Us Presidential Election Odds Tracker
- See the historical and current odds to win the 2024 Presidential election
- Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump are the betting favorites two years out, with incumbent Joe Biden is third
- Use the graphs below to see how the odds have changed over time
The next US Presidential Election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 25th, 2024. Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, who started his presidency at age 77, will be 81 on Election Day. In a rare occurrence, the incumbent was not favored in the opening election odds, and he continues to lag behind as campaign season grows nearer.
The graphs and tables, below, show the odds for President-Elect Biden and all other candidates on the board.
Get Up To $1,000 Back on Any BetEven if Your Bet Loses!
Will Trump Run Again
Despite his defeat last fall, many believe Trump still holds the keys to the future of the GOP. The former president has retained an extremely loyal base of supporters, and his popularity among Republicans does not seem to have been damaged by his checkered political past.
Trump was impeached twice during his first and only term in the White House, and his four-year stint was marred by a seemingly endless array of scandals. Trump was rather fortunate to escape his first three years in office without a legitimate disaster, but that changed last year when the pandemic upended everything.
Trumps disastrous response to the pandemic may have ultimately cost him his chance at re-election. The economy, which had been Trumps primary selling point beforehand, subsequently went into the tank. His approval rating among non-GOP voters was questionable to begin with. The pandemic was likely the final nail in his coffin.
Trump Iowa rally in the works:
However, in spite of it all, Trump may be able to win his partys nomination again in 2024 if he wants to. While some within the party may have decided to move on, there does not seem to be a very obvious heir to his throne. Trump is still the single most popular Republican in the country.
How Do I Bet On The 2024 Election
Again, you can’t, not legally anyway. Some offshore bookmakers offer lines, but we absolutely do not recommend that. There’s much more risk involved, and you can’t be certain you’ll receive any winnings or be able to withdraw your money. If you want to get in on the action, try out DraftKings Election Pool!
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What Do The Betting Experts Say
Some in politics say experts are not worth listening to, but when it comes to betting on the US election it may be worth paying attention to someone who trades these markets for a living. Theres no one better informed than Paul Krishnamurty, who predicts a landslide win for Biden but feels Trumps performance in the final debate was his best ever.
Krishnamurty said, Set against the vitriolic climate in US politics in recent years, the final debate was a triumph. The new rules worked. Interruptions were rare and forgivable. Arguments were clearly stated and the discussion illuminated the vast differences in philosophy and agendas between the candidates.
I’ve watched every single Trump debate since the summer of 2015. This was easily his best-ever performance, the first time he’s ever been disciplined. It may well help with that important segment of voters that lean Republican, have conservative instincts, yet can’t abide their erratic, anarchic leader.
That said, Biden will be happy enough. He achieved his primary goal: avoiding any disasters. He came across as passionate and informed. On the two most important issues under discussion healthcare and Covid-19 he won.
The Rock’s Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
What would election betting odds be without some celebrity long-shots? Kanye West emerged as a massive underdog candidate in the last election and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is currently sitting at a relatively high +4,000, which is tied with former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
The former WWE champion and current action movie star has shown interest in politics and even stated in a Vanity Fair interview that he has done research into what that could entail.
However, he’s also been very frank about his lack of experience in politics saying, You know, at the end of the day, I dont know the first thing about politics…I dont know the first thing about policy.”
The Rock might be a longshot but Trump has opened the door for future celebrity presidential candidates, especially ones oozing with charisma and money.
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What The Current Lines Tell Us About The Chance Of Trump Winning In 2024
The odds suggest that Trump will lose in 2024 , but they offer compelling payouts for bettors who want to take a chance. Still, with the Vegas Trump odds provided, it is difficult for the former POTUS to be considered a sure bet, and he is favored to lose across all three of our top-rated sportsbooks.
Trumps Fixation On The Past Puts His Political Future In Limbo
But some Trump allies believe he may ultimately opt against a run, either for health reasons or, if Bidens poll numbers rebound, because he doesnt want to risk a second loss, even though he has yet to acknowledge the first defeat.
So far, a slew of prominent Republicans have begun making overt moves to run in 2024. Whether they will abandon their own White House dreams if the former president were to run again is another matter entirely.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sens. Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz are among those who made appearances in early voting states, and some have started securing top political consultants. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has hinted shed mount a bid but wouldnt run against Trump if he decides to enter the race. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has suggested he may run even if Trump does. And there is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as an heir-apparent to Trump and the populist MAGA movement.
