‘treating This Like A Game’: Psaki Blasts Gop As Debt Ceiling Deadline Nears
Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 34%, while his disapproval is at 61%. The same pollster put Trump at a 33% approve to 60% disapprove split last week.
What’s the point: Before we bid adieu: This story has been updated with more poll numbers released in Trump’s final days as president.
Biden Campaign Launches Turnout Effort Targeting Lgbtq Voters
Joe Bidens presidential campaign on Monday announced the launch of a robust get-out-the-vote effort targeting LGBTQ voters.
The effort, called, Out for Biden, will be aimed at turning out a record number of LGBTQ voters in November by fostering relationships with pro-equality partners to register and mobilize LGBTQ+ voters around the country, with an emphasis on key battleground states, the campaign said in a statement.
“Our campaigns decision to launch Out for Biden in the shadow of historic protest elevates the power of the moment and encourages deep and sometimes difficult dialogue within our LGBTQ+ community as Pride month begins, said Reggie Greer, the Biden campaigns LGBTQ+ vote director. LGBTQ+ people of color are central to the fabric of our communities. We must elect a government that will center their voices and celebrate the contributions of LGBTQ+ people everywhere, Greer added.
Donald Trump’s Disapproval Rating Hits Highest Level Since Impeachment Peak
President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating has reached its highest level since the early stages of his impeachment, polling data shows.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s approval rating tracker, Trump’s disapproval rating stood at 54.8 percent on Wednesday morning, just 0.2 points below his 55 percent disapproval ranking on November 4 last year.
Trump’s net disapproval rating of 13.7 percentage points is also at its lowest level since the height of the House impeachment inquiry last year.
The president’s rising disapproval rating comes amid criticism of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and protests against police brutality following the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis in late May.
One poll conducted by Morning Consult between June 6 and 7 found that half of voters felt Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic was “poor” as a further 11 percent described it as “just fair.”
A little more than a third of polled voters said the president’s reaction to the pandemic had been “excellent” or good.
Another survey for CNN conducted by SSRS between June 2 and 5 also revealed that almost two-thirds of voters disapproved of the way Trump was handling race relations amid unrest over the death of Floyd, a 45-year-old black man, while in police custody.
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Calculating A Trend Line
Because individual polls can be noisy, we estimate how Trumps approval rating has changed over time using local polynomial regression. Basically, this consists of drawing a smooth curve over the data this method is similar to those used on Huffington Post Pollster and other sites. In the regression, polls are weighted on the basis that I described earlier, so higher-quality polls with larger sample sizes have more say in the estimate.
While local polynomial regression is a flexible and fairly intuitive method, its a bit trickier to work with than it might seem. Thats because people dont always take the time to determine the correct degree of smoothing, which is governed by several parameters, including the bandwidth and the degree of the polynomial. Too little smoothing can make the curve jut up and down unnecessarily and will result in overfitting of the data. If you smooth too much, however, the curve may be aesthetically pleasing but wont do all that good a job of describing the data and may be slow to catch up to new trends. While there are usually a wide range of reasonable settings when choosing trend-line parameters, our experience has been that people often over-smooth the data when applying these techniques.6
Trumps Approval Rating Among Republicans Is Not As High As He Claims
First off, Trumps approval rating among Republicans isnt the 94 percent he claims its actually about 10 points lower. The Washington Post provided an overview of the relevant polling last month, after Trump posted a tweet on August 23 touting the fake Republican approval number he loves to cite:
A Monmouth University poll released Thursday found 84 percent of Republicans approve of Trumps job performance, while an AP-NORC poll found that 79 percent do. His highest recent approval mark among fellow Republicans was 88 percent in a Fox News poll of registered voters earlier this month.
Trumps claim of 94 percent approval among Republicans is also higher than in a Zogby Analytics poll released earlier this month that Trump has touted. That firm, whose surveys do not rely on a random sample of U.S. voters and whose pre-election polls have often been inaccurate, put Trumps approval rating among Republicans at 86 percent.
In short, its unclear where Trump is getting his 94% number from. But whatever its origins, it is not coming from a reputable source.
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Even If It Were True 94 Percent Republican Approval Would Not Be A Record
Its not the case that Trumps approval rating among Republicans is 94 percent, but even if it were, it wouldnt be the record he claims.
As Politifact detailed in June, when Trump claimed during a news conference with then-British Prime Minister Theresa May that I have a 90 to 94 percent approval rating, as of this morning, in the Republican Party an all-time record, he was discounting George W. Bushs GOP approval rating in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, which hit 99 percent. In fact, Trumps Republican approval rating during his first 30 months in office lagged behind not just George W. Bush, but George H.W. Bush as well.
So Trumps claim is a lie about a lie. But that sort of thing is par for the course for him.
Half Of Republican Respondents Said Former President Should Play Major Role In Partys Future
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Former president Donald Trumps popularity rating among Republicans has begun to bounce back since he left office, with half of respondents saying they think he should play a major role in the GOPs future.
According to tracking by Morning Consult, 81 per cent of Republican voters polled between 23 to 25 January hold positive views of Mr Trump, including 54 per cent who do so strongly.
The number marks an improvement on the 76 per cent low of Republican voters who favoured him in tracking between 10 and 12 of January ahead of his impeachment when those who strongly favoured Mr Trump sat at 49 per cent.
Fifty percent of Republican voters in a poll by the company between the 22 and 25 of January also think Mr Trump should maintain a significant role in the partys future, an increase of nine percentage points since the insurrection.
