What We Dont Know
Whether or not Trump will actually run. The ex-president has repeatedlyteased his 2024 candidacy, but so far has yet to publicly commit to running. Any decision may still be months away: Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in December hed likely discuss that subject right after the midterms in November.
Arizona To Build Own Wall Frustrated Over Biden Inaction On Border Crisis
If the next presidential election were held today, former President Donald Trump would defeat President Biden by six percentage points and Vice President Kamala Harris by 11 percentage points, according to a new poll.
The 45th president would unseat Biden by a 47% to 41% margin, according to the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll published by The Hill. However, 12% of voters are undecided.
Harris going up against Trump would produce an even worse result for Democrats 49% would vote for the former president compared to 38% for the veep.
Neither Trump nor Biden has officially thrown his hat into the 2024 ring, but both have hinted that they would run again.
The truth is I ran twice, I won twice and I just did better the second time. And now, we just might have to do it again, Trump told supporters at a rally in Georgia Saturday night.
Biden said last week that he would be very fortunate to face Trump again in 2024.
The next election, Id be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me, the president said during a news conference in Brussels on Thursday after meeting with NATO allies about the Ukraine invasion.
Biden defeated Trump in 2020 with 306 Electoral College votes to Trumps 232, winning the battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He also won the popular vote count by more than 7 million.
If Biden, 79, and Trump, 75, opt not to run again, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the favorite to carry the GOP standard.
Biden Surges To Beat Trump By 6 Points In 2024 Rematch Poll
President Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by a sizable margin in new polling by The Wall Street Journal, after a survey from the conservative-leaning publication earlier this year showed the incumbent and the former president tied.
While Biden, 79, has repeatedly said that he plans to seek a second term in 2024, Trump, 76, has not officially confirmed any plans to runalthough he continually teases the possibility in public remarks and interviews. Meanwhile, some Democrats have expressed concern about Biden’s ability to win reelection due to his underwater approval rating and concerns about his age.
New polling released Thursday by the Journal showed Biden leading Trump by 6 points. The Democratic president was supported by 50 percent of registered voters, and the former Republican president was backed by only 44 percent.
At the same time, Biden and Trump were nearly tied when it comes to their approval rating. The current president only led the former president by 1 point, with 45 percent saying they approve of the job Biden is doing in the White House compared to 44 percent who said they approved of the job Trump had done.
The new poll was conducted from August 17 to 25 with Impact Research and Fabrizio, Lee and Associates. It included 1,313 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percent
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How Are The Results Reported
The election results on this page are reported by the Associated Press . AP call the winner in a state when they determine that the trailing candidate has no path to victory. This can happen before 100% of votes in a state have been counted.
Estimates for the total vote in each state are also provided by AP. The numbers update throughout election night, as more data on voter turnout becomes available.
Trumps Fixation On The Past Puts His Political Future In Limbo
But some Trump allies believe he may ultimately opt against a run, either for health reasons or, if Bidens poll numbers rebound, because he doesnt want to risk a second loss, even though he has yet to acknowledge the first defeat.
So far, a slew of prominent Republicans have begun making overt moves to run in 2024. Whether they will abandon their own White House dreams if the former president were to run again is another matter entirely.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sens. Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz are among those who made appearances in early voting states, and some have started securing top political consultants. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has hinted shed mount a bid but wouldnt run against Trump if he decides to enter the race. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has suggested he may run even if Trump does. And there is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as an heir-apparent to Trump and the populist MAGA movement.
Things may be just as uncertain on the Democratic side of the ledger. If Biden opts against seeking reelection, the field may not clear out for Vice President Kamala Harris, who has yet to find her political footing in the role. Two 2020 candidates, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker , each have held recent high-profile events on hot button election topics.
If Biden opts to seek a second term, a serious primary challenge would be unlikely.
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Hear Liz Cheney’s Plan If Trump Wins The Gop Nomination
There’s one tiny sliver of hope for Joe Biden in a devastating new poll that flags rising concerns over the President’s age and performance and shows even most Democrats want another candidate in 2024. He could still beat Donald Trump.
Were Lacking In The Excitement
Elected Democrats are cautious about openly discussing Mr. Bidens future.
Im not allowed to have feelings right now, said Jasmine Crockett, a Texas state representative who last month won a primary runoff for a heavily Democratic House seat based in Dallas. When youre an incoming freshman, you just dont get to.
