Poll: Biden Trump Statistically Tied In Favorability
Donald Trump Trump urges GOP senators to vote against McConnell debt dealOn The Money Presented by NRHC Senate slowly walks back from debt disasterAdministration confirms it will restore national monuments to pre-Trump boundariesMORE are statistically tied when it comes to their favorability among U.S. voters, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey shared exclusively with The Hill on Monday.
Forty-eight percent of respondents say they have a positive view of Trump compared to 46 percent who say they have a favorable opinion of his successor. Bidens favorability is slightly underwater, however: 49 percent of those surveyed said they have an unfavorable view of the current president, while slightly less 47 percent report an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
The findings are a remarkable shift for Biden, who repeatedly outperformed Trumps favorability numbers throughout the early months of his presidency.
But multiple crises, including a surge in new COVID-19 infections in recent months and the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, have bruised public perceptions of Biden.
Fifty-one percent of respondents now say Trump was a better president than Biden, while 49 percent prefer the White Houses current occupant, the poll shows.
Since Trump lost the popular vote by 5 points, Trump getting 51 percent as a better president is actually an improvement from Election Day.
Fifty-five percent of those surveyed say that Mike Pence
Icymi: What Else Is Happening In The World
The CDC Director for a broader group than advisors recommended including the elderly, those with underlying medical conditions, and those whose work or institutional living situation puts them at increased risk.
Texas secretary of states office announced a forensic audit of the 2020 election results in four counties, shortly after Trump backed one.
Pennsylvanias attorney general is suing in the hopes of blocking a GOP attempt to audit the 2020 election results in the state.
Politico reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is warming to Herschel Walker and other controversial Republican Senate candidates backed by Trump.
Families of missing Black men plead for more resources and accountability from police like theyre seeing in the investigation into the death of Gabby Petito.
The former police officer convicted of killing George Floyd will appeal the verdict.
Opinion: Bidens Polling Numbers Are Even Worse Than They Appear
Democrats are rightly worried about President Bidens poor job approval ratings. A closer look at his ratings among independents shows Democrats should be even more worried than they are.
Bidens overall job approval ratings are bad enough. Only 45.1 percent of Americans approve of his performance per Mondays RealClearPolitics average 47.9 percent disapprove. That alone makes Biden less popular at this stage of his presidency than any president in the past 40 years except for Donald Trump.
Among independents, however, Biden is about as unpopular as Trump was at this stage in his presidency. An average of only 39 percent of independents approved of Bidens performance in the three polls taken between Sept. 18 and 26 that made data available for those voters 52 percent disapproved. Trumps comparable numbers among independents in three polls taken between Sept. 22 and 27, 2017, were 38 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval. That means Bidens minus-13 net job approval among independents is statistically identical to Trumps minus-12.
Biden won independents by 13 points in 2020. To go from plus-13 to minus-13 in less than a year is an epic disaster. Republicans are standing by, ready to pick up the pieces from a crumbling presidency.
Recommended Reading: Why Are Trumps Ratings Going Up
Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Collapsing But Where Will They Be In November
President Trump is collapsing in the polls. His approval rating is in the low 40s and dropping. Nationally, hes running behind Biden by nine points, according to FiveThirtyEight.coms average or by as much as 14 points in the latest Siena College/New York Times poll. Hes losing in key battleground states as well Biden has substantial leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, among other places.
If the election were held tomorrow, Trump would almost certainly lose.
But the election is not being held tomorrow. And a whole lot can happen in the next four and a half months.
Early polling was not indicative of what happened in 1976 or of 1968. It was not indicative of 1980 or 1992 or 2016, said Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster who has worked for Newt Gingrich and Pat Buchanan, among other clients. There have been so many cases where the numbers changed in the last days. What early polling does is tell us where were headed but not where well end up.
Consider the Gallup general election poll that gave Michael Dukakis a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush in late July 1988. That lead evaporated over the months that followed and he was defeated in November.
My advice to any candidate is dont count on the polls, Dukakis told me when I called him last week. Go out and organize in every one of the 50 states and take nothing for granted and keep driving and driving until election day.
