What Polls Say About Trump 2024 Run As Ex
Trump, who has for years teased the possibility of another presidential bid, is reportedly hoping to capitalize off Biden’s waning poll numbers and announce his campaign this summer, even though prospective candidates typically wait until after the midterm elections to announce.
Biden’s popularity has been damaged by economic concerns including inflation and high gas prices, largely fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war, giving Republicans hope to not only retake majorities in Congress this year, but to defeat the president in 2024though the Supreme Court‘s overturning of Roe v. Wade has seen Democrats make a comeback in polling this week.
Should Trump announce his campaign in the coming weeks, he would instantly be favored to win the Republican Party primary, but would be in for a tight race against incumbent Biden, according to recent polling.
Will Donald Trump Win In 2020 American Are Split On His Chances Poll Shows
It seems that Americans are split on whether we’ll see a second term for President Donald Trump.
A poll from CNN conducted by SSRS and released on Sunday showed the an increasing number of folks think that Trump will win in 2020.
The poll released on Sunday asked: “As you may have heard, Donald Trump has decided to run for re-election. Please just give me your best guess, do you think he will win the presidential election in 2020, or do you think he will lose?”
Forty-six percent responded they thought Trump would win. Forty-seven percent thought Trump would lose, while 7 percent had no opinion. When asked the same question in March, 54 percent of respondents thought Trump would lose, while 40 percent thought he would win.
It’s worth noting, however, that the CNN poll asked respondents who they thought would win and not who they want to win. Trump’s approval rating remains relatively low. According to data-centric website FiveThirtyEightwhich aggregates public approval polls, weighting each survey for quality, recency, sample size and partisan leanTrump’s average approval rating came in around 41.8 percent on Sunday.
The CNN poll surveyed 1,009 U.S. adults from October 4 through October 7. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Does Any Of This Suggest That Under
No. This analysis finds that polls about public opinion on issues can be useful and valid, even if the poll overstates or understates a presidential candidates level of support by margins seen in the 2020 election. But this does not mean that pollsters should quit striving to have their surveys accurately represent Republican, Democratic and other viewpoints. Errors in the partisan composition of polls can go in both directions. As recently as 2012, election polls slightly underestimated Barack Obamas support.
Despite cautions from those inside and outside the profession, polling will continue to be judged, fairly or not, on the performance of preelection polls. A continuation of the recent underestimation of GOP electoral support would certainly do further damage to the fields reputation. More fundamentally, the goal of the public opinion research community is to represent the publics views, and anything within the professions control that threatens that goal should be remedied, even if the consequences for estimates on topics other than election outcomes are small. Pew Research Center is exploring ways to ensure we reach the correct share of Republicans and that they are comfortable taking our surveys. We are also trying to continuously evaluate whether Republicans and Trump voters or indeed, Democrats and Biden voters in our samples are fully representative of those in the population.
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Certification Of Electoral College Votes
The 117th United States Congress first convened on January 3, 2021, and was scheduled to count and certify the Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021. There were 222 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House there were 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and two independents in the Senate. Several Republican members of the House and Senate said they would raise objections to the reported count in several states, meeting the requirement that if a member from each body objects, the two houses must meet separately to discuss whether to accept the certified state vote. A statement from the vice president’s office said Pence welcomes the plan by Republicans to “raise objections and bring forward evidence” challenging the election results.
On December 28, 2020, Representative Louie Gohmert filed a lawsuit in Texas challenging the constitutionality of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, claiming Vice President Pence has the power and ability to unilaterally decide which slates of electoral votes get counted. The case was dismissed on January 1, 2021, for lack of both standing and jurisdiction. The plaintiffs filed an appeal, and the appeal was dismissed by a three-judge panel of the appeals court the next day.
Most Americans Do Not Want Biden Or Trump In 2024 Poll Finds
News Nation/Decision Desk HQ poll shows majority believe duo should not run again but they dont know who theyd prefer
Majorities of American voters do not want Joe Biden or Donald Trump to run in the next presidential election in 2024, according to a new poll.
