China: Uk Need To Stand Up To Bullying Says Lord Patten
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Kim celebrated his 37th birthday by submitting a wish-list of new weapons including more accurate long-range nukes, super large warheads, spy satellites and a nuclear-powered submarine. The dictator, who has now been promoted to the highest rank of the Workers’ Party, is struggling to be heard outside his own country amid the current turmoil in the US. But experts say that if President-elect Joe Biden harbours any hopes of preventing Kim’s nuclear ambitions, now is the time to act after the tyrant dubbed the US his nations biggest enemy.
Sixth Nuclear Test And Aftermath: September 2017
On September 3, at 3:31 am UTC, the United States Geological Survey reported that it had detected a magnitude 6.3 earthquake in North Korea near the Punggye-ri test site. Given the shallow depth of the quake and its proximity to North Koreas primary nuclear weapons testing facility, experts concluded that the country had conducted a sixth nuclear weapon test since the country first exploded a nuclear device in 2006. North Korea claimed that they had tested a hydrogen bomb capable of being mounted on an ICBM. The independent seismic monitoring agency NORSAR estimated that the blast had a yield of around 120 kilotons. An official KCNA statement of September 3, also claimed North Koreas ability to conduct a super-powerful EMP attack.
On the same day, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis speaking on behalf of the White House, warned there would be a massive military response to any threat from North Korea against the United States, including Guam, or its allies.
Early on September 4, the Republic of Korea conducted a ballistic missile exercise that involved the Souths Hyunmoo ballistic missile and the F-15K fighter jets, which was billed to be in response to Norths detonation. The state news agency Yonhap said the Souths military had carried out a live-fire exercise simulating an attack on the Norths nuclear site, hitting designated targets in the East Sea.
Donald Trumps North Korea Gambit: What Worked What Didnt And Whats Next
The last four years proved once again that Kim Jing-un is rational and therefore able to be deterred not the madman with nukes that is so often portrayed and that he is sufficiently interested in talks to voluntarily halt nuclear and long-range missile tests while they were going on, to slow his march if not to halt it altogether.
Its easy to criticize Donald Trump on North Korea: the declarations of love for a brutal dictator, the disdain for details and history, the photo opportunities where the strategy should have been, but while the execution may have been lacking, he did attempt a new approach, and that offers important lessons for the incoming administration.
It did not get off to an auspicious start. During Trumps first year in office, Kim Jong-un tested his first intercontinental ballistic missiles, demonstrating the potential to reach the U.S. homeland for the first time, along with a slew of short and medium-range projectiles and what appeared to be his first hydrogen bomb.
But it was the summit with Donald Trump in Singapore in June 2018 that made history, as Kim Jong Un became the first North Korean leader to meet a sitting U.S. president a feat neither his father nor his grandfather achieved.
This article originally appeared on The National Interest.
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Winter Olympics Dtente And Further Developments: Januaryfebruary 2018
North and South Korea marched together in the Olympics opening ceremony and fielded a united women’s ice hockey team. As well as the athletes, North Korea sent an unprecedented high-level delegation, headed by Kim Yo-jong, sister of Kim Jong-un, and President Kim Yong-nam, and including performers like the Samjiyon Orchestra. The delegation passed along an invitation to President Moon to visit North Korea.
According to North Korea expert Sung-Yoon Lee, North Korea’s policy toward the Olympics is to enhance North Korea’s status: “One doesn’t need to be a genius to see that this is what North Korea does: After having created a war-like, crisis atmosphere, takes a small step back and there’s a collective sigh of relief that there’s no war. It does wonders for North Korea’s image.”
False alarms in Hawaii and Japan
Residents and tourists in the U.S. state of Hawaii were briefly thrown into a panic when an emergency alert was issued January 13, 2018, advising of an imminent ballistic missile threat. Another message was sent out about 40 minutes later describing the first alert as a false alarm.
Three days later in Japan, broadcasting agency NHK also accidentally sent an alert about a North Korean missile launch in error. The error was corrected in minutes.
2018 State of the Union Address
Speculation about attack on North Korea
The Implications Of A North Korean Open
A North Korean atmospheric nuclear test could well spark a rolling summer of 1914-style crisis.
As Donald Trumps threats against North Korea have accelerated this year, the North has responded with its characteristically over-the-top rhetoric. Recently, it threatened to fire nuclear weapons into the sea around the US territory of Guam, leading to this crisis most memorable public takeaway: the government of that island encouraged care in the use of conditioner post-strike, lest radioactive debris cleave to ones hair.
Last month, the North made another outlandish threat. This time it would test a nuclear device in the north Pacific. South Korean intelligence is hinting at yet another imminent North Korean nuclear test. Could this the first open-air nuclear test in decades? And would this serve as a casus belli for the administration of US President Donald Trump? I have suggested previously that Trump may be trying to bait North Korean leader Kim Jong Un into a provocation outrageous enough to justify the use of force. It certainly feels that way when Trump ad-libs unnecessarily provocative language like fire and fury or totally destroy North Korea. Trump himself seems decidedly against diplomacy with Pyongyang.
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Trump Threatens Fire And Fury Against North Korea If It Endangers Us
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BRIDGEWATER, N.J. President Trump threatened on Tuesday to unleash fire and fury against North Korea if it endangered the United States, as tensions with the isolated and impoverished nuclear-armed state escalated into perhaps the most serious foreign policy challenge yet of his administration.
In chilling language that evoked the horror of a nuclear exchange, Mr. Trump sought to deter North Korea from any actions that would put Americans at risk. But it was not clear what specifically would cross his line. Administration officials have said that a pre-emptive military strike, while a last resort, is among the options they have made available to the president.
North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States, Mr. Trump told reporters at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., where he is spending much of the month on a working vacation. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.
