What Democrat Beats That Guy: Top Dems Flinch From Rubio Challenge
Florida Democrats cant stand Marco Rubio. But, at the moment, they dont have much confidence they can knock him off in 2022.
01/28/2021 04:30 AM EST
MIAMI Few Republicans are more loathed by Democrats than Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Many have never looked at him the same since, after helping to draft the 2013 bipartisan immigration bill, he backed away under conservative pressure. They mock him as an opportunist or a Donald Trump sycophant.
With an approval rating under 50 percent, Rubio would seem ripe for a takedown in next years election. But right now, Florida Democrats dont have much confidence they can topple him.
The states top Democratic prospects are instead jockeying to run for governor against Rubios fellow Republican, Ron DeSantis. And the architecture of Trumps Florida victory in November revealed just how difficult it will be to knock off the two-term senator in a general election in the giant, expensive and red-leaning state.
For a variety of reasons, Rubio will be tough to beat whether because it is an off-year election, his Miami roots or his profile thats hardly a surprise to anyone and I believe that is why there is an absence of big names lining up early, said Steve Vancore, a veteran Democratic pollster and strategist.
By KELLY HOOPER
Florida is now a Republican state, said Chheda.
Former Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson has begun making calls to gauge interest in a 2022 Senate run. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo
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Opinionkamala Harris’ Candidacy Requires A Nuanced Debate About Her Record Race And Gender Is The Left Ready
When it comes to Bidens likability, he soars among almost every demographic and is more favorable than Donald Trump . However, Biden also sits atop all the potential 2020 candidates as the only candidate with a favorability over 50 percent, according to late December Quinnipiac polling.
Biden has a track record of working across the aisle to get things done. Biden was the guy who negotiated the fiscal cliff deal with Senator Mitch McConnell as well as a major part of the 2010 deal that extended the Bush tax cuts, because he doesnt view Republicans as enemies, he knows he needs to work with them in order to get things done. This is exactly the right tone that needs to be set on the campaign trail especially as Republican voters in general and Trump supporters in particular feel vilified by the media.
Just this week, he responded to criticism of himself in the New York Times for being bipartisan saying, I read in the New York Times today that one of my problems if I were to run for president, I like Republicans. OK, well bless me father for I have sinned.
See That’s The Thing About Copy/paste Jobs Other People Can Track Them Down If Provoked
Last edited Tue Aug 3, 2021, 12:57 AM – Edit history
Â and critique your framing. As it happens, despite your and the LATÂs interest in the subject, Kamala Harris is not actually running for President. In addition the Âregistered votersÂ poll cited does not discriminate between Dems and GOP, Right or Left, Independent and so forth. There is a chunk of voters who would not vote for a Black/Mixed-Race/Female/Democrat if she were the last candidate on the face of the Earth. Around here we call them MAGAts. They also will not vote for a White Male Democrat Â but at least they wonÂt threaten to rape and murder him. The rest of the voters are Democrats and persuadable Independents. We can work with them when the time comes.As for her position as VP, you make it sound like sheÂs a drag on the ticket. Yet Joe Biden won handily Â in part because of her positive pull on the Democratic base. But I note your concern.
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Biden Has The Best Shot At Carrying The Senate
Any Democrat who could beat Trump would only have a shot at a transformative presidency if he or she also took the Senate. Right now, it looks bleak for Democrats.
McConnell controls the Senate by three votes . And in 2020, there is no Republican running in a state that Clinton carried by 5 points or more. So while Democrats defend seats in 12 states where theyre up for reelection, a few of them tough races, theyll also have to flip seats in at least three competitive races to take back control of Congress.
Most Democrats believe their best bets for flips are in Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and Maine. Biden has earned about a dozen endorsements across these states, including from Napolitano, the only Democrat to be elected governor in the state since 1982.
Vulnerable Democrats defending seats include Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan, a state where Biden has consistently polled above Trump by a higher margin than any other candidate. Hes earned some half a dozen endorsements from sitting lawmakers there, too.
Similarly, hes picked up strong support in Alabama.
Even if you look at an example like the state of Alabama where theres a clear dichotomy between urban-exurban and rural, hes uniquely positioned not to move just urban voters, said Democratic Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin, who has endorsed Biden. When you think about all parts of the state, hes actually able to excite and motivate those same Alabamians who may be white or rural.
