Sunday, April 7, 2024

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What Are The Chances Trump Gets Reelected

He’s Not Going Anywhere

Bloomberg says Trump has “a decent chance of getting re-elected”

We are apparently living in a blue world, like the one described in that Eurotrash novelty song. The question is not whether Joe Biden is going to be the next president of the United States, but how big the margin will be. Will he win 300 electoral votes? Four hundred? How many states is he going to flip in the Solid South? When will the Truth and Reconciliation process begin? How soon after the inauguration will the media declare that the war against COVID has been won?

These things are, with one obvious exception, being discussed by The New York Times, The Economist, that one sports statistics blog, and the rest of the usual suspects with the sort of yawn-inducing certainty you would expect. The best odds I can find for President Trump’s re-election in any mainstream publication are 12 percent, but other able prognosticators are more likely to put his chances in the low single digits.

There have always been good reasons to think otherwise, though, and I don’t just mean the cookie augurs. The most obvious one is that Trump has done this before. Americans have only sent an elected incumbent packing two times in living memory, in 1992 and 1980. Two of our living former presidents, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, could probably have been re-elected if it were not for term limits. Besides, the single most reliable modern indicator of a president’s chance of re-election is, alas, the performance of the stock market.

Trump Campaigns For 2024 Elections

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump approaches reporters as he departs on campaign travel to Minnesota from the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, U.S., September 30, 2020. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

The secret to Trumps early success in the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton was a divide and conquer strategy. He kept beating a divided field of opponents with significantly less than majority support. Those who dropped out of the race had to endorse another party, or their constituents would scatter. Most of them flocked to the Republican party, ensuring Trumps win.

If he attempts a re-election campaign in 2024, he would need the same support and then some. A single opposing party like the Democrats can easily make the playing field even. And who else would back him up but his former allies? Former Vice President Pence, the formerly unknown Florida governor, his children, and the Republican citizens of the country.

If Trump books a few more big names to endorse him before the filing for his candidacy and even more during his campaign, he might have a chance, whether thats good news or bad news for you. When asked about it, Trump himself says he is very seriously considering another presidential campaign in an interview with Fox News.

Trumps Legacy Paints A Sour Picture

Despite the steady stream of support Trumps administration got from Republican supporters, it got just as much backlash and criticism. Issues about the rising hate crimes have risen exponentially in the past four years. Racism, misogyny, bigotry, police brutality, and white supremacy are only some of these important socio-political issues.

Read Also: What Has Donald Trump Done To Improve The Economy

Move Somewhere Cheap For Awhile

Not in the mood to be traveling all the time? You could just move somewhere. Many countries have visa policies that allow you to live long-term by leaving the country every few months and coming right back.

I still think that Chiang Mai, Thailand, offers the maximum value for a great price. As a solo adult, you can comfortably get by in Chiang Mai for less than $800 per month, or even less if youre part of a couple, and there are plenty of amenities for the many expats who live and work there.

Other popular options for expats? Oaxaca, Mexico. Ubud, Bali. Bangkok, Thailand. Medellin, Colombia. Lake Atitlan, Guatemala . If you have the ability to live in the EU, consider Berlin, Germany Lisbon, Portugal Budapest, Hungary Prague, Czech Republic or any town you can imagine in Spain: Madrid, Sevilla, Granada, Barcelona.

Get A Working Holiday Visa In Australia Or New Zealand

How Will Donald Trumps Acquittal Affect His Re

If youre 30 or under, you qualify to spend a year living and working in Australia or New Zealand! These are the only traditional working visas currently available to Americans.

In both countries, you can apply for the visa if youre as old as 30 you can enter the country within one year of receiving your visa, which means you could start your year at age 31. Australia also offers the option of taking a second year if you spend three months working in regional Australia . Edit: Ive since learned the second year is not available to Americans, sadly. Brits and Canadians can take advantage of this option, however.