Referring to North Koreas volatile leader, Kim Jong-un, Mr. Trump said, He has been very threatening beyond a normal state, and as I said, they will be met with fire and fury, and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before.
Why The Us Military Never Wants To Bomb North Korea
Anything but that.
Key point: North Korea knows how to raise the costs for America.
The idea of retaliating against North Korea has, of course, been around for a long time. North Korea provokes South Korea, Japan, and the United States regularly. Several of those provocations were severe enough that military action would likely have enjoyed some global acceptance. In 1968, the North Koreans captured the USS Pueblo, a naval intelligence vessel, and held the crew for almost a year. In 1969, North Korea shot down a U.S. reconnaissance plane, killing the crew. In 1998, North Korea shot a missile over Japan. In 2010 North Korea sank a South Korean corvette and shelled a South Korean-held island, killing fifty. Yet in each case, the United States, South Korea, and Japan choose to defer. The reasons for that restraint are broadly still in place and will likely inhibit President Donald Trump as they have previous U.S. presidents:
1. Seoul is extremely vulnerable to North Korean counter-fire:
2. Trump would need the political approval of South Korea and Japan:
3. Such a strike would not be brief or surgical it could last days or even weeks:
4. We do not know what North Koreas red-lines are:
5. North Korea would almost certainly use human shields:
6. Such an airstrike would wreck Americas relationship with China, the most important bilateral relationship in world politics, for years, perhaps decades:
Image: Reuters.
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An Old Strategy On Weak Foundations
Though Washingtons enduring North Korea strategy has not been contained in a document passed down through administrations, it has remained remarkably consistent from Clinton through Trump. It could be summarized as: Negotiate an end to North Koreas nuclear weapons program through diplomatic and economic leverage, while maintaining regional stability and minimizing risk through multilateral diplomacy, military restraint, and extended deterrence guarantees to U.S. allies. Aside from some vague threats of military force, this strategy primarily relied on economic pressure and incentives as the leverage to achieve denuclearization, though diplomatically isolating or recognizing Pyongyang was also considered essential leverage.
Nevertheless, Washington remained trapped by these untenable assumptions, in part because of what discarding them would mean for larger priorities like regional stability, global non-proliferation, and relations with China. If Washington acknowledged that it did not have sufficient leverage to get the Kim regime to negotiate away its nuclear program, it could be seen as accepting North Korea as a nuclear-armed power or presenting military conflict as the only recourse. Either possibility was seen as politically unpalatable and unacceptably risky, particularly while North Koreas nuclear progress remained limited and hopes for denuclearization diplomacy continued.
North Korea Bomb: Trumps Trade Threat To China Not Seen As Credible
The US imported $463bn worth of goods from China in 2016. Cutting off trade with Beijing would trigger a protectionist spiral leading to a global recession
Donald Trump huddled with his national security advisers on Sunday to try to decide on a response to North Koreas sixth and most powerful nuclear test.
Pyongyang said it had detonated a hydrogen bomb, using nuclear fusion as well as fission, and the seismic data suggested a blast that was ten times as big as any of its previous tests.
Before meeting his advisors, Trump was asked if he was considering a military response. Well see, he replied.
However, his initial responses on Twitter suggested the key aspect of the US reaction would be a call on China and other trading partners to tighten the economic vice on North Korea.
The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea, Trump tweeted.
The threat was not seen as credible. In 2016, the US imported $463bn worth of goods from China, North Koreas biggest trade partner. Cutting off trade with Beijing would trigger a protectionist spiral that would create a global recession.
However, former officials and analysts said that much would depend on how China now reacted. Beijing had repeatedly warned the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, not to carry out another nuclear test.
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Sanctions On North Korea Trade With China
Since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, the UN Security Council had passed a number of resolutions that imposed various sanctions on the DPRK, including restrictions on economic activity. Nevertheless, North Korea’s gross domestic product grew by an estimated 3.9 percent in 2016, to about $28.5 billion, the fastest pace in 17 years the progress was largely attributed to continued trade with China, which accounted for more than 90% of North Korea’s international trade.
In late February 2017, following North Korea’s February 12 test of the Pukkuksong-2 medium-range ballistic missile, China, which regards its trade with North Korea and the putative missile threat to the U.S. as separate issues, said it would comply with UN Resolution 2321 and halt all coal imports from North Korea. The halt notwithstanding, in April 2017, China said that its trade with North Korean had expanded. In July 2017, China’s trade with North Korea, while the ban on North Korean coal was said to have slowed imports from the DPRK, was worth $456 million, up from $426 million in July 2016, the year-to-date trade being up 10.2 percent at $3.01 billion.
China has been opposed to secondary sanctions that may be imposed on Chinese firms that do business with North Korea.
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Beginning Of Peace Efforts
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On April 27, the two leaders met at the Joint Security Area, with Kim Jong-un crossing the MDL in South Korean territory, the first time a North Korean leader has done so. President Moon also briefly crossed into the North’s territory. Both Moon and Kim signed the Panmunjom Declaration, declaring the Korean conflict over and to sign a proper peace treaty by the end of the year. With that, Moon agreed to visit Pyongyang in the fall.
2018 Singapore summit
On March 8, in a surprise departure from the hostile dialogue during 2017, Trump announced that he would meet with leader Kim Jong-un, and the two would meet likely by May. Press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that “in the meantime, all sanctions and maximum pressure must remain.”North Korea accepts South Korea’s proposal to hold the high-level inter-Korean talks, which took place on March 29. On May 24, President Trump cancelled the planned meeting with Chairman Kim over “tremendous anger and open hostility” displayed by Kim. On June 1, President Trump reversed the cancellation and confirmed that the summit would take place on June 12 as planned.
