How Trump And Biden Supporters Would React To Victory And Defeat
When asked about their reactions to the outcome of the November 2020 election, voters say they would have more positive reactions to Biden winning the election than to Trump being reelected president. And voters reactions to Trumps possible reelection are more intense both positively and negatively than to a Biden victory.
About half of registered voters say they would be excited or relieved if Biden was elected president, while 47% say they would be disappointed or angry.
Among voters who say they would react positively to a Biden victory, far more would be relieved than excited . Among those who expect to react negatively, more say they would be disappointed than angry .
More voters say they would react to a Trump victory with negative than positive emotions. Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump wins reelection than if Biden is elected president .
Yet somewhat more voters also say they would be excited by a Trump victory than a Biden victory.
Although both Trump and Biden supporters express positive reactions to their own candidate winning the November election, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say to say they would be excited if their candidate won the 2020 election than Biden supporters are of their own candidate.
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The controversial image maker whose own baggage includes resigning from Bill Clintons re-election campaign in 1996 amid a prostitution scandal called Trump one of Americas great presidents with immense achievements.
But the greater tribute is how he defied almost every establishment in the country to achieve what America needed, and our people demanded, writes Morris.
He said voters like Trumps more popular tax, energy and immigration policies better than those of Biden and the Democrats, while crediting the ex-president with bringing more Hispanic voters into the GOP fold.
He defied the economic establishment by getting Congress to pass a massive tax cut, skillfully crafted to aim at the middle class, the working poor, and small businesses. The establishment said cut taxes on the wealthy, and it will trickle down to the rest of society. But Trump knew that trickle-down doesnt always happen. So he made sure his tax cuts were the first in recent history to target the lower middle class the working class. Trump signed a law giving a tax credit of $2,000 per child, Morris writes.
Proving that Trump would do better? That one is easy. We know that Trump would do better, because when he was president, he did do better, Morris said.
He said America was energy independent when Trump left office.
Biden Improved On Clintons Gains
Many Trump supporters have expressed disbelief that Biden won, and by such margins. But Bidens campaign won by persuading just enough swing voters, making gains in unexpected states and rebuilding the coveted blue wall that toppled in 2016.
According to CNNs national exit poll, 94% of self-described Democrats voted for Biden in 2020 compared to Hillary Clintons 89% of self-described Democrats in 2016, and 89% of self-described liberals, compared to Clintons 84%.
Bidens victory was really won on the basis of support from moderates and independents, though. He received 64% of votes cast by self-described moderates, 12 points ahead of Clinton, and won independents by 13 points a group that Clinton lost by 4 points.
Biden continued to build on the groundwork laid out by Clinton in historically red states like Arizona and Georgia. Clinton did not win Arizona or Georgia in 2016, but she did perform better than Obama in both. The swing toward Biden in those states was more than double his national swing, CNN reported.
Wasserman said he predicted prior to the election that Arizona and Georgia would flip, but the similar states of Texas and Florida would not due to their Hispanic electorate.
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Attempts To Delay Or Deny Election Results
In November, Trump focused his efforts on trying to delay vote certifications at the county and state level. On December 2, Trump posted a 46-minute video to his social media in which he repeated his baseless claims that the election was “rigged” and fraudulent and called for either the state legislatures or the courts to overturn the results of the election and allow him to stay in office. He continued to apply pressure to elected Republicans in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in an unprecedented attempt to overturn the election result. Some commentators have characterized Trump’s actions as an attempted coup d’état or self-coup.
On December 15, the day after the electoral college vote, Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who was previously among those who would not recognize the election results, publicly accepted Biden’s win, saying, “Today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden.”
In a December 21 news conference, outgoing Attorney General William Barr disavowed several actions reportedly being considered by Trump, including seizing voting machines, appointing a special counsel to investigate voter fraud, and appointing one to investigate Hunter Biden.
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Asked about Morris book, Trump told The Post, Ive known Dick Morris for a longtime and his father was a great real estate lawyer who represented me very well. Dick is a very talented person, and I would ask for his advice and opinions on matters of politics. Its what he loves and does best, and hes very good at it.
On another issue important to voters, Morris said Trump and the Republicans have a strong hand to play as the law-and-order party and paint Biden and the Democrats as soft on crime during the fall midterms and in 2024.
He said the left wing of the Democratic Partys campaign to defund the police is a gift to Trump and the GOP.
The crime issue is particularly toxic for the Democrats, because it is obvious to voters that it was not nearly as bad a problem before Biden was elected. Back in 2019, and before, crime had fallen out of the headlines and faded in popular consciousness. But after Bidens election, the movement to defund the police, and the vilification of dedicated, responsible, fair, and hardworking police officers has set the crime rate soaring. So who is to blame? Figure it out!, Morris said.
