Which Democratic Candidate Has The Best Chance To Beat Trump

The Big Question For Michigan Democrats: Is Biden Or Sanders More Likely To Beat Trump

Joe Biden, left, and Bernie Sanders are set for a competitive Democratic presidential primary race in Michigan on March 10, 2020.

Tom Wentz and Troy Zukowski-Serlin are Michigan residents passionate about wanting President Trump voted out of office.

But Wentz and Zukowski-Serlin have different theories on how to make that happen.

Wentz, a 38-year-old Hillsdale resident, thinks the Democrats need Bernie Sanders as their candidate. Only Sanders can channel the passion and populist fervor that got Trump elected in 2016, he says.

If its not Bernie, Trump wins. I strongly believe that, Wentz said. Sanders brings out voters who otherwise dont give a s***.

Wentz said hed have a hard time voting for Joe Biden, Sanders main competitor for the Democratic nomination.

As an establishment candidate, Biden is the complete opposite of Bernie, Wentz said. I thought we wanted to vote for change.

Zukowski-Serlin, a 56-year-old Portage resident, has the opposite view.

In a country exhausted by the Trump presidency, he sees Biden as an experienced, well-respected leader who can beat Trump in November by promising a return to normalcy and stability.

I think hes a good man, Zukowski-Serlin said about Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist. But his policies are too far out of the mainstream.

As Michigan Democrats weigh their options for the states presidential primary on Tuesday, its largely come down to Sanders vs. Biden.

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Black Voters Are The Backbone Of The Democratic Party But

So far, white voters have discounted their views. Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota are flatlining with black voters, polling at 4 percent and 0 percent, respectively, in the latest Quinnipiac poll. Their records are troubling. Mr. Buttigieg oversaw a sharp in the number of black police officers, pushed out both the black police chief and fire chief, and his handling of the shooting of a black man by a police officer prompted anger and outrage among black residents. For her part, a case Ms. Klobuchar cited as an example of her tough-on-crime approach during her tenure as a county prosecutor might have resulted in the wrongful conviction of a black teenager. Sunny Hostin, a former prosecutor and co-host of the The View, called the case one of the most flawed investigations and prosecutions that I think I have ever seen. But both have been propelled forward because white voters have made up nearly all of the votes cast so far.

The Rest Of The Democratic Field

The following candidates have odds that fall just outside the top 5 most likely Democrats to beat Donald Trump. Andrew Yang narrowly missed the cut, but we think his odds will get a boost when he takes the debate stage. The same is likely true for Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar. However, Beto, Booker, and Gillibrand are falling fast will need to come up with some way to stop the ship from sinking.

Andrew Yang

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When it comes to Bidens likability, he soars among almost every demographic and is more favorable than Donald Trump . However, Biden also sits atop all the potential 2020 candidates as the only candidate with a favorability over 50 percent, according to late December Quinnipiac polling.

Biden has a track record of working across the aisle to get things done. Biden was the guy who negotiated the fiscal cliff deal with Senator Mitch McConnell as well as a major part of the 2010 deal that extended the Bush tax cuts, because he doesnt view Republicans as enemies, he knows he needs to work with them in order to get things done. This is exactly the right tone that needs to be set on the campaign trail especially as Republican voters in general and Trump supporters in particular feel vilified by the media.

Just this week, he responded to criticism of himself in the New York Times for being bipartisan saying, I read in the New York Times today that one of my problems if I were to run for president, I like Republicans. OK, well bless me father for I have sinned.

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A Stable Race Is Suddenly Not

For the past year, the race orbited reliably around Joe Biden. He was in a tier by himself. Candidates in the tier below him traded positions and some dropped out, but nothing about the fundamental structure of the race changed. Mr. Biden may still bounce back, but the force he exerted on the race appears to be a thing of the past.

Joe Bidens Long And Rocky Road To The Democratic Nomination

Joe Biden addresses donors during a virtual fundraising event at the Hotel DuPont in Wilmington, Del., on Aug. 12. Biden will accept his partyâs nomination at this weekâs Democratic National Convention.hide caption

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Joe Biden addresses donors during a virtual fundraising event at the Hotel DuPont in Wilmington, Del., on Aug. 12. Biden will accept his partyâs nomination at this weekâs Democratic National Convention.

When former Vice President Joseph Biden Jr. becomes the Democratic Partyâs official nominee for president on Thursday, he will complete two historic and improbable comebacks.

Earlier this year, Biden rose from roadkill status in early February voting to effectively claim the nomination by the end of March.

But 2020 was far from the first time Biden bid for the White House. His nomination realizes the dream of a recurrent campaign first launched more than three decades ago in another political era, in another century. No other major party nominee has reached this plateau so many years after their first formal candidacy.

