Eric Garcetti Mitch Landrieu
Its a long step from the mayors office to the White House, but with so few Democratic governors and with the partys strength in urban areas it seems an opportune time for a Democratic mayor to take it.
Eric Garcetti, in his second term as Los Angeles mayor, is considered by many Democrats to be a top political talent. And while a run for Congress or the governors office might be more realistic, his articulation of an urban agenda, with a focus on infrastructure and immigration, could strike a chord in a presidential race.
Mitch Landrieu, wholl finish his term-limited tenure as New Orleans mayor early next year, struck a chord in May when he gave a speech explaining why the city was taking down its four Confederate monuments. In the wake of Charlottesville, his words have become even more resonant.
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There are almost too many Democrats to count in the 2020 primaries but any of the top five leading candidates would beat Donald Trump in a general election, according to the latest polling.
Despite the majority of those surveyed saying the president is doing a good job with the nations economy , each of the five highest polling Democrats on the campaign trail beat Mr Trump in CNNs head-to-head polling conducted by SSRS.
Beto ORourke bests Mr Trump by the highest margin, with 52 per cent of voters saying they would vote for him compared to 42 per cent who said they would vote for the president in a race against the Texas Democrat.
Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders each beat out Mr Trump as well with a six and seven per cent advantage respectively, while Kamala Harris leads the president by four per cent.
Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg who has climbed in the polls in recent weeks and proved effective at national fundraising despite little name recognition also would beat Mr Trump by three per cent, according to the poll.
It Can Be Done But Democrats Need To Start Employing A Smarter Strategy And Fast
President Trump master of turning subtext into text has made it official: He’s running for president again in 2020. Trump announced earlier this week that he’s hired his campaign manager a full 980 days before Election Day 2020.
Serious activists shouldn’t let their attention get too far ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Congress is a co-equal branch of government, after all. But with Trump already embarking on his re-election bid, it’s not too early for his opponents to begin strategizing for the next presidential election too, even though it won’t take place for another 32 months.
What should these Democrats do to dethrone the leader they loathe? Here’s a five-step plan for doing in 2020 what they couldn’t do in 2016: Defeat Donald Trump.
1. Realize that Trump is vulnerable
During the 2016 election, Trump appeared to be entirely scandal- and gaffe-proof. Incidents that would have spelled political death for any other candidate criticizing Gold Star families, getting caught on Access Hollywood musing about his power to treat women like objects for his pleasure only seemed to strengthen his standing with supporters. “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” he said, not without some truth.
2. Take nothing for granted and expand the map
It’s difficult to win elections you don’t contest. Democrats shouldn’t assume that any state is reliably and certainly theirs.
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The Party Needs To Stop Obsessing Over Moderate Swing Voters
The Democratic Party should stop focusing all of its attention on the small slice of white, Obama-Trump voters and do more to galvanize its young, diverse base, argues Melanye Price, a professor of political science at Prairie View A& M University in Texas, in The Times. Conventional wisdom holds that Democrats must appeal to the center, but an increasingly popular theory has emerged on the left tested in practice by progressives like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Katie Porter, who beat more conservative incumbents in 2018 that the party doesnt need to make such compromises if it can expand its pool of voters.
Ms. Price writes that by next November, seven million young people of color will have turned 18 since the 2016 election. These young, more progressive Americans could help the Democrats win in 2020, she writes, but not if the party ignores what they want by continuing to cater only to white swing voters:
Sean McElwee, a co-founder of Data for Progress, and three political scientists, Jesse H. Rhodes, Brian F. Schaffner and Bernard L. Fraga, agree that the Democratic Partys focus on swing voters has come at the expense of other constituencies. Their analysis shows that while 9 percent of Obama 2012 voters went for Mr. Trump in 2016, 7 percent more than four million people stayed home, and 3 percent voted for a third-party candidate.
The Five Republicans Who Could Challenge Trump In 2024
Former President Trump has hinted repeatedly that hes weighing another bid for the White House in 2024.
And while hes made clear that, if he does so, the nomination should be his for the taking, he could still face some competition. A number of Republicans have begun maneuvering toward presidential campaigns of their own, some more overtly than others.
Of course, theres a political risk that comes with challenging Trump. But that doesnt appear to be deterring some prospective candidates.
