Four Features Of Our Anti
Broadly speaking, there are fourfeatures of our system of government that make our democracy less democratic, many of them working in interlocking ways. These features also happen to give the GOP a structural advantage.
1) The Senate is deeply unrepresentative of the country
According to 2018 Census Bureau estimates, more than half of the US population lives in just nine states. That means that much of the nation is represented by only 18 senators. Less than half of the population controls about 82 percent of the Senate.
Its going to get worse. By 2040, according to a University of Virginia analysis of census projections, half the population will live in eight states. About 70 percent of people will live in 16 states which means that 30 percent of the population will control 68 percent of the Senate.
Once all of its members are sworn in, Democrats and Republicans will each control an equal number of seats in the Senate, but the Democratic half will represent nearly 42 million more people than the Republican half. The 25 most populous states contain about 84 percent of the population, and Democrat senators have a 29-21 majority in those states. Republicans, meanwhile, have an identical 29-21 majority in the 25 least populous states.
Hamiltons argument is refuted by three words: President Donald Trump.
List Of United States Presidential Elections By Popular Vote Margin
In a United States presidential election, the popular vote is the total number or the percentage of votes cast for a candidate by voters in the 50 states and Washington, D.C. the candidate who gains the most votes nationwide is said to have won the popular vote. However, the popular vote is not used to determine who is elected as the nation’s president or vice president. Thus it is possible for the winner of the popular vote to end up losing the election, an outcome that has occurred on five occasions, most recently in the 2016 election. This is because presidential elections are indirect elections the votes cast on Election Day are not cast directly for a candidate, but for members of the Electoral College. The Electoral College’s electors then formally elect the president and vice president.
The Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution provides the procedure by which the president and vice president are elected electors vote separately for each office. Previously, electors cast two votes for president, and the winner and runner up became president and vice-president respectively.
The appointment of electors is a matter for each state’s legislature to determine in 1872 and all elections since 1880, all states have used a popular vote to do so.
Comparative Table Of Elections
In the 1960 United States presidential election, Democratic candidate John F. Kennedy defeated Republican candidate Richard Nixon, winning 303 Electoral College votes to Nixon’s 219. Kennedy is generally considered to have won the popular vote as well, by a narrow margin of 0.17 percent , but based on the unusual nature of the election in Alabama, political journalists John Fund and Sean Trende later argued that Nixon actually won the popular vote.
The controversy stemmed from the fact that ballots in Alabama listed the individual electors pledged to the candidates, rather than a single slate of electors for each candidate as in all the other states. There were 11 Republican electors pledged to Nixon, 6 unpledged Democratic electors, and 5 Democratic electors pledged to Kennedy, from which each voter could choose up to 11. Consequently, there are multiple possible ways to calculate the popular vote that each candidate received.
In the event, the state’s electoral votes were awarded to the Democratic slate, of which the six unpledged electors cast their votes for non-candidate Harry F. Byrd as a protest against Kennedy’s support for civil rights, while the other five electors voted for Kennedy.
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Who Has Received The Most Votes For President
In the election of 1968, Richard Nixon won with a majority of 32 votes.
How much did Donald Trump lose the popular vote by?
Ultimately, Trump received 304 electoral votes and Clinton 227, as two faithless electors defected from Trump and five defected from Clinton. Trump is the fifth person in U.S. history to become president while losing the nationwide popular vote.
Who Won Popular Vote But Lost Election
. Correspondingly, how many times has the winner of the popular vote lost the presidential election?
Comparison of the presidential elections of 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016, in which the Electoral College winners lost the popular vote only in 1876 did the unsuccessful candidate receive more than 50 percent.
Likewise, who won the popular vote in the last 10 elections? List
Also question is, did JFK lose the popular vote?
Kennedy won a 303 to 219 Electoral College victory and is generally considered to have won the national popular vote by 112,827, a margin of 0.17 percent, though some argue that Nixon should be credited with the popular vote victory, as the issue of the popular vote was complicated by the presence of several unpledged
Did Obama win popular vote?
Obama defeated Romney, winning a majority of both the popular vote and the Electoral College. Obama won 51.1% of the popular vote compared to Romney’s 47.2%.
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Why Did Trump Lose The Popular Vote Because He Didnt Care About It And Because They Cheated
When it comes to explaining why he lost the popular vote, President Trump has a simple explanation. He lost the popular vote because he wasnt interested in winning the popular vote, focusing instead on the electoral college and if hed focused on the popular vote, he would have won that even more easily, and also he lost the popular vote because his opponents cheated in some of the deepest-blue states in the country.
Done and done.
In his first major interview since moving into the White House, Trump took ABCs David Muir on a tour of the gilded, expansive recesses of both his new residence and his mind. Thanks to Trumps tweets on the subject, Muir quickly turned the questioning to the subject of voter fraud, which Trump insists was a huge factor in Novembers election and which reality suggests was not.
Trump used the subject to reiterate a defense of his popularity.
I wouldve won the popular vote if I was campaigning for the popular vote, he said. I wouldve gone to California where I didnt go at all. I wouldve gone to New York where I didnt campaign at all. I wouldve gone to a couple of places that I didnt go to.
And I wouldve won that much easier than winning the electoral college, he added. But as you know, the electoral college is all that matters. It doesnt make any difference. So, I wouldve won very, very easily. But its a different form of winning. You would campaign much differently. You would have a totally different campaign.
How Did This System Evolve
The Electoral College was born at the 1787 Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.
The nations founders hoped to quell the formation of powerful factions and political parties, and they wanted a mechanism that did not rely solely on popular majorities or Congress. Despite the name, it is not a college in the modern educational sense, but refers to a collegium or group of colleagues.
