Trumps Survival After Scandals
More than a year and a half since Trump left office, 58 percent of Americans hold an unfavorable view of him, according to this latest poll. That includes 89 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independents. But 83 percent of Republicans say they still favor Trump, along with roughly a third of all Americans.
Trumps favorability among the GOP outpaces that of a handful of other Republicans who are considered potential rivals for a White House bid in 2024:
According to GOP strategist and conservative pollster Whit Ayres, most Republicans are also open to having a new candidate who carries less baggage than they believe Trump carries as their nominee in 2024.
It all depends on who the alternatives are, Ayres said. Most alternatives arent nationally known here.
Trumps political resilience is unlike anything else in U.S. presidential history, said Jeffrey Engel, who directs the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
As with everything with Donald Trump, history gives us no guide, Engel said.
One comparison is tough to ignore, though todays political dynamics are nearly opposite. In 1974, after an investigation uncovered that President Richard Nixons reelection campaign had bugged the phones at the Democratic National Committee headquarters, Nixon resigned in disgrace before he could be impeached. He retreated from public life and partially rebuilt his reputation in foreign policy during the decades that followed, Engel said.
Center For Religion And Civic Culture
This piece was originally published by Religion News Service.
As a student of American evangelicalism, I am frequently asked how Christians can support Donald Trump. I stop myself from going into lecture mode. Most people want a sound bite, not a disquisition.
So heres the short answer: Ever since 1980, when Ronald Reagan told a Dallas gathering of 15,000 evangelicals, you cant endorse me but I want you to know that I endorse you, white evangelicals have voted for Republicans, who mostly promise to enact their agenda.
Mostly theyve been disappointed. In November 2016, when Trump won election to the White House, abortion was still legal, gay couples had the right to marry, government regulations inhibited the free market and the U.S. embassy to Israel remained in Tel Aviv.
Trump promised to change all that.
Despite his personal shortcomings, evangelicals believed him. He selected a solid Christian as his running mate, and his track record as a businessman proved he got things done.
God uses imperfect messengers, evangelicals reasoned, and if King David an adulterer who arranged to have his partners husband killed could still accomplish great good, why not the 45th president?
But here is another answer to the question of why evangelicals support Trump: They dont, or at least not all of them.
Our goal was to educate reporters for the 2018 midterm election where white evangelicals again voted overwhelmingly Republican and beyond.
We used three sorting criteria.
If You Still Support Donald Trump Today I Instantly Know 8 Things About You
If 2016 taught us all anything, it is that anyone truly can become President. There is absolutely no shame in admitting that you voted for Trump, despite his divisive rhetoric and outlandish behavior, hoping that he would shape up and deliver on his promises to save your jobs and take care of your family. We get it, you were desperate and looking for a BIG change. Trump was your lottery ticket you know you are not going to winbut you might.
Since 2016, countless conservative Americans have jumped off the Trump wagon and quit the Republican Party, and many more have re-registered as either Democrat, Independent or Libertarian. That explains why Trumps approval rating among Republican voters is in the high 80 to 90% range the only ones left today are the true believers and tribal loyalists. .
This article is not for the Trump voters who have since bailed on him this is for all of you who continue to shamelessly make excuses for his immature behavior and will defend him to the death. If you still think Trump is a great President, then I can humbly assume the following things about you:
You dont want a President to govern for you, you want a king to rule over you.
You have no moral authority and are not really a Christian.
You are probably a racist, even if you dont realize it.
Racism: a) The belief in superiority of one race over another. b) Hatred or intolerance of another race or races. c) a policy, system of government, etc., based upon or fostering discrimination.
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The Ukraine War Cuts Many Ways
While most of those I encountered had relatively clear views about domestic issues, the Ukraine War was another matter. That conflict perplexes many in the heartland because they are not sure what it means for America or how it affects them personally. I didnt encounter anyone who had a positive view of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Everyone sees him as a thug who terrorizes his own people and destabilizes global affairs. But they are not sure how the war will play out and what US involvement means for their lives.
In the short-run, the Ukrainian conflict has been a boon to American farmers. With Ukraine grain blocked from the world market by Russia, grain prices have gone way up. Although American grocery shoppers are paying higher prices, US farmers are selling their stored wheat and corn at record levels. Of course, they recognize some of their financial gains are being lost at the grocery store and gas pumps, and through higher inflation on a wide range of farm costs. But U.S. agriculture is doing well due to grain supply restrictions.
