Six Theories Of Joe Bidens Crumbling Popularity
The presidents approval ratings keep falling. The question is why.
About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.
The biggest mystery in American politics right nowand perhaps the most consequential oneis how Joe Biden became so unpopular.
Biden began his presidency moderately popular: At the start, Quinnipiac Universitys polling found that 53 percent of Americans approved of him and 36 percent did not. Todays numbers are the mirror image: In a Quinnipiac poll released yesterday, 36 percent approve, while 53 percent disapprove. FiveThirtyEights average of polls finds him doing slightly better42.8 to 51.7but still in a consistent slide since the end of July. The numbers are very polarized, but Republicans have always disapproved strongly of Biden the big difference here is erosion among Democrats and independents.
This reversal could have wide-ranging effects. Biden still hopes to pass a massive social-spending program, for which he needs uniform Democratic support. Depending on their understanding of the causes for the slide, members of Congress might defect. Bidens unpopularity may already have cost Democrats the Virginia governorship and nearly sunk Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey too. If Biden is this unpopular in a year, congressional Democrats will be entirely swamped in the midterms.
Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
Trump Is A Barometer For Republican Views Of Supreme Court
A person holds a sign during a rally to protest the results of the election, in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, in Washington, U.S., December 12, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
The U.S. Supreme Court has been issuing rulings that tend to favor conservatives, but its approval ratings have dropped among Republicans as well as Democrats, according to an analysis by my Reuters colleagues and a recent Gallup poll, both released on July 28.
A year ago, 58% of Americans approved of the court, its highest rating in about 11 years, according to the poll. This year, the courts approval rating dipped to 49%, and a historical gap between Republicans and Democrats narrowed to nothing: Members of both parties have identical approval ratings of 51% .
The courts reputation has taken a hit among Republicans, despite it taking a sharp turn toward the right, both in terms of its membership and decisions.
Former President Donald Trump appointed three new justices since 2017, moving the court further to the right than it had been for decades. Republican approval of the court expectedly surged in Gallups polls after those appointments.
And, a recent Reuters analysis of the courts shadow docket rulings from the past 12 months found that the courts 6-3 conservative majority repeatedly favored religious groups and Trumps administration, while denying almost 100 other emergency applications by private individuals and groups.
You May Like: How To Contact The President Trump
Polls Put Trumps Approval Rating Lower
Despite the recent decline in Biden’s approval, Trump’s ratings were lower during his time in office.
“Biden’s approval rating has clearly taken a turn for the worse in the past several weeks, but he is still faring better than Trump at this point in their presidencies,” Burden said. “Trump had one of the lowest and steadiest approval ratings of any modern president.”
FiveThirtyEight put the polling average for Trump’s approval rating at 38.8% on Sept. 9, 2017, his first year in office. The lowest point of his term came on Dec. 16, 2017, with an average approval rate of 36.4%.
This claim is also wrong looking only at the YouGov poll.
YouGov reported Trumps approval rating never increased far above 40% and reached a term low of 34% in a poll conducted Nov. 10-14, 2017.
In other words, Trump’s low is well below Biden’s current level in YouGov polling.
Data Download: The Numbers You Need To Know Today
58 percent: The share of Americans who say their bigger concern is making sure that everyone who wants to vote can do so, per new NBC News poll.
38 percent: The share who say their bigger concern is making sure that no one votes who is not eligible to vote.
1.6 million: The number of valid signatures collected by backers of the recall election against California Gov. Gavin Newsom, per the secretary of states office.
$400 million: How much the recall election could cost, according to the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials.
$15 an hour: The new minimum wage for federal contractors, starting in January, under an executive order that President Biden is set to sign.
89: The number of people New York fell short by in its count to retain one of its House seats.
32,276,517: The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials.
576,763: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far, per the most recent data from NBC News. (Thats 474 more than yesterday morning.
230,768,454: The number of vaccine doses administered in the U.S.
26.5 percent: The share of Americans who are fully vaccinated
2: The number of days left for Biden to reach his 100-day vaccination goal.
Sahil Kapur notes that Bidens first 100 days have been shaped in some ways by the first 100 days of his Democratic predecessor.
How high should the capital gains tax be? Heres what some experts have to say.
Recommended Reading: How Can I Contact Trump
Sanders Wont Condemn Sinema Harassment Amid Spending Bill Spat
American voters are steadily losing confidence in President Biden, whose approval rating has hit a new low since he took office while former President Donald Trumps approval rating is on the rise.
According to a new poll released by Gallup on Wednesday, only 43 percent of Americans approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president, dropping from 49 percent in August.
The poll, which surveyed 1,005 adults across the nation from Sept. 1 to 17, found that 53 percent of respondents disapprove of Bidens job.
Bidens approval rating has been in free fall for several months, while his disapproval is growing. In June, Gallup found approval to be around 56 percent with disapproval at 42 percent.
His approval is down 14 points since he took office in January.
Overall, American voters are largely dissatisfied with how the country is being governed, with 69 percent saying they disapprove and only 30 percent approving.
Wednesdays poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
As disapproval grows, Trump is seeing a rise in his own approval rating, overtaking Biden by approximately 2 percentage points, a separate poll found.
Forty-eight percent of American voters were found to have a positive view of Trump, while only 46 percent said they favored Biden, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey .
Trumps Approval Rating Dropping Among Independents Republicans
As part of a January national survey of likely voters, Data for Progress finds that a majority of voters support efforts to impeach the president following a deadly insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th. On the 12th of January, House Democrats officially introduced articles of impeachment against the president for his role in inciting the deadly attack, and a vote on impeachment is expected next week. As part of the same survey, we also measured the presidents job approval ratings among likely voters. We find that disapproval of the president has grown, with many Republicans and Trump 2020 voters now signaling that they disapprove of the job hes doing.
Don’t Miss: Contact The President Trump
President Trump Hits Highest Approval Rating In History
President Donald Trump has hit his highest approval rating ever, according to two Wall Street Journal and NBC polls.
Despite the relentless negative mainstream media coverage, Trumps approval rating with the American public continues to soar to historic levels.
In the same week Trump was falsley accused of treason by hysterical left-wing journalists and Democrats, Trumps approval rating moved up another 3 points.
The more Trump gets criticized by the media, the more his base seems to rally behind him, one Democratic pollster told NBC.
Information Liberation reports: This is what getting BTFOd looks like:
Trump hasnt even begun to fight back. He told Tucker Carlson last week hes open to declassifying evidence of the deep states crimes in the coming months .
NBC Snooze and the War Street Journal both decided to bury the lead in their coverage of their own poll.
Regardless, here some of the highlights from NBC News:
the new NBC/WSJ poll finds the presidents approval rating among Republican voters at 88 percent the highest of his presidency and 29 percent of all voters strongly approve of his job, which is another high for Trump in the poll.
And 50 percent of voters support Trumps handling of the economy, which is up 8 points from October.
Note, the economy is the top issue going into midterms:
A month ago, the top combined responses were health care , the economy and jobs , guns and taxes and spending .
Approval Index1500 Likely Voters +/
Some readers wonder how we come up with our job approval ratings for the president since they often dont show as dramatic a change as some other pollsters do. It depends on how you ask the question and whom you ask.
To get a sense of longer-term job approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology .
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
Also Check: Was Melania Trump A Prostitute
Approval For Gop At 50 Per Cent For First Time Against Former President
Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile
Trump says he is beyond seriously considering 2024 presidential run
The NBC News poll found that Republican support for the party was greater than the support for the former president, who was favoured by 44 per cent of Republicans.
The figure for registered Republicans in favour of the party over the former president, in comparison, was at 50 per cent.
It was the first time in almost two years that support for the Republican party was greater than that for Mr Trump, NBC News reported, and the first time support for the GOP reached 50 per cent against the former president.
Among all respondents to the poll, Mr Trump was favourable for 32 per cent, and unfavourable for 55 per cent a slight worsening of Januarys figures, when the former president was 40 per cent favourable and 53 percent unfavourable among all registered voters.
When compared to the poll for November, Mr Trump was also 9 per cent less favourable and 2 per cent more unfavourable among all respondents to the NBC News poll.
In fact, a number of congressional Republicans have visited Mar-a-Lago to meet with the former president, as well as to seek his endorsement, in the 100 days since Joe Bidens presidency began.
Among all adults, as few as 21 per cent said so.
Poll: Trumps Approval Rating With Gop Voters Rebounds To 81%
Former President Donald Trumps popularity with Republicans has rebounded with an 81% approval rate, according to a Morning Consult/Politico poll.
The poll indicated that approval for Trump among GOP voters has risen by 5% since it hit 76% in mid-January following the Capitol riot and just before the House of Representatives voted to impeach the former president.
Then-President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump on stage after speaking to supporters at Joint Base Andrews before boarding Air Force One for his last time as President on Jan. 20, 2021 in Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.
GOP women led the way with 15% more of them indicating their support for Trump than had earlier in January.
Of those Republicans polled, 50% also believe that Trump should continue to have a major role in the party, an increase of nine percentage points since the Capitol riot.
Since his departure from public life, Trump has said little about any political plans but has reportedly discussed the creation of a third political force in American politics, called the Patriot Party. Although a party calling itself the MAGA Patriot Party filed papers with the Federal Election Commission Monday, the Trump campaign disavowed any affiliation with the organization on Tuesday.
Don’t Miss: Jobs Trump Created
Donald Trump Struggles To Hurt Joe Biden From The Outside Looking In
Donald Trump‘s incessant criticism of Joe Biden might delight his supporters, but seems to be doing little to alter wider opinion of his successor or to boost his own image beyond those who already back him.
Trump mentioned Biden and his administrationbranding this “a complete and total catastrophe”29 times at his rally in Wellington, Ohio, on Saturday.
This follows a trend of harsh words leveled at Biden by the former president, who has regularly critiqued the Democratic commander-in-chief throughout his tenure so farmarking a continuation of insults slung during the election campaign.
But while Trump’s inflammatory words garner attention, and energize those who remain loyal to him, polling indicates a limited impact from this barrage against Biden.
The president’s approval rating has remained over 50 percent throughout his time in the White House so far, according to a FiveThirtyEight tracker accounting for numerous polls. At present, it sits at 52.7 percent.
YouGov/The Economist polling, meanwhile, has tracked the popularity of both Biden and Trump.
Biden’s figures from the first survey taken after his inauguration on January 20 to the latest polling remain largely consistent.
In the latest polling, carried out June 20 to 21, Biden’s numbers were similar.
While Biden’s numbers have remained similar, Trump’s have also plateaued.