Latino Voters: Bidens Better
Bidens worsened performance among Latino voters as compared to past Democratic nominees has been much discussed since the election, and Catalist puts some numbers on just what happened there the group estimates that Hillary Clinton won 71 percent of Latino voters in 2016, but Biden won 63 percent in 2020. This 8-point drop is the most dramatic shift in a four-year period among the major racial or ethnic groups seen in Catalists data.
This comes in the context of a massive increase in Latino turnout overall while turnout was up across the board, it was particularly up among Latino voters, in whats just an incredible increase in a four-year period.
Turnout Increase by Race, 2016-2020
This turnout increase meant the Latino share of the electorate continued its trend of growth Latino voters were 7 percent of the electorate in 2012, 9 percent in 2016, and 10 percent in 2020.
The turnout surge also raises a question did Trump improve because previously voting Latinos switched from backing Democrats to backing Republicans, or were his gains mainly among new voters? Catalist doesnt provide a definitive answer, but the authors say, we see suggestive evidence that both of these factors played some role.
Our Ruling: Partly False
The claim in the post is rated PARTLY FALSE. The tweet that appears in viral Facebook posts cites correct vote totals for Trump and Biden . But it falsely reports the number of registered voters. More than 159 million registered voters cast ballots in the general election, out of 239 million eligible voters. So it is completely possible that Trump and Biden would post that many total votes.
The 2020 Election By The Numbers
Its almost over. Yesterday Electoral College electors convened virtually or in person in state capitals across the country to cast their votes. The result was what everyone expected, the election of Joe Biden as president of the United States. With the election now essentially settledRepublican lawmakers may make one last doomed attempt to reverse the results when Congress meets on January 6 to confirm the Electoral College voteheres one last review of how the vote went.
The Electoral College
In 2016, seven electors declined to vote for the candidate they were pledged to. That was the highest number of faithless electors ever, with the exception of the election of 1872. That year sixty-three electors broke their pledge. They had a good reason to do so, however. They were pledged to Democratic candidate Horace Greeleyhe of Go West fame. Greeley died three weeks after losing to Ulysses S. Grant and before the Electoral College met. His pledged electors were understandably reluctant to vote for a dead man. Three electors, however, did cast their votes for Greeley.
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Most Of America Is Purple
While a map with counties colored either red or blue can clearly show which candidate won each county, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Many counties voted overwhelmingly for Biden or for President Donald Trump, but much of America fell somewhere in the middle. Fewer than 600 out of about 3,000 counties, not including Alaska, voted over 80% for either candidate.
Tap or hover over each county to explore the map.
Fact Check: Clarifying The Comparison Between Popular Vote And Counties Won In The 2020 Election
9 Min Read
Posts circulating on social media point to the number of counties won and number of votes cast for President Donald Trump and President-elect Joe Biden in the Nov. 3 U.S. election, suggesting that disparities in those numbers are evidence of fraud or election irregularity. This is misleading. Given counties vary widely in population size, so does the number of votes cast per county.
Examples are visible here , here . Most iterations include a screenshot of a tweet by conservative activist Charlie Kirk dated Dec. 20, 2020 here , which has been retweeted over 48,400 times as of the publishing of this fact check .
The post reads: Barack Obama: 69,000,000 votes 873 counties. Donald Trump: 75,000,000 votes 2,497 counties. Joe Biden: 81,000,000 votes 477 counties …And were not allowed to question his victory.
Some posts with this claim referring to voter fraud or election irregularities read: Its a mathematical impossibility!!!! Let me make it even more plain. THERE ARE NOT 81 MILLION PEOPLE IN THOSE 477 COUNTIES!!! , Wake up people! This is the integrity of our United States elections. Its not about Democrat or Republican. Its about Americans future and current Corruption!!! and You dont have to be good at math to see the fraud.
In 2008, Obama did obtain 69,498,516 votes, 52.93% of the popular vote , while only winning 28% of the counties .