Still, Ms. Crockett lamented a stark enthusiasm gap between Republicans, who in Texas have passed legislation to restrict voting rights and abortion rights while expanding gun rights, and Democrats, who have not used their narrow control of the federal government to advance a progressive agenda.
Democrats are like, What the hell is going on? Ms. Crockett said. Our country is completely falling apart. And so I think were lacking in the excitement.
Many Democratic leaders and voters want Mr. Biden to fight harder against Republicans, while others want him to seek more compromise. Many of them are eyeing 2024 hoping for some sort of idealized nominee somebody who isnt Mr. Biden or Ms. Harris.
Hurting Mr. Biden the most, said Faiz Shakir, who was campaign manager for Mr. Sanders in 2020, is a perception of weakness.
Mr. Shakir circulated a memo in April stating that Mr. Sanders has not ruled out running in 2024 if Mr. Biden does not. In an interview, Mr. Shakir said he believed that Mr. Biden could beat Mr. Trump a second time but that if Republicans nominate a newer face, like Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Mr. Biden may not be the best choice.
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Can We Expect Anything Other Than Biden Vs Trump In 2024
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : We know the 2022 midterm elections havent happened yet, but this summer has seen an unusual amount of activity on the 2024 front.
Namely, many Americans, including Democrats, are really down on the idea of President Biden seeking a second term, while former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle. A sizable portion of Americans say they dont want Biden or Trump to have a second term, but is there, uh a path for anyone who isnt Trump or Biden in 2024?
Lets tackle this chat in two parts:
OK, first up. Is there a Democrat who can take on Biden?
alex : I dont think so, Sarah, especially if Trump is the nominee. If Trump announces that hes running for a second term, I think: 1) Biden will run again, and 2) there wont be a damaging primary to take him down.
What Democrat is going to take Biden on against Trump? Democrats will coalesce around the nominee who can beat Trump, and Biden has already proved that he can.
alex: Right, Nathaniel. I just dont see notable Democrats wanting to participate in a messy, protracted primary against the sitting president. It would be a terrible look for the party.
Bidens Associates Say He Will Feel Compelled To Run If Trump Does If That Rematch Materializes Biden Said Recently I Would Not Be Disappointed
President Biden for most of his life has engaged in a near-quadrennial regimen of deciding whether he can, should or will run for president giving perhaps more thought, over a longer period of time, to that question than anyone in American history.
Hes about to undertake a similar process in the coming months, one that will involve discussions with his wife, Jill perhaps in quiet moments during their upcoming vacation in Rehoboth Beach, Del. along with considerations of how a run would affect his family, including potential congressional investigations of his son.
But as the president weighs his options, according to those close to him, one person looms largest over his decision: the man hes often tried to ignore, the one whose legacy hes worked to erase, the one hes simply called the former guy.
Biden was motivated to run for office in large part because he saw himself as best positioned to defeat President Donald Trump. He still considers knocking Trump out of the White House one of his major contributions to Americas welfare. And with Trump looming as the potential Republican nominee hes eyeing a September announcement Biden maintains that he is still best positioned to beat him.
Im not predicting, Biden recently told an Israeli TV interviewer, when asked about a Trump-Biden rematch. But I would not be disappointed.
The Suburban Vote Mattered In Michigan Pennsylvania And Wisconsin
The three northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsinwhich flipped to Trump in 2016again entered the Democratic fold in 2020. Here, even more than in the national analysis, the 2016 to 2020 suburban shifts to either greater Democratic or smaller Republican support were instrumental in Bidens victory. See Figure 2 and Downloadable Tables A and B.
Michigans swing from Trump to Biden had much to do with shifts in several suburban counties. In these counties, Trumps substantial seven point margin in 2016 changed to an almost even Democratic-Republican split in 2020. Thisalong with greater Democratic gains in urban cores and small metro areasmore than countered Trumps still large nonmetropolitan margins. The near erasure of Trumps 91,000 suburban vote lead from 2016 played an important part in his Michigan defeat.
Noteworthy shifts in Michigan came from counties in the Detroit suburbs, including Oakland County , and Macomb and Livingston counties, which registered smaller Trump vote advantages than in the last election. Counties in smaller metropolitan areasincluding Grand Rapids, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Kalamazooalso showed greater Democratic or lower Republican support.
Pennsylvania was a closer win for Biden. Here, he depended heavily on lower Republican margins in suburban and small metro areas than in 2016. This, along with strong support from urban cores, allowed him to overcome continued Trump strength in rural areas.