The Left wants to cut the number of uniformed police and replace them with social workers and psychologists to stem violence and escalation. So the next time you worry that a criminal is trying to break into your home, call 911 and wait for a social worker to arrive, he said.
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Donald Trump Will Win Re
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach .
When I said that I think Trump is going to win in 2016, I also said that, if you think 2016 is weird, just wait for 2020. Well, if you think 2020 is weird, just wait until 2024. You aint seen nothing yet.
Thats Bond King billionaire and DoubleLine Capital boss Jeffrey Gundlach striking an ominous tone in comments he reportedly made this week at Schwabs 2020 IMPACT conference,
Gundlach was quoted by Financial Advisor magazine as saying that he expects widening economic inequality to bring about some sort of revolution by 2027, with the 2024 presidential election directly in the path of massive social, economic and political change.
For now, Gundlach, in contrast to what the polls are showing, believes, just as he did back in 2016, that next weeks election will go Trumps way.
Mind you, my conviction is way lower than it was four years ago, he explained. But back in , when Trump was little more than an asterisk in the betting odds, I predicted he was going to win. This one is much more murky, but in my eyes it favors a Trump win.
And while some would say Trumps re-election poses a risk to markets and global stability, Gundlach sees it differently. You might dislike Trump or some of his policies, but risk is not what youre getting with him, particularly compared to turning the presidency over to another party, and particularly when that partys candidate isnt saying what some of his policy positions are, he said.
Murphy On Importance Of Electoral Count Act Reform: The Threat That 2024 Will Be The Last Year Of American Democracy Is Not Hyperbole
WASHINGTONU.S SenatorChris Murphy on Thursday spoke on the U.S. Senate floor on therecently introduced bipartisan legislationto reform and modernize the antiquated Electoral Count Act of 1887 and theimportance of its passage to prevent a stolen election in 2024.
Murphy highlighted thegroundwork former President Trump and his supporters are laying to underminethe results of the 2024 election:What is happening all across the country right now is a complete, totalrejection of democracy by Trump supporters and his endorsed candidates. Now,they aren’t representative of the entire Republican Party, but unfortunately,they are winning primaries all across the country. And they’re winningelections all across the country. And these Trump loyalists, they are notinterested in the winner of an election becoming president if that winner isn’tDonald Trump. They effectively want Donald Trump installed as a monarch, andthey’re willing to just throw out democracy if that’s what is necessary to keeptheir leader in powerThere is just a very well-developed and well-organizedmovement, where Trump supporters are learning from his inability to overturnthe election in 2020, and they are galvanizing themselves to leave nothing tochance in 2024. The operation to install Trump in the White House in 2025, ifhe runs, will be more sophisticated and better organized than 2020.
A full transcript of hisremarks can be found below:
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Trumps Presidential Approval Rating Has Been Stubbornly Low
Head-to-head polling between Trump and any prospective Democratic nominee seems nearly useless at this point. Aside from Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, many Americans havent yet formed their opinions on the various Democrats seeking their partys nomination.
But presidential approval ratings have always been strongly linked to voting behavior, and everybody knows Trump. Here is the RealClearPolitics average of the presidents approval rating, from the start of his presidency to now:
Trump has been consistently unpopular throughout his first two years. At his best, so far, he was 7 points more unpopular than popular. A recent uptick has swiftly eroded. And as Voxs Ezra Klein wrote last summer, this has been in defiance of a relatively solid economy:
Trumps poll numbers are probably 20 points below where a president would typically be with consumer sentiment as high as it is now, says John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University who has done work benchmarking presidential approval to economic indicators.
So here, then, is what we can say: Judged on the economy, which is the traditional driver of presidential approval, Donald Trumps poll numbers should be much, much higher than they are now. Far from finding a winning strategy, he seems to have found a losing one despite holding a winning hand.
Yes Of Course Donald Trump Can Win In 2024
When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably and immediately ask some version of this question: Is he going to run again? And can he win?
The he there just in case youve spent the last six years on another planet is Donald Trump.
And the answers to those questions are probably yes and definitely. As in, yes, Trump is probably going to run for president again in 2024. And, yes, he would have a very real chance of winning.
Lets take the second half of that question first. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump and President Joe Biden each at 45% among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, results that are largely unchanged since the last time WSJ asked the question in November.
The simple fact is that if the 2020 presidential race was re-run today, it would effectively be a pure toss up.
