Sunday, October 2, 2022

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Can Trump Beat Biden In 2020

Newsom Slams Red State Governors On Dc Trip Stoking Speculation About His Future

Joe Biden beats Donald Trump to win US presidential election | US election 2020

Gov. Newsom blasted red-state efforts to ban books and limit education about race in public schools.

Though just a quarter of California voters in the survey said they want to see Trump, 76, run again in two years, the former president remains the strong favorite among the states Republicans. Two-thirds of registered GOP voters said they back another Trump candidacy, compared with 7% of Democrats and 21% of voters not aligned with a party.

Unlike on the Democratic side, however, there is a clearer consensus for an alternative GOP candidate. DeSantis, 43, would be the first choice for 27% of registered California Republicans polled, even if Trump ran too. Support for DeSantis climbs to 53% with Trump off the ballot. The next-closest contender, former Vice President Mike Pence, notched just 9% in a hypothetical Trump-free primary.

With so much time left before election day in 2024, the standings of potential candidates on either side are bound to shift. To DiCamillo, the bigger takeaway is that Californians want to avoid rehashing 2020, and feel strongly about that.

When you ask about Biden, 41% strongly oppose him running. When you go to Trump, its 65%, DiCamillo said. Thats an incredibly large number of voters saying they strongly disapprove or oppose his candidacy.

Watch L.A. Times Today at 7 p.m. on Spectrum News 1 on Channel 1 or live stream on the Spectrum News App. Palos Verdes Peninsula and Orange County viewers can watch on Cox Systems on channel 99.

Presidential Debate: Who Won The Trump

“Shut up, man” and other insults and interruptions

In a debate that was the political equivalent of a food fight, the winner was the man who emerged least covered in slop.

On Tuesday night, on the basis of instant polls and betting markets, that man was Joe Biden – if only because his main goal was to prove to Americans that he could hold up under pressure, that he had not lost a step due to his advancing age. He had to show he could take a pie to the face, metaphorically speaking, and keep his cool.

He mostly met that standard, although it was at least in part because Donald Trump, by his constant hectoring and interruptions, seldom gave the former vice-president a chance to say something truly damaging to his own cause.

Twitter Trump – the unconventional, bombastic, insulting and rumour-mongering aspect of this president – was on full display throughout the hour-and-a-half event. Unfortunately for the president, many Americans, even his own supporters, find his social media persona one of his more unattractive attributes.

Trump needed this debate to shake up a race that is tilting against him – and which has been remarkably stable, through economic, health and social adversity.

Nothing about this free-for-all seems likely to alter the dynamics of this contest or change the minds of the one in 10 American voters who say they are still undecided .

An Examination Of The 2020 Electorate Based On Validated Voters

By Ruth Igielnik, Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig

Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016 and 2018. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted.

We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 2018 and 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATPs methodology.

Here are the questions used for this report and its methodology.

Validated voters, defined

Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis:

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Joe Biden Can Beat Trump In 2020 But Will The Democratic Party Let Him Run

Matthew Cooper U.S.Joe BidenDonald Trump2020 ElectionDemocrats

Five monthsfive agonizing months. That’s how long it had been since Joe Biden’s eldest son, Beau, died of an aggressive brain tumor. For three years, Joe had cared for Beau, an Iraq War veteran and Delaware’s attorney general, but by the spring of 2015 he was gone. The pain of his son’s death was still raw for the vice president as he stepped behind a microphone in the White House’s Rose Garden in October 2015, flanked by his wife, Jill, and President Barack Obama.

You could see Joe Biden’s hurt his normally ebullient smile was gone, replaced by a fatigued grimace. Facing a small crowd and live cameras, Biden announced what many had long expected: He would not be running for president in 2016. The longtime senator was not emotionally ready. The “grieving process,” Biden said, “doesn’t respect or much care about things like filing deadlines or debates and primaries and caucuses.”

The plan was in place, but the night before Biden’s Rose Garden speech, Donilon suddenly reversed course. “You shouldn’t do this,” he told Biden, who had to admit he was right. For months, he had been wrestling with Beau’s death, sometimes welling up in public, most notably in an appearance on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert in September, and he’d come to believe he wasn’t capable of giving all his energy to a presidential bid.

America may want him to run, but do the Democrats?

#HimToo

With Midterm Elections Approaching Heres Where President Biden Stands

Trump, Biden participate in first presidential debate of 2020

Mr. Biden has repeatedly said that he expects to run again in 2024. But if he does not, there is little consensus about who would lead the party.

