Biden May Think He Can Beat Trump In 2024 But What If The Gop Chooses Someone Else
Following the various setbacks and missteps by the Biden administration, talk among Democrats that President Joe Biden should step aside to let a younger, more nimble politician lead the party into the 2024 election cycle is increasingly out in the open.
Pouring a bit of gasoline on this simmering debate within the party is Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who said Wednesday that it is certainly possiblethat Biden will face a Democratic primary challenge ahead of 2024. Then came some eyebrow-raising commentson the very same day by Vice President Kamala Harris. During a flight aboard Air Force Two, the vice president said that the president intends to run and if he does, I will be his ticket-mate the if in her remark fueling fresh speculation that a second Biden bid might not be such a sure thing.
The president has failed to meet the moment by not adequately addressing important kitchen table issues across the country.
But its not just elected officials who are questioning whether Biden should or will throw his hat in the ring for a repeat recent polling by YouGovsuggests that as few as 4 in 10 Democrats are convinced he should run again in 2024. Biden, for his part, has apparently become increasingly irritated by fellow members of his party who regularly bring up the matter of him stepping asidewhile at the same time working overtime to sell his viability for a Round #2 to party leaders.
To Beat Trump Would Require A Candidate Who Could Unite A Coalition Of Never
Former President Donald Trump remains the favored candidate to win the Republican nomination in 2024 should he run, and hes confident its his if he wants it.
If I do run, I think that Ill do extremely well, Trump told Yahoo Finance in an interview earlier this month. Im not only looking at polls, Im looking at the enthusiasm.
Trump has come out ahead in recent polls of potential 2024 contenders, including a Politico-Morning Consult poll released Oct. 13 that found 47% of Republican voters would vote for Trump if the primary was held today. That put Trump far ahead of his nearest competitors, former Vice President Mike Pence, at 13%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, at 12%. Trump said hes not concerned about any potential challengers.
I think most people would drop out, I think would drop out, and if I faced him Id beat him like Id beat everyone else, frankly, Trump said.
Some polls this year have found a significant segment of Republican voters want someone else as their nominee in 2024, though. A poll earlier this year by Trumps 2020 pollster Fabrizio and Lee found about half of all Republicans would prefer a different nominee, while a Pew Research survey released earlier this month found 52% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want someone new.
A Large Number Of Republicans Might Run In 2024
Plenty of Republicans have been buzzed about for a potential 2024 run. They include come-again candidates such as GOP Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida, and would-be first-time presidential candidates like former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Both Christie and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, an anti-Trump Republican, have said theyd run for president regardless of what Trump does.
A recent NBC News report said that Trump might choose to announce as early as July 4 that hes running. But the former president could easily wait until the middle or even end of 2023 to reveal his intentions and still have plenty of time to qualify for primary ballots and run a nationwide campaign.
But winning the nomination doesnt mean Trump would win the presidency, DuHaime said.
Biden and Democrats are really hoping Republicans nominate Trump, he said. Almost any Republican other than Trump could keep 2024 focused on Bidens performance. All other Republicans could focus on the future while Trump cant help but focus on the past.
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Whos Best To Beat Trump 7 Answers When 7 Democrats Debate
Making a case for the nomination, onstage together for one last time in 2019.
WASHINGTON Senator Elizabeth Warren argued that Democrats would defeat President Trump if they draw the sharpest distinction with what she called the administrations corruption and suggested that Mayor Pete Buttigiegs high-dollar fund-raising would undermine their ability to do that. Mr. Buttigieg said his party could scarcely afford to hew to such purity tests in a race against Mr. Trump.
And Senator Amy Klobuchar was even less subtle, repeatedly citing her heartland roots to argue that Democrats could win only if they put a Midwesterner like her at the top of the ticket, while recalling that Mr. Buttigieg had been soundly defeated in his one statewide race in Indiana.
In Washington, those who make politics a vocation or an avocation are consumed with this weeks impeachment of Mr. Trump, the branding of a scarlet I upon his tenure. But on the other side of the country, on the Democratic debate stage in Los Angeles, the candidates circled around a different vowel, and a different word the E word.
As in: electability.
