Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
Trump Leaves On A Personal Low Note
The 34% job approval rating for Trump in Gallup’s Jan. 4-15 poll is one point lower than his prior lowest single rating, registered on several occasions in late 2017. The first of these came in August 2017, as Trump was facing intense criticism over his unvarnished threats against North Korean aggression and his response to deadly violence by a white nationalist at a protest in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Between October and December of that year, his approval fell to 35% on three separate occasions as Justice Department officials charged several of Trump’s 2016 campaign figures with crimes in the Russia investigation, including former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to officials in the investigation in December 2017.
His support fell below 40% in two June 2020 polls amid racial justice protests in response to the death of George Floyd at the hands of police and growing displeasure with his handling of the pandemic. By the time of the 2020 election in which he sought a second term, his support had recovered somewhat, and 46% approved of the job Trump was doing.
Trump is the only president not to register a 50% job approval rating at any point in his presidency since Gallup began measuring presidential job approval in 1938. Likewise, he is the only president who did not have a honeymoon period of above-average ratings upon taking office. His initial 45% job approval rating proved to be his high point for his first year as president.
Polls Put Trumps Approval Rating Lower
Despite the recent decline in Biden’s approval, Trump’s ratings were lower during his time in office.
“Biden’s approval rating has clearly taken a turn for the worse in the past several weeks, but he is still faring better than Trump at this point in their presidencies,” Burden said. “Trump had one of the lowest and steadiest approval ratings of any modern president.”
FiveThirtyEight put the polling average for Trump’s approval rating at 38.8% on Sept. 9, 2017, his first year in office. The lowest point of his term came on Dec. 16, 2017, with an average approval rate of 36.4%.
This claim is also wrong looking only at the YouGov poll.
YouGov reported Trumps approval rating never increased far above 40% and reached a term low of 34% in a poll conducted Nov. 10-14, 2017.
In other words, Trump’s low is well below Biden’s current level in YouGov polling.
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Direction Of The Country
|Direction of the country rating, 2017-2021|
Ballotpedia’s Polling Index: Opinion Polling During The Trump Administration
|Cabinet White House staff Transition team|
|Polling indexes: Opinion polling during the Trump administration|
During President Donald Trump‘s term, Ballotpedia tracked 2,895 approval polls from 21 polling firms that asked voters about the direction of the country and their approval of Congress’ and President Trump’s job performance. This page is an overview of opinion polling averages during Trump’s term. Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are an average of polls that measure public sentiment on presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and satisfaction with the overall direction of the country.
Ballotpedia’s polling index was updated daily on weekdays from January 27, 2017, through the end of President Trump’s term on January 20, 2021. The most recent poll released by each qualifying source was included in each day’s opinion averages. Polls were removed from the opinion averages when the pollster released a more recent poll or if 30 days had passed since the poll had been in the field, whichever occurred first. This means that all the figures on this page, even those referring to specific dates, are averages from across multiple polls rather than numbers taken from any one poll.
On this page, you will find coverage of three polling averages:
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Trumps Gop Approval Rating Is Lower By Double Digits Than He Claims
Randomly tweeting out unsourced approval ratings has become something of a habit for Trump, who is reportedly freaking out behind closed doors about his reelection chances.
As The Washington Post reported this week, In January 2019, he started claiming that his approval with Republicans was 93 percent. Last summer, he cranked it up to 94 percent. Then, as impeachment loomed and he sought to keep Republicans in line, it climbed to 95 percent. A month ago, under fire for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, he decided hed hit 96 percent.
In other words, the more Trumps presidency burns like an out-of-control dumpster fire, the higher his fake GOP approval rating goes. Its only a matter of time before Trump claims it stands at 100 percent.
In reality, the latest Fox News poll shows Trumps approval rating at about 85 percent among Republican voters.
The Fox poll also shows that against Joe Biden, Trump receives 84 percent of Republican support. Biden, on the other hand, gets 88 percent of Democratic support.
So not only is Trumps approval rating among Republicans much lower than he claims, but the Democratic Party appears to be more united behind their nominee than Republicans are.
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Trump’s Approval Rating Craters In Final Days
After four years of stability, the outgoing presidents poll numbers have reached new lows following last weeks Capitol insurrection.
President Donald Trumps slide means he will leave the Oval Office historically unpopular compared with most of his predecessors.
01/13/2021 06:00 AM EST
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
Trump Approval Higher Than Day He Left 85% In Gop: Poll
Former President Donald Trumps approval rating has increased since he left office a year ago, and nearly 9 in 10 Republicans now have a favorable view of him.
In dual surveys on Thursday showing Trumps rise and successor President Joe Bidens fall, 52% of voters told Rasmussen Reports that they have a favorable impression of the former president. Some 47% dont.
Among Republicans, 85% have a favorable view, with 63% declaring a very favorable opinion. Even 23% of Democrats and 51% of independents agree.
