Regrets: Trump Would Beat Biden Today More Women And Blacks Support
A slew of new polls have come out this week showing the shrinking support for and approval of President Joe Biden, his average now below 50%.
But today, Rasmussen Reports is issuing the capper, telling Secrets that in an election do-over, Biden would lose to former President Donald Trump.
The details of the survey, which samples more Democrats than Republicans, showed that Trump would win more women and blacks than he did in 2020 when he lost to Biden, 46.8%-51.3%.
A sizable 14% would choose some other candidate, though none were named.
The survey comes at a key point in Bidens presidency. He is now under fire for bungling Americas withdrawal from Afghanistan, increasing inflation, and spiraling crime.
Several other surveys out this week have shown his approval rating underwater, a place Trump floated for much of his presidency.
Today, Axios headlined, Biden’s average approval rating drops below 50% for first time. It cited poll trackers from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics.
The site added, This marks a precipitous decline from the FiveThirtyEight peak of 55.1% in March and the RCP peak of 55.7% in April.
Despite showing Trump edging Biden in an election today, most told Rasmussen that they do not regret their 2020 vote. Some 89% said so, led by 95% of Republicans. For Democrats, it was less, 87%.
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Us Election 2020 Polls: Who Is Ahead
Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.
The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.
As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.
We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.
The States Trump Must Defend
Beyond the core big six swing states and the two weird congressional districts, each candidate is trying to go on offense in a set of states where they suspect their opponent is favored but hope for an upset.
For Biden, the states hes trying to pluck out of Trumps hands are the traditional swing states of Ohio and Iowa, and the recently Republican-leaning states of Georgia and Texas.
We can think of this group as two pairs of states: two Biden is trying to win back, and two that are relatively new territory for Democrats to be contesting.
- Ohio and Iowa went for Obama twice, and trended heavily toward Republicans in 2016 . Biden hopes to win back, and poll averages suggest he has a decent shot of it hes currently abouttied in Ohio and alsoin in Iowa.
- Texas and Georgia havent voted for Democratic presidential candidates in decades but Democrats margins of defeat there have recently shrunk . Currently, polling averages show Biden narrowlyahead in Georgia and narrowlytrailing in Texas.
Its generally believed that these states are unlikely to be decisive, since if Biden wins one of these states, hes probably won enough states from the big six as well.
But weird things can happen. Here, for instance, is an map where Trump holds strong in the Upper Midwest and Rust Belt , and wins Florida and North Carolina but Biden wins the election, because surprisingly high turnout among Mexican American voters delivers him narrow victories in Arizona and Texas.
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Why The ‘stunning’ Poll Being Pushed By Republicans Isn’t That Stunning
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
“Stunning Poll Reveals Trump Would Win Election Held Today”
“First, there are specific state and federal laws that restrict, and even prohibit, certain kinds of automatic calling. For example, it is illegal to call mobile phone numbers using automated dialing methods. This could mean that the growing number of Americans who are only reachable by their mobile phone will not be represented in the sample unless they are dialed manually.“In comparison with surveys that use a live interviewer, response rates are likely to be much lower for automated surveys. Further, even when they start answering questions using this methodology, respondents are much more likely to break off and not complete the interview. Thus, error due to nonresponse may affect the accuracy of the poll. It is also difficult to employ methods to randomly select a respondent within the household without the help of a live interviewer.”
President Donald Trump Defeats Joe Biden In Texas
The Republican incumbent was poised to win Texas 38 electoral votes after an unexpectedly tight statewide race for the White House.
, our daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news. And bookmark our Texas election results page here.
President Donald Trump carried Texas on Tuesday as national results continue to show him and former Vice President Joe Biden in a neck-and-neck race.
The Republican incumbent was poised to win Texas 38 electoral votes 52% to 46.6%, based on returns from early voting, Decision Desk HQ data showed. Early returns dont include votes cast on Election Day. Polls have shown that Republicans are more likely to vote in person on Election Day than Democrats.
Trumps margin over Biden marks the second-closest Texas race for the White House of the last quarter century. In 1996, GOP nominee Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by 5 points. Trump prevailed over Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 points in 2016.
While Biden performed well in the states metropolitan regions, he struggled to gain steam among Hispanic and Latino voters in the Rio Grande Valley and to overcome Trumps strength in the rural areas of the state.
Earlier Tuesday, Trump had projected a landslide victory in the Lone Star State. A lot of people talked about Texas, he said. We will have a tremendous victory there.
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Us Election: How The Trump
From ballot casting to legal wrangling, we followed the race live
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden has secured enough Electoral College votes to unseat President Donald Trump. Follow the transfer of power with us on our transition live blog.
Trump has rejected Biden’s win and taken the issue to court. But the his administration has also given the green light for the transition to proceed — granting the incoming team access to government buildings and millions of dollars in funds.
For all our coverage of the election, visit our U.S. Elections 2020 page.
For more on the U.S. election — and the Asian angle — read our in-depth coverage:
Tuesday, Nov. 24
2:00 a.m. Taiwan says it has had good communication with Biden’s team, Reuters reports, as the self-ruled democracy claimed by China prepares for life without the enthusiastic backing of the Trump administration.
“The foreign ministry and our representative office in the United States have continued to maintain smooth communication and have good interactions with the Biden team via various appropriate means,” said Joanne Ou, a ministry spokeswoman.
“At the same time, we have also conveyed Taiwan’s sincere gratitude to the current Trump administration. The current Taiwan-U.S. relationship is at its best in history. We sincerely thank you.”