Few Democrats interviewed expect that high-profile leaders with White House ambitions would defer to Vice President Kamala Harris, who has had a series of political hiccups of her own in office.

These Democrats mentioned a host of other figures who lost to Mr. Biden in the 2020 primary: Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Cory Booker of New Jersey Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Beto ORourke, the former congressman who is now running for Texas governor, among others.

Mr. Bidens supporters insist he has the country on the right track, despite the obstacles.

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Follow The Latest Updates On Trump

Although recent polls have shown Mr Biden with an approval rating of 41 per cent, the figure is still higher than Mr Trumps worst approval rating from December 2017 when he fell to as low as 33 per cent.

The Republican who won the presidency in 2016 but not the popular vote also became the first president to not reach a 50 per cent approval rating. Mr Biden in comparison polled above 50 per cent for most of last year, and his administration recently issued reassurances that he would in fact run again.

Mr Trump has meanwhile refused to announce his own bid for 2024, while dropping many hints such as: I think youll be happy and I think a lot of our friends will be very happy, in an interview with Fox Newss Sean Hannity last year about 2024 rumours.

More than half of Republican voters meanwhile still believe Mr Trump is US president largely in the aftermath of the Republicans long running allegations of a fraudulent 220 election. The claims are widely known as his Big Lie.

The wide ranging interview on Tuesday also touched on Russia and Ukraine, with many commentators expressing their outrage at Mr Trumps praise for Vladimir Putin, who has ordered troops into Ukraines eastern regions.

Us Election Results : Joe Biden’s Defeat Of Donald Trump

Georgia recertifies election results, confirming Bidens victory, despite Trumps continued refusal to formally concede

Tue 8 Dec 2020 10.21 GMT Last modified on Thu 21 Jan 2021 03.18 GMT

Tue 8 Dec 2020 10.21 GMT Last modified on Thu 21 Jan 2021 03.18 GMT

The race for the presidency is usually decided in a small number of key battleground states that switch party allegiance between elections.

2 months ago

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Can We Expect Anything Other Than Biden Vs Trump In 2024

A FiveThirtyEight Chat

Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah : We know the 2022 midterm elections havent happened yet, but this summer has seen an unusual amount of activity on the 2024 front.

Namely, many Americans, including Democrats, are really down on the idea of President Biden seeking a second term, while former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle. A sizable portion of Americans say they dont want Biden or Trump to have a second term, but is there, uh a path for anyone who isnt Trump or Biden in 2024?

Lets tackle this chat in two parts:

  • First, what is the case for or against any other Democratic presidential candidate breaking through?
  • And second, what is the case for or against any other Republican presidential candidate breaking through?
  • OK, first up. Is there a Democrat who can take on Biden?

    alex : I dont think so, Sarah, especially if Trump is the nominee. If Trump announces that hes running for a second term, I think: 1) Biden will run again, and 2) there wont be a damaging primary to take him down.

    What Democrat is going to take Biden on against Trump? Democrats will coalesce around the nominee who can beat Trump, and Biden has already proved that he can.

    alex: Right, Nathaniel. I just dont see notable Democrats wanting to participate in a messy, protracted primary against the sitting president. It would be a terrible look for the party.

    nrakich: Yes!

    Regrets: Trump Would Beat Biden Today More Women And Blacks Support

    Highlights From Trump And Biden’s Chaotic First Presidential Debate

    A slew of new polls have come out this week showing the shrinking support for and approval of President Joe Biden, his average now below 50%.

    But today, Rasmussen Reports is issuing the capper, telling Secrets that in an election do-over, Biden would lose to former President Donald Trump.

    The details of the survey, which samples more Democrats than Republicans, showed that Trump would win more women and blacks than he did in 2020 when he lost to Biden, 46.8%-51.3%.

    A sizable 14% would choose some other candidate, though none were named.

    The survey comes at a key point in Bidens presidency. He is now under fire for bungling Americas withdrawal from Afghanistan, increasing inflation, and spiraling crime.

    Several other surveys out this week have shown his approval rating underwater, a place Trump floated for much of his presidency.

    Today, Axios headlined, Biden’s average approval rating drops below 50% for first time. It cited poll trackers from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics.

    The site added, This marks a precipitous decline from the FiveThirtyEight peak of 55.1% in March and the RCP peak of 55.7% in April.

