Manufacturers Added 6 Times More Jobs Under Trump Than Under Obama’s Last 2 Years
In Trump’s first 2 years of office, manufacturers added 6 times more jobs than under Obama’s last 2… years.
Texas Public Policy Foundation
The federal government released its first jobs report of 2019, showing that nonfarm payroll grew by 304,000 in January, far above economists consensus estimate of 170,000. The average monthly gain in 2018 was 223,000.
Over the past year, average hourly earnings were up 3.2%.
After revising its data for past periods, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment grew by 5.1 million jobs in President Trumps first full two years in office, a 3.5% increase. Private sector payrolls grew by 4.9 million, a 4.0% increase.
Significantly, growth in manufacturing jobs continued to show strength, with 13,000 jobs added in January.
Over the past two years, with the encouragement of the Trump Administrations red-tape cutting policies and the tax cut and reform law passed in December 2017, manufacturers added 467,000 jobs, more than six times the 73,000 manufacturing jobs added in Obamas last two years.
Looking at Trumps first two years, the revised BLS data shows that more than two manufacturing jobs were added for every one job added in government at the federal, state, and local level. In contrast, under Obama, almost five government jobs were added for every one manufacturing job.
Trumps deregulatory and tax policies have confounded his critics and benefited the American worker.
Reduce Corporate And Investment Taxes
Trump’s tax plan, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This was the lowest rate since 1939.
This change may not be as dramatic as it sounds, though. Most corporations make good use of legal deductions.
The Congressional Budget Office found that a more cost-effective method would be to cut business payroll taxes and increase unemployment aid. Governments should target any stimulus to small businesses, which produce 65% of all new private-sector jobs.
The Trump Administration Has Not Succeeded In Reshoring Manufacturing
In recent congressional testimony, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer praised several companies that have scrapped offshoring efforts or have announced plans to move production to the United States, and he has further claimed that the era of reflexive offshoring is over . He also praised both the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement which took effect July 1and the current Phase One China trade deal. These are supposed to be signature accomplishments for the administration, contributing to a purported blue-collar boom.
It is important to note that the Trump administration has a habit of issuing press releases citing plans for major foreign investments in the U.S. that never materialize. In July 2017 Foxconn announcedto great fanfare from the White Houseplans to invest $10 billion and bring thousands of new American jobs to Wisconsin and elsewhere in the United States . News reports indicate that Foxconns buildings in Wisconsin were still empty as of April 2020 .1
But offshoring has in fact continued throughout this time, as reflected in changes in the total number of U.S. manufacturing plants, shown in Figure A. Overall, the U.S. has suffered a net loss of more than 91,000 manufacturing plants and nearly 5 million manufacturing jobs since 1997. Nearly 1,800 factories have disappeared during the Trump administration between 2016 and 2018 . The U.S. has experienced a net loss of manufacturing plants in every year from 1998 through 2018 .
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Trump Crams Policy Moves Real And Imagined Into Final Weeks
Trumps reelection campaign maintains that he has bolstered the manufacturing sector during his time in office, pointing to the hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs that were added prepandemic.
Back in 2016, people doubted President Trump could revive manufacturing in the United States, with then-President Obama saying he would need a magic wand to bring back manufacturing jobs but President Trumps policies delivered, campaign spokesperson Samantha Zager said. President Trump is already rebuilding our economy, adding back manufacturing jobs, and continuing to promote policies that boost American manufacturers, no magic wand needed.
Trump talked a lot about manufacturing, but the policies he engaged in were predictably damaging to manufacturing, Hicks said. As a result of the tariffs his administration imposed, people buy less , and if they buy less of them, that causes lower demand for employment.
Whether Trump wins reelection come November and is free to continue his trade wars could have an outsize impact on the U.S. manufacturing workforce, particularly given the sectors relatively modest job gains since February.
The returns from layoffs are probably over, Hicks said. And so if thats the case, if we see a second term of the Trump presidency, I would expect manufacturing employment to not be able to crawl back to what it was at the end of the Obama administration.
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The Us Must Rebuild A Sustainable Resilient Manufacturing
Even if the coronavirus pandemic is successfully controlled, we are likely to experience recurrent infections and hot spots until vaccines and more effective treatments arrive. Meanwhile, massive effort is needed, starting today, to rebuild and restructure the economy in ways that will address the needs of Black, Latinx, and women workers.
Millions of low-wage service jobs are unlikely to return. As we rebuild our economy, these jobs can and should be replaced with higher-wage jobs in manufacturing and construction that provide excellent benefits and afford workers the right to organize and bargain collectively. Planning and organizing these rebuilding effortsincluding design, permitting, and purchase of materials and rights-of-wayshould begin now, so that funding, projects, and employment can flow in earnest once the pandemic has been brought under control.
