Bidens Impact On The Midterm Ballot
- Morning Consults generic ballot test in June 2018, at a similar place in the midterm cycle, found no such discrepancy: Voters who disapproved of Trump were just as likely to say theyd vote for the Democratic candidate as voters who approved of him were to back a Republican.
- The GOP has made gains on the generic ballot since Morning Consult began tracking the question this cycle, with congressional Republicans now tied with Democrats, compared with a deficit of 4 percentage points in September.
The latest Morning Consult/Politico survey was conducted June 4-5, 2022, among a representative sample of 2,006 registered U.S. voters, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Ballotpedia’s Polling Index: Comparison Of Opinion Polling During The Trump And Biden Administrations
| Cabinet White House staff Transition team |
| Policy positions |
Weeks covered: 84
This page compares overall trends in opinion polling averages during the presidency of Joe Biden to those during the presidency of Donald Trump . Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are an average of polls that measure public sentiment on presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and satisfaction with the overall direction of the country.
Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are updated every weekday based on opinion polls released by qualifying sources. The most recent poll released by each qualifying source is included in the overall polling average. Polls are removed from the average when the same source releases a more recent poll or 30 days after the poll was last in the field, whichever occurred first. This page looks at these polling numbers on a week-over-week basis, starting with the first full workweek of the new president’s term. This means that the numbers on this page are all weekly averages of daily average poll results.
To view the current polling index, click here. For a detailed look at opinion polling during the Trump administration, including a full list of qualifying polls taken, click here.
HIGHLIGHTS
Presidential Approval Tracker: How Popular Is Joe Biden
Joe Bidens presidency has been dominated by historic challenges a resurgent Covid pandemic, an uncertain economy and the American militarys withdrawal from Afghanistan.
But how will these events affect his approval rating?
Bidens predecessor, Donald Trump, saw his approval rating stay within a narrow 9-point range during his presidency, despite all of the turbulent events and stories during his time in office.
Bookmark this page to see if Bidens approval rating will follow suit. The chart below shows his approval rating history, along with those of former Presidents Trump, Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. It will be updated as new polls are released.
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Bidens Weakest Job Approval Rating
- The latest survey found that 58% of voters disapprove of Bidens job performance and 39% approve. It marks the 46th presidents lowest approval rating and highest disapproval rating in 62 weekly surveys conducted since he took office in January 2021.
- For comparison, Bidens latest numbers are worse than Donald Trumps were at this time four years ago, when 45% approved and 52% disapproved of the former president. Bidens popularity, or lack thereof, mirrors Trumps standing in 2020, when the nation was grappling with the twin crises of the pandemic and the response to the murder of George Floyd.
- Republicans are far more strident in their disdain for Biden than Democrats are in their support: 80% of GOP voters strongly disapprove of Bidens job handling, compared with 37% of Democrats who strongly approve of it.
Trump Approval Rating By State 2022
The presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. were introduced in the late 1930s by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president during their term. Approval ratings are determined by polling given to a sample of people.
Like most surveys, poll results may be inaccurate due to samples that self-select. However, statisticians generally accept the approval rating as a factual indicator of the peoples feelings about the president.
As of April 2020, President Trumps approval rate is 46.0% and his disapproval is at 49.6%.
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Trump Approval Rating By State 2021
The presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. were introduced in the late 1930s by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president during their term. Approval ratings are determined by polling given to a sample of people.
Like most surveys, poll results may be inaccurate due to samples that self-select. However, statisticians generally accept the approval rating as a factual indicator of the peoples feelings about the president.
As of April 2020, President Trumps approval rate is 46.0% and his disapproval is at 49.6%.
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Polls Put Trumps Approval Rating Lower
Despite the recent decline in Bidens approval, Trumps ratings were lower during his time in office.
Bidens approval rating has clearly taken a turn for the worse in the past several weeks, but he is still faring better than Trump at this point in their presidencies, Burden said. Trump had one of the lowest and steadiest approval ratings of any modern president.
FiveThirtyEight put the polling average for Trumps approval rating at 38.8% on Sept. 9, 2017, his first year in office. The lowest point of his term came on Dec. 16, 2017, with an average approval rate of 36.4%.
