Familiar Demographic Divides In Vote Preferences
In the final weeks leading up to Election Day, Biden holds a 10 percentage point lead over Trump among registered voters in the presidential race . Many of the demographic patterns of support for both candidates are similar to those in the 2016 presidential contest.
Just as was the case four years ago, there is a sizable gender gap in candidate preference: Women voters continue to favor the Democratic candidate for president by 17 percentage points . This is roughly on par with 2016.
In contrast, men are divided. Today, 49% favor Biden while 45% favor Trump. In 2016, men favored Trump by modest margins in preelection polls, as well as among validated 2016 voters.
There are also sizable gaps by race and ethnicity. White voters prefer Trump to Biden , though Biden is faring slightly better among White voters in the current race relative to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
And the sizable Democratic advantages among Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters are just as large for Biden as they were in 2016. Biden currently leads Black voters by 81 percentage points, Hispanic voters by 34 points and Asian voters by 53 points. Note: Surveys are conducted in English and Spanish.
Education is also a dividing line among White voters: College-educated White voters favor Biden by 21 percentage points, while those without a college degree favor Trump by a similar margin.
Question6 Overall Do You Think The Country Is Better Off Or Worse Off Today Than It Was A Year Ago
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoBetter 41% 5% 76% 38% 37% 45% 53% 25%Worse 52 94 14 56 56 48 44 70SAME 5 1 7 4 4 5 1 3DK/NA 3 - 2 2 3 2 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspBetter 44% 43% 37% 40% 30% 38% 34% 67% 42%Worse 44 51 58 56 65 58 61 24 50SAME 8 4 4 2 2 2 2 7 4DK/NA 4 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4
Which States Will Decide This Election
As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.
Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.
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Question9 Overall Do You Think Donald Trump Has Had A Mainly Positive Or Mainly Negative Impact On
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoPositive 41% 84% 4% 45% 48% 35% 37% 58%Negative 51 9 94 47 44 58 60 36DK/NA 8 7 2 8 8 7 4 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspPositive 33% 36% 47% 49% 57% 45% 50% 12% 37%Negative 56 54 47 49 36 50 44 81 51DK/NA 11 9 6 3 7 5 6 7 12
Us S Korea To Continue Discussing End
The U.S. point man on North Korea said Sunday that he looks forward to exploring different options with South Korea to resume dialogue with Pyongyang.
Sung Kim, the special representative for North Korea, also reiterated Washington’s willingness to help address the North’s humanitarian concerns for its people in need, especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic, speaking to reporters right after a meeting here with his South Korean counterpart, Noh Kyu-duk.
He also called on Pyongyang to stop “provocations” and other destabilizing activities and return to dialogue.
Noh Kyu-duk said the latest security situation on the Korean Peninsula underscored the urgent need for resuming talks with North Korea. Seoul and Washington are ready to discuss any issues at the negotiating table if the North accepts their talk offer.
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Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
Views About Prospects For Future Generations Improve Among Black And Hispanic Americans
About half of the public says life for future generations of Americans will be worse than life today, while a quarter say it will be better and a similar share say it will be about the same. Within nearly all major demographic and political groups, more say life will be worse for future generations than say it will be better.
Younger adults are somewhat more likely than older adults to say life will be better for future generations. A third of those ages 18 to 29 say this, compared with about a quarter of those ages 30 to 49 and 50 to 64 and 20% of adults 65 and older.
A third of Black Americans say life will be better for future generations, while a smaller share of white Americans say this. About a quarter of Hispanic Americans say life will be better for future generations.
There are only modest partisan differences on this question, though Democrats are slightly more optimistic .
However, Democrats have become more optimistic about how life will be for future generations of Americans since the question was last asked last fall, while Republicans have become less optimistic. In September, just 14% of Democrats said life would be better for future generations today, roughly double that share say this . In contrast, the proportion of Republicans saying life would be better decreased from 31% to 23% over the same period.