You could spend your year bartending in Cairns or Queenstown, working on a winery in the Barossa Valley or Marlborough, working at a corporate job in Melbourne or Wellington, or taking on a hospitality job just about anywhere. And those are just a few of the possibilities.

For more, check out the Australia working holiday visa site and the New Zealand working holiday site.

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How A Pandemic Could Actually Boost Trumps Reelection Chances

Psychology research shows that when humans are made more aware of their mortality, they tend to support dominant leaders who claim to protect them.

04/07/2020 04:43 PM EDT

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Peter T. Coleman is a professor of psychology and education at Columbia University who studies intractable conflict. His next book, The Way Out: How to Overcome Toxic Polarization, will be released in 2021.

One of the burning questions on many Americans minds during the global pandemic were all living through is: What effect will these events have on the reelection of President Donald Trump?

While Trumps approval rating has inched up during the Covid-19 outbreak, a majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of the crisis. Given his initial reluctance to acknowledge the severity of the problem, the administrations testing debacle, and his daily errors and misstatements at his news briefings, many voters might assume that Trumps chances of winning this fall are dwindling.

But a widely studied psychological phenomenon suggests the opposite: that, with the grimness of death hanging in the air, anxious Americans might actually be more likely to support Trump in November because of his dominant leadership style and his claims of offering protection.

How can we switch modes? By offering a compelling vision of hope.

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Donald Trump Has 87% Chance Of Winning The Election Stock Market Researcher Says

President Donald Trump has a very good chance of winning the 2020 presidential election against Joe Biden, if a more than 200-year overview of the stock market is to be believed.

That’s according to research from the Socionomic Institute, a group that has long used the stock market to predict elections and economic and cultural trends.

The research, going back to George Washington, found 16 times in U.S. history when an incumbent president ran for reelection and the stock market was up more than 20% in the preceding three years. In 14 of those 16 times, the incumbent won reelection, giving a success rate of 87%. If the trend holds, Mr. Trump could be No. 15.

The two times it didn’t work out, for reference, were George H.W. Bush, who lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 even though the stock market was up 38% in the preceding three years, and John Adams, who didn’t win his reelection bid in 1800, despite the fact that the value of capital in U.S. chartered banks had risen by 30% in the previous 5 years.

“The stock market is an indicator of social mood,” said Matthew Lampert, who is the director of research of the group. “Historically, a more positive trend in the market and social mood is associated with a win for the incumbent.”

That gives Mr. Trump a pretty clear historical edge. But there are some huge caveats to consider before concluding that he will have another four years in the White House.

Also Check: Does Donald Trump Have Adhd

See If You Can Start Working Remotely

If your job is mostly doable online, you may have the ability to start working remotely and set up shop anywhere in the world.

Note that this is something best done little by little. Start by doing exceptionally outstanding work for awhile, then ask your boss if you can work remotely one day per week. Make that your most productive day of the week. If it goes well and your company is pleased, keep negotiating for more time working remotely.

If youre able to transition to working 100% remotely, keep in mind that you may need to stay within the same time zone or in a destination where you have excellent internet. Still, thats a small price to pay for working from, say, a beach town in Costa Rica!

Donald Trump Odds To Win 2024 Presidential Election Improve Again

What are the odds of Trump winning re-election?

In the past month at London-based Smarkets betting exchange, Donald Trumps chances of winning the presidential election have improved from 10 percent to 18 percent.

The prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is becoming more likely, according to Smarkets betting exchange.

Over the last month at the London-based exchange, the former presidents chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have improved from 10 percent to 18 percent .

In that same span, President Joe Bidens chances of re-election have dropped from 24 percent to 20 percent .

Speculation around Trump never goes away, and the latest Smarkets odds suggest we should be taking the prospect of a re-election bid seriously, Smarkets head of political markets Matthew Shaddick said in an email. Hes now the clear favorite to be the Republican nominee and is on the verge of overtaking President Biden as the most likely winner overall in 2024.

Vice President Kamala Harris chances of winning the 2024 election are 14 percent at Smarkets.