This claim is also wrong looking only at the YouGov poll.
YouGov reported Trumps approval rating never increased far above 40% and reached a term low of 34% in a poll conducted Nov. 10-14, 2017.
In other words, Trumps low is well below Bidens current level in YouGov polling.
According to Gallup, Trumps approval rating ranged between 34% and 49% over the course of his presidency. Trump hit the lower end of that range in January, following the insurrection at the Capitol.
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Trump Viewed Favorably By More In Iowa Gop Than Chuck Grassley
Trump has always been a polarizing figure in the state the percentage of all Iowans who viewed him favorably topped 50% only once before in polls dating to January 2018. That was in March 2020, just as the coronavirus pandemic began to surge in the U.S.
But he has maintained popularity among Iowa Republicans throughout his time in office, and the vast majority continue to view him favorably.
According to the Registers Iowa Poll, 91% of Iowa Republicans have a favorable view of him and just 7% view him unfavorably. Another 2% are not sure.
Those marks put Trump in league with Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is viewed favorably by 90% of Iowa Republicans. And it surpasses Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, who is viewed favorably by 81% of Iowans.
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I did not foresee the day when Donald Trump would be 10 points more popular with Iowa Republicans than the venerable Chuck Grassley, said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.
That Republican goodwill contrasts with Democrats feelings for Trump, 99% of whom view him unfavorably. Just 1% view him favorably.
Independent Iowans are nearly evenly split, with 48% viewing him favorably and 49% viewing him unfavorably. Another 3% are unsure.
Nbc News Poll: Steve Kornacki Breaks Down Bidens Approval Rating
Its the first time since July 2019 when party supporters have outnumbered Trump supporters in our poll, and its also the first time that party supporters have reached 50 percent on this question.
Strikingly, these numbers are coming as the perception of Trumps pull within his party couldnt be stronger.
GOP politicians are still trekking to Mar-A-Lago. Theyre clamoring for his endorsement. And House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy continues to hug Trump, even after what happened on Jan. 6.
But close to 100 days after leaving office, Trumps standing nationally as well within his own party is weaker today than it was three months ago.
Now we know what youre probably thinking: Since the 2020 polls understated Trumps support, isnt this poll maybe also understating his current support?
And you could be right.
But say you improved his favorable/unfavorable score by 5 points in both directions to 37 percent positive, 50 percent negative.
Thats still a rough set of numbers for someone many Republicans continue to view as the leader of their party.
Here are some other numbers to chew on from our new NBC News poll: There is a significant difference in political attitudes between those who consume conservative media and those who consume everything else.
Percentage with very positive view of Trump
- All adults: 21 percent.
- Conservative media diet: 46 percent.
- Liberal media diet : 8 percent.
- Social media : 21 percent.
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Data Download: The Numbers You Need To Know Today
58 percent: The share of Americans who say their bigger concern is making sure that everyone who wants to vote can do so, per new NBC News poll.
38 percent: The share who say their bigger concern is making sure that no one votes who is not eligible to vote.
1.6 million: The number of valid signatures collected by backers of the recall election against California Gov. Gavin Newsom, per the secretary of states office.
$400 million: How much the recall election could cost, according to the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials.
$15 an hour: The new minimum wage for federal contractors, starting in January, under an executive order that President Biden is set to sign.
89: The number of people New York fell short by in its count to retain one of its House seats.
32,276,517: The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials.
576,763: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far, per the most recent data from NBC News. (Thats 474 more than yesterday morning.
230,768,454: The number of vaccine doses administered in the U.S.
26.5 percent: The share of Americans who are fully vaccinated
2: The number of days left for Biden to reach his 100-day vaccination goal.
Sahil Kapur notes that Bidens first 100 days have been shaped in some ways by the first 100 days of his Democratic predecessor.
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Why Donald Trumps Approval Rating Is So High Among Republicans
As the U.S. experienced mass unrest over police brutality and racial inequality, a huge spike in unemployment, and on the current count more than 116,000 coronavirus deaths, President Donald Trumps approval rating took an unsurprising turn for the worse.
But there is one group of voters who have remained squarely in Trumps corner in spite of the triple crises facing the nation: Republicans.