    Despite showing Trump edging Biden in an election today, most told Rasmussen that they do not regret their 2020 vote. Some 89% said so, led by 95% of Republicans. For Democrats, it was less, 87%.

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    Biden Calls For Unity Warns Against Extremism Of Trump And Maga Republicans

    Polling continued to suggest the GOP benefited from an enthusiasm gap in its favor well over one month after the Supreme Courts decision overturning the precedents in Roe and Casey. Even in red states where abortion-rights supporters have recently enjoyed surprising victories at the polls, those voters dont seem inclined to vote blue in November.

    If Republicans sense any advantage in their remora-like attachment to the former president, it is insofar as their deference to him excites their base voters and sends their opponents into a frothing rage. But a frothing rage is what moves voters to engage in the political process. Humiliating spectacles like those Biden presided over for the first 18 months of his presidency dont. Republicans have voluntarily substituted a campaign-year message that discouraged Democratic voters for one that enlivens them like little else.

    CLARIFICATION : A previous version of this article reported that Mary Peltola finished fourth in the initial round of voting. That referred to the special House primary in June, not to the general election last month.

    Biden Fails To Hurt Trump On His ‘hidden Taxes’

    When the New York Times story about Trump’s taxes broke on Sunday night, it was viewed as a bombshell – the public was finally getting a look at information the president had, in a break with tradition, withheld for years.

    Political analysts and prognosticators wondered how Trump would handle this during the debate.

    When the topic came up, however, Donald Trump offered a similar defence to the one he provided in 2016, when he boasted how he knew the tax code better than any previous candidate – and his ability to avoid a larger tax bill was simply his taking advantage of the law.

    Biden, for his part, tried to turn the topic into a condemnation of Republican-passed tax reform. While he noted that Trump paid less in federal taxes than schoolteachers, that message – which could have been a powerful attack – got buried in an ensuing scuffle with the president.

    If Trump’s tax returns have any legs as an issue in this campaign, it won’t be because of this debate.

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    Tackling Migration Us Vp Harris Backs Investment In Latin America

    Amid predictions of a Trump vs Biden rematch in 2024, polls suggest voters want neither, but a new face with a focused agenda to repair the economy, the job market and control rising prices of groceries and gas, and eventually the 40-year-high inflation ahead of the winter.

    Odds seem stacked against the Democrats in the upcoming Nov mid-term polls, with President Joe Biden, First Lady Jill Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ratings plummeting by the day and with a wafer-thin edge over the incumbent President.

    The battle of the ballot is going to be over the Biden administration’s efforts to rejuvenate the economy and rid it of inflation, fears of recession, control soaring house rentals, properties, grocery prices, shortage of raw materials, scarcity of baby food formulas vs Trump’s ability to survive the tearing pieces of evidence of his alleged collaboration in assembling and inciting a riotous mob at the Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 to not to certify Biden’s election.

    However, how much of this is going to weigh in with the voters in midterms and in the primaries with the party members and funders for both the ex and incumbent is the big question.

    Just 13 per cent of voters of all kinds say the US is “on the right track”, while 77 per cent said it was “headed in the wrong direction”. However, Biden would likely defeat Trump again if the election were held now, the survey suggested, with 44 per cent of voters selecting him, compared to 41 per cent for Trump.

    Biden: Trump Rhetoric Eating At The Fabric Of This Country

    Majority agree Trump will beat Biden, 51%

    Rep. Ted Deutch , who got his start in politics as a college student volunteering on Bidens 1988 presidential campaign, described getting one of those calls.

    It was Vice President Biden just calling to tell me he was watching and he saw me on CNN, I was strong, and I should keep it up, Deutch said. This is clearly a guy whos paying close attention to whats going on and wants to be a part of it.

    Bidens PAC, American Possibilities, launched in May. It has raised money only through emails, but the group expects to have between $500,000 and $1 million in its coffers by the end of this year. It will begin doling out more of that money in 2018. So far this year, Alabama Senate candidate Doug Jones, governor and lieutenant governor candidates in Virginia and New Jersey, and six state statehouse candidates have received donations from the group.

    Among Obama alumni, theres deep skepticism that Biden will go through with a run. And while Obama and Biden have seen each other somewhat regularly since leaving office in January, they have not had any in-depth conversations about 2020,sources close to both men say.

    While some big money Democrats have been wary about pegging the future of the party with a former two-term vice president, some former Clinton donors have reached out with interest, as have former Obama donors.

    Biden spokesman Bill Russo declined to comment.

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