An Examination Of The 2020 Electorate Based On Validated Voters
By Ruth Igielnik, Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016 and 2018. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted.
We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 2018 and 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATPs methodology.
Here are the questions used for this report and its methodology.
Validated voters, defined
Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis:
New 2020 Voter Data: How Biden Won How Trump Kept The Race Close And What It Tells Us About The Future
As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well.
Now, using a massive sample of validated voters whose participation has been independently verified, the Pew Research Center has . It helps us understand how Joe Biden was able to accomplish what Hillary Clinton did notand why President Trump came closer to getting reelected than the pre-election surveys had predicted.
How Joe Biden won
Five main factors account for Bidens success.
How Trump kept it close
Despite non-stop controversy about his policies and personal conduct, President Trump managed to raise his share of the popular vote from 46% in 2016 to 47% in 2020. His core coalition held together, and he made a few new friends.
Longer-term prospects
Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
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A Win For Trump’s Candidate In Michigan
In Michigan, Trump-backed secretary of state candidate Kristina Karamo, a Black Christian political newcomer, captured the former presidents attention after she falsely alleged widespread voter fraud in her state and echoed his baseless claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him the centerpiece of Trumps re-election strategy, Hutchings said.
Trump’s candidate: Michigan secretary of state candidate Kristina Karamo: I’m a little MAGA warrior
After gaining prominence as an outspoken 2020 poll challenger in Detroit, Karamo earned Trumps endorsement in September and secured the unofficial Republican party nomination at the April 23 Michigan GOP endorsement convention in Grand Rapids. In so doing, she became the first GOP nominee for secretary of state who refuses to acknowledge Joe Biden’s win in 2020.
Following a formal party vote in the Aug. 2 primary, Karamo is expected to face incumbent Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson in the November general election. Although a Karamo victory appears unlikely, Hutchings said her campaign will be a good measure of the mainstream appeal of Trumps far-right ideas and apply pressure to the elections system in a battleground state.
Donald Trump Beats Joe Biden In Latest 2024 Election Poll
Although former President Donald Trump has not formally announced plans to run for reelection in 2024, new polling suggests he is well-positioned for a rematch against President Joe Biden and could even come out as the winner.
The poll released Friday by Emerson College shows Trump narrowly beating Biden in a hypothetical matchup. While neither Trump nor Biden is backed by the majority of voters, the former president is currently 2 points ahead of the current president.
Trump is supported by 45 percent of registered voters while Biden is backed by just 43 percent, the latest Emerson survey data shows. Meanwhile, 11 percent of registered voters said they want to vote for “someone else,” and just 1 percent said they remain “undecided.”
Emerson’s new poll was conducted from November 3 to 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Notably, the gap between Trump and Biden has widened a bit since Emerson carried out a similar poll in early September. That previous survey showed Trump leading Biden by just 1 percentage point. However, both the Republican and Democrat were supported by a larger number of registered voters at the time.
Trump was backed by 47 percent compared to 46 percent who supported Biden. As of this month, Trump’s support has declined by 2 points while Biden’s has dropped by 3 points.
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Trump Praises Powerful Texas Gop After Rejection Of Biden Win
Former President Trump applauded the Texas Republican Partys proposed platform that declares President Biden was not legitimately elected on Tuesday.
Look at the Great State of Texas and their powerful Republican Party Platform on the 2020 Presidential Election Fraud, Trump wrote on Truth Social, the social media platform he founded as an alternative to Twitter. After much research and study, they disavow the national result for President.
The state party adopted the platform at its biennial convention this past weekend, also approving a resolution to reject the 2020 presidential election results. It claims that substantial election fraud in key metropolitan areas occurred in five swing states, leading to Bidens victory.
Trump and his allies have repeatedly claimed the 2020 election was tainted by widespread election fraud. However, state and federal elections officials have said there was no substantial evidence of widespread election fraud in 2020.
Trump and his campaign mounted dozens of legal challenges in an effort to overturn the election results. The majority of these challenges were unsuccessful.
Texas GOP communications director James Wesolek told The Hill on Monday that the resolution the party passed is not officially part of the platform and passed by a voice vote of delegates. Each delegate needed to vote in favor or against 275 proposals for the platform, and the results are expected to be counted this week.
Colorado Stands As The Next Test On The Former President’s False Claims
In Colorado, Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters, a proponent of Trumps election conspiracies, has been indicted for seven felony charges and three misdemeanors related to election fraud.
The state GOP has called for her to suspend her campaign, and a judge has barred her from overseeing the 2022 elections. At the end of May, Peters was arrested for resisting a search warrant, and multiple state and federal investigations into her election involvement are underway.