How Rational Ignorance Shapes Our Politics
To understand why so many voted to re-elect Trump after four years of historic political turmoil featuring a failed pandemic response, a devastating economic shock and a crisis in racial justice its necessary to understand the forces that propelled him to victory in 2016.
In recent publications, Berkeley scholars have suggested that Trump won with an unconventional coalition of white working class and middle-class Americans who were motivated by resentment: The culture and economy gave them no recognition and no respect for their work. Their industries were changing, their jobs were shifting overseas or lost to automation. They perceive that Black, Latinx and Asian people, and immigrants, are advancing at their expense.
Trump supporters massed for a rally in Washington, D.C., days after Democrat Joe Biden emerged as the winner of the U.S. presidential race.
But some Berkeley scholars suggested that for many voters, support for Trump or any leader is a more passive choice that takes shape in a subrational sphere.
Gabriel Lenz, an expert in political psychology, is the author of Follow the Leader? How Voters Respond to Politicians Performance and Policies . He sees political opinion shaped by a force that is almost prosaic: an apathetic lack of awareness.
Gabriel Lenz, UC Berkeley political scientist
Lenz and other political scientists call it rational ignorance.
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Illinois Governors Race Poll Shows Darren Bailey With A Big Lead Over Richard Irvin
In fact, its almost like none of it happened or matters. Large numbers of Illinois Republicans still put Trump on a pedestal alongside arguably the partys most revered president of the 20th Century, Ronald Reagan, a product of downstate Tampico.
One of the big stories from this poll is it really shows Trumps continued hold on Republican primary voters, said Jim Williams, a polling analyst with Public Policy Polling, the North Carolina-based pollster that conducted the Sun-Times/WBEZ survey on June 6 and 7.
Nationally, Trumps grip on the Republican Party has come under question, particularly after he whiffed in his high-profile primary endorsements in Georgia, Nebraska, Idaho and North Carolina, where he failed to secure reelection for controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorn.
But the Land of Lincoln is solid Trump turf for Illinois Republicans, the Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll suggests.
I know theres been some speculation over the past several months as these primaries have played out whether or not Donald Trump and those Republican primary voters are still in lockstep with each other, Williams said. I think at least on the results of this poll, were seeing a lot of indications that they are.
Why They Still Support Trump
What began as a reluctant willingness to defend the former president soon became an ingrained habit.
About the author: Peter Wehner is a contributing writer at The Atlantic, a senior fellow at the Trinity Forum, and the author of The Death of Politics: How to Heal Our Frayed Republic After Trump.
The seven public hearings by the House committee investigating the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, have made the task of dot connecting easy: Americas 45th president oversaw and directed a multipart plan to violently overturn the 2020 election. Texts and testimonies of those in Donald Trumps inner orbit have shattered every excuse that the former presidents supporters had publicly broadcast since that awful, searing day.
Which raises an important and intriguing question: How are those supporters responding now?
It depends on the Trump supporter, of course. For some right-wing zealots, who have an enormous stake in keeping the Big Lie alive, the reflex is to attack the committee as crazed and media-enabled and abusing Constitutional rights. For those somewhat less delirious, the reaction is to mock and dismiss committee members, most especially Representative Liz Cheney. Still others have avoided watching the January 6 hearings. They have other, more important things to do, as one person put it to me. Hear no evil, see no evil.
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Question10 Overall Do You Think Donald Trump Has Had A Mainly Positive Or Mainly Negative Impact On
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoPositive 43% 85% 7% 46% 47% 38% 36% 53%Negative 49 9 88 46 44 55 60 37DK/NA 8 6 5 8 9 7 4 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspPositive 38% 39% 47% 47% 54% 42% 48% 12% 52%Negative 50 53 46 49 39 50 45 85 39DK/NA 12 8 6 3 7 8 8 4 10
Question8 Would You Like To See Donald Trump Run For President In 2024 Or Not
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoYes 35% 78% 4% 35% 40% 30% 24% 53%No 58 16 94 58 51 64 71 41DK/NA 7 6 2 7 8 5 6 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspYes 29% 37% 40% 37% 50% 37% 43% 9% 33%No 63 56 55 57 44 57 51 89 58DK/NA 8 8 5 6 6 6 6 2 8
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Why Would You Still Support Trump
I use common sense when deciding who should be the leader of the United States of America. The hearings about Donald Trumps activity during the January 6 riot on the Capitol is really happening. Many of Trumps followers still believe the election was rigged even after most of his administration and his daughter have all testified that he had lost the election. Psychiatrists believe Trump is mentally ill and if he runs in 2024, it will be a threat to democracy. How can Trump followers believe whatever he says? Trump has been a lying, corrupt, cheating scoundrel who has been ripping off everyone for his entire adult life. He was a high school bully and a spoiled brat. He claims he is pro-life and is against illegal immigration. Ask him how many abortions with mistresses he has paid for, or how many illegal, underpaid immigrants working for him? He also worships dictators and loves racists. The media is not against Trump. The only reason Fox News does not say anything bad about Trump is because he owns them. How can a despicable man sway so many people? Are you all a bunch of lemmings? Trump lives in a parallel universe that is not reality.