So yeah, Democrats shouldn’t get complacent.
Absence Makes The Heart Grow Fonder
Americans tend to view presidents more favorably in retrospect than they do while in office, Gallup polling has shown.
In addition to leaving office, another factor has kept Trump from a continuous spotlight: Social media giants Twitter, Facebook and YouTube have all banned the former president from posting on their platforms, a decision they enacted shortly after his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in January. The companies have argued the move is necessary to prevent the spread of dangerous misinformation, though its raised questions about free speech and censorship on social media.
Trump has remained an active guest on conservative platforms, and he briefly posted thoughts to a personal blog. But stripped of his Twitter account and the White House megaphone, hes largely receded from mainstream attention.
Selzer said none of that appears to be hurting Trumps favorability numbers in Iowa.
It doesnt seem to be a case of out of sight out of mind, she said. Maybe its a little bit more of absence makes the heart grow fonder.
In a December 2018 Iowa Poll of registered Republicans, only 19% of respondents said they thought posting potentially inflammatory messages on Twitter on a regular basis was a good move for Trump. Far more 72% said doing so was a mistake.
Karen Moon, a 32-year-old Indianola resident and poll respondent, said she was never a fan of Trumps public persona.
She would definitely vote for him if he ran again for president, Moon said.
Recommended Reading: Will Trump Win In 2020
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Voxs German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administrations burst of policymaking. .
Still, Bidens approval slide coming amid indications Senate Democrats dont have the votes to pass a $3.5 trillion human infrastructure bill that was supposed to represent one of the presidents major legislative accomplishments is an inauspicious development for Democrats. Theyre heading into a midterm cycle, where the presidents party generally faces an uphill battle to retain control of the House, and with another challenge from Trump or a successor likely looming in 2024.
Clearly Trump was in a worse position four years ago than Biden is now, Easley said. But given the margins in the House and Senate, how much solace can the White House and the Biden administration take in that fact? I dont really think itll mean that much to them.
To get the 30,000-foot view of why Bidens approval rating has slid and what it means, Vox spoke with Easley a transcript of that conversation, lightly edited for length and clarity, follows.
Aaron Rupar
As we talk today , how have Bidens number held up since they first dipped below 50 percent last month?
Cameron Easley
Todays numbers, which are based on surveys conducted from the 12th through the 14th, we have his approval rating at 47 percent and his disapproval rating at 50 percent, so just about where it was when we wrote that story about his net approval rating dipping underwater for the first time.
Aaron Rupar
Aaron Rupar
The Claim: President Joe Bidens Approval Rating Is 39% And Lower Than Donald Trumps Ever Was
After the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings took a hit. But some online posts exaggerate the depth of the drop.
Text in reads, “Joe Biden’s approval falls to 39 percent, worse than Trump’s approval ever.” The post did not indicate which poll it’s referring to.
A similar post accumulated 46,000 likes in six days before it was deleted. Other claims in this vein have racked up hundreds of interactions on Facebook and Instagram, according to CrowdTangle, a social media insights tool.
The claim is misleading. While one poll did put Bidens approval rating at 39%, the polling average a more accurate measure of a president’s popularity put it higher. Experts say Biden’s approval rating, the lowest since he took office, is still higher than Trumps term low.
USA TODAY reached out to several social media users who shared the claim for comment.
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Trillions At Stake: Biden Meets With Democrats Little Progress On Big
President Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied in a new poll looking at a potential matchup in the 2024 election with Trump surging past Biden among independents.
If the election were held today, 40 percent of likely voters would punch Bidens ticket, and 40 percent would pick Trump, while 14 percent said they would choose another candidate, a Grinnell College National Poll released Wednesday found.
Both also registered strong support from their respective political parties with 80 percent of Republicans backing Trump and 87 percent of Democrats in Bidens corner.
But among independents, Trump has the edge with 45 percent to 28 percent for Biden.
Another 20 percent of independents said they would vote for someone else and 4 percent said they would not cast a ballot.
Neither Biden nor Trump has announced his candidacy for 2024.