More than 60% of voters and 30% of Democrats in the NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll said Biden should not run again. Among all voters, 57% said Trump should not run again. Among Republicans, that total was 26%.
But most of those polled do not know who they would like to run instead, either. The vice-president, Kamala Harris, and the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, were the leading named contenders.
Biden, 79 and the oldest president ever inaugurated, has said he intends to run for a second term.
Im a great respecter of fate, he said in December. Fate has intervened in my life many, many times. If Im in the health Im in now, if Im in good health, then in fact I would run again.
His first term has been beset by crises, from the withdrawal from Afghanistan to the Russian war in Ukraine, and from the coronavirus pandemic to strong economic headwinds at home.
The Republican assault on US elections and voting rights, led by Trump, has also played out during Bidens time in the White House.
Trump has suggested he will soon announce a third presidential run, possibly as a way of avoiding potential criminal charges over his election subversion efforts and the deadly Capitol attack.
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Trump Poll Tests His 2024 Comeback Map
The former president is targeting five swing states that are pivotal to his hopes of winning back the White House.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a September rally in Georgia, one of the five states that flipped to President Joe Biden in 2020. | Sean Rayford/Getty Images
11/23/2021 04:30 AM EST
As Donald Trump builds out a presidential-campaign-in-waiting, his team is focusing on an electoral strategy that relies on recapturing the five states that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020.
The five states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin delivered a total of 73 electoral votes in 2020, enough to produce a decisive Electoral College victory for Biden. Since then, Trump has held four rallies, endorsed dozens of candidates and played a key role in shaping contests that could put his allies in top offices in those states in 2024.
Trumps shadow campaign also recently polled Trump-Biden matchups in the five states, all of which were decided in 2020 by fewer than 3 percentage points. According to the poll, a memo of which was obtained by POLITICO, the former president led Biden in Arizona by 8 percentage points, Georgia by 3 points, Michigan by 12 points, Pennsylvania by 6 points and Wisconsin by 10 points.
The poll numbers send a message to those who think Trumps grip on the Republican Party is loosening, said Tony Fabrizio, a top GOP pollster who conducted the surveys for Trumps super PAC, Make America Great Again, Again!
Top Dem Super Pac To Party: It Could Get Much Worse
Biden has also publicly said he plans to run for reelection. The super PAC supporting him, Unite The Country, is similarly gearing up in the five states the Trump campaign has focused on, first with an eye on the midterms and then the presidential race in 2024.
Steve Schale, CEO for Unite The Country, said he had no reason to doubt Fabrizios polling for Trump as Bidens poll numbers have dropped for months. But Schale noted that midterm polling a year out is hardly predictive of what happens in a presidential election in three years.
There are historical headwinds were facing, that any president faces during a midterm: five of the last seven midterm elections have been wave cycles for the other party, Schale said.
He recalled that then-President Barack Obama won reelection after Democrats were crushed in his first midterm election in 2010, and predicted that, if Republicans recapture Congress, they will veer too far right and damage Trumps chances in 2024.
Still, after Democrats were humbled in Virginias statewide races earlier this month, Schale issued a memo to donors saying it was a wake-up call for the party and pledged a seven-figure ad campaign to tout Bidens accomplishments in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The polling from Fabrizio suggests that Biden could use the help. On 10 different issues ranging from immigration to gun control to the economy, Trump bests Biden in the swing states, often by double digits, according to the poll.
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Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
Attempts To Delay Or Deny Election Results
In November, Trump focused his efforts on trying to delay vote certifications at the county and state level. On December 2, Trump posted a 46-minute video to his social media in which he repeated his baseless claims that the election was “rigged” and fraudulent and called for either the state legislatures or the courts to overturn the results of the election and allow him to stay in office. He continued to apply pressure to elected Republicans in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in an unprecedented attempt to overturn the election result. Some commentators have characterized Trump’s actions as an attempted coup d’état or self-coup.