Things may be just as uncertain on the Democratic side of the ledger. If Biden opts against seeking reelection, the field may not clear out for Vice President Kamala Harris, who has yet to find her political footing in the role. Two 2020 candidates, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker , each have held recent high-profile events on hot button election topics.
If Biden opts to seek a second term, a serious primary challenge would be unlikely.
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Us Election 2020 Betting Odds
- The US Election is set to take place on November 3, 2020
- Donald Trump is hoping to be re-elected for a second term as president
- Joe Biden is the Democratic nomination and leads the polls in America
- Have we seen the last of Donald Trump in the White House?
Can Donald Trump retain his position as the President of the United States or will Democratic elect Joe Biden become POTUS?
Kamala Harris’ Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
Harris has seen her odds tumble but she remains the Democrat favorite if Biden decides not to run again. The Smarkets exchange gives her a 16.1% chance of becoming the party nominee, lower than Biden’s 26% but significantly higher than third-place Buttigieg, who sits at just 6.1%.
Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and is struggling to break ground with her two biggest projects, border migration and national voting reform. In November, her approval rating sank to a comically low 28%, the lowest of any VP in modern memory a list that includes Dick Cheney.
Harris was previously on the U.S. Senate and has also served as the Attorney General of California. At 57 years of age, Harris is entering her political prime and ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 before dropping out to endorse Biden.
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How The Model Works
To estimate Trumps chances of being re-elected in 2020, my model takes Trumps current approval ratings and looks for approval ratings that roughly match these numbers within a comparable window of time in the historical data for each of the previous 11 administrations. Ive excluded Kennedy because he was assassinated prior to re-election, and Roosevelt because, as mentioned above, Gallup did not poll for job approval in 1944 due to World War II.
If the model finds a set of poll numbers that roughly match the latest numbers for Trump, it next computes the probability of re-election based on a determination as to whether Trumps latest approval numbers seem more characteristic of a president who later went on to be re-elected or whether they seem more characteristic of one who later went on not to be re-elected.
For instance, say the model is looking to compute the probability of Trump being re-elected as of October 20, 2017, which was 1,110 days prior to Election Day on November 3, 2020. To do this, it will scour the approval ratings for each of the previous 11 administrations and look for any past presidents with similar approval ratings at around 1,110 days prior to Election Day.
Since the model looks to calculate the probability that Trump will be re-elected given a particular range of job approval numbers, the final calculation is based on four pieces of information:
What Kind Of Election Prop Bets Are There
The most straightforward political prop bet for the US election is simply ‘Who will win the 2020 US presidential election?’. Odds are then presented currently, Trump is at +175 and Biden is at -200. This makes Trump the underdog, and for you, that means if you bet $100 on Trump winning, and he does, you win $175 . Other prop bets include how states will vote, how long it will take for final results to reveal and many more!
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Relax A Trump Comeback In 2024 Is Not Going To Happen
Weve seen this presidents type before. They always fade away.
12/10/2020 04:30 AM EST
Altitude is a column by POLITICO founding editor John Harris, offering weekly perspective on politics in a moment of radical disruption.
Donald Trump lost the presidency, but his opponents so far have not achieved the victory they want most: A fatal puncturing of the Trump movement, a repudiation so complete that it severs his astonishing grip on supporters and leaves him with no choice but to slink offstage and into the blurry past.
For now, Trump dominates conversations about both present and future. His outlandish claims that he won the election except for comprehensive fraud have helped raise more than $200 million since Election Day. Many of his partisans share his dream of recapturing the presidency in 2024. For those who despise him, to paraphrase a famous Democratic speech, it seems clear the work goes on, the cause endures, the fear still lives, and the nightmare shall never die.
Except it will die most likely with more speed and force than looks possible today.
There are three primary reasons to be deeply skeptical that Trumps moment of dominating his party and public consciousness will continue long after Jan. 20.
This brings the mind back to the figure who is the most vivid antecedent of Trump: Joe McCarthy.
