Trump And Biden Both Still Have Pathways To Victory
It takes 270 Electoral College votes to win the White House. NBC has yet to make calls in more than a half-dozen crucial states, and thousands of votes including rafts of mail-in votes in some states and counties have yet to be tallied up.
Both candidates can envision various pathways to 270 votes, based on the states that have yet to be won.
Trump, for example, could hit that target by scoring wins in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. Biden is also hoping to win Pennsylvania but pathways to the White House are still available to him if he loses the Keystone State and even Wisconsin.
The former vice president could, for instance, win if he carries Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan assuming he wins at least one vote from Maine, which is considered highly likely.
Here are the states that are still too early, or too close, for NBC to call:
Trump Wins Back Independents Biden Loses Ground With Women
Both candidates largely hold onto voters within their own parties. Ninety-three percent of Democrats support Biden, along with 4% of self-described Republicans. And 89% of Republicans support Trump, along with 2% of Democrats.
But Trump has regained an edge with those who identify as independents a bloc key to his 2016 win in Iowa. According to National Election Pool exit polling published by CNN, independent voters favored Trump 51% to 38% over Democrat Hillary Clinton that year.
In the Registers September Iowa Poll, Biden led with independents 50% to 38%. But today, Trump wins them back and leads 49% to 35%.
I think that the key to what’s happening with President Trump is that he is leading with independents, Selzer said. That is a group that in Iowa in our September poll looked like it was swinging to Joe Biden, and it’s come back to be a Trump asset.
In addition to fading with independents, Biden has lost ground with women. In September, he held a 20-point lead among women, which balanced out Trumps 21-point lead among men. But today, Bidens lead with women has shrunk to 9 percentage points, 50% to 41%.
We saw a huge gender gap that benefited Biden in September, Selzer said. And while there is still a big gap among men theyre going for Trump by a 24-point margin it’s just a 9-point margin for Biden with women. And so there’s just an imbalance there. Before, we saw mirror images of each other.
Biden Projected To Win Delaware Maryland Massachusetts And New Jersey
Democratic nominee Joe Biden is projected to win electoral votes in Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey, according to the NBC News Decision Desk.
Those four states would give him 38 electoral votes, adding to his projected win in Vermont with three electoral votes.
The states each have the following number of electoral votes:
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Polls Show Donald Trump Is A Republican Favorite For 2024
Several polls have found that Donald Trump’s supporters are still rooting for him. He was the top contender in the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll in March and his support rose in the following CPAC straw poll in July to 70% a 15% jump from March .
Perhaps unsurprisingly, it is primarily Republicans who believe Trump should return to office. An August Quinnipiac poll found that more than 70% of Republicans think a 2024 Trump ticket would be beneficial to America, while 95% of Democrats are against it, Newsweek reported. Around 60% of Independents think Trump should not run. A similar poll conducted by Echelon Insights and the Washington Examiner found that 60% of registered voters don’t want Trump to go through with a third campaign, but 70% of Republican participants said they would vote for Trump if he were on their ballot.
At the time of this publication, Trump has yet to announce a third run for president. However, with the support of the GOP behind him and a mass of Republican voters ready to give him their votes, it would be wise not to count him out just yet.
Biden Stops By His Childhood Home
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden took two of his granddaughters to see his childhood home in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Tuesday morning, part of a series of informal Election Day campaign stops in the battleground state.
Biden said his two granddaughters, Finnegan and Natalie, had never seen his childhood home, so he wanted to show them. Outside the modest house, supporters filled the streets, chanting and cheering.
While he was in the house, Biden wrote a short prayer on the wall: “From this house to the White House with the grace of God.” It was the second time he had written on the wall there, the first time was during Biden’s successful campaign as President Barack Obama’s running mate in 2008.
Pool reporter Alexi McCammond tweeted photos of the prayer. —Christina Wilkie
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North Carolina Florida And Ohio: Gop Pollster Says Biden Only Needs To Win 1
North Carolina, Florida and Ohio will be key to victory for President Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Republican pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz told CNBC.
“If Donald Trump wins all three of them, he’s going to be in this,” Luntz said on “Squawk Box.”“If Biden wins even one of those three, it’s Biden’s presidency.”
The three states all began processing mail ballots before Election Day and expect to have results by Wednesday morning, therefore offering an early look at each candidate’s prospects.
Luntz said if the president can win all three states, the election outcome may hinge on the results in Pennsylvania, which may take some time. The state did not start processing ballots until 7 a.m. Tuesday and cannot begin counting ballots until polls close on Election Day.
Trump won North Carolina, Florida and Ohio in 2016. Hannah Miao
A Plurality Believe History Will Judge Trump As A The Worst President Ever Less Than A Quarter Of Young Americans Want Trump To Play A Key Role In The Future Of Republican Politics Young Republicans Are Divided
Thirty percent of young Americans believe that history will judge Donald Trump as the worst president ever. Overall, 26% give the 45th president positive marks , while 54% give Trump negative marks 11% believe he will go down as an average president.
Twenty-two percent of young Americans surveyed agree with the statement, I want Donald Trump to play a key role in the future of Republican politics, 58% disagreed, and 19% neither agreed nor disagreed. Among young Republicans, 56% agreed while 22% disagreed, and 21% were neutral. Only 61% of those who voted for Trump in the 2020 general indicated their desire for him to remain active in the GOP.
If they had to choose, 42% of young Republicans consider themselves supporters of the Republican party, and not Donald Trump. A quarter indicated they are Trump supporters first, 24% said they support both.
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Trump Voters Far More Likely To See Their Vote As For Their Candidate
Trump and Biden supporters differ substantially on whether they view their vote as more of an expression of support for their preferred candidate or against his opponent.
