Trump Can’t Decide If He Won Or Lost 2020 Election
Based on his contradicting statements, it seems former President Donald Trump can’t make up his mind as to whether or not he won or lost the 2020 presidential election.
Trump has repeatedly made baseless claims alleging that the election was “rigged” and that he should have won with the 72 million ballots cast for him and running mate Mike Pence.
The belief that the election was stolen from Trump became the grounds on which a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol building on January 6, 2021 in an effort to block Congress from certifying the electoral college votes, which would go on to cement President Joe Biden‘s victory with 306 votes to Trump’s 232.
Although Trump has tried to distance himself from the rioters, he has continued to assert that he won the 2020 election. But the former president has also admitted defeat in a number of public comments.
Most recently, in an interview published by The Atlantic on Monday, Trump discussed his relationship with the president of South Korea, saying at one point, “when I didn’t win the election, he had to be the happiest.”
He also acknowledged his loss momentarily during a December 2021 interview with The Victory Channel’s FlashPoint, when he discussed the construction of the border wall between the U.S. and Mexico.
“Shockingly, we were supposed to win easily at 64 million votes, and we got 75 million votes, and we didn’t win,” Trump said.
Has Anyone Tried This Before
The last time a closely contested election involved a battle over electors was in 2000 between Al Gore and George W Bush. That was a fight in one state, Florida, where the difference between the candidates was just a few hundred votes. Eventually, the US Supreme Court stepped in and halted any further review – and Bush became president.
For a disputed election involving multiple states you have to go back to the 1876 race between Republican Rutherford B Hayes and Democrat Samuel Tildon.
In that episode, contested results in Louisiana, South Carolina and Florida meant no candidate was able to win a majority in the Electoral College. The deadlock threw the election to the US House of Representatives, which ultimately sided with Hayes, who like Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016, won fewer votes nationally than his defeated opponent.
Trump May Have Something Else In Mind
This would be Trumps path to a legitimate victory. But he may also have something else up his sleeve, based on the expectation that mail votes will be more Democratic-leaning while in-person votes will be more Republican-leaning.
Trump has heavily implied that he hopes to declare victory on election night and then, if slower counts of mail ballots tip the key states toward Biden, he will attempt to disparage those mail votes as fraudulent or illegitimate.
Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd.
Donald J. Trump
If Trump goes down this path, he will be trying to erase millions of legitimately cast mail votes in an attempt to effectively steal the election from Biden.
You might be comforted by the idea that state election officials are too professional to let this happen. But the president is technically named by the Electoral College and those electors themselves can be named by state legislatures, which in several key states are controlled by Republicans.
Theres a catch for Trump, though. Due to the differing ways states carry out their vote counts, the scenario that has been called a red mirage a seeming Republican lead on election night that gradually vanishes as more Democratic mail votes are slowly counted is only likely to occur in a few key swing states this year. Most notably, its the classic trio of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which have Republican legislatures.
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Biden Improved On Clintons Gains
Many Trump supporters have expressed disbelief that Biden won, and by such margins. But Bidens campaign won by persuading just enough swing voters, making gains in unexpected states and rebuilding the coveted blue wall that toppled in 2016.
According to CNNs national exit poll, 94% of self-described Democrats voted for Biden in 2020 compared to Hillary Clintons 89% of self-described Democrats in 2016, and 89% of self-described liberals, compared to Clintons 84%.
Bidens victory was really won on the basis of support from moderates and independents, though. He received 64% of votes cast by self-described moderates, 12 points ahead of Clinton, and won independents by 13 points a group that Clinton lost by 4 points.
Biden continued to build on the groundwork laid out by Clinton in historically red states like Arizona and Georgia. Clinton did not win Arizona or Georgia in 2016, but she did perform better than Obama in both. The swing toward Biden in those states was more than double his national swing, CNN reported.
Wasserman said he predicted prior to the election that Arizona and Georgia would flip, but the similar states of Texas and Florida would not due to their Hispanic electorate.
Does Any Of This Suggest That Under
No. This analysis finds that polls about public opinion on issues can be useful and valid, even if the poll overstates or understates a presidential candidates level of support by margins seen in the 2020 election. But this does not mean that pollsters should quit striving to have their surveys accurately represent Republican, Democratic and other viewpoints. Errors in the partisan composition of polls can go in both directions. As recently as 2012, election polls slightly underestimated Barack Obamas support.
Despite cautions from those inside and outside the profession, polling will continue to be judged, fairly or not, on the performance of preelection polls. A continuation of the recent underestimation of GOP electoral support would certainly do further damage to the fields reputation. More fundamentally, the goal of the public opinion research community is to represent the publics views, and anything within the professions control that threatens that goal should be remedied, even if the consequences for estimates on topics other than election outcomes are small. Pew Research Center is exploring ways to ensure we reach the correct share of Republicans and that they are comfortable taking our surveys. We are also trying to continuously evaluate whether Republicans and Trump voters or indeed, Democrats and Biden voters in our samples are fully representative of those in the population.
