A Key Question Moving Forward: Is Trumps Grip On The Gop Stronger Than His Bases
An odd fight broke out earlier this week that may well have escaped your notice. A former senior member of Donald Trumps administration released the results of polling arguing that the former presidents grip on the Republican base has weakened. Trump and his team pushed back hard, but that was largely ignored because of the release of the verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial and Trumps diminished voice in the public sphere.
The argument made by a super PAC associated with former national security adviser John Bolton centered on the extent to which Republican voters were still likely to follow Trumps political lead. The desired outcome here is obvious: Bolton, who became a vocal Trump critic, wants to suggest to Republicans that the political cost of bucking Trump has faded. Ergo, the poll.
It centered on three points: that Trumps favorability has fallen, that his endorsement isnt critical and that many Republicans dont plan to support him in a possible 2024 bid. Each of those arguments, though, isnt very strong. The favorability drop compares two polls and shows a small shift from very favorable views to somewhat favorable. The endorsement point leverages a format would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump, etc. that is notoriously iffy.
The 2024 polling still shows Trump at 50 percent among Republican voters, 39 points above the second-place contender. Not exactly a weak position in a crowded field.
Why Donald Trumps Approval Rating Is So High Among Republicans
As the U.S. experienced mass unrest over police brutality and racial inequality, a huge spike in unemployment, and on the current count more than 116,000 coronavirus deaths, President Donald Trumps approval rating took an unsurprising turn for the worse.
But there is one group of voters who have remained squarely in Trumps corner in spite of the triple crises facing the nation: Republicans.
Over the past few months, the president has frequently gloated about his high party-approval figures. Tweeting about his approval rating among Republicans on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: 96% Approval Rating in the Republican Party. Thank you!
As The Washington Post reported at the end of May, the presidents evidence-free claim to have a 96 percent approval rating among GOP voters is not grounded in actual polling data.
Nevertheless, his rating among the Republican base has been consistently high over the last three months.
A new Morning Consult/Politico poll of 653 Republicans found 83 percent approved of Trumps record, a fall of only 5 percentage points from the pollsters March survey. The latest poll, conducted between June 12 to 14, has a 2 percentage point margin of error.
So how has the presidents approval rating among Republicans stayed so high, even amid unrest over race relations, unemployment, and public health?
Trumps Popularity Falls Among Republicans According To New Poll
Former US President Donald Trump
The NBC News poll found that Republican support for the party was greater than the support for the former president, who was favoured by 44 per cent of Republicans.
The figure for registered Republicans in favour of the party over the former president, in comparison, was at 50 per cent.
It was the first time in almost two years that support for the Republican party was greater than that for Mr Trump, NBC News reported, and the first time support for the GOP reached 50 per cent against the former president.
Among all respondents to the poll, Mr Trump was favourable for 32 per cent, and unfavourable for 55 per cent a slight worsening of Januarys figures, when the former president was 40 per cent favourable and 53 percent unfavourable among all registered voters.
When compared to the poll for November, Mr Trump was also 9 per cent less favourable and 2 per cent more unfavourable among all respondents to the NBC News poll.
The findings follow reports of Mr Trumps continued control over the Republican party from his Mar-a-Lago resort in southern Florida even after election defeat, the end of his single-term in office and his alleged support for the 6 January insurrection on the US Capitol.
Among all adults, as few as 21 per cent said so.
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Us President Is Being Forced To Deal With Some Of The Same Dynamics As His Predecessor
Former US president Donald Trump has overtaken his successor Joe Biden in favourability ratings among American voters in what has been described as a remarkable turnaround.
The Times reported that, just eight months after the transfer of power, Trump has a positive rating of 48% compared with Bidens 46% in a Harvard-Harris poll. Back in February, Biden had a 56% positive rating compared with Trumps 43%.
The team that surrounded Trump during his reign also fared better than Bidens circle. Some 55% of respondents said that Mike Pence was a better vice president than his successor, Kamala Harris, and 63% believed that Mike Pompeo was a better secretary of state than Antony Blinken.
A number of other surveys have discovered the same trend, with a poll in the bellwether state of Iowa putting Bidens approval rating at just 31%, down from 43% in June.
Meanwhile, after Biden dropped to a new low of 43% approval in the monthly Gallup survey, down six points from August and 14 since his inauguration in January, the pollster pointed out that among elected presidents since World War Two, only Trump has had a lower job approval rating than Biden does at a similar point in their presidencies.
The Daily Mail agreed that voters regret voting for Biden after his disastrous exit from Kabul, as well as revelations that the US mistakenly killed 10 people, including one aid worker and seven children, after a botched drone strike meant to kill an ISIS-K terrorist.