Or, rather, which of the candidates running can eject Mr. Trump from the White House next year, now that its clear Republican senators wont offer the votes to convict him.
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Bloomberg Viewed As Having Best Chance To Beat Trump In Betting Market Analysis
Former New York City Mayor Michael BloombergDonald TrumpRepublicans fret over Trumps influence in Missouri Senate raceSenate confirms first Korean-American woman as federal appeals judgeMORE if nominated, according to a newly released betting market analysis.
However, the analysis from researchers at Standard Chartered Bank, first reported by CNBC, also found that Bloomberg is viewed as having a 10 percent chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Our interpretation of online market pricing is that Bloomberg is viewed as having the highest chance among Democrats of beating Trump if nominated. But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10 percent, the study states.
The research shows that among the top-polling candidates, Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenPoll: 71 percent support Bidens omicron travel ban Invest in kids and families now so that someday Ill be out of a jobMORE are the two candidates viewed as having the highest chances of winning given perceptions about how friendly they would be for asset markets.
Among investors, Bloomberg and Biden are probably viewed as the most asset-market friendly among the Democratic candidates, so their greater implied electability may be why US assets are not showing more stress, the researchers wrote.
The former mayor has spent more than $200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $1 billion to defeat Trump, even if he is not the nominee.
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Ron Desantis’ Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
The biggest riser on the presidential election odds board is DeSantis, who was +6,600 a year ago, +550 at the start of July, and is now at +300 . The 43-year-old remains coy about whether he will run for President but has become a Republican firebrand figure for his laissez-faire policies during the COVID-19 pandemic and his enactment of the Stop WOKE Act.
In the annual Western Conservative Summits straw poll taken last month, 71% of participants said they wanted DeSantis to run for president in 2024, compared to 67% for Trump.
While in the past, Trump has suggested that DeSantis would be unlikely to run against him, things may have changed. DeSantis has now amassed more than $100 million in his fundraising coffers and has declined to ask Trump for a reelection endorsement in Florida.
With Trump having a history of handing out endorsements based on loyalty, DeSantis refusing to kiss the ring could be a sign that he’s seriously considering running against him.
Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election
The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .
Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .
Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.
Party and ideology
Geography
Religion
White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .
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Would Trumps Support Change If He Were Charged With A Crime
The former president faces a handful of investigations, including from the Department of Justice and the U.S. House select committee on the origins of the Jan. 6 attack, a grand jury looking into potential election interference in Georgia and, most recently, an FBI probe into classified materials removed from the White House and kept at Trumps Florida estate. Some had been recovered or returned earlier this year. But when the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last month, agents still found more than 100 classified documents and 43 empty folders with classified markings, among thousands of other official records, according to a Department of Justice list of items.
Support for Trumps candidacy in 2024 would not change much if any of these investigations result in Trump being charged with a crime, according to this poll. Sixty-five percent of Americans would oppose another run for the White House. More than six in 10 Republicans would still want to see him launch a campaign. Meanwhile, 73 percent of independents say he should not run again if he is charged.
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This poll is just a snapshot of the current political environment. With two months until the midterm elections and another two years until the 2024 presidential election, a lot can still change with the Republican primary field and the investigations.
Graphic by Megan McGrew
Betting Odds For President Donald Trump
Before we weigh each of the Democrats chances of beating Trump, we need to look at the odds for Trump himself and determine if his chances are rising or falling.
Donald Trump
- % Change: +7.62%
- Trump has been favored to win re-election since the start of the year and his chances of winning have continued to rise in 2019. This is likely due to two factors: 1) Were slowly getting closer to the election and incumbents always have an edge and 2) The public money does not believe he will be impeached, which gives him a clear path to be on the ballot as the Republican nominee when the 2020 election rolls around whereas the Democratic nomination is much more uncertain.
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New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand A Serious Threat To Win
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is a serious threat simply by the fact she represents the powerful Empire State. Aged 52, she’s married to venture capitalist Jonathan Gillibrand. Polls indicate Kamala Harris is the biggest threat. Of those who would be happy with the New Yorker, 75 per cent would be satisfied with the Californian.
Who Has The Best Chance To Beat Trump In 2020
Of the 23 Democrats seeking the partys nomination, only one will face incumbent Republican President Donald Trump on Tuesday, November 3 during the 2020 US presidential election.