The former presidents popularity dropped following the 6 January when pro-Trump supporters attacked the Capitol as lawmakers gathered to certify Joe Bidens win, vandalising and looting the building.
The samples included responses from more than 4,400 Republican voters, with margins of error of 1 point.
Nearly half of Republican voters disapprove of McConnells approach to impeachment, while 32 percent approve of how hes tackled the issue.
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Donald Trumps Approval Rating Among Republicans Is Far Less Impressive Than He Suggests New Poll Indicates
President Donald Trump has often touted his strong approval ratings among Republican voters in recent weeks. But, according to poll data released Tuesday, that support may be far less impressive than he makes it out to be.
The survey, conducted by The Washington Post, originally found that Donald Trumps approval rating among Republicans was about 85 percent. Those results were on par with similar polls done in recent months, including one by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News from July that found his approval rating among conservative voters was as high as 88 percent.
But then, the Posts split poll-takers who identified as Republican into three separate groups: people who strongly identify with the GOP, people who identify as Republican but not strongly and the remaining group who technically call themselves independents but say they lean toward the Republican Party. The results after these distinctions were made showed glaring discrepancies.
Trumps overall approval rating for those who identified as strongly Republican is an overwhelming 93 percent. But voters who identified themselves in this category make up less than 20 percent of Americans likely to vote in elections.
On Sunday, Trump tweeted that his approval ratings are very good and that they may even lead to a Red Wave this November.
Do not underestimate the UNITY within the Republican Party!
Donald J. Trump
How Racial Justice Protests Have Started A Contemporary Culture War
This lack of crossover support for presidents in their first term in office points toward one of the most animating forces in American politics today: Increased disdain and hatred of ones political opponents, known as negative partisanship. As the chart below shows, opinions about the other party have become far more unfavorable since the late 1970s. In other words, its not that surprising that Americans are far less likely to approve of and more likely to intensely dislike presidents from the other party right from the moment they take office.
Such hostile sentiments reflect a world in which each major party increasingly believes the other poses a threat to the countrys well-being. Consider that in 2019, the Pew Research Center found that about three-fourths of Americans thought that Democrats and Republicans not only disagreed over plans and policies, but that they also couldnt agree on basic facts. This is certainly borne out in attitudes toward the economy: Democrats thought the economy was immediately doing worse once Trump took office, while Republicans immediately thought it was getting worse after Biden won the 2020 election. And in the lead-up to the 2020 contest, Pew also found that about 9 in 10 of both Biden and Trump supporters felt that the victory of the other partys presidential nominee would lead to lasting harm, a sign of how each side increasingly finds the other to be an unacceptable political alternative.
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Domestic Terrorism Is Seen As The Bigger Threat
With the 20-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks coming up this month, a plurality 44% thinks the country is less safe than it was before the attacks, while 30% say it’s safer and a quarter say about the same.
Politics is at play in this question as well. Two-thirds of Republicans said the U.S. is less safe.
Overall, more believe domestic terrorism 49% is a greater threat than international terrorism 41%.
Almost 7 in 10 Republicans said it was international terrorism, though, that was the bigger threat, while 7 in 10 Democrats said it was domestic terrorism.
Still, the overall number is a big shift from 2002 after 9/11 when by a 56%-to-30% margin in a CBS News poll, people said the opposite.
The survey of 1,241 adults was conducted Aug. 26 through Tuesday, via landline and mobile telephones. Survey questions were available in English and Spanish. The margin of error of the full sample was 3.8 percentage points. The margins of error for the subsets of Democrats, Republicans and independents were all larger.
Terry Mcauliffe To Democrats: Get It Done Do Your Job
Donald Trump is, ostensibly, a Republican. But he has shown time and again — both in the White House and now out of it — that he cares little about helping the party and its other candidates.
“If we don’t solve the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020 , Republicans will not be voting in ’22 or ’24. It is the single most important thing for Republicans to do.”
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When Will Joe Biden Be Sworn In
President=elect Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States .
Donald Trump is planning to leave the White House early and says he won’t be attending the ceremony – the first president in over 100 years not to hand the job to their successor in person.
Celebs including Jennifer Lopez and Lady Gaga are expected to perform at the Inauguration, where security will be higher than ever following the storming of the Capitol on January 6.
You can watch the inauguration on most major American news networks, including CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS News and Fox News.
Multiple States Hold Key Primaries As Coronavirus Pandemic Floyd Protests Continue
WASHINGTON On the day of George Floyd’s funeral in Houston and as coronavirus cases continue to rise, several states are holding primaries to determine which candidates will represent their parties come November.
Here are the races the NBC News political unit are paying closest attention to:
Georgia Senate: The top primary contest to watch is in Georgia, where several Democrats are running for the right to challenge Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., in the fall.
The favorite in this Democratic primary is 2017 congressional nominee, Jon Ossoff, and his top challengers are former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson and businesswoman Sarah Riggs Amico. The Cook Political Report lists the race as Lean Republican for November.
If none of the candidates break 50 percent, the Top 2 will advance to an Aug. 11 runoff.
South Carolina Senate: Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Democrat Jaime Harrison receive nominal primary opposition ahead of their expected November showdown in the Palmetto State. Harrison has raked in significant fundraising ahead of today’s contest.
Nevada 3rd District: Republicans will pick their nominee in Nevada to face Democratic Congresswoman Susie Lee, D-Nev., in the competitive Nevada district.
Nevada 4th District: Also in Nevada, incumbent Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, who recently admitted to having an affair with a former Senate staffer, is receiving a primary challenge from multiple Democrats, as well as Republicans who are trying to reclaim the seat.
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