What To Monitor: Polling Data
Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now , candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. Thats why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.
As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.
For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:
- Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
- FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.
Donald Trump 2020 Presidential Campaign
|Donald J. Trump for President|
The Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign was an unsuccessful re-election campaign for the 2020 United States presidential election by incumbent RepublicanDonald Trump, who had taken office on January 20, 2017.
Trump refused to accept the results he and his allies made false and disproven claims of fraud, pressured elections officials, filed dozens of lawsuits , and directly attempted to overturn the results at the county, state, and federal level. This culminated in the January 6, 2021, attack on the United States Capitol, for which Trump was impeached a second time. The day after the attack, Trump formally conceded the election without mentioning president-elect Biden by name, in a video posted on .
Researchers estimate that the rallies Trump held from June 20 through September 22 caused more than 30,000 diagnosed cases of COVID-19 and more than 700 deaths.
Could We See Another Trump Family Member Run In 2024
A wide range of candidates are testing the waters, from moderates like .
But Mr Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr, has become a particular favourite with the president’s loyal supporters on the campaign trail.
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White Nationalists And Charlottesville Rally
On August 13, 2017, Trump condemned violence “on many sides” after a gathering of hundreds of white nationalists in Charlottesville, Virginia, the previous day turned deadly. A white supremacist drove a car into a crowd of counter-protesters, killing one woman and injuring 19 others. According to Sessions, that action met the definition of domestic terrorism. During the rally there had been other violence, as some counter-protesters charged at the white nationalists with swinging clubs and mace, throwing bottles, rocks, and paint. Trump did not expressly mention Neo-Nazis, white supremacists, or the alt-right movement in his remarks on August 13, but the following day condemned “the KKK, neo-Nazis, white supremacists, and other hate groups“. On August 15, he again blamed “both sides”.
Recap: Trump Vs Biden Odds
When it came to the 2020 Biden vs. Trump odds, some sites had head-to-head matchups, while others simply had odds on the Presidential winner. At Bovada, the race looked like this down the stretch:
- Donald Trump +120
Meanwhile, at BetOnline, the showdown also favored Biden:
- Donald Trump -110
- Joe Biden -110
MyBookie had the starkest contrast with the best payouts for Trump in the final months of betting:
- Donald Trump -125
- Joe Biden -105
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Can Donald Trump Run Again In 2024
Yes, Donald Trump can run for re-election in 2024.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
Ja’ron Smith: I Have Seen Trump’s True Conscience
The most important speech of the recently-concluded Republican National Convention wasn’t the meandering and patchwork one delivered by President Donald Trump on Thursday night. It was the speech introducing the President by Ivanka Trump. And these 28 words in particular:
“I recognize that my dad’s communication style is not to everyone’s taste. And I know his tweets can feel a bit … unfiltered. But the results speak for themselves.”
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Cnn Correspondent Maps Out The States That Have Or Will Ban Abortion
When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably — and immediately — ask some version of this question: “Is he going to run again? And can he win?”
The Point: Trump is the least predictable politician, well, ever. Which means that you can never bank of anything with him — including another run for president. But, man does it look and sound like he is going to run again. And, yes, he can win.
The Geek Psychologist Job Approval
My re-election model estimates the chance that Donald Trump will be elected to a second term using current and historical job approval ratings from Gallups telephone-based daily tracking poll. I obtained all Gallup polling data from the American Presidency Project.
The Gallup tracking poll is particularly useful because its been around for a long time, and theres a good amount of historical data to draw upon for the purpose of comparing Trumps current job approval numbers with the job approval numbers for previous presidents.
In fact, George Gallup was the first to conduct presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. in the late 1930s. As such, the Gallup organization possesses job approval ratings for the last 13 administrations, stretching all the way back to July 1941, during Franklin Roosevelts third consecutive term in office and before his re-election in 1944 to a fourth term. Unfortunately though, Gallups approval numbers for Roosevelt are of limited use because, due to World War II, no polling was conducted in 1944.
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The Ukraine War Cuts Many Ways
While most of those I encountered had relatively clear views about domestic issues, the Ukraine War was another matter. That conflict perplexes many in the heartland because they are not sure what it means for America or how it affects them personally. I didnt encounter anyone who had a positive view of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Everyone sees him as a thug who terrorizes his own people and destabilizes global affairs. But they are not sure how the war will play out and what US involvement means for their lives.
In the short-run, the Ukrainian conflict has been a boon to American farmers. With Ukraine grain blocked from the world market by Russia, grain prices have gone way up. Although American grocery shoppers are paying higher prices, US farmers are selling their stored wheat and corn at record levels. Of course, they recognize some of their financial gains are being lost at the grocery store and gas pumps, and through higher inflation on a wide range of farm costs. But U.S. agriculture is doing well due to grain supply restrictions.
How Does Lichtman’s 13 Keys Model Work
The 13 keys to the White House is an index of true or false responses to a set of questions, based on a simple pattern recognition algorithm.