The Grinnell survey and a Quinnipiac University National poll also show that Bidens job approval rating continues to fall.
Thirty-seven percent of American voters give Biden a thumbs down on his job performance while 52 percent approve down 1 percentage point from Oct. 6, the Quinnipiac poll revealed.
In May, 49 percent held a favorable view of Biden and 42 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him.
In Tuesdays Quinnipiac poll, 38 percent said favorable and 50 percent listed unfavorable.
Asked about Trump, 39 percent of Americans said they have a favorable view of him and 52 percent said unfavorable.
How Bidens Numbers Affect The Drama On Capitol Hill
And how do you translate Bidens political standing to the current legislative standoff on Capitol Hill?
We guarantee you some of the at-risk Democratic members have seen poll numbers that show them in dangerous territory, too.
By the way, we still dont have an answer from President Biden to the questions we posed yesterday: Should Mondays infrastructure vote go forward?
And if so, should all Democrats vote for it?
Thats a bad sign for Democrats who want to see the infrastructure legislation pass on Monday.
It appears the partisan review of Maricopa Countys 2020 election results shows that Joe Biden won Arizona.
Again.
NBC News: Maricopa County, Arizona, said Thursday that a draft report from a company in a contentious, partisan review of November’s election has confirmed the winners … NBC affiliate KPNX of Phoenix said that it obtained a copy of the report and that the review widens Biden’s victory margin by 360 votes.
Every time Trump and his supporters have been given a forum to make their case, they have swung and missed, GOP election lawyer Ben Ginsberg told the Washington Post.
If Trump and his supporters cant prove it here with the process theyve designed then they cant prove it anywhere, he added.
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Nbc News Poll: Steve Kornacki Breaks Down Bidens Approval Rating
Its the first time since July 2019 when party supporters have outnumbered Trump supporters in our poll, and its also the first time that party supporters have reached 50 percent on this question.
Strikingly, these numbers are coming as the perception of Trumps pull within his party couldnt be stronger.
GOP politicians are still trekking to Mar-A-Lago. Theyre clamoring for his endorsement. And House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy continues to hug Trump, even after what happened on Jan. 6.
But close to 100 days after leaving office, Trumps standing nationally as well within his own party is weaker today than it was three months ago.
Now we know what youre probably thinking: Since the 2020 polls understated Trumps support, isnt this poll maybe also understating his current support?
And you could be right.
But say you improved his favorable/unfavorable score by 5 points in both directions to 37 percent positive, 50 percent negative.
Thats still a rough set of numbers for someone many Republicans continue to view as the leader of their party.
Here are some other numbers to chew on from our new NBC News poll: There is a significant difference in political attitudes between those who consume conservative media and those who consume everything else.
Percentage with very positive view of Trump
- All adults: 21 percent.
- Conservative media diet: 46 percent.
- Liberal media diet : 8 percent.
- Social media : 21 percent.
- Print, broadcast TV, local news : 11 percent.
Approval Index1500 Likely Voters +/
Strongly Disapprove
Current indexrating
Some readers wonder how we come up with our job approval ratings for the president since they often dont show as dramatic a change as some other pollsters do. It depends on how you ask the question and whom you ask.
To get a sense of longer-term job approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology .
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members.
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Americans Prefer Democrats To Control Congress But With A Big Caveat
On the question of which party’s candidate people would vote for if next year’s elections for Congress were held today, respondents chose Democrats by an 8-point margin, 46% to 38%.
That is the kind of margin Democrats have traditionally needed to do well in congressional elections, given that Democratic voters are typically packed more tightly in districts and Republicans control redistricting in more places in the country.
But Democrats’ advantage on the question doesn’t necessarily mean it will translate to congressional control, Miringoff noted.
That’s because Democrats in the survey have huge leads in the Northeast and the West, where they already have big advantages in congressional seats, he said. But in the Midwest and the South, where a lot of the swing districts are, Republicans lead.
What’s also notable is just how much partisanship has taken deep root throughout the country. Just 2% of Democrats and 1% of Republicans said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate of a different party.
All politics now truly appears to be national.