Here are the five Republicans who could challenge Trump for the partys 2024 presidential nod.
Ron DeSantis
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has brushed off suggestions that he will mount a presidential campaign in 2024, saying that his No. 1 priority is winning a second term in the governors mansion.
But he also hasnt explicitly ruled out the possibility, and unlike several other prospective GOP presidential contenders, he hasnt committed to forgoing a White House bid if Trump launches a comeback campaign.
And with his clout among Republicans on the rise, its possible that, if DeSantis ultimately decides to run in 2024, he may not be deterred by the former president.
Early polling shows him as the heavy favorite for the Republican presidential nomination if Trump doesnt run again. There are even a few recent surveys that show him topping Trump in a hypothetical primary match-up.
Mike Pence
Mike Pompeo
Larry Hogan
Ted Cruz
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Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
The White House Reveals Who It Most Fears Can Beat Trump In 2020
Theres no shortage of people aiming to deny Donald Trump re-election in 2020 And that, of course, is assuming he even finishes his first term in office. But the White House has tipped its hand, revealing the four individuals it thinks stand the best chance of challenging the president in four years. And while three of the four are more traditional, elected progressives in the federal government the one they fear the most might actually be the one guy closest to Trump himself fellow billionaire reality TV star Mark Cuban.
The New York Post reports that Trumps White House team has begun to keep tabs on the four individuals it thinks could post the biggest threat to a second term in office, something Trump is allegedly obsessed with.
Chief Trump advisor Steve Bannon is overseeing the operation, dispatching consultants to dig up dirt on Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper and Dallas Mavericks owner and Shark Tank host Mark Cuban, according to the Post.
The White House political department wants people to start looking into them, a source told the Post. Trump is obsessed with running for re-election.
Interestingly, much bigger names like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on not on the watch list, as the Trump team feels confident both would be too old to seek the White House. Ironically, Warren is three years younger than Trump himself.
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Vermont senator Bernie Sanders would beat Donald Trump if the 2020 election were held today, a new Fox News poll suggests.
The poll from the conservative news outlet shows Mr Sanders and former vice president Joe Biden who has not announced a run just yet are the only two democrats right now who would beat the president in a hypothetical head-to-head match up.
For his part, Mr Biden enjoys a bigger lead in the poll results, with a 7 point advantage over the incumbent president. Meanwhile, Mr Sanders received support from 44 per cent of those surveyed compared to Mr Trumps 41 per cent.
While Mr Biden and Mr Sanders are the only two to lead Mr Trump in the poll, the results show that the crowded democratic primary field has several other strong contenders.
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, for instance, both trail the president slightly in the Fox News survey, coming up just 2 per cent short in their own head-to-head scenarios.
Polls Point To Clear Top Tier
Joe Biden was the accepted frontrunner in this race throughout 2019. After serving as Barack Obama’s vice-president for eight years, he had strong name recognition and held a clear lead in national polls.
His numbers dipped at the start of 2020 though and Bernie Sanders overtook him in the RealClearPolitics national average after a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses. Biden, however, won by a big margin in South Carolina, which helped boost his poll numbers before he then swept the South on Super Tuesday.
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Elizabeth Warren Sherrod Brown Jeff Merkley
As a democratic socialist, Senator Sanders has no real allegiance to the Democratic Party it often seems his populist movement would just as soon burn the party down. But there are other populists who are less antagonistic to the Democratic Party not to mention who actually belong to it.
If she runs, Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts senator, would instantaneously be the Democrats putative front-runner. Her anti-corporate agenda has made her a fund-raising powerhouse, and she seems to have found an ideological sweet spot between the centrist Clinton and populist Sanders factions. Additionally, thanks to the Nevertheless she persisted meme, shes become a feminist heroine.
But Ms. Warren, wholl be 71 in 2020, is an ambivalent politician a longtime law professor, she didnt run for office until 2012 and its not clear that she has the proverbial fire in the belly for a presidential bid.
Sherrod Brown, an Ohio senator, hails from a crucial swing state and has strong labor backing. Hes never seemed interested in a presidential run until now. A finalist in the 2016 Democratic veepstakes, he would be formidable in Rust Belt states. His politics match the mood, and while he might not have the raw talent of Senator Warren, hed be a strong Plan B.
