What The Numbers Say About Trumps Chances At Reelection
First, consider that the share of voters supporting third-party candidates is much smaller in 2020 than it was in 2016. In 2020, former Vice President Joe BidenGary Earl JohnsonBiden broadened Democratic base, cut into Trump coalition: studyNew Mexico lawmakers send recreational marijuana bills to governorJudge throws out murder convictions, releases men jailed for 24 yearsMORE in 2016. One survey shows that 47 percent of Stein and Johnson supporters will vote for Biden, while 20 percent plan to vote for Trump or support another third-party candidate in 2020. If that lead for Biden holds, Trump could lose in November.
If Biden can maintain his advantage among Stein and Johnson voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, then those states will return to the Democratic column in 2020 and Biden will be elected president. However, it is difficult to predict how third-party voters will break in 2020 and who they will break for in these three states. At least we know why the Trump campaign is actively supporting Kanye West for president.
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Talking Transitions: Perspectives For First
This three-hour event investigated a key moment in every presidency
The Miller Center joined the Partnership for Pubic Service’s Center for Presidential Transition to explore safe and effective presidential transition to first-term and second-term administrations. The event featured perspectives on transition planning, managing transitions during crises, and the complexities of shifting from campaigning to governing. Appearing were experts such as Joshua Bolten, Andy Card, Denis McDonough, Mack McLarty, Stephen Hadley, Lisa Monaco, John Podesta, Barbara Perry, Melody Barnes, Alexis Herman, Valerie Jarrett, Karen Hughes, and Margaret Spellings.
Incumbent Presidents Tend To Get Re
The fact is that only 5/50 presidents did not win a second term including George Bush Senior, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, Herbert Hoover, and William Taft. Presidents that serve during times of turmoil, especially when it comes to a domestic recession or difficult economic environment, usually have a difficult time winning re-election.
At other times, the presidents above were simply unable to make their marks on history and capture enough popularity to win a second term in office. Given all the other points discussed in this video, the tides are in most definitely in President Trumps favor.
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Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters
As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.
In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.
Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .
The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.
Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.
However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.
Do Republicans Agree With Trumps Demand For A Do
By all appearances, Donald Trump is looking ahead to 2024 and gearing up for yet another Republican presidential campaign. Whats more interesting, however, is his apparent belief that he might not have to wait that long to return to the White House. HuffPost highlighted the former presidents latest pitch:
If anyone needed more evidence of Donald Trumps mind-bending view of reality, on Monday he demanded to be declared president nearly two years after the election he decisively lost. But he was also open to another option. In a minimal alternative solution, someone must immediately launch a do-over election, he said in a message on Truth Social.
Yes, nearly 22 months after losing by a fairly wide margin, Trump turned to his Twitter-like platform again yesterday to complain incoherently about the FBI and Hunter Bidens laptop. The Republican concluded his missive, Declare the rightful winner or, and this would be the minimal solution, declare the 2020 Election irreparably compromised and have a new Election, immediately!
That was shortly before noon. In the middle of the night according to the timestamp, 1:46 a.m. eastern Trump returned to the subject. After more incoherent FBI/laptop whining, the former president again wrote, Declare the rightful winner, or hold a new Election, NOW!
For reasons unknown, hes apparently become fixated on this anew.
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How Does Lichtmans 13 Keys Model Work
The 13 keys to the White Houseis an index of true or false responses to a set of questions, based on a simple pattern recognition algorithm.
True answers favour the re-election of the incumbent, while false answers favour the challenger.
When six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
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How Trump And Biden Supporters Would React To Victory And Defeat
When asked about their reactions to the outcome of the November 2020 election, voters say they would have more positive reactions to Biden winning the election than to Trump being reelected president. And voters reactions to Trumps possible reelection are more intense both positively and negatively than to a Biden victory.
About half of registered voters say they would be excited or relieved if Biden was elected president, while 47% say they would be disappointed or angry.
Among voters who say they would react positively to a Biden victory, far more would be relieved than excited . Among those who expect to react negatively, more say they would be disappointed than angry .
More voters say they would react to a Trump victory with negative than positive emotions. Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump wins reelection than if Biden is elected president .
Yet somewhat more voters also say they would be excited by a Trump victory than a Biden victory.
Although both Trump and Biden supporters express positive reactions to their own candidate winning the November election, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say to say they would be excited if their candidate won the 2020 election than Biden supporters are of their own candidate.