Over the past few months, the president has frequently gloated about his high party-approval figures. Tweeting about his approval rating among Republicans on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: 96% Approval Rating in the Republican Party. Thank you!
As The Washington Post reported at the end of May, the presidents evidence-free claim to have a 96 percent approval rating among GOP voters is not grounded in actual polling data.
Nevertheless, his rating among the Republican base has been consistently high over the last three months.
A new Morning Consult/Politico poll of 653 Republicans found 83 percent approved of Trumps record, a fall of only 5 percentage points from the pollsters March survey. The latest poll, conducted between June 12 to 14, has a 2 percentage point margin of error.
So how has the presidents approval rating among Republicans stayed so high, even amid unrest over race relations, unemployment, and public health?
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Two Different Paths To 41%
President Biden and former president Trump dont have a lot in common. But, they share the inauspicious distinction of having the lowest approval ratings in modern history for a president 500 days into his first term. The fivethirtyeight.com tracker has Bidens net approval rating at a dismal -13.3, two points lower than Trumps -11 in June of 2018.
But, the paths they took to these dismal ratings are very different.
Trump began his presidency with little support from independents and some skepticism among his own base. By the 2018 midterm election, Trump had consolidated his base, but remained deeply unpopular with independent voters. Meanwhile, Biden started his tenure with strong support from his partisans and decent approval ratings among independent voters. But, Biden lost altitude with both in the late summer/early fall of last year and has yet to regain that support.
The question now is whether the different routes their subpar approval ratings can tell us anything about the likely outcome of the November midterm.
However, opinions of Trump among independents started low and remained low throughout Trumps first two years in office. Gallup polling from the spring of 2017 found Trumps job approval ratings among independents at an anemic 36 percent. By the summer of 2018 they stayed in that same range . By October, just 38 percent of independents approved of the job Trump was doing in office.
Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
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“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
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Us President Is Being Forced To Deal With Some Of The Same Dynamics As His Predecessor
Former US president Donald Trump has overtaken his successor Joe Biden in favourability ratings among American voters in what has been described as a remarkable turnaround.
The Times reported that, just eight months after the transfer of power, Trump has a positive rating of 48% compared with Bidens 46% in a Harvard-Harris poll. Back in February, Biden had a 56% positive rating compared with Trumps 43%.
The team that surrounded Trump during his reign also fared better than Bidens circle. Some 55% of respondents said that Mike Pence was a better vice president than his successor, Kamala Harris, and 63% believed that Mike Pompeo was a better secretary of state than Antony Blinken.
A number of other surveys have discovered the same trend, with a poll in the bellwether state of Iowa putting Bidens approval rating at just 31%, down from 43% in June.
Meanwhile, after Biden dropped to a new low of 43% approval in the monthly Gallup survey, down six points from August and 14 since his inauguration in January, the pollster pointed out that among elected presidents since World War Two, only Trump has had a lower job approval rating than Biden does at a similar point in their presidencies.
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Trump Support Remains Unmoved By Investigations Poll Finds
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The American publics views of former President Donald J. Trump have remained remarkably stable across a number of different measures in recent months, even as he faces multiple investigations and as he remains a central figure in the midterm elections, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
Voters held nearly identical views from those earlier in the summer on whether they had a favorable view of Mr. Trump, whether they thought he had committed serious federal crimes, and whom they would support in a hypothetical 2024 Trump-Biden matchup.
Overall, 44 percent of voters viewed Mr. Trump favorably, and 53 percent viewed him unfavorably . The recent poll was fielded early this month, after news of the Justice Departments inquiry into Mr. Trumps handling of confidential documents but before the New York attorney general announced she was suing Mr. Trump and his family business.
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Approval Ratings By State
Approval ratings vary greatly by state and can indicate how a state will vote in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. Since his inauguration in January 2017, President Trumps net approval has decreased in every state. President Trumps approval rating is decreasing in important states that he won in his 2016 election, including swing states and states that are consistently Republican in every election. The three key states Trump had in his 2016 election are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which currently have approval ratings under 50%.
Below are each states approval ratings for President Trump as of February 2020. Data is from a poll by the Morning Consult.
- Net approval since Trump took office has decreased by 22 percentage points