From Opinion: The Trickiness Of Electability
In this new weekly feature, our colleagues from The New York Timess Opinion section will share expert analysis and perspectives from across the political spectrum. In todays installment, theres more to read about why electability is so unpredictable.
There is a home base that all the conversation about the Democratic presidential primary comes back to in the end: Primary voters prioritize, above all, someone who can defeat President Trump.
In any election that features an incumbent president, the main goal of the out-of-power party is to nominate a candidate well-suited to defeating the incumbent. Thats why both Republican Party elites and less enthusiastic conservative voters got behind Mitt Romney after a series of polls in 2011 showed he was the only Republican beating President Barack Obama in head-to-head matchups.
This year, Democrats desire to replace the incumbent has reached a fever pitch, arguably higher than its ever been for either party. But paradigm-shifting presidents have complicated the idea of electability, as Adam Jentleson, a former deputy chief of staff for Senator Harry Reid, pointed out this week in an Op-Ed.
Mr. Obama won his first election despite being a black man who had admitted to using cocaine, who was caught on tape calling working-class whites bitter people who cling to guns and religion, and who sat in the pews with a pastor who declared, God damn America, Mr. Jentleson said.
Talmon Joseph Smith
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John Hickenlooper Steve Bullock
Some Democrats will be tempted to look beyond the Beltway for a savior. Thus the appeal of a certain type of pragmatic governor.
John Hickenlooper, in his second term as Colorado governor, has built a solid economic record there while also instituting tough gun control laws and overseeing the smooth introduction of legalized marijuana. Hes also evinced a willingness for bipartisanship that has served him well in purple Colorado. Hes an offbeat enough character that its possible to see him catching fire.
Steve Bullock is a second-term governor in deep-red Montana, and hed cast himself as someone whod help Democrats broaden their electoral map beyond the coasts. Its not a bad sales pitch. But Mr. Bullock isnt much of a salesman. One joke making the rounds about him goes that if you close your eyes while hes speaking, you hear Evan Bayh.
Rematch: Trump Vs Biden In 2024
How Does A Trump/Biden Re-Match Look Right Now? With former President Donald Trump still unofficially on the campaign trail for his rumored and unannounced 2024 presidential run, speculation about a Trump-Biden rematch is as prevalent as ever.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said this week that he would be shocked if the former president doesnt run again, noting that all the polling shows he would be the front-runner by a country mile.
Business Insider also reported this week that the former president recently asked advisers how he should go about attacking former Cabinet members and political allies who are considering running in 2024 yet another indication that Trump is looking to re-enter the White House.
Its the perfect time, too. President Joe Bidens approval ratings hit an all-time low this month, and other polls have repeatedly shown that former President Trump would win handily in a re-match assuming that political and economic situations remain the same.
This Is What the Polls Say
In March, as American voters were beginning to feel the pinch of rising inflation, a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll published by The Hill gave former President Donald Trump a six-point advantage over President Joe Biden and an even larger 11-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Will Biden Run?
Thats the big question and at this stage, some might argue that former President Donald Trumps candidacy is more certain than President Joe Bidens.
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Which States Will Decide This Election
As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.
Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.
Cory Booker Kirsten Gillibrand Amy Klobuchar Kamala Harris
Being the establishment candidate in the current political climate is the kiss of death. Which is why even candidates who fit that mold will do everything they can to avoid the label including co-sponsoring Mr. Sanderss Medicare for All.
Mr. Booker, a New Jersey senator, has seemingly been running for president since he was a Rhodes scholar at Oxford in the 90s. But some of the well-heeled backers he picked up along the way including Big Pharma and Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are now political poison in a Democratic primary. He may end up spending as much time distancing himself from his old supporters as cultivating new ones.
Ms. Gillibrand, a New York senator, is similarly well liked on Wall Street. Shes recast herself as a tough-talking liberal in recent years introducing legislation that would institute paid family leave but her obligations to the financial services sector will hamper her.
Kamala Harris, a freshman California senator, has become a liberal rock star with her tough questioning of Jeff Sessions and other Trump administration officials during Senate hearings. Its her record as California attorney general, her previous job, that could trip her up: She , the bank once headed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, for alleged foreclosure violations. Still, Ms. Harris seems the most promising of this group not least because she has less of a voting record her opponents can use against her.
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