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Trumps Pitch To Black Voters Was Largely About Financial Security And Prosperity
Ationza Smith, a Biden supporter and co-founder of the activist group Revolutionaries Demanding Justice, told me that in her experience, Black Trump supporters like how hes improved employment … theyre kind of basically looking at things on a business level and not necessarily an ethics level.
And that has been the case with a number of prominent Black Trump supporters.
Rapper 50 Cent, who has vacillated in his support of Trump, noted he was a fan of the presidents tax policies, criticizing Bidens tax plan which would raise taxes on those making more than $400,000 per year and , Yeah, i dont want to be 20cent.
But while 50 Cent has a fortune valued at $110 million, the median wealth and income for a Black family in 2019 was just $24,100 and $46,073, respectively.
50 Cent would be hurt by Bidens tax plan, which stands little chance of passing if Republicans hold the Senate most Black Americans would not. But there is more to Trumps economic pitch than lower taxes. DAngelo Crosby, an undecided voter who ultimately went for Biden, noted his father mentioned he had never made so much money as he had during the past four years, and that Black Trump supporters hed spoken with had a similar message.
Crosby said people have told him, It was like, Well, I got a higher pay rate, the highest Ive ever been paid before. So I definitely think I want to stick with this president, because my moneys looking a little better.
Election Sees Record High Turnout With At Least 1598 Million Votes Projected
- At least 159.8 million Americans voted in the 2020 presidential election, according to NBC News projections Wednesday morning.
- The projected vote total marks a record high number of ballots cast in a presidential election and the highest voter turnout rate among eligible citizens since 1900.
- The record voter turnout in 2020 was buoyed by more than 100 million ballots cast during the early voting period.
At least 159.8 million Americans voted in the 2020 presidential election, according to NBC News projections Wednesday morning.
The projected vote total marks a record high number of ballots cast in a presidential election and the highest voter turnout rate among eligible citizens since 1900.
With 86% of the expected vote tallied as of 9 a.m. ET, NBC News projects that Democratic candidate Joe Biden received more than 68.6 million votes, President Donald Trump received more than 65.9 million votes and other candidates received more than 2.1 million votes. At least 23 million votes have yet to be tallied, NBC News estimates.
The projected 159.8 million cast ballots represent the highest number of voters in a U.S. presidential election in history. In 2016, the total stood just above 136.6 million votes.
Around 239.2 million Americans were eligible to vote in 2020, according to the U.S. Elections Project. NBC News’ projected 159.8 million ballots cast in 2020 would constitute about a 66.8% voter turnout rate among eligible citizens the highest since 1900.
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A Reflection On Fred Siegel
Trump continues to contest the election, but it appears American democracy has survived. Biden won the popular vote by 7 million . Yet we are left with the reality that nearly half of voting Americans backed Trump. In my last post, I tried to explain the commitment of Trumps diehard followers. But clearly, not all of those 74 million supporters are fanatics. I have a friend who votes strictly from his wallet, and tax breaks motivated his vote and likely millions more. But who else?
Recently the Wall Street Journal posted a story titled, An Ex-Liberal Reluctantly Supports Trump. The ex-liberal is Fred Siegel, an emeritus Professor of History at the Cooper Union in NYC. I worked with Fred for 10 years at the Cooper Union. It came as a big surprise to me he was an ex-liberal. I was a newbie adjunct, and he was a tenured professor. I found him intimidating. I conceived him as a bulldog intellectual. Smart, witty, gruff, with a good sense of humor. I chided him that his lunch of Fritos and a can of Coke was a recipe for disaster. I also knew him as a big supporter of Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
I have two clear remembrances of Fred. When President Clinton spoke at the Cooper Union in 1993, Fred rushed to the stage as the speech ended to shake his hand. I thought it was odd given his political positions. But apparently, he voted for Clinton. A few years later the only time I publicly disagreed with him was over Clintons impeachment. He was for it, I wasnt.
White People Have Always Been The Key To Donald Trumps Success
Despite his gains among voters of color, Trumps base has always been white people. That didnt change in 2020, when a majority of white voters backed him. And since white voters comprise the majority of the electorate 65 percent according to Edison Research they make up by far the largest bloc to support him. Black and Latinx voters, meanwhile, make up 12 and 13 percent, respectively.