There are three essential components of a sustainable U.S. economy
Looking forward, the three pillars of building a sustainable, resilient, manufacturing-based economy are: rebalancing trade flows rebuilding U.S. infrastructure and supporting the transition to efficient and clean energy systems.5
The U.S. must rebalance trade flows
We must revise government procurement policies and trade rules to ensure that public infrastructure investments actually benefit U.S. workers and the U.S. economy
Investments should be financed with public debt until the economic crisis has subsided
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Jobs Created During Us Presidential Terms
Politicians and pundits frequently refer to the ability of the president of the United States to “create jobs” in the U.S. during his term in office.The numbers are most often seen during the election season or in regard to a President’s economic legacy. The numbers typically used and most frequently cited by economists are total nonfarm payroll employment numbers as collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly and annual basis. The BLS also provides numbers for private-sector non-farm employment and other subsets of the aggregate.
Among the Presidents from Jimmy Carter to Donald Trump, President Bill Clinton created the most jobs at 18.6 million, while Ronald Reagan had the largest cumulative percentage increase in jobs at 15.6%. This computation treats the base month as the December before the month of inauguration and last month as December of the final full year in office. Using the month after inauguration as the base month as shown in the accompanying diagram, the top four Presidents in terms of cumulative job creation percentage are Clinton , Reagan , Carter , and Obama .
How Much Influence Does The President Have On The Economy
Although presidential candidates usually make a lot of economic promises, their ability to fulfill them is somewhat limited. Much depends on factors outside of the president’s control, such as the state of the economy when they take office or national and global events that occur during their time in office. Presidents can impact the economy through things like budget decisions, tariffs, Federal Reserve appointments, and influencing Congress, but many of these policies have a delayed impact on the economy.
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Trump V Biden: Competing Plans To Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs
Trump and Biden have rolled out plans to shore up US manufacturing jobs as the country recovers from the economic fallout of COVID-19.
Bob, a manager at a personal care product manufacturing plant in northeast Pennsylvania, is one of the voters who may decide the outcome of the United States presidential election in November.
A 50-something-year-old resident of a crucial battleground state, Bob, who asked Al Jazeera to withhold his surname to protect his privacy, is not affiliated with either the Republican or Democratic party.
Since 2000, he has voted for candidates from both sides of the political spectrum. In 2008, Barack Obama won Bob over. In 2016, it was Donald Trump. In both cases, his decision pivoted on the candidate he felt would do the most to protect US manufacturing jobs like his.
I had hoped that with the Obama administration, we would see positive change, Bob told Al Jazeera. But for me and most people I know, it was a disastrous period. In addition to my very good healthcare plan being gutted and now more expensive, I lived through thousands of jobs in the company I work for either becoming eliminated, consolidated or moved out of the US.
Bob kept his job, he said, but many of his colleagues did not.
The last four years of the Obama administration were particularly devastating to manufacturing. The trade deals and regulations only added cost, and the main offset to the additional cost meant fewer people, he explained.
Pres Trump Touts Jobs Healthcare Amid Renewed Taxes Controversy
But nine days ago, GM announced that it will lay off 1,100 workers in Lansing, Michigan when the company ends a factory’s third shift in May. That means a loss of 200 jobs for the company even after the 900 jobs are either created or recovered. And 680 of the workers in line to benefit from this job savings announcement will first spend time out of work.
Here’s how Trump’s Michigan announcement breaks down, according to GM:
- 220 of the jobs Trump boasted on Wednesday are new
- Included in the 900 jobs saved number are 680 workers who will be laid off from Lansing in May, then eventually hired back
- Within the 680 number: 180 of those laid off in Lansing will be re-hired 60 miles away in Flint, Michigan sometime this year . Another 500 of those laid off in Lansing will be hired back sometime in “early 2018,” said GM spokesman Tom Wickham
This comes after, and in addition to, General Motors announced a $1 billion investment that would create or retain thousands of jobs “over the next few years.”
Their January announcement was one of the first investments that Trump took credit for, despite GM’s insistence that their decision dated back to 2014. It’s something Trump has done repeatedly since his November win.
Here, we fact check the various announcements Trump has sought to take credit for.
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So What Effect Would A Systematic Policy Forcing Companies To Repatriate Their Factories To The Us Have
What would happen if manufacturing companies followed the example of Ford and brought their production back to the US? There are two potential scenarios:
This analysis does not even consider possible retaliation measures by trading partners that may penalise products exported from the US, which could have negative impacts on the US manufacturing base.