Question5 Is Your Opinion Of Donald Trump Favorable Unfavorable Or Haven’t You Heard Enough About Him
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoFavorable 39% 86% 3% 38% 43% 35% 32% 55%Unfavorable 52 10 91 49 46 57 63 35Hvn't hrd enough 5 2 4 6 5 4 2 4REFUSED 5 2 1 7 5 4 4 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspFavorable 26% 41% 45% 47% 52% 42% 47% 7% 38%Unfavorable 55 53 48 49 38 51 45 83 49Hvn't hrd enough 10 3 3 1 3 4 3 5 9REFUSED 8 4 4 2 6 3 5 5 4
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Why Do So Many Americans Continue To Support Donald Trump In A Word: Authoritarianism
Washington Post columnist Michael Gerson recently asked the question that baffles countless people about Trumps supporters: How can you defend a president who is a danger to democracy? Stated more broadly, why do so many Americans support Donald Trump who not only is singularly unqualified for office, but who presents a clear danger to our democracy? Appropriately, Gerson says the issue would benefit from psychological study.
In fact, over the last six-plus decades that study has largely been done. Social science has studied both authoritarian leaders, and people who support such leaders. Clear answers have emerged, although we are addressing only a few that Gerson raises. For example, the motivations of the wealthy conservative funders Gerson mentions are not the same as the evangelicals, who are Trumps largest group of supporters. The overriding answer of why these people support Trump can be stated briefly, albeit bluntly: There are a lot of Americans who do not care for democracy . They do not mind that he fails to follow the Constitution, or that he poses a danger to democracy. In fact, surveys of these people show they would prefer a demagogic autocrat who will stomp out the rot, which they believe infects society. Because most Americans see the world differently, this finding may be difficult to accept. It is, however, based on solid science.
Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President
If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.
Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.
Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.
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The Road To Renewal Is Economic And Spiritual
Steven Hayward speaks at a UC Berkeley event in 2017.
Conservative author Steven Hayward, a Berkeley Law lecturer and visiting scholar at Berkeleys Institute of Governmental Studies, looks to the past for a guide to the future. The late 1960s and early 70s were a time of upheaval in the U.S., he said, and the nation was shaken by assassinations, bombings, riots and campus unrest. Eventually, though, much of the fury burned itself out.
Hayward believes that many working class people embraced Trump because he seemed to understand their sense of being left behind. But like other scholars, he suggested the Biden administration will be more conventional, bringing a calm that could reduce the exhausting polarization and conflict of the Trump presidency.
Several scholars, however, suggested that Democrats hold some responsibility for the repairing the cultural divide because they helped to cause it. They have increasingly lost a sense of alliance with people in rural America and the declining industrial regions, said Berkeley sociologist Neil Fligstein, and as a result, theyre seen as distant, arrogant elites.
Neil Fligstein, UC Berkeley sociologist and director of the Center for Culture, Organization, and Politics.
Jadhav, meanwhile, goes beyond the political and economic to something nearly spiritual.
At the same time, he sees an essential need for engagement between coastal people and heartland people, metropolitan people and rural people.
Question23 Do You Consider What Happened At The Us Capitol On January 6th An Attack On The Government Or Not
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoYes/Attack on gov't 59% 29% 93% 56% 53% 66% 65% 49%No 35 66 5 40 42 29 32 44DK/NA 5 5 3 5 5 5 3 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspYes/Attack on gov't 63% 64% 55% 56% 46% 63% 55% 83% 57%No 31 30 42 39 49 32 40 13 39DK/NA 7 6 2 5 5 5 5 4 4
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