23 touting the fake Republican approval number he loves to cite:
A Monmouth University poll released Thursday found 84 percent of Republicans approve of Trumps job performance, while an AP-NORC poll found that 79 percent do. His highest recent approval mark among fellow Republicans was 88 percent in a Fox News poll of registered voters earlier this month.
Trumps claim of 94 percent approval among Republicans is also higher than in a Zogby Analytics poll released earlier this month that Trump has touted. That firm, whose surveys do not rely on a random sample of U.S. voters and whose pre-election polls have often been inaccurate, put Trumps approval rating among Republicans at 86 percent.
In short, its unclear where Trump is getting his 94% number from. But whatever its origins, it is not coming from a reputable source.
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Bidens Approval Ratings Slip To Trump
President Biden, nine months into his presidency, is getting a clear verdict in public polls: America sees him similarly to the guy he beat Donald Trump.
Why it matters: Independents are turning on Biden. Shocking numbers of people see the nation headed in the wrong direction. And people see incompetence and chaos.
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An NBC News poll out this morning finds 54% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s performance on the brink of midterms, and as he’s trying to close the deal on a historic expansion of government.
“Bidens favorable/unfavorable rating in the poll is almost identical to Trumps in the same survey ,” NBC reports.
71% in the NBC poll including 70% of independents and even 48% of Democrats believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
An especially worrisome stat for the White House: Just 18% strongly approve of Biden, while nearly half strongly disapproval.
The big picture: Gallup says Biden’s 42% approval rating is the lowest for any president in October of their first year going back to Dwight Eisenhower in 1953 except Trump, who was at 37%.
Zoom in: FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker has Biden at 51% disapprove.
Real Clear Politics has him at 52% disapproval.
Between the lines: Biden faces signs the U.S. is turning against big government just as he’s trying to make government much bigger:
Absence Makes The Heart Grow Fonder
Americans tend to view presidents more favorably in retrospect than they do while in office, Gallup polling has shown.
In addition to leaving office, another factor has kept Trump from a continuous spotlight: Social media giants Twitter, Facebook and YouTube have all banned the former president from posting on their platforms, a decision they enacted shortly after his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in January. The companies have argued the move is necessary to prevent the spread of dangerous misinformation, though its raised questions about free speech and censorship on social media.
Trump has remained an active guest on conservative platforms, and he briefly posted thoughts to a personal blog. But stripped of his Twitter account and the White House megaphone, hes largely receded from mainstream attention.
Selzer said none of that appears to be hurting Trumps favorability numbers in Iowa.
It doesnt seem to be a case of out of sight out of mind, she said. Maybe its a little bit more of absence makes the heart grow fonder.
In a December 2018 Iowa Poll of registered Republicans, only 19% of respondents said they thought posting potentially inflammatory messages on Twitter on a regular basis was a good move for Trump. Far more 72% said doing so was a mistake.
Karen Moon, a 32-year-old Indianola resident and poll respondent, said she was never a fan of Trumps public persona.
She would definitely vote for him if he ran again for president, Moon said.
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A Third Of The Gop Is Skeptical Of Trump But Half Of That Group Prefers Trump
President Bidens approval ratings have been unusually stable for a very simple reason: Democrats like him a lot, and Republicans dont. Thats a majority of Americans with strong, mostly unmoving opinions, meaning that variations that occur wont move the top-line number very much. Its an artifact of the sharp polarization the country has been experiencing for years and is not something unique to Biden. President Donald Trump saw a similar effect for nearly all of his time in office as did President Barack Obama after an initial honeymoon period.
One effect of that stability is that we dont spend very much time talking about Bidens approval numbers. News organizations tend to focus on whats new or otherwise notable, and months of slightly-above-50-percent polling aint that.
What is unusual, though, are the number of Republicans who, despite their skepticism of Biden, approve of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. About a third of Republicans think Biden is handling the pandemic well, according to new polling from Quinnipiac University. Thats about four times as many Republicans as approve of Bidens performance overall or view him favorably. Its an unusual bit of semi-bipartisanship getting a third of Republicans to say anything positive about Biden seems remarkable.
Among Republicans, it continues to not be enough for Biden simply to not be Trump.
Trump Is A Barometer For Republican Views Of Supreme Court
A person holds a sign during a rally to protest the results of the election, in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, in Washington, U.S., December 12, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
The U.S. Supreme Court has been issuing rulings that tend to favor conservatives, but its approval ratings have dropped among Republicans as well as Democrats, according to an analysis by my Reuters colleagues and a recent Gallup poll, both released on July 28.
A year ago, 58% of Americans approved of the court, its highest rating in about 11 years, according to the poll. This year, the courts approval rating dipped to 49%, and a historical gap between Republicans and Democrats narrowed to nothing: Members of both parties have identical approval ratings of 51% .