“True” answers favour the re-election of the incumbent, while “false” answers favour the challenger.
When six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
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Retrospective: Odds Of Trump Being Reelected In 2020
Donald Trumps reelection odds were favorable until April when it became clear that his responses to Black Lives Matter protests and the Coronavirus were not going over well with a majority of bettors.
At that time, Joe Biden took the lead in the 2020 Presidential election odds and remained the favorite through his win in November.
Can I Bet On Donald Trump 2024 Election Odds Now
If you want to make as much money wagering on The Donald as possible, nows the time to place your wagers on his chances to win the 2024 Presidential election. Trumps 2024 GOP primary odds also hold a lot of value, as hes trending at +400 at Bovada and +1400 at BetOnline.
For the general election in 2024, Trump payouts are even better. At BetOnline, he has odds of +800 to win, while at BetOnline, he is trending at +3300. Obviously, if you want to wager on The Donald right now, you should do so at BetOnline.
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When Will Trump Answer The Big 2024 Question
The field of would-be Republican candidates remains frozen while the former president decides his next moves.
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Last week, during a 51-minute interview on The John Fredericks Show, a radio program syndicated across Virginia, former President Donald J. Trump dodged a half-dozen opportunities to say whether he is planning to run for president once again in 2024.
Mr. Fredericks, who alongside his radio gig also served as a chairman of Mr. Trumps campaigns in Virginia, began questions with If youre inaugurated as president again in 2025, and I think youre going to run and win in 2024. He asked, How many seats do the Republicans have to win in 2022 to inspire you to run in 2024?
Hard-hitting journalism this was not.
Still, it did cut to the heart of the biggest question in Republican politics: When will Mr. Trump announce his plans for 2024?
For months the best working theory had been that he would wait as long as possible, both to freeze the rest of the potential 2024 Republican field and to keep as much attention as possible on himself, his endorsements and political proclamations.
All of that puts him on the same page as much of todays Republican electorate.
A potential third Trump campaign, started more than three years before the next presidential election, could refocus all of his partys energy onto himself and away from the right-wing cultural issues other Republicans see as political winners.
How Could Legislation Help Trump Win In 2024
From just January to October 2021, 33 voter suppression laws were enacted across 19 states. Voter suppression efforts can look like enforcing stricter ID checks, making it harder to vote early or by mail, and restricting those convicted of felonies from voting.
Of such laws, Perry says, These, particularly, are thought to hurt the kinds of people who would tend to vote against Donald Trump. That would be minorities, people of color, people in poorer categories, and socioeconomic status.
Those communities turned out for Biden in unprecedented numbers during the 2020 election and were crucial to his victory. The passage of new voter suppression laws designed to disenfranchise these same communities, and Congresss failure to pass federal legislation protecting the right to vote, puts that support at risk.
Then theres the wave of election subversion bills. In 2021, lawmakers across the country introduced more than 180 bills that would shift election authority from the people to the legislators themselves. Says Perry, You have these new policies coming to the forefront among Republicans whereby the legislature would be allowed to review the popular will and be able to overturn it.
These bills have either passed or been introduced in eight of the 13 swing states, including several that Biden won in 2020. These laws, introduced and championed by Republican legislators, stand to bolster Trump if he is selected as the GOP nominee.
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Transparency Data Availability And Record Keeping
The Washington Post reported in May 2017, “a wide variety of information that until recently was provided to the public, limiting access, for instance, to disclosures about workplace violations, energy efficiency, and animal welfare abuses” had been removed or tucked away. The Obama administration had used the publication of enforcement actions taken by federal agencies against companies as a way to name and shame companies that engaged in unethical and illegal behaviors.
The Trump administration stopped the longstanding practice of logging visitors to the White House, making it difficult to tell who has visited the White House. In July 2018, CNN reported that the White House had suspended the practice of publishing public summaries of Trump’s phone calls with world leaders, bringing an end to a common exercise from previous administrations.
Government Size And Regulations
The administration imposed far fewer financial penalties against banks and major companies accused of wrong-doing relative to the Obama administration.
In the first six weeks of his tenure, Trump suspended or in a few cases, revoked more than 90 regulations. In early 2017, Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to slash two existing regulations for every new one . A September 2017 Bloomberg BNA review found that due to unclear wording in the order and the large proportion of regulations it exempts, the order had had little effect since it was signed. The Trump OMB released an analysis in February 2018 indicating the economic benefits of regulations significantly outweigh the economic costs. The administration ordered one-third of government advisory committees for federal agencies eliminated, except for committees that evaluate consumer product safety or committees that approve research grants.
Trump ordered a four-month government-wide hiring freeze of the civilian work force at the start of his term. He said he did not intend to fill many of the governmental positions that were still vacant, as he considered them unnecessary there were nearly 2,000 vacant government positions.
The administration ended the requirement that nonprofits, including political advocacy groups who collect so-called dark money, disclose the names of large donors to the IRS the Senate voted to overturn the administration’s rule change.
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