At the United Kingdom-based Betfair sportsbook, Biden remains the +333 favorite to win the 2024 election, and Trump and Harris are tied for the 5-1 second choice.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at Follow on Twitter.

Also Check: What Are The Latest Polls On Trump

What If Donald Trump Wins Again

David Frum: First-term Trump was lazy, gullible, ignorant, vain and crooked. Second-term Trump would be worse.

By David FrumOctober 7, 2020

If Trump can limit his Electoral College losses in the fall election, he can still eke out a win

What if he wins? The first thing to understand about that great what iffrom which so many other grim what ifs would followis what in the real world a so-called Donald Trump win would look like.

If everyone eligible to vote is allowed to vote, if every vote legally cast is countedthen Trump is doomed. His only hope is to find some way to stop the voting, stop the count, and then rely on the weird mechanics of the U.S. Electoral College to save him, against the peoples vote.

Barton Gellman reported in the Atlantic in September that the Trump team is working with officials in Republican-held states to set aside vote counts altogetherand instead authorize state legislatures to choose the states electors. If this scheme proves unfeasible, the Trump team has in mind a series of smaller finagles: arbitrarily stopping vote counts prematurely, rejectingor outright seizingmailed ballots, and many other forms of chicanery not seen in U.S. politics since the aftermath of the Civil War.

Heres the core math to remember on the way to a Trump win.

PAUL WELLS: What if Donald Trump loses?

LIVE: Watch the 2020 election results roll in

The November 2020 cover of Macleans

And if so, what happens next?

Which leads to the third what if:

Save Up Quit Your Job And Backpack The World For Awhile

Yes. You can absolutely do this. Plenty of people around the world travel for months at a time its very common for people from other western countries, but far less popular for Americans.

If you want your money to go the furthest, stick to a cheaper region. Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Central America, and Eastern Europe are all great options. You can live in parts of these regions on less than $1000 per month if you want to .

Heres how I saved $13,000 in just seven months. That was almost enough to sustain me for six months in Southeast Asia from 2010-2011, but keep in mind prices have increased a bit since then.

Recommended Reading: Why Should I Vote For Trump

Study Abroad Or Get Another Degree

Are you still in college? Studying abroad will be one of the most valuable things you do in your college career. Here are the lessons I learned from my semester in Florence in 2004.

Already have a degree? This could be a great opportunity to get your masters abroad! Several countries offer you the option of getting your masters in just one year, unlike the standard two years in the United States.

You probably know that several countries offer free university education to their citizens. Well, several countries offer free university education to international students as well, including Americans! Dont speak the local language? They offer degrees given in English as well.

It was big news when Germany began offering free education to international students in 2014. Other countries include Brazil, Finland, France, Norway, Slovenia, and Sweden.

Many of these countries also offer stipends, making getting your degree infinitely more affordable than in the U.S.

Get A Job Teaching English Abroad

Trumps Reelection Chances Just Went Down the Tubes

Teaching English abroad is one of the easiest ways U.S. citizens can get a job working abroad. Most countries only require a university degree in any field others also require a TEFL certificate.

The most opportunity for Americans is in Asia. South Korea tends to offer the best packages: a competitive salary plus free housing and free flights to and from your home country. Many teachers in South Korea are able to comfortably save more than $10,000 per year and pay down debt or go traveling afterward.

Japan, China, and Taiwan also have great environments for teaching English with decent benefits. Entry-level teaching jobs in Southeast Asia and Latin America tend to pay only enough to get by.

While many Americans dream of teaching English in Europe, its extremely difficult to work in the EU without EU citizenship and the jobs are thus few. Eastern Europe and Turkey are a better bet.

Options in the Middle East tend to pay the most but have the most stringent requirements, often a teaching certification and experience in your home country and/or an advanced degree.

This is just the most basic of overviews head to ESL Cafe to learn anything and everything about teaching English abroad.

Read Also: How Much Does Trump Cost

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