Sen. Joe McCarthy gestures as he indicates he is not impressed with an answer by Army Secretary Robert Stevens during a hearing May 3, 1954.|AP Photo
Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds
Will we see the resurgence of a trump type candidate in 2024? Will it be a version of Trump vs. Biden 2024 Presidential election? So, over the next few years, expect to see the odds changing frequently, but we do believe that the odds will remain fairly split between the two until November 2024.
Currently, Donald Trumps betting odds have him as the third favorite candidate to win the 2024 election, but those seem to be falling by the day with how the coronavirus handling has been going. ÇWhile this is impossible, we do remain confident the Trump era isnt over yet.
Other Trump specials pertaining to the election are to win or lose the popular vote and electoral college.
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Political Science Provides President Trump A Chance
But its a different story for some political science models. These, like Allan Lichtmans The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, show that President Trump is in pretty good shape, an even-bet for another four years.
Orignally, Lichtman and a Russian scientist, using methods similar to predicting earthquakes, developed a model that explained the factors that led to each presidential election victory from 1860 to 1980. Then, they used this formula to predict each election from 1984 to 2012.
Lichtman actually predicted Trump would win in 2016. There is a caveat, as Trump did not win the popular vote, though he did take the Electoral College. Moreover, the model predicted that Gore would win the popular vote in 2000, which he did. But again, the GOP owned the Electoral College.
So what are the keys to a presidential popular vote win? Here are the lucky 13 that Lichtman provides.
Donald Trump Is Now The Odds
So Donald Trump is now the odds-on favorite to be president of the United States in 2025.
I know that lede sentence was also the headline, but I wanted you to read it one more time just to let it really settle in the ol noggin before pressing forward.
The twice-impeached, disgraced loser who was schlonged in the 2020 election, tried to stay in power against the will of the people, and then came ten cowardly Republican senators away from being disqualified from ever running for office again, is now more likely than any other person in the world to take the next oath of office on the Capitol steps on January 20, 2025.
How is that for some weird shit?
Now Im sure some will roll their eyes when this headline comes across the Twitter feed. Attribute this article to my raging Trump Derangement Syndrome or The Bulwarks Cady Heron-level obsession with Mar-a-Lagos in-house wedding toastmaster.
But this aint about my compulsions. Its the actual, real-world reality being presented by those who have the most skin in the game.
Both the major off-shore gambling quants and the online trading markets have moved in Mr. Trumps favor in the past couple weeks.
Over at Predict-It, on the question of who will win the 2024 election, Trump was the most expensive bet going for $0.28 while the incumbent is selling for $0.26. At Smarkets.com, the worm turned on October 12 with Trump moving past Biden as most likely to win in 2024 and hes expanded his advantage in the past few weeks.
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Gamblers Outside The Us Take Presidential Odds On A Wild Ride
Betting on the election is not legal in the United States. But elsewhere, the odds swung wildly between President Trump and Joe Biden as bettors tried to stay a step ahead of prognosticators.
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While voters throughout the country were glued to their TVs and reflexively refreshing news and political sites on Tuesday night, a few of the cannier ones were paying more attention to something else. The betting odds.
You cannot bet legally on political races in the United States, but in Britain and elsewhere there is a thriving market as bettors look to make money on whether Candidate A or Candidate B wins a big race.
Many, many bettors are following the race for the presidency between Donald Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. They are consuming a wide variety of data, and their collective wisdom, as reflected in where they put their money, can move the betting lines quickly. As a result, betting odds can be a canary in a coal mine, catching on to a surge by one candidate before some pundits even notice.
On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, political bettors, at least those in jurisdictions where they could bet legally, went on a wild ride.
Last week, an unidentified bettor wagered a million pounds, or about $1.3 million, on Biden on Betfair. If successful, the bet would return the million, plus 540,000 pounds more .
How Does The Us Presidential Election Work
The United States uses Electoral Colleges to determine the president and vice president. The candidate with 270 Electoral College votes takes the presidency. Each state is assigned a set of votes based on the number of representatives in the House of Representatives, with two more added for the senators each state has in Congress. The candidate with the most votes for a particular state will take all of the Electoral College votes to reach that magic number of 270. But just because you win the presidency doesnt mean you won the nations popular vote.
There have been five instances when the winner hasnt had more votes by the people. While three of those instances happened during the 1800s , weve seen it happen in two of the last four presidential elections: George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016 won against Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, respectively.
And before you ask, yes, global bookmakers offer bets on different party combinations for the Electoral College and popular vote.=
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