Among registered voters who say they would vote for Donald Trump, a large majority say that their choice of Trump is more a vote for Trump, while just 24% say their choice is more of a vote against Biden.
Biden supporters, by contrast, are far more likely than Trump supporters to see their vote as a vote against the opponent: 67% say their choice is more of a vote against Trump, while only about half as many say it is more of a vote for Biden.
There are sizable demographic divides among Biden supporters in views of whether they see their vote more as for Biden or against Trump. By contrast, there are only modest differences in these views among Trump voters.
Younger Biden voters are more likely to say their choice is a vote against Trump. An overwhelming majority of those ages 18 to 29 say their vote is against Trump, while just 16% say it is more a vote for Biden. Among Biden supporters ages 50 and older, a narrower majority say their vote is more a vote against Trump.
While large shares of white and Hispanic Biden voters say their vote is more against Trump , Black voters who support Biden are divided on whether their vote is more for Biden or against Trump .
Days Until Biden’s Inauguration
Wednesday’s joint session of Congress will have procedural fireworks as 13 U.S. senators and more than 100 Republican House members plan to object to electoral votes from potentially six battleground states that Biden won.
But the efforts are doomed to fail, lacking the votes in the Democratic-controlled House and even in the Republican-led Senate. Because each objection could lead to hours of debate in the House and Senate, the session could be a marathon.
But in the end, Biden and Harris will be inaugurated as the next president and vice president at noon on Jan. 20.
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Maine Democrat Gideon’s Senate Campaign Says Key Race May Not Be Called For Days
One of the last competitive Senate races on the 2020 election map may take a while to resolve.
The Maine contest pitting Republican Sen. Susan Collins against Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon was too early to call early Wednesday, according to NBC News. Gideon’s campaign suggested it could take days to declare a winner.
“It’s clear this race will not be called tonight and we are prepared to see it through to the finish,” campaign manager Amy Mesner said. “Over the coming days, we will make sure that every Mainer has their voice heard in this election.”Collins projected confidence to her supporters on Tuesday night, saying that “with any luck at all, we’ll keep on going for Maine and for America.”
If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the state’s ranked-choice voting system would kick in. If that happens, it could take days to decide the winner.
Nbc News Poll: Steve Kornacki Breaks Down Bidens Approval Rating
Its the first time since July 2019 when party supporters have outnumbered Trump supporters in our poll, and its also the first time that party supporters have reached 50 percent on this question.
Strikingly, these numbers are coming as the perception of Trumps pull within his party couldnt be stronger.
GOP politicians are still trekking to Mar-A-Lago. Theyre clamoring for his endorsement. And House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy continues to hug Trump, even after what happened on Jan. 6.
But close to 100 days after leaving office, Trumps standing nationally as well within his own party is weaker today than it was three months ago.
Now we know what youre probably thinking: Since the 2020 polls understated Trumps support, isnt this poll maybe also understating his current support?
And you could be right.
But say you improved his favorable/unfavorable score by 5 points in both directions to 37 percent positive, 50 percent negative.
Thats still a rough set of numbers for someone many Republicans continue to view as the leader of their party.
Here are some other numbers to chew on from our new NBC News poll: There is a significant difference in political attitudes between those who consume conservative media and those who consume everything else.
Percentage with very positive view of Trump
- All adults: 21 percent.
- Conservative media diet: 46 percent.
- Liberal media diet : 8 percent.
- Social media : 21 percent.
- Print, broadcast TV, local news : 11 percent.
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% Of Public Does Not Want Trump To Remain A Major Political Figure In The Future
Pew Research Center conducted this study to examine the publics reactions to the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, including a look into Americans views of Joe Biden as the president-elect and thoughts about the insurrection that took place at the Capitol earlier this month. For this analysis, we surveyed 5,360 U.S. adults in January 2021. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel that is recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other categories. Read more about the ATPs methodology.
As Joe Biden prepares to take office just days after a deadly riot inside the U.S. Capitol, 64% of voters express a positive opinion of his conduct since he won the November election. Majorities also approve of Bidens Cabinet selections and how he has explained his plans and policies for the future.
Trump voters, in particular, have grown more critical of their candidates post-election conduct. The share of his supporters who describe his conduct as poor has doubled over the past two months, from 10% to 20%.
Trump And Gop Sen Shelley Moore Capito Projected To Win West Virginia
President Donald Trump will win the West Virginia presidential race against former Vice President Joe Biden, NBC News projects.
Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia’s junior senator, is also projected to defeat her Democratic rival, according to NBC.
Neither result was unexpected. Trump beat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the 2016 race by more than 40 percentage points in West Virginia, exit polls showed. Now, as in 2016, he is projected to walk away with the state’s five electoral votes.
Capito was widely favored to defeat Democrat Paula Jean Swearengin.
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Democrats Projected To Retain Control Of The House Of Representatives
Democrats will keep their House majority, NBC News projects.
While Democratic control of the House is confirmed, the party is looking to expand its majority in the chamber. Currently, Democrats hold 232 House seats.
Meanwhile, Democrats and Republicans vie for control of the Senate. The GOP picked up a seat with Tommy Tuberville’s projected win in Alabama, while Democrats picked up a seat with John Hickenlooper’s projected win in Colorado, according to NBC News projections.
Mood Is ‘great’ In The White House Mnuchin Says
The mood is “great” in the White House’s East Room, where a couple of hundred people gathered to watch election results, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC’s Kayla Tausche.
The gathering comes less than two months after the White House hosted guests at an event announcing Amy Coney Barrett as the Supreme Court nominee, which the nation’s top infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci later labeled a “super-spreader event.”
President Donald Trump and several other White House officials fell ill with the virus shortly after the event.
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