Who Has The Best Shot At Beating Trump Who Knows
The difficult choice facing Democratic primary voters looks even more inscrutable after last weeks first round of party presidential debates.
Nothing matters more to Democratic voters than picking a nominee with the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, who many party activists consider an existential threat to their values and priorities. But the question of which Democrat is most electable against Trump looks murkier and more contested than ever after last weeks debates.
In the races early stages, the electability argument mostly benefited former Vice President Joe Biden, polls found. But he faced new doubts after his wobbly performance in last weeks second night of the debates, and in a new CNN poll conducted after the debates, his support had dropped 10 percentage points from the last survey, in May.
Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts gained new fans with their forceful debate performances, and surged to second and third place behind Biden in the new CNN survey, released Monday. But they also immediately faced questions about whether their embrace of unabashedly liberal positions during the sessions in particular, banning private health insurance, though Harris, as shes done before, rhetorically obscured her position in the aftermath had made them less competitive in a general election.
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The Big Question For Michigan Democrats: Is Biden Or Sanders More Likely To Beat Trump
Joe Biden, left, and Bernie Sanders are set for a competitive Democratic presidential primary race in Michigan on March 10, 2020.
Tom Wentz and Troy Zukowski-Serlin are Michigan residents passionate about wanting President Trump voted out of office.
But Wentz and Zukowski-Serlin have different theories on how to make that happen.
Wentz, a 38-year-old Hillsdale resident, thinks the Democrats need Bernie Sanders as their candidate. Only Sanders can channel the passion and populist fervor that got Trump elected in 2016, he says.
If its not Bernie, Trump wins. I strongly believe that, Wentz said. Sanders brings out voters who otherwise dont give a s***.
Wentz said hed have a hard time voting for Joe Biden, Sanders main competitor for the Democratic nomination.
As an establishment candidate, Biden is “the complete opposite of Bernie, Wentz said. I thought we wanted to vote for change.
Zukowski-Serlin, a 56-year-old Portage resident, has the opposite view.
In a country exhausted by the Trump presidency, he sees Biden as an experienced, well-respected leader who can beat Trump in November by promising a return to normalcy and stability.
I think hes a good man, Zukowski-Serlin said about Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist. But his policies are too far out of the mainstream.
As Michigan Democrats weigh their options for the states presidential primary on Tuesday, its largely come down to Sanders vs. Biden.
Read more on MLive:
Why The Electability Discussion Was Incoherent
So, for instance, moderate candidates like Delaney and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock argued that Sanders and Warrens support of Medicare-for-all and decriminalizing border crossing risked alienating swing voters and ensuring Trumps reelection that they were wrong on the politics.
But they also argued that those positions were simply wrong on the merits. Delaney insisted that if all hospital bills were paid at Medicare rates, then many hospitals in this country would close. Bullock said that if the government provided health care to unauthorized immigrants, well have multiples of the thousands of people showing up at the border right now. Bullock added that, no, we dont have to sacrifice our values to actually win.
Meanwhile, Warren and Sanders said, naturally, that their proposals were both right on the merits and right on the politics. Democrats win when we figure out what is right and we get out there and fight for it, Warren insisted. I am not afraid, and for Democrats to win, you cant be afraid either.
The concept that there might be some policies that are both a good idea and bad for electability-related reasons was only actually broached by the non-politician on stage, Marianne Williamson.
Regarding Medicare-for-all, Williamson said, Im normally way over there with Bernie and Elizabeth. But, she added, I do have concern about what the Republicans would say. And thats not just a Republican talking point.
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Democrats View Sanders As Having Best Shot To Defeat Trump: Poll
A plurality of Democrats believe that Sen. Bernie SandersDonald TrumpThree men indicted for fraud in .5 million scam PAC schemeJudge refuses Trump request to delay release of Jan. 6 docs amid appealMORE in November, according to a new national poll.
The latest Morning Consult survey, which was conducted after Sanderss dominant victory in the Nevada caucuses, found 33 percent of Democrats view Sanders as the best candidate they could put up in a head-to-head match-up against Trump.
Twenty-three percent of polled Democrats said former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg would do best against Trump, and 18 percent said former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenJudge refuses Trump request to delay release of Jan. 6 docs amid appealOn The Money Biden’s battle with inflationOvernight Defense & National Security Concerns over Russia growMORE.