Which, if you think about it, makes sense. While Biden took more than 300 electoral votes, his margins in a series of swing states like Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were decidedly narrow. And had those states gone for Trump, he would have almost certainly been reelected.
Now, that is putting the cart before the horse. So, lets return to the first question: Will Trump run?
If you believe him, then yes.
But, its true.
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What The Latest National Polls Say
The latest national polls from Global Strategy Group, , show that Trumps approval ratings are in the negative on everything from the economy to the handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Forty-seven per cent of respondents disapproved of his handling of the economy, 57 per cent disapproved of his handling of the pandemic and 54 per cent disapproved of how he handled the protests stemming from George Floyds death.
An Ipsos survey out of the U.S. , asked respondents, if the 2020 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
Thirty-eight per cent said Trump and 46.2 per cent said Biden. The age demographic that gave Trump the most support was aged 65 and over . Respondents aged 18-24 were more likely to favour Biden .
And the latest poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows Biden holding a nine-point lead over Trump.
Bidens campaign manager, Jen OMalley Dillon, recently warned supporters that despite the Democrats strong poll numbers, winning is still not set in stone.
There is still a long way to go in this campaign, on Oct. 14. We think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer.
Trump Can’t Decide If He Won Or Lost 2020 Election
Based on his contradicting statements, it seems former President Donald Trump can’t make up his mind as to whether or not he won or lost the 2020 presidential election.
Trump has repeatedly made baseless claims alleging that the election was “rigged” and that he should have won with the 72 million ballots cast for him and running mate Mike Pence.
The belief that the election was stolen from Trump became the grounds on which a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol building on January 6, 2021 in an effort to block Congress from certifying the electoral college votes, which would go on to cement President Joe Biden‘s victory with 306 votes to Trump’s 232.
Although Trump has tried to distance himself from the rioters, he has continued to assert that he won the 2020 election. But the former president has also admitted defeat in a number of public comments.
Most recently, in an interview published by The Atlantic on Monday, Trump discussed his relationship with the president of South Korea, saying at one point, “when I didn’t win the election, he had to be the happiest.”
He also acknowledged his loss momentarily during a December 2021 interview with The Victory Channel’s FlashPoint, when he discussed the construction of the border wall between the U.S. and Mexico.
“Shockingly, we were supposed to win easily at 64 million votes, and we got 75 million votes, and we didn’t win,” Trump said.
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Trump May Have Something Else In Mind
This would be Trumps path to a legitimate victory. But he may also have something else up his sleeve, based on the expectation that mail votes will be more Democratic-leaning while in-person votes will be more Republican-leaning.
Trump has heavily implied that he hopes to declare victory on election night and then, if slower counts of mail ballots tip the key states toward Biden, he will attempt to disparage those mail votes as fraudulent or illegitimate.
Big problems and discrepancies with Mail In Ballots all over the USA. Must have final total on November 3rd.
Donald J. Trump
If Trump goes down this path, he will be trying to erase millions of legitimately cast mail votes in an attempt to effectively steal the election from Biden.
You might be comforted by the idea that state election officials are too professional to let this happen. But the president is technically named by the Electoral College and those electors themselves can be named by state legislatures, which in several key states are controlled by Republicans.
Theres a catch for Trump, though. Due to the differing ways states carry out their vote counts, the scenario that has been called a red mirage a seeming Republican lead on election night that gradually vanishes as more Democratic mail votes are slowly counted is only likely to occur in a few key swing states this year. Most notably, its the classic trio of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, all of which have Republican legislatures.
Registered Voters Divided On Which Candidate Will Win
Overall, registered voters are divided over who they think will win the 2020 November election: While 50% of voters believe that Trump will win the presidential election, 48% predict a victory for Biden.
And although voters predictions for who will win the presidential election largely align with their candidate preference, voters who support Trump or lean toward voting for him are slightly more likely than Biden supporters to say that their candidate will win .
Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, majorities of voters consistently expected a Hillary Clinton victory. In August of 2016, 55% said Clinton would win, compared with 42% who expected Trump to win.
Trump supporters are far more confident their candidate will win today than they were four years ago. Currently, 90% of Trump supporters expect him to win at about the same point in the campaign four years ago, only 74% of Trump supporters said he would prevail over Clinton.
Today, voters who are more certain of their choice in candidate are more likely to expect that their candidate will win the 2020 election. Nearly all strong Trump supporters expect him to win, compared with 77% of his more moderate supporters. Similarly, among Biden supporters, those who support Biden strongly are more likely than those who support him moderately to expect him to win the November election.
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