He says his side is “moving full speed ahead” with its legal challenges and “will never concede to fake ballots.”
Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
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How Biden Could Win
At this point, Bidens paths to victory are numerous, while Trumps are evaporating. Trump would need to carry 4 of the last 5 key states to win, with Pennsylvania needing to be one of them, but hes ahead only in North Carolina.
Biden, meanwhile, could win just by carrying Pennsylvania or by carrying only Arizona and Nevada. He could also get to 269 votes enough for a tie by winning only Georgia, with any other state giving him the victory.
The current counts suggest hes likely to win more than that, but lets run through each scenario.
One state that could very well hold the keys to the White House for Biden on the hours to come is Pennsylvania. Biden now leads there by 0.1 percent, with most of the remaining votes in pro-Biden areas. Its 20 electoral votes would mean game over. Heres what it would look like if Biden pulled the sweep of the three Midwestern/Rust Belt states that went for Trump by less than a percentage point in 2016, by adding Pennsylvania to Michigan and Wisconsin:
Were Biden to somehow lose Pennsylvania, he would needs some combination of 2 of the 4 remaining uncalled states: Arizona , Georgia , Nevada and North Carolina .
The easiest of those could be getting the two Western states, which would provide exactly 17 votes and get him to 270. Biden is leading by less two percentage points in Arizona and by about one in Nevada, where much of the uncounted vote is mail ballots in Las Vegas-based Clark County.
Great Recession Recovery Effort Shaped A Key Part Of Biden’s Record
Biden ran for president in 1988 and 2008. Both times were considered flops. He withdrew from the 1988 campaign before the Iowa caucuses in part because of a plagiarism scandal. In 2008, Biden carved out a niche during the debates as a foreign policy expert but finished well behind fellow Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in Iowa, and quickly dropped out.
But Biden had made an impression on Obama during those debates. That summer, looking to compensate for his lack of foreign policy experience and his relative newness to Washington and also looking to appeal to white voters who may have been skeptical of the first Black major-party presidential nominee Obama tapped Biden as his running mate.
Biden headed several key policy efforts for the Obama administration, including the 2009 stimulus package that’s credited with helping pull the economy out of a spiral toward a depression. Biden helped set the administration’s foreign policy agenda and often acted as the more aloof Obama’s emissary to Republican congressional leaders like Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell. Biden and the Senate Republican leader crafted several budget compromises in the later years of the Obama administration.
Vice President Biden joins President Barack Obama as he speaks about a newly created working families task force just 10 days after they were inaugurated in 2009.hide caption
A dramatic turn in South Carolina
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Taking on Trump
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The Two Swing Congressional Districts: Me
Another quirk in the Electoral College system is that just two small states Maine and Nebraska have made the unusual decision to allot some of their electoral votes to the winners in each congressional district in the state, rather than giving them all to the statewide winner as the other 48 states do.
Practically, one of Maines two districts is safe for Democrats, and two of Nebraskas three districts are safe for Republicans. But the remaining district in each state Maines Second District and Nebraskas Second District is up for grabs.
With just one electoral vote at stake for each, theyll only actually matter in the closest of races. But if such a close contest transpires, theyll be absolutely crucial. For instance, the 269-269 tie map above would flip to Biden if he was able to win Nebraskas Second District.
Maines Second is rural, and white voters lacking college degrees make up a large share of the electorate. Its result in presidential years had always been the same as Maines statewide result until 2016, when Trump won it by the sizable margin of 10 points . Recent polls have showed Biden with a narrow lead there this year.
Heres another scenario where these two congressional districts could decide the president if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin, with the two key congressional districts undecided.
Who Would Win A Fight Between Donald Trump And Joe Biden
Even for someone as famously uninhibited and unapologetically profane as Vice President Joe Biden, America’s coolest uncle has been one of Donald Trump’s harshest critics this election cycle. After Trump wondered aloud in his typically evil “just-asking-questions” way whether the election had already been “rigged” for Hillary Clinton, Biden’s earnest suggestion that Trump may be “too stupid” to know the damage he’s doing generated both delighted laughter from the crowd and also this brilliant chyron.
Last week, when the noted Parks and Recreation star was asked if he wished he had the chance to debate Trump, Biden, probably after taking a long drag of a cigarette and sneering, let loose with this:
No, I wish we were in high school, and I could take him behind thegym. That’s what I wish.
You’ll never believe this, but today Donald Trump fired back:
Did you see where Biden wants to take me to the back of the barn? I’dlove that! I’d love that! Mr. Tough Guy! You know he’s Mr. Tough Guy!You know when he’s Mr. Tough Guy? When he’s standing behind amicrophone by himself! He wants to bring me to the back of the barn!Oh, some things in life you could really love doing!
Note that these two gentlemen were so excited to take each other on that they mixed up the agreed-upon venue! But no matter. Let’s break down who would take this hypothetical behind-the-gym-and/or-the-barn matchup.
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How Trump Or Biden Could Win Mapped
This story was featured in Drop Me The Link, our one-story election newsletter.
Its the Friday after Election Day, and Joe Bidens path to victory is looking prohibitive for President Trump.
So where do things go from here? This post is our updating look at the paths to victory that remain for Trump and Biden. We will adjust these maps based on projected and likely results to show you the most likely remaining avenues.
So bookmark this page and refresh often.
The big news Friday morning was the Biden edged ahead in two key, outstanding states: Georgia and Pennsylvania. This means he now leads in 4 of the 5 key states that remain uncalled, along with Arizona and Nevada. Trump retains a lead only in North Carolina.