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A 10 Percent Chance Isnt Zero And Theres A Chance Of A Recount Too
ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / FABIO BUONOCORE
Its tempting to write this story in the form of narrative fiction: On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed mail ballots in Pennsylvania You know, that kind of thing. But given the stakes in this election, I think its important to be prosaic and sober-minded instead.
So lets state a few basic facts: The reasons that President Trumps chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero:
- As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected than the margins in the national popular vote.
- More specifically, Joe Bidens lead in Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average.
- Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but theres no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about.
- While a lot of theories about why Trump can win are probably wrong, systematic polling errors do occur, and its hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance.
- There is some chance that Trump could win illegitimately. To a large extent, these scenarios are beyond the scope of our forecast.
- Theres also some chance of a recount or an Electoral College tie , according to our forecast.
Opinionlegally Trump Doesn’t Have To Concede Symbolically It’s Vital He Does Anyway
The late 19th century was a time of massive change in American life, including widespread industrialization and social upheaval. After the Civil War, Republicans locked down control of the presidency and Congress. That didnt begin to change until the near-loss of popular-vote winner Samuel Tilden in 1876 to President Rutherford B. Hayes, in one of the tightest elections ever, ultimately decided by a special commission. By the 1880s, close party competition had returned with narrow margins in both houses of Congress and even a tied Senate at one point.
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Trump Needs Another Batch Of Electoral Votes From Contests Where Biden Has Bigger Leads To Put Him Over The Top
If all those states where Biden leads by about 1 to 3 points do end up flipping to Trump but Biden wins everywhere polls show him up by more this is what the map would look like. Trump is still 11 electoral votes short of victory.
So a generalized polling error of 3 points wouldnt be enough for Trump. He also needs to come up with 11 electoral votes from places where Bidens lead is bigger.
Heres the next tier of competitive states, per FiveThirtyEights polling averages on October 28:
- Minnesota : Biden +9.1
The clearest opportunity for a clean win for Trump is in Pennsylvania which is the closest of these states and has the most electoral votes of them.
Trump, of course, won Pennsylvania last time. But polls in 2016 didnt show him behind by as much as he is now.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania, his path to victory is more challenging. Nevada is polling almost as close as Pennsylvania, but its a small state with just six electoral votes at stake, so Trump would need to win somewhere else as well to get the 11 electoral votes he needs.
Winning just Michigan would get Trump over the top, but Bidens poll lead is 8.3 percentage points there. Winning just Wisconsin or just Minnesota would get Trump to 269 electoral votes, but if he doesnt win Nebraskas Second District as well, then the election would be tied at 269-269 and would be decided by the House of Representatives.
Visualizing A Closely Divided Electorate
Election polling in closely divided electorates like those in the U.S. right now demands a very high degree of precision from polling. Sizable differences in the margin between the candidates can result from relatively small errors in the composition of the sample. Changing a small share of the sample can make a big difference in the margin between two candidates.
To visualize how few voters need to change to affect the margin between the candidates, consider a hypothetical poll of 1,000 adults. One version shows Biden prevailing over Trump by 12 percentage points , while the version on the right shows the accurate election results. Biden voters are shown as blue squares and Trump voters as red squares , but the strip in the middle shows the voters who change from the left figure to the right one.
The version on the right shows the actual 2020 election results nationally a Biden advantage of a little more than 4 percentage points. The poll on the right was created by slightly increasing the representation of Trump voters and decreasing the representation of Biden voters, so that overall, the poll changes from a 12-point Biden advantage to a 4-point Biden advantage. This adjustment, in effect, flips the vote preferences of some of the voters. How many voters must be changed to move the margin from 12 points to about 4 points?
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Seven Winning Tactics From Bush V Gore
Barbara Perry, the Miller Center’s director of Presidential Studies, mines the Center’s just-released oral history from Theodore Olson in TIME
In the plethora of challenges to state election procedures making their way to the U.S. Supreme Court, the specter of Bush v. Gore haunts the judicial landscape. The litigation over Floridas determinative 2000 vote count resulted in two oral arguments before the highest court in the land, and placed George W. Bush in the Oval Office. With nearly 400 election-related lawsuits filed this year, many over the question of which votes will be counted, a close result on Election Day could once again leave the Supreme Court in a position to issue a ruling that determines who occupies the White House for the next four years.