Economists Have Been Surprised By Recent Strength In The Labor Market As The Federal Reserve Tries To Engineer A Slowdown And Tame Inflation
- Jobs Report: Job growth slowed in August but stayed solid, suggesting that the labor market recovery remains resilient, even as companies pull back on hiring.
- Black Employment: Black workers saw wages and employment rates go up in the wake of the pandemic. But as the Federal Reserve tries to tame inflation, those gains could be eroded.
- Slow Wage Growth: Pay has been rising rapidly for workers at the top and the bottom. But things havent been so positive for all professions, especially pharmacists.
During the 2020 presidential race, Mr. Trump has looked past the unintended consequences of many of his economic policies, boasting instead that he created the strongest economy in history. In the presidents campaign messaging, even some of his advertisements overlook the challenges that he has created for sectors he was trying to save, such as steel.
Mr. Trump imposed steep tariffs on global steel imports early on in his term, temporarily raising prices and helping American manufacturers. But as global demand for steel slowed as a result of rising prices, the industry was left with a hangover. A September ad, reported earlier by Vice News, showed an image of Mr. Trump wearing a hard hat during a 2018 visit to a U.S. Steel mill in Illinois. The same mill announced plans to furlough about 700 workers this year, and the Pittsburgh-based company said in May that it would reduce its work force by 2,700 overall as losses mounted.
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A Timeline Of The President’s Policies
Kimberly Amadeo is an expert on U.S. and world economies and investing, with over 20 years of experience in economic analysis and business strategy. She is the President of the economic website World Money Watch. As a writer for The Balance, Kimberly provides insight on the state of the present-day economy, as well as past events that have had a lasting impact.
Erika Rasure, is the Founder of Crypto Goddess, the first learning community curated for women to learn how to invest their moneyand themselvesin crypto, blockchain, and the future of finance and digital assets. She is a financial therapist and is globally-recognized as a leading personal finance and cryptocurrency subject matter expert and educator.
Donald Trump promised to be the greatest job-producing president in U.S. history. During his 2016 campaign, he pledged to create 25 million jobs in the next 10 years. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, there were 3.1 million fewer jobs in December 2020 than in January 2017 when Trump took office.
If Donald Trump had been able to keep his campaign promise, he would have beaten the current record-holder, President Bill Clinton, who during his two terms.
To create those jobs, Trump told the Economic Club of New York he wanted to establish a national goal of 4% economic growth. Let’s look at the details of his policies and how they’ve worked during his term.
Barack Obama : 89 Million
President Obama created 8.9 million jobs by the end of December 2016, a 6.1% increase over the work force he took over after the end of the Bush administration.
But that doesn’t give the total picture. The economy lost 8.7 million jobs as a result of the Great Recession, which took place from late-2007 through mid-2009. From June 2009 to December 2016, Obama created 12.2 million jobs, an 8.7% increase.
Obama attacked the Great Recession with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. It created jobs through public works. Many of those jobs were in construction. That successfully reduced the unemployment rate. But that meant Obama increased the debt by $8.6 trillion, a 72.3% increase.
Job creation would have been stronger during Obama’s term if Congress hadn’t passed sequestration. In his last FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke noted that these austerity measures forced the government to shed 700,000 jobs in four years. In the prior recovery from the 2001 recession, the economy added 600,000 jobs during the same period.
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Jobs Added In December Manufacturing Growing 714% Faster Under Trump Than Obama
President Donald Trump talks with reporters after signing the tax bill and continuing resolution to… fund the government, in the Oval Office of the White House, Friday, Dec. 22, 2017, in Washington.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its December jobs report Friday morning, showing nonfarm employment was up by 312,000, stronger than analysts expected.
The impressive jobs number, along with the Fed signaling patience on rate hikes, shook the stock market loose from its doldrums, with the Dow posting a 747-point gain.
With the December jobs number, President Trump now has two full years of economic performance to compare with his predecessor, President Obama. The two biggest statistical standouts are:
- Manufacturing jobs are growing at a 714% faster clip under Trump than over a similar time under Obama , and
- Under Obama, federal state and local government employment grew 6 times faster than did manufacturing jobs, while under Trump, that ratio has been reversed, with manufacturing jobs growing 5 times faster than government jobs.
Looking at jobs added over the 24 months through this December and comparing that with the last two years of the Obama Administration is illuminatingboth for the pace of employment expansion in the late stage of a business cycle, as well as for the composition of the jobs added.
|357,000 / 1.6%||99,000 / 0.4%|