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Wisconsin: Jay Schroeder And Amy Loudenbeck
Unlike in Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, in Wisconsin the secretary of state does not oversee elections. That responsibility belongs to the Wisconsin Elections Commission, the bipartisan state agency created by Republicans.
Schroeder and Loudenbeck, however, have both called for the dismantling of the commission.
Both candidates have instead called for the secretary of states office to oversee and administer elections. In Wisconsin, that office has not had responsibility for elections since 1974. Changing that would require approval by the Republican-controlled Legislature and the governor. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has said he would not approve such changes, but he is up for re-election this fall, and all of his Republican opponents have vowed to abolish the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Other state Republicans have also aggressively criticized the agency following Bidens 2020 win in the state.
While Trump has not made an endorsement in the states Republican primary, hes been heavily involved in persuading other Republican lawmakers in Wisconsin to continue investigating the results of the 2020 election.
In an interview with NBC News, Schroeder, who was the Republican nominee for secretary of state in 2018, wouldnt acknowledge whether Biden won the state in 2020. Biden beat Trump in Wisconsin by 20,600 votes.
I wouldnt have signed off on the results, he said.
There would have to be proof, he said.
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Us Election 2020 Betting Odds
- The US Election is set to take place on November 3, 2020
- Donald Trump is hoping to be re-elected for a second term as president
- Joe Biden is the Democratic nomination and leads the polls in America
- Have we seen the last of Donald Trump in the White House?
Can Donald Trump retain his position as the President of the United States or will Democratic elect Joe Biden become POTUS?
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What Kind Of Election Prop Bets Are There
The most straightforward political prop bet for the US election is simply Who will win the 2020 US presidential election?. Odds are then presented currently, Trump is at +175 and Biden is at -200. This makes Trump the underdog, and for you, that means if you bet $100 on Trump winning, and he does, you win $175 . Other prop bets include how states will vote, how long it will take for final results to reveal and many more!
Certification Of Electoral College Votes
The 117th United States Congress first convened on January 3, 2021, and was scheduled to count and certify the Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021. There were 222 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House there were 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and two independents in the Senate. Several Republican members of the House and Senate said they would raise objections to the reported count in several states, meeting the requirement that if a member from each body objects, the two houses must meet separately to discuss whether to accept the certified state vote. A statement from the vice president’s office said Pence welcomes the plan by Republicans to “raise objections and bring forward evidence” challenging the election results.
On December 28, 2020, Representative Louie Gohmert filed a lawsuit in Texas challenging the constitutionality of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, claiming Vice President Pence has the power and ability to unilaterally decide which slates of electoral votes get counted. The case was dismissed on January 1, 2021, for lack of both standing and jurisdiction. The plaintiffs filed an appeal, and the appeal was dismissed by a three-judge panel of the appeals court the next day.
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Trump Transits And Progressions For 2020
Continuing, in late September, early October 2020, tertiary progressed Jupiter and ascendant make hard aspect to his Saturn. This astrology indicates some sort of curtailment or thwarted success in life, typically by a coming to reality situation. One either reassesses things at this point and adjusts, or they throw in the towel. Graphics are shown at the end of this article.
In mid-October, solar arc directed Mars makes hard aspect to his natal Mars. Here is where conflicts, misfortune and/or accidents or injuries come into play. Pettiness and immaturity can result.
During October also the Nodes aspect Trumps Sun and Moon, and Saturn makes exact opposition to his Venus. This seems like a singularly important time for Trump and his relationships and charisma are certain to be tested here.
In late November 2020, already after the election, secondary progressed Mars aspects natal Mars, similar to mid-October above. If there were to be a contested results situation, this would certainly corroborate it.
Moving into 2021, Saturn and Pluto start to make long-term aspects on his Pluto, Venus and Saturn. With Venus ruling his tenth house, and Saturn his sixth and seventh houses, Trumps reputation, marriage and health seem to be at risk. He might be able to turn it around to his advantage, but not without significant cost or effort.
Will The 2020 Winner Be Empowered To Make Big Changes
A presidential election must meet three conditions to bring a dramatic alteration in government policy, writes the Miller Center’s Michael Nelson on the History News Network
Not many presidential elections usher in periods of dramatic change in public policy, significantly altering the role of the federal government in American society.
Could the 2020 contest between President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden be one of the exceptions, an empowering election in every sense of the word?
If history is any guide, the answer hinges on whether the winning candidates victory satisfies three conditions.
First, the new or reelected president must run a change-oriented campaign, promising to pursue larger-than-usual policy innovations if elected.