The system had some unusual results from the start, as evident in the election of 1800, a tie in which Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr received an equal number of electoral votes. Congress broke the tie, and Jefferson became president and Burr became vice president.
Today, electors meet in their respective states on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December Dec. 14 this year to cast separate ballots for president and vice president, with the candidates who receive a majority of votes being elected.
Electors are chosen every four years in the months leading up to Election Day by their respective states political parties. Processes vary from state to state, with some choosing electors during state Republican and Democratic conventions. Some states list electors names on the general election ballot.
The process of choosing electors can be an insiders game, said Kimberly Wehle, a professor at the University of Baltimore and the author of What You Need to Know About Voting and Why. They are often state legislators, party leaders or donors, she said.
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Did Gore Win The Popular Vote
4.1/5Gorepopular votevotevotevotedetail here
Gore won the national popular vote but lost the electoral college vote after a bitter legal battle over disputed vote counts in the state of Florida, ultimately resolved by the Supreme Court of the United States in a 5-4 decision. Bush won the election on the electoral college vote of 271 to 266.
Likewise, did Obama win popular vote? Obama defeated Romney, winning a majority of both the popular vote and the Electoral College. Obama won 51.1% of the popular vote compared to Romney’s 47.2%.
People also ask, did Al Gore win the popular vote in the 2000 presidential election?
Bush, won the election, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gore, the incumbent vice president. It was the fourth of five presidential elections in which the winning candidate lost the popular vote, and is considered one of the closest elections in US history.
What president was elected without winning the popular vote?
1876: Rutherford B. HayesTilden was, and remains, the only candidate in American history who lost a presidential election despite receiving a majority of the popular vote.
Predicting The Next Elections Electoral College Bias From Available History
We would like to predict the likely Electoral College bias in 2020. For this task, we must predict 2020s relative partisan divisions of the states on the Republican vs. Democrat continuum. To do this, we need to take the states past vote divisions into account. To find the right formula, we must look to the past to see how state vote divisions could be predicted from even earlier state vote divisions.
Fortunately, from the 1980 to 2016 era, a clear and simple answer emerges. To predict the relative positions of the states on the partisan continuum in terms of presidential voting in election year t, the one useful predictor is the set of state vote divisions in the previous election in year t 4. The state voting in earlier election years does not seem to matter. This result greatly simplifies the analysis.
Statistically speaking, state presidential voting behaves as an autoregressive model of order 1. SI Appendix presents a full discussion. As a basis for simulating possible 2020 Electoral College outcomes, we model state presidential voting over the nine presidential elections from 1984 to 2016. Pooling across years, we model each states voting outcome in election year t as a function of state voting in election year t 4 and obtain the following equation for each state: D .
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Education Level Major Reason For Popular Vote/electoral College Split
The discrepancy between the popular vote and Electoral College was caused mainly by solid swings to Clinton in the two most populous states, California and Texas, but big swings to Trump in the midwest. Clintons gains in California and Texas resulted in zero additional EVs, while Trumps big gains in the midwest hugely benefited him in the Electoral College, as he won five midwestern states that had previously been won by Obama, and thus gained all those states EVs.
Education level was the biggest factor in explaining the swings, with higher educated voters likely to swing to Clinton, and lower educated voters to Trump. The states Trump gained had a greater proportion of non-University educated whites than nationally. US analyst Nate Silver shows that education level, not income, explained the swings. Even in counties with more black or Hispanic voters than whites, the relationship between education level and swing to Trump applied.
In the midwest, the proportion of non-University educated whites is higher than nationally, and there are few Hispanics. Blacks vote heavily for Democrats, but their turnout was down as Obama was not the candidate. Hispanic turnout was higher than in 2012, and this improved Clintons position in Texas, Arizona and California, which also have many university-educated whites. However, none of these states flipped.
Biden Team Already Working Toward Transition
Biden will be inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, whether Trump acknowledges his win as legitimate or not. Biden has already begun the process of transitioning to the countrys highest office.
Though Trump has not formally conceded, his administration has granted the new administration access to intelligence briefings, office space, secure computers and other government services, USA TODAY previously reported. Trump tweeted Nov. 23 that the move was made at his recommendation.
The announcement, made by Emily Murphy of the General Services Administration, allocated over $6 million to Bidens transition team for hiring and other transition-related expenses. Since then, Biden has made a number of Cabinet picks, including his chief of staff, Treasury secretary, director of national intelligence, head of the Department of Homeland Security, ambassador to the United Nations, climate change envoy, secretary of State, Defense secretary and Health and Human Services secretary.
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Explainer: They Lost The Popular Vote But Won The Elections
Five times in U.S. history, candidates have lost the popular vote but won the presidency most recently in 2016. Could Donald Trump be the first to do it twice?
A look at an American political anomaly:
1824: Andrew Jackson won pluralities of both the popular vote and the Electoral College, but not a majority, sending the election to the House of Representatives. There were three other candidates, like Jackson members of the Democratic-Republican Party John Quincy Adams, William Crawford and Henry Clay. Clay threw his support to Adams, sealing the victory for Adams, who made Clay his secretary of state. Irate at this corrupt bargain, Jackson quit the Senate and ran again for president in 1828. That time, he won easily.
1876: Democrat Samuel Tilden beat Republican Rutherford B. Hayes by more than 200,000 votes. But he needed 185 Electoral College votes and got only 184 to Hayess 165 20 votes in Florida, Louisiana, Oregon and South Carolina were disputed. Congress set up a commission composed of representatives of both parties to decide the winner on March 2, three days before the inauguration, they chose Hayes a compromise the Democrats agreed to in exchange for a promise to pull federal troops from the South, ending Reconstruction.