Attempts To Delay Or Deny Election Results
Republican reactions to Donald Trump’s claims of 2020 election fraudTexas v. Pennsylvaniaamicus curiae
In November, Trump focused his efforts on trying to delay vote certifications at the county and state level. On December 2, Trump posted a 46-minute video to his social media in which he repeated his baseless claims that the election was “rigged” and fraudulent and called for either the state legislatures or the courts to overturn the results of the election and allow him to stay in office. He continued to apply pressure to elected Republicans in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in an unprecedented attempt to overturn the election result. Some commentators have characterized Trump’s actions as an attempted coup d’état or self-coup.
On December 15, the day after the electoral college vote, Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who was previously among those who would not recognize the election results, publicly accepted Biden’s win, saying, “Today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden.”
In a December 21 news conference, outgoing Attorney General William Barr disavowed several actions reportedly being considered by Trump, including seizing voting machines, appointing a special counsel to investigate voter fraud, and appointing one to investigate Hunter Biden.
Can We Expect Anything Other Than Biden Vs Trump In 2024
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : We know the 2022 midterm elections havent happened yet, but this summer has seen an unusual amount of activity on the 2024 front.
Namely, many Americans, including Democrats, are really down on the idea of President Biden seeking a second term, while former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle. A sizable portion of Americans say they dont want Biden or Trump to have a second term, but is there, uh a path for anyone who isnt Trump or Biden in 2024?
Lets tackle this chat in two parts:
OK, first up. Is there a Democrat who can take on Biden?
alex : I dont think so, Sarah, especially if Trump is the nominee. If Trump announces that hes running for a second term, I think: 1) Biden will run again, and 2) there wont be a damaging primary to take him down.
What Democrat is going to take Biden on against Trump? Democrats will coalesce around the nominee who can beat Trump, and Biden has already proved that he can.
alex: Right, Nathaniel. I just dont see notable Democrats wanting to participate in a messy, protracted primary against the sitting president. It would be a terrible look for the party.
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When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably — and immediately — ask some version of this question: “Is he going to run again? And can he win?”
The Point: Trump is the least predictable politician, well, ever. Which means that you can never bank of anything with him — including another run for president. But, man does it look and sound like he is going to run again. And, yes, he can win.
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Bidens Best Hope For 2024 Might Be Donald Trump
President Biden sees himself as the Democrat with the best chance of beating former President Trump.
The president is suffering from anemic approval ratings, with a recent poll showing a majority of Democrats dont want him to be the partys nominee in 2024.
Hes facing record high inflation, a turbulent political and media environment, and deep frustration within his party over its inability to protect abortion rights and take action on climate change.
Its no wonder many are beginning to look for alternatives in two years as Democrats face the prospect of a tough midterm election in which they could lose the House and Senate majorities.
Yet the same New York Times-Siena College poll that had terrible news for Biden also showed he would still beat Trump in a head-to-head match-up 44 percent to 40 percent if the next presidential election were held today.
Its pretty clear that the strongest argument for Biden 2024 is a Biden vs. Trump rematch, said Democratic strategist Joel Payne.
In the Times poll, Bidens approval rating hit a low of 33 percent, and it showed a majority of Democrats want someone other than him to run in 2024.
Yet one top Democratic donor said the poll showing Biden beating Trump, who could announce a new run for the White House any day, is giving the president some life at a time when he really needs it.
Given Bidens political problems, the 2024 scenario is setting itself up as quite the conundrum for Democrats.
Abortion Rights Or Restrictions
This is a textbook case for understanding how midterm voting can directly influence the shape of future policies and the day-to-day lives of Americans across the country.
In June the Supreme Court overturned constitutionally protected abortion rights. Both parties have already proposed new federal abortion legislation if they control Congress in the coming year.
Democrats promise to codify into federal law abortion rights that were protected by the Supreme Court’s Roe vs Wade decision. Republicans have proposed a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, a rule that would supersede existing protections in Democratic-run states like California, Illinois and New York.
Abortion rights will also play out in individual states, where the outcome of key governor and legislative races in traditional political battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan could directly determine the legality of the procedure in those states.
Who wins control at the federal and state levels will also impact what other policies are focused on. If Republicans prevail, expect immigration, religious rights and addressing violent crime to be a priority. For Democrats, the environment, healthcare, voting rights and gun-control will continue to remain high on the agenda.
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Still, some allies and Democrats privately worry that Biden may not be able to handle the rigors of another campaign.