So, this begs the question: Who has the best chance of beating Trump in 2020?
To answer this, well examine how the betting odds for each of the Democratic candidates have changed since 2019 began and whether their chances have gone up or down over that time.
We have tracked the 2020 odds for all presidential candidates since the start of the year , and the current odds taken on May 24 can be found at Bovada Sportsbook.
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Gavin Newsom’s Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
While Biden remains the Democrat favorite according to oddsmakers, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that 64% of Democratic voters want somebody other than Biden to represent them in the 2024 election.
While a sitting president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to lose in the general election.
At 79, Biden is already the oldest president in history. If he steps down due to his age and declining popularity, younger challengers like Gavin Newsom or Pete Buttigieg will emerge.
Newsom served as the mayor of San Francisco from 2004 to 2011 and has been the governor of California since 2019. He has surged up the board from +6,000 earlier this year and is now up to +1,400 .
If the Democratic party decides to move on from candidates that were born before Willie Mays was a rookie , Newsom or Buttigieg could be excellent value plays.
Trump Should Not Run For President In 2024 Majority Of Americans Say
As former President Donald Trump considers launching another bid for the White House, more than six in 10 Americans do not want him to run in 2024, according to a new PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. And while Trumps possession of more than 10,000 government documents at his Florida home seems not to have changed the minds of his steady supporters, a plurality of Americans think he has done something illegal.
The level of support for another Trump campaign remains virtually unchanged from December 2020, the month after he lost the presidential election and weeks before a mob of his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an effort to stop the certification of the Electoral College votes.
His numbers dont move. Theyre locked in, said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The good thing for former President Trump is his numbers dont drop. The bad thing is hes only talking about a third of the electorate who are in his corner.
Graphics by Megan McGrew
Thats not a great place to launch an election campaign, he added.
Just 28 percent of independents believe Trump should run again, this poll found, while two-thirds say the former president should sit out the next election. According to 2020 exit polling, 41 percent of independents had voted for Trumps reelection, suggesting a significant cratering of support since.
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Graphic by Megan McGrew
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Top 5 Democrats With The Best Chance To Beat Trump
Well rank each Democrat based on their current odds, display whether their chances have been going up or down since January 1, 2019, and provide some insight into the top 5 most likely Trump challengers. Some candidates didnt have odds to start the year or currently dont have odds at all and well indicate when thats the case.
1. Joe Biden
- % Change: +13.33%
- The former Vice President saw his odds skyrocket after he officially made his announcement in late April. Biden is now not only the Democratic favorite but public money has also made him the biggest riser on the board since 2019 began. His national recognition and huge favorability Rust Belt where Trump won big in 2016 makes Biden the biggest threat to Trumps re-election bid.
2. Bernie Sanders
- % Change: +5.83%
- Sen. Bernie Sanders comes second and is not far behind Biden. The Vermont US senator gained national attention in 2016 for his Democratic Socialism platform and became Hillary Clintons biggest challenger for the partys nomination. This time, the public knows who Bernie is, which is why hes received more first-quarter donations than any other Democratic candidate.
3. Kamala Harris
4. Pete Buttigieg
5. Elizabeth Warren
Mike Pences Chances Of Beating Donald Trump In 2024 According To Polls
Neither former President Donald Trump nor former Vice President Mike Pence has declared he will make a run for the White House in 2024, but there has been enough speculation regarding both men that pollsters have gauged public opinion about a potential matchup.
So far, survey results indicate Pence would not fare well against Trump.
On Thursday, the House committee investigating the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol is planning to focus on allegations that Trump tried to pressure Pence into not certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election. Trumps alleged actions are being examined as one of the main potential causes of the riot, during which threats were reportedly made against Pences life.
Pence and Trump have had a strained relationship since leaving the White House because of the former vice presidents decision not to interfere with the certification of President Joe Bidens election victory. In the summer of 2021, Pence called January 6 a dark day during a Republican dinner and added that he and Trump may never see eye to eye on the event, according to an NBC News report from the time. Meanwhile, Trump said in an interview last month he was very disappointed in Pence for not supporting his claims of election fraud, which are not backed by any evidence.
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