Suburban Shifts In The Sun Belt
Suburban voting patterns also made a difference in the Sun Belt, especially in large southern states where suburbanization has been rampant. The focus here is on two such states: Georgia, where Biden is ahead and a recount has been announced and Texas, which Trump won, but where urban and suburban voting patterns closed the longtime Republican-Democratic gap. See Figure 3 and Downloadable Tables A and B.
A Democratic presidential candidate has not won Georgia since Bill Clinton took the state in 1992. Yet its demographic shiftsincluding brisk growth in the states Democratic-leaning Black population, gains in Latino or Hispanic and Asian Americans voters, and an increase in white college graduates, especially in the Atlanta metropolitan areaserved to make the state competitive for Democrats this year.
Georgias urban core counties helped the 2020 result swing toward Democrats. The counties of Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton have consistently voted Democratic in recent elections. The populous counties of Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry flipped to voting Democratic in 2016, and increased their Democratic margins even more so this year. Other suburban counties that showed increased Democratic support since 2016 were Douglas, Newton, and Rockdale.
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Joe Biden Told Barack Obama He Will Run Again In 2024 Report
President thinks hes the only one who can beat Trump, source tells the Hill, as Trump is readying his own third run
Joe Biden has told Barack Obama he will run for re-election in 2024, according to a Washington website, the Hill.
The site cited two anonymous sources. One was quoted as saying Biden wants to run and hes clearly letting everyone know.
It was not clear when Biden told Obama his plans. But Obama visited the White House earlier this month, to celebrate the Affordable Care Act.
Introducing his host, Obama him Vice-President Biden.
That was a joke, he said, to laughter.
Biden was vice-president to Obama from 2009 to 2017. He won the presidency on his own third attempt in 2020 , beating Donald Trump.
At 78, Biden was the oldest president ever inaugurated. If he won again he would be 82 at the start of his second term.
Amid competing crises, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the coronavirus and rampant inflation at home, Bidens approval ratings have plummeted. Most observers expect Republicans to retake Congress in November. But the president has dropped plenty of hints that he does plan to run again.
In September, it was widely reported that Biden and aides had told allies he planned to run again. In December, Biden said he would run if he stayed in good health. He has also said Kamala Harris, his vice-president, would be on the ticket again.
Trump, 75, is readying his own third run for the presidency.
Biden’s Pollster Addresses Speculation Of A Biden
President Biden’s pollster said Biden is the best Democrat to challenge Trump in 2024.
“You go head-to-head and Joe Biden’s always ahead of him,” John Anzalone said.
Biden himself has suggested he would be “very fortunate” if Trump ran again.
President Joe Biden’s pollster says there’s ‘no indication’ the president won’t seek reelection in 2024, arguing that Democrats don’t have an alternative who could beat former President Donald Trump.
“I think that a lot of us feel that if Trump runs, there’s no one else that could beat Trump than Joe Biden,”John Anzalone told Politico’s Ryan Lizza in an interview published on Friday.
As for whether or not Biden will actually run, Anzalone said there’s “no indication that he won’t run.” Biden, who is already the oldest president in American history, has also refused to rule out a second term.
“I’d be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me,”Biden recently told reporters.
Anzalone said the 2022 midterms are shaping up to be the “worst political environment” for Democrats of his lifetime. But the good news, Anzalone says, is that even with anemic approval ratings Biden is still leading Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch.
“You go head-to-head and Joe Biden’s always ahead of him,” Anzalone said. “Not by a lot one or two points. Even at his lowest approval rating, he still beats Donald Trump.”
Read the original article on Business Insider
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One Day After Proclaiming He Beat Big Pharma Joe Biden Introduces A New Annual Covid Vaccine From Big Pharma
Less than 24 hours after making a weird proclamation that he defeated Big Pharma, Joe Biden introduces a new annual vaccine:
This week, we begin a new phase in our COVID-19 response. We are launching a new vaccine our first in almost two years with a new approach. For most Americans, that means one COVID-19 shot, once a year, each fall.
TRUTH LIVES on at
Starting this week, at tens of thousands of convenient pharmacies, doctors offices, and community health centers, and other places, Americans age 12 and older can go get this new fall COVID-19 vaccine. The new vaccines provide the strongest protection from the new Omicron strain of the COVID virus, which did not exist when the original vaccine was developed. As the virus continues to change, we will now be able to update our vaccines annually to target the dominant variant.
Just like your annual flu shot, you should get it sometime between Labor Day and Halloween. Its safe, its easy to get, and its free. Go to Vaccines.gov to find a location near your home or work.