Most Americans know Biden as the No. 2 who served eight years under Barack Obama. They may know that Biden previously had been a high-profile, six-term senator from Delaware, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and then the Foreign Relations Committee.

A rough start to 2020

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Opinioni’ve Been Talking About Beto O’rourke Since 2017 He’s A 2020 Democratic Frontrunner For A Reason

Furthermore, there are two key demographics that swung for Trump in the 2016 election that Democrats need to win back in 2020: Independent voters and most importantly, suburban female voters. In the 2016 election, over 47 percent of Trumps voters were women a statistic that still shocks many pundits and analysts to this day. But due to the rhetoric and blunders of the White House, nearly 30 percent of those women now have a very poor impression of Trump according to a recent Pew Research Poll.

Worse than just their sentiments toward Trump, though, suburban women who catapulted him into the White House swung blue in the midterm elections. A USA Today analysis of the 2018 midterm election found more than 80 suburban counties and cities with high incomes and large number of college-educated voters voted more Democratic than in 2016. These gains were huge for Democrats, but this demographic could change again in 2020 if Republicans were to get smart about their candidates, rhetoric, and strategy, which no one expects.

These suburban and college-educated women who are increasingly aligning themselves with the Democratic party also describe themselves as mostly moderates looking for a government that compromises.

The Electability Candidate Is Bad At Running For President

Mr. Biden seemed to have a lock on the issue voters cared most about: electability. His hold on this issue was strengthened by the preponderance of polls showing him beating Mr. Trump by the biggest margins of any of the candidates. The problem is that the reality of Mr. Biden on the ground has never matched Mr. Bidens numbers on paper. His debate performances have been generally received as lukewarm to poor, he consistently failed to fill rooms at his events and his performance on the stump has been criticized as lackluster.

The question has always been whether election results would converge with his performance on the ground or his performance in polls. Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire saw more of Mr. Biden than voters anywhere else, and entrance polls showed voters in both states prioritizing electability over all other issues. And they placed him fourth and fifth, respectively. At least in Mr. Bidens case, the election results converged with the candidates performance in real life, not the polls.

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Bidens Best Hope For 2024 Might Be Donald Trump

President Biden sees himself as the Democrat with the best chance of beating former President Trump.

The president is suffering from anemic approval ratings, with a recent poll showing a majority of Democrats dont want him to be the partys nominee in 2024.

Hes facing record high inflation, a turbulent political and media environment, and deep frustration within his party over its inability to protect abortion rights and take action on climate change.

Its no wonder many are beginning to look for alternatives in two years as Democrats face the prospect of a tough midterm election in which they could lose the House and Senate majorities.

Yet the same New York Times-Siena College poll that had terrible news for Biden also showed he would still beat Trump in a head-to-head match-up 44 percent to 40 percent if the next presidential election were held today.

Its pretty clear that the strongest argument for Biden 2024 is a Biden vs. Trump rematch, said Democratic strategist Joel Payne.

In the Times poll, Bidens approval rating hit a low of 33 percent, and it showed a majority of Democrats want someone other than him to run in 2024.

Yet one top Democratic donor said the poll showing Biden beating Trump, who could announce a new run for the White House any day, is giving the president some life at a time when he really needs it.

Given Bidens political problems, the 2024 scenario is setting itself up as quite the conundrum for Democrats.

Who Has The Best Shot At Beating Trump Who Knows

The difficult choice facing Democratic primary voters looks even more inscrutable after last weeks first round of party presidential debates.

Nothing matters more to Democratic voters than picking a nominee with the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, who many party activists consider an existential threat to their values and priorities. But the question of which Democrat is most electable against Trump looks murkier and more contested than ever after last weeks debates.

In the races early stages, the electability argument mostly benefited former Vice President Joe Biden, polls found. But he faced new doubts after his wobbly performance in last weeks second night of the debates, and in a new CNN poll conducted after the debates, his support had dropped 10 percentage points from the last survey, in May.

Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts gained new fans with their forceful debate performances, and surged to second and third place behind Biden in the new CNN survey, released Monday. But they also immediately faced questions about whether their embrace of unabashedly liberal positions during the sessions in particular, banning private health insurance, though Harris, as shes done before, rhetorically obscured her position in the aftermath had made them less competitive in a general election.

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What To Watch In Michigan Primary: Trump Factor Poll Challengers Late Results

• Michigan Republicans will pick which candidate to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer
• Trump has endorsed in 10 state House races and a contested Congressional
• Democratic incumbents square off in legislative, congressional races

LANSING Months of campaigning comes to a head Tuesday, as Michigan voters who havent already cast absentee ballots will head to the polls to decide contested primaries for governor, state Legislature, Senate, Congress and more

The Aug. 2 primary is the first major statewide election since November 2020, when then-President Donald Trumps 154,188-vote loss spawned global conspiracy theories that nearly upended the democratic process.