Though Trump has not endorsed Peters, her campaign spending records show she visited his Mar-a-Lago resort, a popular venue for those seeking the former presidents support though Peters maintains the visits were for a film viewing and a fundraiser for Adam Finchem, an election denier running for secretary of state in Arizona.
In the states June 28 Republican primary, Peters will face moderate Republican Pam Anderson, a longtime elections official who rejects election fraud lies and says she will not be seeking any out-of-state endorsements.
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Biden Counties Are Younger And More Racially Diverse
The diverging profiles of Bidens America and Trumps America might best be compared when looking at the age and racial makeup of each candidates counties. In keeping with the urban-rural divide discussed above, Trumps America is clearly whiter and older. Even young people living in Trump counties are predominantly whitedespite the fact that, nationally, the under-age-16 population is minority white.
Populations in counties where Biden prevailed are younger and decidedly more diverse. There, as a group, minorities outnumber whites for all ages under 45, and are not far behind whites in the 45-to-54 age group.
Can We Trust The Polls
It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.
Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.
Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.
But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.
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President Biden Heads To Germany For G7
If the next presidential election were held today, former President Donald Trump would defeat President Biden by six percentage points and Vice President Kamala Harris by 11 percentage points, according to a new poll.
The 45th president would unseat Biden by a 47% to 41% margin, according to the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll published by The Hill. However, 12% of voters are undecided.
Harris going up against Trump would produce an even worse result for Democrats 49% would vote for the former president compared to 38% for the veep.
Neither Trump nor Biden has officially thrown his hat into the 2024 ring, but both have hinted that they would run again.
The truth is I ran twice, I won twice and I just did better the second time. And now, we just might have to do it again, Trump told supporters at a rally in Georgia Saturday night.
Biden said last week that he would be very fortunate to face Trump again in 2024.
The next election, Id be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me, the president said during a news conference in Brussels on Thursday after meeting with NATO allies about the Ukraine invasion.
Biden defeated Trump in 2020 with 306 Electoral College votes to Trumps 232, winning the battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He also won the popular vote count by more than 7 million.
If Biden, 79, and Trump, 75, opt not to run again, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the favorite to carry the GOP standard.
In Idaho A Win For Clerk Who Affirmed Bidens Election Win
In Idahos May 17 Republican primaries, state senator Mary Souza and state representative Dorothy Moon both rejected the results of the 2020 election, while county clerk Phil McGrane affirmed President Joe Bidens win.
McGrane won with 43% of the vote the remaining 56.9% of Republicans backed one of the candidates espousing Trumps false election fraud claims, Moon and Souza, in the primaries.
Mainstream Republicans like McGrane also won in Idahos governor and lieutenant governor races while the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor lost by 20 points. The states primaries overall raise questions about the potency of a Trump endorsement and the persuasiveness of a campaign promoting false claims of election fraud.
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In Nevada Trump Ally Wins The Nomination For Secretary Of State
Seven candidates were in the ring for the GOP secretary of state nomination in Nevadas June 14 Republican primary, vying to replace current Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske, who could not seek reelection due to term limits.
The winner was America First candidate and former state assemblyman Jim Marchant, with 38% of the vote.
The second-place candidate was the races top fundraiser, former state senator Jesse Haw, who got 20% of the vote.
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Though he hasnt secured a Trump endorsement, Marchant was backed by MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, a pro-Trump donor whos financially backed a number of these state races. Lindell said he sent $800,000 to Colorado candidate Peters for her defense fund as she combats election fraud charges.
Cristobella Durette and Julia Shapero contributed
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Donald Trump’s Chances Vs Joe Biden If He Runs Again In 2024
A number of bookmakers are naming Donald Trump as their favorite to win the 2024 presidential election if he runs, but several polls suggest it is still neck-and-neck between him and Joe Biden in a hypothetical match-up.
According to OddsChecker, which aggregates betting odds from numerous sources, Trump is the favorite to be the next president by several bookmakers including Paddy Power and Betfairwho are offering odds of 11/4as well as Bet365 and SkyBet .
In comparison, Paddy Power and Betfair are offering 9/2 odds on Biden winning the 2024 election, with Bet365 and SkyBet offering 5/1.
Trump has not formally announced that he intends on running for president again, but he has hinted at it from the moment he left the White House in January 2021.
The suggestion that Trump could beat Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up has been backed by a recent Emerson College poll conducted on May 24 and 25.
According to those taking part in the survey, 44 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2024, and 42 percent said they would back Biden if they were the two candidates.
The poll also shows that Biden’s approval rating remains low at 38 percent, down from 42 percent in an April survey.
The Emerson College poll reveals Biden’s job approval is lowest among white voters at 33 percent, and highest among Black voters at 61 percent.