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Voter Engagement And Candidate Preferences
Just as Biden holds an advantage over Trump among all registered voters in the current survey, his lead over Trump looks similar across a variety of voter engagement metrics ranging from about 8 to 12 percentage points.
Biden has a lead among voters who have thought a lot about the election , as well as among those who say it really matters who wins the presidential election this November .
The Democratic candidate also leads Trump among those who say they are extremely motivated to vote, and among those who say they follow what is going on in government and public affairs most of the time .
And among validated voters voters whose record of voting in the presidential election were matched to a state-administered voter file in the two most recent national elections, Biden outperforms Trump among each group: 8 percentage points among 2016 validated voters and 12 points among 2018 validated voters .
Question1 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Joe Biden Is Handling His Job As President
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoApprove 37% 3% 80% 28% 30% 43% 50% 25%Disapprove 52 95 11 56 58 45 46 65DK/NA 12 3 9 15 12 12 4 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspApprove 31% 39% 37% 43% 26% 40% 33% 65% 33%Disapprove 48 50 55 53 65 53 59 22 51DK/NA 21 11 8 4 9 8 8 13 16
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Trump Voters Far More Likely To See Their Vote As For Their Candidate
Trump and Biden supporters differ substantially on whether they view their vote as more of an expression of support for their preferred candidate or against his opponent.
Among registered voters who say they would vote for Donald Trump, a large majority say that their choice of Trump is more a vote for Trump, while just 24% say their choice is more of a vote against Biden.
Biden supporters, by contrast, are far more likely than Trump supporters to see their vote as a vote against the opponent: 67% say their choice is more of a vote against Trump, while only about half as many say it is more of a vote for Biden.
There are sizable demographic divides among Biden supporters in views of whether they see their vote more as for Biden or against Trump. By contrast, there are only modest differences in these views among Trump voters.
Younger Biden voters are more likely to say their choice is a vote against Trump. An overwhelming majority of those ages 18 to 29 say their vote is against Trump, while just 16% say it is more a vote for Biden. Among Biden supporters ages 50 and older, a narrower majority say their vote is more a vote against Trump.
While large shares of white and Hispanic Biden voters say their vote is more against Trump , Black voters who support Biden are divided on whether their vote is more for Biden or against Trump .
Who Really Won The Election
Keep up to date on President Trumps popularity and how the general population perceives his performance.
All polling records shown on this website are 100% accurate and reveal the true national polling numbers. MSM and other biased media outlets cannot be counted on for accurate data. Only DonaldTrumpPolls maintains the nations largest pool of votes nationwide covering the popularity of our most recent president.
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Does Trump Have A Responsibility To Release His Tax Returns
Partisans take opposing views on this question: 78% of Republicans and Republican leaners say Trump does not have a responsibility to release his tax returns an even larger share of Democrats and Democratic leaners say he does have this responsibility.
Among Republicans, conservatives are 20 points more likely than moderates and liberals to say Trump does not have a responsibility to reduce his tax returns . There is a more modest ideological gap among Democrats.
The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
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Ballotpedia’s Polling Index: Comparison Of Opinion Polling During The Trump And Biden Administrations
|Cabinet White House staff Transition team|
Weeks covered: 36
This page compares overall trends in opinion polling averages during the presidency of Joe Biden to those during the presidency of Donald Trump . Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are an average of polls that measure public sentiment on presidential job approval, congressional job approval, and satisfaction with the overall direction of the country.
Ballotpedia’s polling indexes are updated every weekday based on opinion polls released by qualifying sources. The most recent poll released by each qualifying source is included in the overall polling average. Polls are removed from the average when the same source releases a more recent poll or 30 days after the poll was last in the field, whichever occurred first. This page looks at these polling numbers on a week-over-week basis, starting with the first full workweek of the new president’s term. This means that the numbers on this page are all weekly averages of daily average poll results.