The new poll comes amid warnings from some establishment Democrats that Sanders will lead the party to a historic defeat if he is the nominee.
However, most national polls find Sanders leading Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up.
The Morning Consult poll also found Sanders overtaking Biden among black voters nationally for the first time. One-third of black Democratic voters said they support Sanders, compared with 29 percent for Biden.
Thats within the polls margin of error, but is a major development ahead of the South Carolina primary, where more than half of the electorate is black.
Democratic Voters Confident That Biden And Sanders Can Defeat Trump Less Certain About Other Candidates’ Chances
Democrats are most confident that former Vice President Joe BidenDonald TrumpThree men indicted for fraud in .5 million scam PAC schemeJudge refuses Trump request to delay release of Jan. 6 docs amid appealMORE in a general election, according to a new Hill-HarrisX poll.
In the survey, 75 percent of Democratic respondents said that they believed that Biden had a strong or some chance of beating Trump in the general election next year, while 64 percent said the same of Sanders.
None of the other potential and declared Democratic candidates were rated by more than half of the party’s voters as having at least some chance of defeating Trump.
Forty-five percent of Democrats in the survey said that they believed former Rep. Beto O’RourkeKamala HarrisHarris, Macron unveil new initiatives on space, cybersecurity after meetingTrump slams Cheney after New Hampshire remarksAt 28 percent approval, say goodbye to Kamala Harris being Plan B to an aging BidenMORE .
Forty-two percent of Democrats said that Sen. Elizabeth WarrenAndrew YangAt 28 percent approval, say goodbye to Kamala Harris being Plan B to an aging BidenAdams wins New York City mayor’s raceBill Maher pushes back on criticism of Chappelle: ‘What the f— was that reaction?’ MORE had at least some chance.
“This time around, especially after 2016 for Democrats, the biggest driver for popularity is can you beat Donald Trump,” she said Tuesday on “What America’s Thinking.”
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Poll: Half Of Republicans Right
Fifty percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents think the party has a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if former President Donald Trump is the partys nominee, according to a poll released earlier this week.
The NPR/PBS NewsHour/ Marist National Poll, which was conducted before the Virginia election on Tuesday, found that 35% of respondents want someone other than Trump, while 14% said they didnt know.
Meanwhile, more than 40% of Democrats think the party might just have a better chance to win the White House in 2024 if President Joe Biden isnt on the ballot, said the poll.
Forty-four percent of Democrats and independents said they lean Democratic prefer another candidate to run, while 36% said they want Biden to run again. Twenty percent werent sure.
The poll also found that just 44% of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing, while 49% disapprove.
Biden said in Rome on Sunday that hes not concerned about his flagging numbers. the way, look, the polls are going to go up and down, and up and down. They were higher early. Then they got medium. Then back up and now theyre low, he told reporters.
at every other president. The same thing has happened, but thats not why I ran. I didnt run to determine how well Im going to do in the polls, he said.
The survey also found that Americans are losing faith in the electoral process.
Other findings include:
Cracks In The Biden Foundation
So far, polling shows that Biden has benefited the most from the focus on electability. In a national mid-June Monmouth University poll, Biden significantly led the field when likely Democratic primary voters were asked to rank each candidates chance, on a 1-10 scale, of beating Trump. Fifty-nine percent of Democratic voters ranked Bidens chance of beating Trump in the three highest categories on that scale .
No one else finished that close: 39% ranked Sanders in the top three categories, 32% Warren, 24% Harris and just 17% South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. As usual in this years polls of Democratic voters, Bidens advantage on electability in that survey was especially pronounced with older voters.
But in last weeks debate Biden delivered a performance almost universally regarded as unsteady, when he was challenged most forcefully by Harris on his record on school busing during the 1970s but also by Sen. Michael Bennet on the deal he cut in 2012 with Republican Mitch McConnell during the fiscal cliff triggered by the expiration of the tax cuts that passed under President George W. Bush.
Assuming Biden is able to get his act together, he has a real base , I believe, grounded in historical dynamics that make it very hard for Harris to make further gains, Greenberg said. At some point Biden is going to push back, maybe using the President , by saying Im carrying on his legacy.
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