When he left office on Jan. 20, 2021, Trumps Rasmussen approval rating was 51%. And his GOP approval was 84%, so he has actually increased support.
The survey, like others before it, shows that many Republicans are sticking with Trump despite efforts by legacy media and Democrats to ridicule the 45th president and blame him for the Jan. 6 Capitol riots and dividing the nation.
Trump has hinted strongly that he plans a comeback effort and will run for president in 2024. Biden has said that if Trump follows through, he will run for reelection.
A second poll provided by Rasmussen, however, shows that many voters dont think Biden will win.
In that survey, just 28% of voters predicted Bidens reelection. Voter confidence in President Joe Bidens ability to do the job remains low and most dont expect a second term for the oldest president in U.S. history, said the polling outfit.
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Why Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Is So High Among Republicans
As the U.S. experienced mass unrest over police brutality and racial inequality, a huge spike in unemployment, and on the current count more than 116,000 coronavirus deaths, President Donald Trump’s approval rating took an unsurprising turn for the worse.
But there is one group of voters who have remained squarely in Trump’s corner in spite of the triple crises facing the nation: Republicans.
Over the past few months, the president has frequently gloated about his high party-approval figures. Tweeting about his approval rating among Republicans on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: “96% Approval Rating in the Republican Party. Thank you!”
As The Washington Post reported at the end of May, the president’s evidence-free claim to have a 96 percent approval rating among GOP voters is not grounded in actual polling data.
Nevertheless, his rating among the Republican base has been consistently high over the last three months.
A new Morning Consult/Politico poll of 653 Republicans found 83 percent approved of Trump’s record, a fall of only 5 percentage points from the pollster’s March survey. The latest poll, conducted between June 12 to 14, has a 2 percentage point margin of error.
So how has the president’s approval rating among Republicans stayed so high, even amid unrest over race relations, unemployment, and public health?
The Science Of Ranking Us Presidents
Is Barack Obama really the worst president since World War II? The Quinnipiac Poll announced just that result recently. There were thereafter a number of pushbacks from that conclusion, most based on the fact that such an open-end question reflects a “recency bias” in that Americans think about the presidents who are most top-of-mind.
Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspxGallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A +1 202.715.3030
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Trump Approval Rating By State 2022
The presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. were introduced in the late 1930s by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president during their term. Approval ratings are determined by polling given to a sample of people.
Like most surveys, poll results may be inaccurate due to samples that self-select. However, statisticians generally accept the approval rating as a factual indicator of the peoples feelings about the president.
As of April 2020, President Trumps approval rate is 46.0% and his disapproval is at 49.6%.
Six Theories Of Joe Bidens Crumbling Popularity
The presidents approval ratings keep falling. The question is why.
About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.
The biggest mystery in American politics right nowand perhaps the most consequential oneis how Joe Biden became so unpopular.
Biden began his presidency moderately popular: At the start, Quinnipiac Universitys polling found that 53 percent of Americans approved of him and 36 percent did not. Todays numbers are the mirror image: In a Quinnipiac poll released yesterday, 36 percent approve, while 53 percent disapprove. FiveThirtyEights average of polls finds him doing slightly better42.8 to 51.7but still in a consistent slide since the end of July. The numbers are very polarized, but Republicans have always disapproved strongly of Biden the big difference here is erosion among Democrats and independents.
This reversal could have wide-ranging effects. Biden still hopes to pass a massive social-spending program, for which he needs uniform Democratic support. Depending on their understanding of the causes for the slide, members of Congress might defect. Bidens unpopularity may already have cost Democrats the Virginia governorship and nearly sunk Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey too. If Biden is this unpopular in a year, congressional Democrats will be entirely swamped in the midterms.
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How Do Americans View Bidens Handling Of The Pandemic And The Economy
Most Americans think Biden is handling the coronavirus pandemic far better than Trump. Sixty-two percent approve of how Biden has managed the U.S. response so far. Another 30 percent say they disapprove.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
The publics approval of Bidens actions far exceeds that earned by Trumps leadership during the pandemic. His highest approval rating was 18 points lower, at 44 percent in March 2020, the same month the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic and Trump labeled it a public health emergency. From there, his approval on handling the pandemic dropped as low as 37 percent, recovering slightly to 39 percent by the time he left office in January.
But Americans have less faith in Bidens ability to heal the nations wounded economy compared to Trump. While 46 percent of U.S. adults approve of how Biden has managed the economy, another 41 percent do not approve. During Trumps last days in office, half of Americans said they approved of the former presidents handling of the economy, a sentiment thatTrump leveraged throughout his presidency and in his 2020 campaign for a second term.
Keanu Adams, 25, of Vacaville, California, said he voted for Biden and hopes the president recognizes the country needs more than public health and economic fixes right now.
The nation needs to uproot systemic problems to address what is really wrong, Adams said.