An Examination Of The 2020 Electorate Based On Validated Voters
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016 and 2018. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted.
We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 2018 and 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATPs methodology.
Validated voters, defined
Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis:
Tackling Migration Us Vp Harris Backs Investment In Latin America
Amid predictions of a Trump vs Biden rematch in 2024, polls suggest voters want neither, but a new face with a focused agenda to repair the economy, the job market and control rising prices of groceries and gas, and eventually the 40-year-high inflation ahead of the winter.
Odds seem stacked against the Democrats in the upcoming Nov mid-term polls, with President Joe Biden, First Lady Jill Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ratings plummeting by the day and Donald Trump with a wafer-thin edge over the incumbent President.
The battle of the ballot is going to be over the Biden administration’s efforts to rejuvenate the economy and rid it of inflation, fears of recession, control soaring house rentals, properties, grocery prices, shortage of raw materials, scarcity of baby food formulas vs Trump’s ability to survive the tearing pieces of evidence of his alleged collaboration in assembling and inciting a riotous mob at the Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 to not to certify Biden’s election.
However, how much of this is going to weigh in with the voters in midterms and in the primaries with the party members and funders for both the ex and incumbent is the big question.
UK’s The Guardian says on the Republican side of the ledger, “Someone else” also led, with 38.1 per cent of the vote.
Florida Governor Rino DeSantis has attracted 23.4 per cent support and Mike Pence, Trump’s Vice President, received 20.5 per cent.
Will Trump Be Healthy Enough To Run In The 2024 Election
Former White House aide Omarosa Manigault Newman is doubtful that Trump will be healthy enough to run in the 2024 election. Trumps health has always been some sort of an enigma. Newman thinks that the former president needs to come clean to the American people about his health.
Trump was infected with the coronavirus and some reports suggest that it was a severe infection. It’s widely believed that his COVID-19 battle was worse than what was acknowledged at that time.
Being the American president is a stressful job and the person needs to be physically and mentally fit for the job. Newmans views on Trump should be taken with a pinch of salt. They had a falling out after her book Unhinged: An Insider’s Account of the Trump White House was published in 2018.
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Regrets: Trump Would Beat Biden Today More Women And Blacks Support
A slew of new polls have come out this week showing the shrinking support for and approval of President Joe Biden, his average now below 50%.
But today, Rasmussen Reports is issuing the capper, telling Secrets that in an election do-over, Biden would lose to former President Donald Trump.
The details of the survey, which samples more Democrats than Republicans, showed that Trump would win more women and blacks than he did in 2020 when he lost to Biden, 46.8%-51.3%.
A sizable 14% would choose some other candidate, though none were named.
The survey comes at a key point in Bidens presidency. He is now under fire for bungling Americas withdrawal from Afghanistan, increasing inflation, and spiraling crime.
Several other surveys out this week have shown his approval rating underwater, a place Trump floated for much of his presidency.
Today, Axios headlined, Biden’s average approval rating drops below 50% for first time. It cited poll trackers from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics.
The site added, This marks a precipitous decline from the FiveThirtyEight peak of 55.1% in March and the RCP peak of 55.7% in April.
Despite showing Trump edging Biden in an election today, most told Rasmussen that they do not regret their 2020 vote. Some 89% said so, led by 95% of Republicans. For Democrats, it was less, 87%.
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What To Monitor: Polling Data
Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now , candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. Thats why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.
As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.
For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:
- Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
- FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.
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Can You Bet In The Us
You cannot legally bet on US elections using traditional sportsbooks but PredictIt allows users to trade shares much like the stock market on the outcomes of elections and events.
PredictIt has dozens of markets in which you can try and predict the outcome of a political race or event. The way it works is that you buy shares for or against an event taking place. You can then trade your shares, with the goal of buying your shares low and then selling them high.
One example of a PredictIt market is Will Donald Trump file to run for President before the end of 2022?
On June 25, the closing price on Yes for Trump to file to run for President before the end of 2022 was 38 cents. On June 27 it was 41 cents and on July 1 it was at 37 cents.
Its up to you to decide whether to cash in or hang on until the market closes.
If you , you will get $50 free when you deposit $50.
Here Are Several Reasons Why President Trump Can Beat Joe Biden
As we head into the home stretch of the most consequential election in many decades, what we need to remember is there is nothingnothingthat the media defenders of Joe Biden wouldnt do to help drag the pro-abortion former Vice President across the finish line.
In that sense, the media elite have adopted the technique Biden used in the first presidential debate against pro-life President Donald Trump. Attribute to him what, in fact, is true about Biden.
It helped to have a compliant Chris Wallace as moderator. But even Wallaces ears should have perked up when Bidenwho takes entire days at a time offhad the chutzpah to tell President to get out of his bunker. This, of course, is diametrically opposed to what Biden and his legion of media enablers otherwise say 24 hours a day: President Trump is out and about too much.
Here are some headlines and follow up information:
*Poll: 56% Americans Say They Are Better Off Now Under Trump Than Four Years Ago Under Obama-Biden Only 32 percent say they are worse off than four years agoMatthew Boyles
* Youll know my opinion on Court-packing when the election is overJoe Biden on Thursday.
*Republicans Are Spending $60 Million on a Digital Get-Out-the-Vote Campaign: The Republican National Committee has unleashed its biggest digital push to date to get voters to cast their ballots even if it means by mail New York Times
What I had not seen highlighted was this additional finding from Gallup:
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Can Donald Trump Run Again In 2024
Yes, Donald Trump can run for re-election in 2024.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters
As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.
In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.
Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .
The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.
Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.
However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.
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Former Us President Donald Trump Had A Slight Lead In A Poll On The Hypothetical 2024 Election Matchup With Joe Biden
Donald Trump is slightly favored over Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup, according to a poll Emerson College conducted from August to September 2021.
Some 47% of respondents preferred Trump, while 46% preferred Biden, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
Biden’s overall approval rating was 46% and disapproval was 47%, with 7% undecided. This is a lower approval rating than an Emerson poll from February, in which 49% of respondents approved of Biden’s presidency and 39% disapproved, with 12% undecided.
Both politicians are the preferred candidate for their party in the 2024 election. 60% of Democrats said they want President Biden to be the presidential nominee and 39% said they would rather it be someone else. Meanwhile, 67% of Republicans said they would vote for former President Trump in the primary while only 10% said they would prefer another candidate, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. If Trump is not an option, 32% said they would vote for DeSantis and 24% said they would pick former Vice President Mike Pence.
The Emerson report noted that enthusiasm regarding the 2022 midterm elections is low, with only 71% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans saying they are likely to vote.
Bidenworld Wants To Make The Midterms More About Trump And Hopes Elon Musk Helps
Still, some allies and Democrats privately worry that Biden may not be able to handle the rigors of another campaign.
A bone he broke in his foot while playing with his dog in late November 2020 still occasionally bothers Biden, resulting in a slower and shorter gait. And the White House has largely abandoned using the Oval Office for press events in part because it cant be permanently equipped with a teleprompter Biden aides prefer the fake White House stage built in the Old Executive Office Building next door for events, sacrificing some of the power of the historic backdrop in favor of an otherwise sterile room that was outfitted with an easily read teleprompter screen.
And if Biden were to run again in 2024, it almost certainly would be a more rigorous campaign than the one he previously mounted. The outbreak of Covid kept Biden in his Delaware home for much of the 2020 general election campaign, sparing him the wear and tear of relentless travel.
As for Trump, the issues are not related to physical health so much as psychological conditioning. He wants to run, those who know him say, but wants to be sure he will win.
I always said that he would run if Biden is under 44 or 43 but if Biden is at 46, 47, he will pass, said Bryan Lanza, a GOP strategist and former Trump campaign official. Right now he is at 41 so I have to say yes right now there has to be a dramatic turning out in Biden numbers for him to pass.
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Biden Camp Calls Trump Statement ‘outrageous’
The presidents statement tonight about trying to shut down the counting of duly cast ballots was outrageous, unprecedented, and incorrect, said Biden campaign manager Jen OMalley Dillon in a statement:
It was outrageous because it is a naked effort to take away the democratic rights of American citizens.
It was unprecedented because never before in our history has a president of the United States sought to strip Americans of their voice in a national election. Having encouraged Republican efforts in multiple states to prevent the legal counting of these ballots before Election Day, now Donald Trump is saying these ballots cant be counted after Election Day either.
And it was incorrect because it will not happen. The counting will not stop. It will continue until every duly cast vote is counted. Because that is what our laws the laws that protect every Americans constitutional right to vote require.
We repeat what the Vice President said tonight: Donald Trump does not decide the outcome of this election. Joe Biden does not decide the outcome of this election. The American people decide the outcome of this election. And the democratic process must and will continue until its conclusion.
Remarks By President Biden At A At A Democratic National Committee Grassroots Rally
THE PRESIDENT: Wes, thank you for that introduction. And Wes is the real deal. The real deal. Folks, hes a combat veteran. Only drawback is hes a Rhodes Scholar. Former CEO of one of the biggest anti-poverty organizations in America. And if we all do our part, the next governor of Maryland!
Its been said many times before and been said here today and excuse my back, my mother would kill me but my back to you all. Excuse my back. The fact of the matter is, you have literally two of the best senators in the United States Senate: Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen.
As a matter of fact, were it not Chris being my debate partner, getting me prepared in the general election for President, I wouldnt be standing here. So, if you dont like me, blame Chris. Hes up for reelection this year. And I told him, Ill come campaign for him or against him, whichever will help the most.
Folks, look, both Ben, as well theyre strong and theyre principled. Theyre effective. Keep them. You need them. Hell, I need them.
Youve got a great congressional delegation, including Steny Hoyer, who has been a friend for a long time.
And how about that Jamie Raskin? Hasnt he stepped up? The man has stepped up. Hes done an incredible job. I like it. Hes done an incredible job, coming out of a tragic circumstance with his family.
You know, you got to keep them. You need them. And as I said, heck, I need them.
Your right to choose is on the ballot this year.
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Joe Biden Mocks Donald Trump Over Claim He ‘declassified Everything’
Biden cracked a smile and appeared to be close to laughing outside the White House on Friday after a reporter pointed out that Trump “said that he declassified all those documents” that are currently the subject of a Department of Justice investigation.
The president dismissed a question on whether Trump had the power to “just declassify them all” by mockingly stating that he had just “declassified everything in the world,” while also insisting that he was “not going to comment” on the matter.
“Well, I just want to know I’ve declassified everything in the world!” Biden said after grinning. “I’m the president, I can do it all! C’mon! Declassified everything… I’m not going to comment, because I don’t know the detail. I don’t even want to know, I’ll let the Justice Department take care.”
When asked if it was “ever appropriate” for a president to take home “classified and top secret documents,” Biden said that it depends on “the circumstances.” He was not asked whether it was appropriate for a president to keep classified documents at home after leaving office.
The version that was released on Friday following an order from Judge Bruce Reinhart was heavily redacted and obscured any clues about the identities of the informants.