Second, the president must win the election by a landslide, something along the lines of 400-plus electoral votes and at least 55% of the two-party popular vote.
Third, the president must have long coattails in the accompanying congressional elections, such that the party picks up a significant number of new seats. The message long coattails sends to members of Congress is that the presidents popularity may well affect their own political standing and therefore theyd be well-advised to follow the presidents lead on policy whenever possible.
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Attempts To Delay Or Deny Election Results
In November, Trump focused his efforts on trying to delay vote certifications at the county and state level. On December 2, Trump posted a 46-minute video to his social media in which he repeated his baseless claims that the election was “rigged” and fraudulent and called for either the state legislatures or the courts to overturn the results of the election and allow him to stay in office. He continued to apply pressure to elected Republicans in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in an unprecedented attempt to overturn the election result. Some commentators have characterized Trump’s actions as an attempted coup d’état or self-coup.
On December 15, the day after the electoral college vote, Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who was previously among those who would not recognize the election results, publicly accepted Biden’s win, saying, “Today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden.”
In a December 21 news conference, outgoing Attorney General William Barr disavowed several actions reportedly being considered by Trump, including seizing voting machines, appointing a special counsel to investigate voter fraud, and appointing one to investigate Hunter Biden.
How Do Republicans Feel About Trump
Polling is one indication of Trumps sway over the GOP. By the end of his presidency, he had an approval rating of just 38.6%, and an October 2021 Pew Research poll found that only 44% of Republicans want Trump to run again in 2024.
But his supporters are die-hards, and some happen to be party elites and major GOP donors. Despite Trump’s 2020 electoral loss and two impeachments, his rallies are still highly attended by enthusiastic participants. And, following Trump’s criticism of the Commission on Presidential Debates as biased against him during the 2020 election, the Republican National Committee signaled its plan to require its candidates to withdraw from presidential debates.
As Perry says, He has a solid 30% or so of the American people behind him seemingly no matter what.
For now, Trump is also maintaining strong fiscal support. At the start of 2022, his team announced that its various political committees had amassed $122 million in funding. In local, state, and federal elections, the candidate who spends more money on their campaign tends to win the election. So even though Trump has yet to officially announce his 2024 candidacy, entering with millions in cash would provide him with an advantage, covering major campaign expenses such as staff salaries, wide-reaching ads, and frequent travel to campaign in key areas.
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Trumps Approach: Long On Attitude Short On Strategy
Despite Trumps fighting words about competing with China, many Asian governments, broadly speaking, have viewed his administrations policies as inconsistent with this goal. Some leaders, notably in Southeast Asia, abhor Secretary of State Mike Pompeos stark us or them framing, preferring to view their region in balance-of-power rather than ideological terms. And Americas closest allies, especially Japan and Australia, loathe Trumps trade policies, not least his decision to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.
In the wake of American withdrawal, eleven countries completed the TPP without the United Statesin effect, setting the regions trade and investment standards without its largest economy and traditional standard setter. In a region whose business is business, that gap between American rhetoric and action has been a source of consternation to governments that view full-spectrum U.S. engagement as an essential balance to the rise of Chinese power.
Just take Southeast Asia, which the Trump administration viewed as ground zero of strategic competition with Beijing. In the last four weeks alone, Washington has picked trade fights with two strategically pivotal countriesVietnam, which it is investigating for alleged currency manipulation, and Thailand, whose duty-free trade privileges the Trump administration has just revoked.
Trump Pence Rivalry Intensifies As They Consider 2024 Runs
The two will hold dueling events in Arizona on Friday as they stump for rival candidates who offer dramatically different visions of the Republican Party in a critical battleground state. Days later, they will once again cross paths as they deliver major speeches on the same day in Washington, D.C.
The encounters mark a more confrontational phase in the fraught relationship between the former running mates and once close confidantes who could soon find themselves competing against one another in the 2024 GOP presidential primary if they both ultimately choose to run.
I think this is a continuation of the larger message that Pence is trying to embody here, which is the Republican Party should look to the future, said Scott Jennings, a longtime party strategist. This is going to be the existential question for the Republican Party: Are we going to listen to a slightly different view than Donald Trumps? Right now, the standard-bearer for this is Mike Pence.
That description marks a striking turnaround for Pence, who spent his four years in the White House as Trumps most loyal defender. But Trump turned on his vice president when Pence refused to go along with his unconstitutional efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, putting Pence in the crosshairs of a violent mob on Jan. 6.
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