A bone he broke in his foot while playing with his dog in late November 2020 still occasionally bothers Biden, resulting in a slower and shorter gait. And the White House has largely abandoned using the Oval Office for press events in part because it cant be permanently equipped with a teleprompter Biden aides prefer the fake White House stage built in the Old Executive Office Building next door for events, sacrificing some of the power of the historic backdrop in favor of an otherwise sterile room that was outfitted with an easily read teleprompter screen.
And if Biden were to run again in 2024, it almost certainly would be a more rigorous campaign than the one he previously mounted. The outbreak of Covid kept Biden in his Delaware home for much of the 2020 general election campaign, sparing him the wear and tear of relentless travel.
As for Trump, the issues are not related to physical health so much as psychological conditioning. He wants to run, those who know him say, but wants to be sure he will win.
I always said that he would run if Biden is under 44 or 43 but if Biden is at 46, 47, he will pass, said Bryan Lanza, a GOP strategist and former Trump campaign official. Right now he is at 41 so I have to say yes right now there has to be a dramatic turning out in Biden numbers for him to pass.
Coalition Is Bigger Than Racist Rioters
Similarly, we should resist the temptation to other Trump voters, whose inclinations are supposedly captured by the storming of the Capitol, just as we did Muslims from the fallout of 9/11. Some argue Trumpites dont deserve such generosity, citing polls that Republicans still accept the “Big Lie.”
For example, the Pew Research Center found that 64% of Republicans and those who lean Republican believed that Trump definitely/probably won the 2020 election.
But exit polls reveal a much more prosaic view of the Trump voter than one marauding through the Capitol with a Confederate flag. Not that the racist, authoritarian, Confederate flag bearing rioters werent a part of the Trump coalition. But they were only a part.
Another segment of the Trump coalition was composed of those who did well economically while Trump was in office and rewarded him for it. A surprising 41% of voters said their familys economic circumstances improved over the past four years, despite a punishing pandemic that saw unemployment rise, businesses close and spending decline. Exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool showed that Trump received more than three-quarters of this groups vote.
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The Power To Investigate And Obstruct
The midterm elections will have an impact well beyond policy circles, however. For two years, congressional oversight has been under Democratic control, limiting the amount of scrutiny the White House has faced and making the 6 January riot the primary focus of its investigations.
All that will change if Republicans take control of one chamber of Congress – or both. Already House Republicans are promising hearings on Joe Biden’s son Hunter’s business ties to China, as well as a detailed investigations into the Biden administration’s immigration policies, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.
If Republicans also take control of the US Senate, expect the process for confirming Biden picks to the federal courts and executive agencies to grind to a standstill.
Biden Thinks He Can Beat Trump Again The Odds Aren’t In His Favor
President Joe Biden has said he believes he can defeat former President Donald Trump if they face each other again in the 2024 presidential election but polls and betting odds paint a more complex picture.
The president discussed the matter during a wide-ranging interview with CNN‘s Jake Tapper on Tuesday and said he would take time to consider whether to run again after the upcoming midterm elections.
Both Biden and Trump have suggested they will run for the White House again but neither man has formally declared his candidacy the process of selecting the Democratic and Republican nominees won’t begin until early 2024.
“Is one of the calculations that you think you’re the only one who can beat Donald Trump?” Tapper asked.
“I believe I can beat Donald Trump again,” Biden replied.
Biden defeated Trump in 2020, winning both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote to secure the White House. However, polls and betting markets suggest the former president may have the advantage.
“Biden might be confident but the odds say otherwise, as our traders actually have Donald Trump the current 11/4 favorite to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election,” a spokesperson for Irish bookmakers Paddy Power told Newsweek on Wednesday.
Trump has a 26.7 percent likelihood of winning, while Biden has a 15.5 percent chance of winning, according to Paddy Power oddsmakers.
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Donald Trump’s 2024 Ambitions
Unlike recent defeated presidents, Mr Trump has not left politics quietly.
He appears to still harbour interest in returning to the White House in 2024 – and the midterms could strengthen his hand or dash his hopes. While he’s not on the ballot, dozens of his chosen candidates are running in high-profile races across the US.
The former president was able to elevate some Senate candidates, like former football player Herschel Walker in Georgia, television doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and populist author JD Vance in Ohio, over more traditional Republican politicians, despite the objections of elder Republican leaders.
If they win, it could prove that his political instincts are sharp – and his brand of conservative politics has national appeal. But if Republicans fall short in Congress, and it’s because of the failure Mr Trump’s unconventional handpicked candidates, the former president could shoulder the lion’s share of the blame.