On December 15, the day after the electoral college vote, Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who was previously among those who would not recognize the election results, publicly accepted Biden’s win, saying, “Today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden.”
In a December 21 news conference, outgoing Attorney General William Barr disavowed several actions reportedly being considered by Trump, including seizing voting machines, appointing a special counsel to investigate voter fraud, and appointing one to investigate Hunter Biden.
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Will Trump Win In 2020 New Hampshire Poll Suggests He May Not Even Win Republican Primary
He may have triumphed in the 2016 election, but President Donald Trump continues to be hobbled by poor polling numbers. The latest figures to emerge suggest his re-election prospects, indeed his hopes of even gaining the Republican nomination, face an uphill challenge.
Just 47 percent of likely GOP voters in New Hampshire said they planned on voting for Trump in the 2020 Republican primary in a University of New Hampshire poll released Wednesday. The figure is well below the 64 percent of New Hampshire Democrats who said they would cast a vote for Barack Obama at the same early stage of his presidency in 2009.
Among Republicans, 23 percent said they would vote for a candidate other than Trump in the 2020 primary, compared to just five percent of Democrats who voiced the same opinion about Obama in 2009. Thirty percent of Republican voters said they were unsure who they would opt for in the first-in-the-nation primary in early 2020, according to the poll of 573 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Trump triumphed in the state’s primary last year, garnering 35 percent of the vote to best his nearest challenger, Ohio Governor John Kasich, by 19 percent.
Who Won The Presidential Debates
Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.
The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump’s combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.
Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump – a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel “annoyed”.
In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.
But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.
While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden’s performance was more impressive.
A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.
A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.
So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it’s unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.
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Whites Made Biden Competitive In Racially Diverse Sun Belt States
As the final votes were being counted, three Sun Belt states remained competitive between Biden and Trump: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. While their final outcomes also depended on nonwhite racial groups, white voting blocs in these states shifted since 2016 in ways that benefitted Biden. See Figure 4 and .
Take Arizona. It is a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996. While rapidly diversifying, its older white population has leaned heavily toward Republicans. This time was different white college graduate women and men flipped sharply toward Democrats, from 2016 Republican advantages of 2% and 12%, respectively, to 2020 Democratic advantages of 15% and 3%. Likewise, white noncollege men reduced their Republican support from 28% to 10%. In addition, Arizonas senior population flipped from Republican support to even Democratic-Republican support.
These shifts, as well as increased Democratic support among 18- to 29-year-olds and continued Democratic support from the states Latino or Hispanic voters, contributed to Bidens vote gains in Arizona.
Georgia, a longtime deep red Republican state, has been inching toward battleground status due to its large and growing Democratic-leaning Black population. Yet its strong white Republican margins have led to GOP presidential wins since 1996. This year, those white Republican margins were reduced enough to make the state competitive.
Yes Of Course Donald Trump Can Win In 2024
When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably and immediately ask some version of this question: Is he going to run again? And can he win?
The he there just in case youve spent the last six years on another planet is Donald Trump.
And the answers to those questions are probably yes and definitely. As in, yes, Trump is probably going to run for president again in 2024. And, yes, he would have a very real chance of winning.
Lets take the second half of that question first. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump and President Joe Biden each at 45% among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, results that are largely unchanged since the last time WSJ asked the question in November.
The simple fact is that if the 2020 presidential race was re-run today, it would effectively be a pure toss up.
Which, if you think about it, makes sense. While Biden took more than 300 electoral votes, his margins in a series of swing states like Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were decidedly narrow. And had those states gone for Trump, he would have almost certainly been reelected.
Now, that is putting the cart before the horse. So, lets return to the first question: Will Trump run?
If you believe him, then yes.
But, its true.
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