The courts reputation has taken a hit among Republicans, despite it taking a sharp turn toward the right, both in terms of its membership and decisions.
Former President Donald Trump appointed three new justices since 2017, moving the court further to the right than it had been for decades. Republican approval of the court expectedly surged in Gallups polls after those appointments.
And, a recent Reuters analysis of the courts shadow docket rulings from the past 12 months found that the courts 6-3 conservative majority repeatedly favored religious groups and Trumps administration, while denying almost 100 other emergency applications by private individuals and groups.
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Even If It Were True 94 Percent Republican Approval Would Not Be A Record
Its not the case that Trumps approval rating among Republicans is 94 percent, but even if it were, it wouldnt be the record he claims.
As Politifact detailed in June, when Trump claimed during a news conference with then-British Prime Minister Theresa May that I have a 90 to 94 percent approval rating, as of this morning, in the Republican Party an all-time record, he was discounting George W. Bushs GOP approval rating in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, which hit 99 percent. In fact, Trumps Republican approval rating during his first 30 months in office lagged behind not just George W. Bush, but George H.W. Bush as well.
So Trumps claim is a lie about a lie. But that sort of thing is par for the course for him.
Half Of Republican Respondents Said Former President Should Play Major Role In Partys Future
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Former president Donald Trumps popularity rating among Republicans has begun to bounce back since he left office, with half of respondents saying they think he should play a major role in the GOPs future.
According to tracking by Morning Consult, 81 per cent of Republican voters polled between 23 to 25 January hold positive views of Mr Trump, including 54 per cent who do so strongly.
The number marks an improvement on the 76 per cent low of Republican voters who favoured him in tracking between 10 and 12 of January ahead of his impeachment when those who strongly favoured Mr Trump sat at 49 per cent.
Fifty percent of Republican voters in a poll by the company between the 22 and 25 of January also think Mr Trump should maintain a significant role in the partys future, an increase of nine percentage points since the insurrection.
The former presidents popularity dropped following the 6 January when pro-Trump supporters attacked the Capitol as lawmakers gathered to certify Joe Bidens win, vandalising and looting the building.
The samples included responses from more than 4,400 Republican voters, with margins of error of 1 point.
Nearly half of Republican voters disapprove of McConnells approach to impeachment, while 32 percent approve of how hes tackled the issue.
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Voxs German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administrations burst of policymaking. .
As for Trump, Bidens 42.9 percent approval rating right now is only slightly higher than Trumps 42 percent on the eve of the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost 40 House seats.
The one potential silver lining for Biden is that the trajectory of Trumps numbers shows that some improvement in the second year is possible, albeit rare. Trumps approval rating hit its lowest point in 2017 but improved by about 5 points over 2018, which likely helped him avoid an even worse midterm defeat. It is possible that if conditions in the country improve, Bidens numbers could rebound.
Of course, things could also get worse.
Biden Campaign Launches Turnout Effort Targeting Lgbtq Voters
Joe Bidens presidential campaign on Monday announced the launch of a robust get-out-the-vote effort targeting LGBTQ voters.
The effort, called, Out for Biden, will be aimed at turning out a record number of LGBTQ voters in November by fostering relationships with pro-equality partners to register and mobilize LGBTQ+ voters around the country, with an emphasis on key battleground states, the campaign said in a statement.
Our campaigns decision to launch Out for Biden in the shadow of historic protest elevates the power of the moment and encourages deep and sometimes difficult dialogue within our LGBTQ+ community as Pride month begins, said Reggie Greer, the Biden campaigns LGBTQ+ vote director. LGBTQ+ people of color are central to the fabric of our communities. We must elect a government that will center their voices and celebrate the contributions of LGBTQ+ people everywhere, Greer added.
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A Key Question Moving Forward: Is Trumps Grip On The Gop Stronger Than His Bases
An odd fight broke out earlier this week that may well have escaped your notice. A former senior member of Donald Trumps administration released the results of polling arguing that the former presidents grip on the Republican base has weakened. Trump and his team pushed back hard, but that was largely ignored because of the release of the verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial and Trumps diminished voice in the public sphere.
The argument made by a super PAC associated with former national security adviser John Bolton centered on the extent to which Republican voters were still likely to follow Trumps political lead. The desired outcome here is obvious: Bolton, who became a vocal Trump critic, wants to suggest to Republicans that the political cost of bucking Trump has faded. Ergo, the poll.
It centered on three points: that Trumps favorability has fallen, that his endorsement isnt critical and that many Republicans dont plan to support him in a possible 2024 bid. Each of those arguments, though, isnt very strong. The favorability drop compares two polls and shows a small shift from very favorable views to somewhat favorable. The endorsement point leverages a format would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump, etc. that is notoriously iffy.
The 2024 polling still shows Trump at 50 percent among Republican voters, 39 points above the second-place contender. Not exactly a weak position in a crowded field.
The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
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