Trump is not on the ballot this time around, but the former president continues to loom large in Republican primaries. President Joe Biden does as well, as his dismal approval ratings threaten to drag down Democrats in the general election.

Here are some of the top races and storylines Bridge Michigan will be following on Election Day and beyond:

The Democratic National Convention Starts Monday Heres What You Need To Know

Sanders and Buttigieg again virtually tied in New Hampshireâs primary on Feb. 11. Biden came in fifth, the choice of only one out of every 12 voters.

As Sanders and Buttigieg dueled for delegates, it was Sanders who got the biggest boost in the polls. His rise coincided with his big win in the Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses, where the avowed democratic socialist showed strong appeal among Hispanic voters and got nearly half the votes overall. Media reports were routinely referring to him as the front-runner.

But Biden stayed alive in Nevada, finishing second with 20%. It was enough to carry him to South Carolina and redemption.

Clyburnâs crucial contribution

Joe Biden celebrates his win in the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29, 2020. An endorsement from Rep. James Clyburn proved pivotal.hide caption

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Joe Biden celebrates his win in the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29, 2020. An endorsement from Rep. James Clyburn proved pivotal.

South Carolinaâs first-in-the-South primary matters in the Democratic contest because it is the first event where African American voters with whom Biden had residual appeal as Obamaâs vice president carry outsize influence. As attention turned to the Palmetto State, its senior officeholder, James Clyburn, the highest ranking Black member of Congress as the House majority whip, announced his endorsement of Biden.

The longer comeback

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Joe Biden Is Deeply Unpopular But Can Democrats Find An Alternative For 2024

For now, Biden is emboldened. No prominent Democrat will cross him and he will feel especially motivated if Trump is back on the campaign trail

The Democrats find themselves with a 2024 conundrum. Joe Biden, the partys standard-bearer, is widely disliked. A new poll found that a 64% of Democrats would want a candidate other than Biden to seek the nomination in two years. Rapid inflation has eaten away at the 79-year-old presidents popularity and he is viewed as increasingly out of touch, a vestige of another era that many voters want to leave behind.

At the same time, Biden will easily win a Democratic primary if he runs again. Sitting presidents are rarely forced aside. The top candidates in a hypothetical primary dont want to take him on almost all of them ruled out the idea of waging a direct challenge. This is understandable, since no single governor or senator has the ability to defeat Biden, one-on-one. Democrats look warily to examples like Ted Kennedy, who ran a primary against President Jimmy Carter and was soundly beaten. Carter went on to lose the general election, in 1980, to Ronald Reagan.

For now, Biden is emboldened. No prominent Democrat will cross him and he will feel especially motivated if Trump is back on the campaign trail. Biden and Trump crave a rematch, even though each political party would be better off if both men moved on.

• Ross Barkan is a New York-based journalist

There Are Other Mysteries

Turnout is down, based on Iowa except that it might also be up, based on New Hampshire. More moderate candidates are more electable, based on a study of congressional candidates except that the leftier candidate might also be more electable, judging by Barack Obamas dominant win in 2008 after beating Hillary Clinton for the nomination. Twitter is not real life, based on the composition of the Democratic electorate except when it is, foretelling Mr. Bidens fall and Mr. Sanderss rise. There are two lanes, progressive and moderate except when there arent, as Ms. Klobuchars surge in New Hampshire took voters away from both Ms. Warren and Mr. Biden.

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Biden Has The Best Shot At Carrying The Senate

Any Democrat who could beat Trump would only have a shot at a transformative presidency if he or she also took the Senate. Right now, it looks bleak for Democrats.

McConnell controls the Senate by three votes . And in 2020, there is no Republican running in a state that Clinton carried by 5 points or more. So while Democrats defend seats in 12 states where theyre up for reelection, a few of them tough races, theyll also have to flip seats in at least three competitive races to take back control of Congress.

Most Democrats believe their best bets for flips are in Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and Maine. Biden has earned about a dozen endorsements across these states, including from Napolitano, the only Democrat to be elected governor in the state since 1982.

Vulnerable Democrats defending seats include Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan, a state where Biden has consistently polled above Trump by a higher margin than any other candidate. Hes earned some half a dozen endorsements from sitting lawmakers there, too.

Similarly, hes picked up strong support in Alabama.

Even if you look at an example like the state of Alabama where theres a clear dichotomy between urban-exurban and rural, hes uniquely positioned not to move just urban voters, said Democratic Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin, who has endorsed Biden. When you think about all parts of the state, hes actually able to excite and motivate those same Alabamians who may be white or rural.