Much attention has been paid to a tide shift among white people in recent months. It was just this summer that many white people were said to be experiencing a great awakening, a moment when anti-racism books were flying off the shelves and participants pledged to do better by learning about white supremacy and how to dismantle it.
White voters seem even more likely to vote for Trump in 2020 than in 2016, in large numbers in the majority.
A big part of progressives mission this year was getting more white people to vote against Trump. But the reality is grim: The presidential race was much closer than predicted, and thats after Trumps zero-tolerance family separation policy, after the police killings of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor that Trump did not denounce, after Covid-19 ravaged the country, and after Trumps impeachment. There has been no widespread rejection of Trump or white supremacy among white Trump supporters or even former supporters.
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It’s Like Where Do We Go
These swing voters readily say that their frustrations with both a Republican Party in Trump’s grasp and with Biden leave them feeling a bit lost politically.
Georgia resident Xaveria asked a simple question: “It’s like, where do we go?”
These voter discussions were part of a series of focus groups that have been organized by longtime political strategist Sarah Longwell, the publisher of The Bulwark website who herself is a Republican who’s worked to defeat Trump.
She hears voters like Xaveria and Christine and says they reject Trump and GOP candidates trying to be “Trumpy” themselves. She says such voters are open to voting for Democrats, but the party also needs to nominate more moderate candidates to make these voters feel welcome there.
These moderate-to-conservative voters “are very clear that they feel politically unmoored, politically homeless,” Longwell said in an interview.
“I really view these voters as up for grabs in 2022 and 2024,” she said. But Longwell says it matters who the candidates are and how the parties see themselves.
And Longwell says it makes such voters worth watching. It also makes them potentially pivotal. “Right now, people who are willing to change their vote from one party to another really hold the keys to political power,” she said.
How Are The Results Reported
The election results on this page are reported by the Associated Press . AP call the winner in a state when they determine that the trailing candidate has no path to victory. This can happen before 100% of votes in a state have been counted.
Estimates for the total vote in each state are also provided by AP. The numbers update throughout election night, as more data on voter turnout becomes available.
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How Biden Won: Ramping Up The Base And Expanding Margins In The Suburbs
The other reason, though, is Trump, who remains one of the most polarizing figures in American political history. Lots of people turned out for and against him.
Democrats have now won the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. A Republican hasn’t won it since George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004.
And yet, Democrats have only won the presidency in five of those elections because of the Electoral College. Democrats are concentrated on the coasts and in cities, making it harder to win the White House than their popular vote margins might suggest.
In fact, in this election, Biden won the national popular vote by some 6 million votes so far, more than double Hillary Clinton’s margin over Trump four years ago. But just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College.
Opinion: Lets Take A Closer Look At Trumps Supposedly Intimidating 74 Million Vote Total
In the dark and cavernous mind of President Trump, Joe Bidens vote count in last months election is, on its face, evidence of mail-in fraud. Eighty million votes! How is that even possible?
What Trump doesnt question, of course, is the significance of his own vote total, which was north of 74 million higher than that of any president before him. And neither does anyone else.
Its the most important number from the 2020 election, and it cries out for some context.
This is about more than parsing electoral statistics. Its about what we take away from Trumps muscular showing and how thats already affecting our politics.
Liberals have been obsessing on this 74 million vote number far more than they have on Bidens historic showing since the election. To them, its shocking evidence that Trumpism only grew in popularity over the four years in which Trump himself was conducting a national seminar in mismanagement and bigotry.
If Trump could earn more votes than any sitting president ever, the thinking goes, then clearly his movement is here to stay, and he could even get himself reelected in 2024.
Meanwhile, Republicans in Washington are trembling like a bunch of chihuahuas in the face of Trumps awesome power. According to The Posts Paul Kane and Scott Clement, only 27 Congressional Republicans will even admit that Trump lost.
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We just dont yet know what the new normal is.
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