Data Download: The Numbers You Need To Know Today
58 percent: The share of Americans who say their bigger concern is making sure that everyone who wants to vote can do so, per new NBC News poll.
38 percent: The share who say their bigger concern is making sure that no one votes who is not eligible to vote.
1.6 million: The number of valid signatures collected by backers of the recall election against California Gov. Gavin Newsom, per the secretary of states office.
$400 million: How much the recall election could cost, according to the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials.
$15 an hour: The new minimum wage for federal contractors, starting in January, under an executive order that President Biden is set to sign.
89: The number of people New York fell short by in its count to retain one of its House seats.
32,276,517: The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials.
576,763: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far, per the most recent data from NBC News. (Thats 474 more than yesterday morning.
230,768,454: The number of vaccine doses administered in the U.S.
26.5 percent: The share of Americans who are fully vaccinated
2: The number of days left for Biden to reach his 100-day vaccination goal.
Sahil Kapur notes that Bidens first 100 days have been shaped in some ways by the first 100 days of his Democratic predecessor.
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Approval Ratings By State
Approval ratings vary greatly by state and can indicate how a state will vote in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. Since his inauguration in January 2017, President Trumps net approval has decreased in every state. President Trumps approval rating is decreasing in important states that he won in his 2016 election, including swing states and states that are consistently Republican in every election. The three key states Trump had in his 2016 election are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which currently have approval ratings under 50%.
Below are each states approval ratings for President Trump as of February 2020. Data is from a poll by the Morning Consult.
- Net approval since Trump took office has decreased by 18 points
The Science Of Ranking Us Presidents
Is Barack Obama really the worst president since World War II? The Quinnipiac Poll announced just that result recently. There were thereafter a number of pushbacks from that conclusion, most based on the fact that such an open-end question reflects a “recency bias” in that Americans think about the presidents who are most top-of-mind.
Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspxGallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A +1 202.715.3030
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When Will Joe Biden Be Sworn In
President=elect Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States .
Donald Trump is planning to leave the White House early and says he won’t be attending the ceremony – the first president in over 100 years not to hand the job to their successor in person.
Celebs including Jennifer Lopez and Lady Gaga are expected to perform at the Inauguration, where security will be higher than ever following the storming of the Capitol on January 6.
You can watch the inauguration on most major American news networks, including CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS News and Fox News.
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The mounting issues on all fronts have led to the surprise conclusion that Trump is now seen as being as good a president as Biden, suggesting the honeymoon is being replaced with buyer’s remorse, he said.
The cooling on Biden since taking over the White House is reflective of the countrys overall dissatisfaction in government.
The survey found that 69 per cent of voters disapprove of how the country is being governed.
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After Capitol Attack Trumps Approval Rating Slides In Us Polls
A majority now supports banning Trump from public office amid a sharp partisan divide over his role in the riot
After four years in the White House, Donald Trump is leaving the United States presidency with low job approval ratings following the January 6 attack by his supporters on the US Capitol, according to three new public opinion surveys.
One poll showed an overwhelming majority of Americans opposed the mob violence at the Capitol and two suggest most people think Trump should be prevented from running for office again.
At the same time, however, a sharp partisan divide remains over the outgoing presidents conduct and whether he shares blame for inciting the riot at the Capitol. And Trumps base of supporters believe Republicans politicians should still follow his lead.
The new findings come from surveys released on Friday by the Pew Research Center and Washington Post-ABC News, and on Thursday by Reuters-Ipsos.
Trumps approval rating dropped to 29 percent in the latest Pew Research Center survey, an all-time low.
Most US adults 89 percent in the Washington Post-ABC News survey oppose the actions of the people who stormed the US Capitol last week as Congress was meeting to certify Joe Bidens victory in the 2020 presidential election.
The Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 56 percent of Americans favour disqualifying Trump from ever holding office in the future.
Young Americans Are Significantly More Likely To Be Politically Engaged Than They Were A Decade Ago A Sharp Increase In Progressive Political Values Marked Since 2016
Less than one year after Barack Obamas election, 24% of young Americans considered themselves to be politically active . Twelve years later, we find the share of politically active Americans increased by half and now 36% are politically active. The most politically active among this cohort are young Blacks .
Over the last five years, on a host of issues ranging from health care, to climate, immigration, poverty, and affirmative actionyoung Americans are increasingly more likely to favor government intervention. For example, we found:
- A 19-point increase in agreement with the statement Qualified minorities should be given special preferences in hiring and education .
- An 18-point increase in agreement with the statement Government should do more to curb climate change, even at the expense of economic growth .
- A 16-point increase since 2016 in agreement with The government should spend more to reduce poverty .
- A 16-point increase in Basic health insurance is a right for all people, and if someone has no means of paying for it, the government should provide it .
- An 8-point increase in agreement with Recent immigration into this country has done more good than harm .
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