Such an outcome would bolster the hopes of Mr Trump’s presidential rivals within the party. Both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Texas Governor Greg Abbott are up for re-election in November, and could use the results as a springboard for their own campaign to win the Republican nomination in 2024.
What If Bidens Net Approval Drops Below
Net approval rating is the percentage of people who think the president is doing a good job, minus the percentage who think hes doing a bad job. Currently, he polls at an average of -16. If he were to fall to -35 it would put him in historically low levels Donald Trump, even in the bleak last days of his presidency, never dropped below about -19. If he does get that unpopular he will be one of the least popular presidents of the last 15-ish.
That would pretty clearly be bad news for any president, but its unlikely because of the increased polarisation of US politics. Net approval ratings seem much more constrained than they used to be, says one forecaster, so dipping that low would mean the Democrats really aren’t happy. Another agrees: I think it’s unlikely to see -35 with American political polarisation.
If it does happen, it would mean he was much less likely to run, and if he ran, to win. He still might be able to beat Trump, writes one, but it would be VERY hard to beat DeSantis. At this point he becomes a lot less likely to try again, says another.
Of course, as previously noted, July 2023 is a long way from the election. I don’t think Biden’s negative approval before July 2023 is an important indicator, says one cautious forecaster.
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Us Midterm Elections: Why Are They So Important
The US elections on 8 November will have an enormous impact on the direction of the nation, as well as the fate of the person and the party in power in the White House.
Joe Biden is not on the ballot – the midterms decide who controls Congress as well as state legislatures and governor’s offices. But the outcome will influence the playing field for the 2024 presidential campaign, and especially the odds of Donald Trump running again.
Here are five reasons why these elections are so important:
What If Hunter Biden Is Sentenced To Prison Before The 2024 Election
Hunter, Joe Bidens second son, has faced several scandals, including drug problems and allegations of corruption, and a potential felony regarding a firearms purchase. Since December 2020 his tax affairs have been under federal criminal investigation. If he were to be convicted and sentenced to prison, several forecasters felt that this would be extremely bad for his fathers reelection chances.
Imprisonment would make it clear to both Democrats and swing voters that this story was not just a result of a smear campaign, wrote one. The story has been pretty widely suppressed, but a conviction cant be ignored and would presumably tank Joe Biden’s electability he certainly couldn’t run on ‘no malarkey’ again.
I think this would decrease Joe Biden’s chances of running again in order to prevent his son’s situation from hurting the Democrats’ chance of keeping the White House, said another. And if Biden did still decide to run, I think it would be very unlikely that he’d win the election.
It would also give Biden an excuse, should he want one, to drop out: An indictment, prosecution, and conviction could give President Biden the justification to bow out of the race for personal family issues.
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Rational Voters Who Chose Self
Electoral coalitions in the United States are composed of diverse groups. It is dangerous to lose sight of this in the ominous pictures of those who waved Trump flags and wore MAGA hats as they stormed the Capitol.
These Trump voters reflect what the historian Richard Hofstadter described as the paranoid style of American politics. They have an apocalyptic view of history, believe in alternative facts and traffic in conspiracy theories. They now compose the activist base of the Republican Party, are embedded within local and state Republican party committees, and can make GOP officials quiver.
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But there are other parts of the Trump coalition who rationally voted their self-interest. These pocketbook Trump voters cant be dismissed as delusive authoritarians. They are voters who will reward whoever rewards them. They are transactional, not paranoid, open to inducements that politicians normally offer.
Wisely, Biden has resisted the temptation to other the Trump voter he continually promises to be the president of those who did and did not vote for him because he knows that electoral coalitions are diverse, and that Trump World includes both paranoid and pocketbook voters.
Alan Draper is the Michael W. Ranger and Virginia R. Ranger Professor of Government at St. Lawrence University in Canton, New York.
Us Election Results: Five Reasons Biden Won
After nearly 50 years in public office, and a lifetime of presidential ambitions, Joe Biden has captured the White House.
It was not the campaign anyone predicted. It took place amidst a once-in-a-century pandemic and unprecedented social unrest. He was running against an unconventional, precedent-defying incumbent. But in his third try for the presidency, Biden and his team found a way to navigate the political obstacles and claim a victory that, while narrow in the electoral college tally, is projected to surpass Trump’s overall national total by millions of votes.
These are the five reasons the son of a car salesman from Delaware finally won the presidency.
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