Bushs lead counsel in both 2000 cases, renowned Supreme Court advocate Theodore B. Olson, just released to UVAs Miller Center an oral-history interview about the crucial role he played in that astounding Supreme Court drama. As the nation faces the possibility of another contested Presidential election, Olsons unique insights provide a roadmap for attorneys who might find themselves pleading the case of who should win the Presidency. Here are seven tactics, in his own words, that he used to win the litigation.
How Much Can The Balance Of These Two Scenarios Affect Measures Of Opinion On Issues
The adjustment from the tilted version to the balanced version , makes very little difference in the balance of opinion on issue questions. Across a set of 48 opinion questions and 198 answer categories, most answer categories changed less than 0.5%. The average change associated with the adjustment was less than 1 percentage point, and approximately twice that for the margin between alternative answers . The maximum change observed across the 48 questions was 3 points for a particular answer and 5 points for the margin between alternative answers.
One 3-point difference was on presidential job approval, a measure very strongly associated with the vote. In the balanced version, 39 percent approved of Trumps job performance, while 58 percent disapproved. In the tilted version, 36 percent approved of Trumps performance and 60 percent disapproved. Two other items also showed a 3-point difference on one of the response options. In the balanced version, 54% said that it was a bigger problem for the country that people did not see racism that was occurring, compared with 57% among the tilted version. Similarly, in the balanced version, 38% said that the U.S. had controlled the coronavirus outbreak as much as it could have, compared with 35% who said this in the tilted version. All other questions tested showed smaller differences.
The complete set of comparisons among the 48 survey questions are shown in the topline at the end of this report.
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We Asked The Leading Independent And Republican Candidates For Governor If Bidens Win Was Fraudulent
Former President Donald Trump insists without evidence that the election he lost in 2020 was stolen from him. That belief is endemic in his Republican Party. So we asked the GOPs leading candidates for Oregon governor where they stood on Trumps conspiracy claims to excuse his defeatand whether they would seek his endorsement. The answers radically differentiate the candidates.
We asked: Did Joe Biden legitimately win the 2020 presidential election?
Former state Sen. Betsy Johnson
Yes. Joe Biden won the election.
State Rep. Christine Drazan
Im disappointed the press is apparently still obsessed with litigating the 2020 election. My campaign is about serving Oregonians and reversing our decade of decline under Democratic leadership. Its about fixing our schools, keeping our communities safe, and putting an end to Gov. Browns top-down mandates. Biden won. Im focused on the here and now, not an election from two years ago. I encourage the press to do the same.
Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam
West Linn political consultant Bridget Barton
She answered the second question, but not this one.
Salem oncologist Dr. Bud Pierce
Pierce is on vacation this week, his campaign said.
We asked: Are you seeking Trumps endorsement? Will you invite him to campaign with you in Oregon if he endorses you?
Id love to add President Trump to our long list of endorsements, and I look forward to sharing a rally stage with him in Oregon in the near future.
Gsa Delays Certifying Biden As President
Although all major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, the head of the General Services Administration , Trump appointee Emily W. Murphy, refused for over two weeks to certify Biden as the president-elect. Without formal GSA certification or “ascertainment” of the winner of the election, the official transition process was delayed. On November 23, Murphy acknowledged Biden as the winner and said the Trump administration would begin the formal transition process. Trump said he had instructed his administration to “do what needs to be done” but did not concede, and indicated he intended to continue his fight to overturn the election results.
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Talking Transitions: Perspectives For First
This three-hour event investigated a key moment in every presidency
The Miller Center joined the Partnership for Pubic Service’s Center for Presidential Transition to explore safe and effective presidential transition to first-term and second-term administrations. The event featured perspectives on transition planning, managing transitions during crises, and the complexities of shifting from campaigning to governing. Appearing were experts such as Joshua Bolten, Andy Card, Denis McDonough, Mack McLarty, Stephen Hadley, Lisa Monaco, John Podesta, Barbara Perry, Melody Barnes, Alexis Herman, Valerie Jarrett, Karen Hughes, and Margaret Spellings.
Biden Team Already Working Toward Transition
Biden will be inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, whether Trump acknowledges his win as legitimate or not. Biden has already begun the process of transitioning to the countrys highest office.
Though Trump has not formally conceded, his administration has granted the new administration access to intelligence briefings, office space, secure computers and other government services, USA TODAY previously reported. Trump tweeted Nov. 23 that the move was made at his recommendation.
The announcement, made by Emily Murphy of the General Services Administration, allocated over $6 million to Bidens transition team for hiring and other transition-related expenses. Since then, Biden has made a number of Cabinet picks, including his chief of staff, Treasury secretary, director of national intelligence, head of the Department of Homeland Security, ambassador to the United Nations, climate change envoy, secretary of State, Defense secretary and Health and Human Services secretary.
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